How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races
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Bill Connelly
On Oct. 26, 1985, UTEP pulled one of the biggest upsets in WAC history, holding BYU’s Robbie Bosco to 15-of-35 passing with four interceptions and upsetting the No. 7 Cougars — the defending national champions — in a 23-16 shocker. BYU had won 30 of its previous 31 games heading into the game, and UTEP had begun the season 0-6.
Until Saturday, that was the last time a team that was 0-4 or worse had knocked off a top-10 opponent. But almost 40 years after that wild upset at the Sun Bowl, a sparse Rose Bowl crowd witnessed an upset under similar circumstance. UCLA’s 42-37 win over Penn State was the most stunning result of the 2025 season to date, and combined with Florida’s 29-21 win over Texas in The Swamp — a much more normal upset, as far as those things go — it severely wounded the College Football Playoff odds of what were the top two teams in the preseason AP poll.
The rest of Week 6 was more about missed upset opportunities than shockers, but taking down the preseason top two is quite the paradigm shifter. Let’s look back at the most important developments of Week 6.
The biggest upset in 40 years (by one definition, at least)
Each week in my Friday preview column, I search for what I call the Chaos Superfecta, in which I look for four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. This past Friday, I declared that we would be taking down a Big Ten favorite, noting that there was only a 55% chance that Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska all would win. As it turns out, I wasn’t aiming high enough. UCLA’s pregame win probability, per SP+, was 2.1%; the Bruins’ upset was actually too chaotic to be considered for the Chaos Superfecta.
We know how huge upsets tend to play out. The losing favorite turns the ball over too many times (usually with a healthy dose of bad luck), settles for too many field goals and bottoms out on third or fourth down. They win a majority of the plays but lose the wrong ones.
Penn State did lose a fumble to start the second half, and the Nittany Lions’ combined 5-for-12 performance on third and fourth down wasn’t terrible but wasn’t amazing either. But the Nittany Lions produced a 52.6% success rate*, well above the national average of 44.8%, and they averaged a healthy 6.3 yards per play.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
Drew Allar, so maligned for big-game performances through the years, was quite good, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and rushing 10 times (not including one sack) for 89 yards. Aside from an early three-and-out, PSU moved the ball well all game until an all-timer of a fourth-and-short stop by UCLA’s defense in the final minute.
The culprit, instead, was a Penn State defense that has been as good as virtually any in the nation over the past four seasons.
Since the start of 2022, only five teams have gained at least 430 yards on the Nittany Lions: No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State in 2022, No. 11 Ole Miss in 2023, No. 1 Oregon in 2024 … and UCLA on Saturday. That’s the same UCLA team that gained just 326 yards on New Mexico in Week 3 and 220 against Utah in its season opener.
Well, I guess it wasn’t the same UCLA. This one had Jerry Neuheisel calling plays after offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri followed fired head coach DeShaun Foster out the door this past week. Neuheisel’s notice was short enough that he hadn’t even mastered the headset yet.
UCLA OC Jerry Neuheisel had never practiced with the headset before today’s game – but it all worked out 😂 pic.twitter.com/oVelZaEa7c
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2025
Neuheisel called the game like UCLA played it: with nothing to lose. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has spent much of his career looking as though he’s torn between showing off his athleticism and trying to be a pro-style QB prototype by staying in the pocket and making plays with his arm. That has resulted in far too much indecision and far too many sacks over the last season and a half. But he was unlocked Saturday, taking his customary three sacks but otherwise rushing 13 times for 150 yards and three touchdowns. He moved the chains on third down four times with his arm and four times with his legs.
The Bruins sliced down the field for a touchdown to start the game, recovered a surprise onside kick and took a 10-point lead before Penn State could actually touch the ball. They outgained the shell-shocked Nittany Lions by a 285-92 margin in the first half, in part because PSU got the ball only three times, and took a 27-7 lead into halftime. But when the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown, then blocked a punt for another score, to cut the lead to 27-21 midway through the third quarter, it was fair to assume what was going to happen next: Here’s where the slow-starting favorite shifts into gear and wins by two touchdowns, right? Even ESPN’s in-game win probability model shifted to favor the Nittany Lions.
Instead, UCLA immediately drove 75 yards for a touchdown, and when PSU scored in response, UCLA went another 75 yards for a score. Things got tense late, and the Nittany Lions, down 42-35 in the final minute, had a chance to tie the game up. But Scooter Jackson led a host of defenders in stuffing Allar on fourth-and-2, and the Bruins saw out the unbelievable upset.
Even if you had told me in advance that UCLA would win this game, I would have given “Allar plays well, but the defense gets torched, and the Nittany Lions lose at the line of scrimmage on almost every key occasion” betting odds of about +1000. Penn State was without injured star linebacker Tony Rojas, but my goodness, the school didn’t spend unearthly sums of money prying defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State to give up 42 points to UCLA.
This was only James Franklin’s third loss as a favorite of 14 or more points at Penn State — he’s now 56-3 in such games, a 0.949 win percentage that is better than almost any other team in the country. Maybe the Nittany Lions were just due an absolute nonsense performance; maybe no one can limit uncertainty to such an upset-proof degree.
Regardless, this is a devastating loss. With back-to-back games against Ohio State (second in SP+) and Indiana (third) coming up in November, the Nittany Lions were already looking at probably needing to at least split those games to feel good about their playoff chances. Now they probably have to beat both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, and with their SP+ rating falling off a cliff following Saturday’s result, they’re projected to have only a 1.6% chance of winning out to reach 10-2.
This was the all-in year for Penn State, with the school ponying up not only for Knowles but also to keep stars such as Allar, running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton in town for one more season. Now their most likely record, per SP+, is 7-5, and their Big Ten title odds are currently 11th in the conference, lower than those of even Iowa or Maryland.
Big Ten title odds, per SP+
Ohio State 26.9%
Oregon 25.8%
Indiana 17.7%
Michigan 9.7%
USC 5.1%
Washington 4.3%
Illinois 3.6%
Nebraska 2.9%
Iowa 1.3%
Maryland 1.2%
Penn State 0.6%
Oof.
Florida over Texas, aka the rise of the disappointing QB
One of the stories of September was how many high-upside quarterbacks were falling miles short of expectations. When I ranked all the power-conference quarterbacks last week, Texas’ Arch Manning ranked 41st, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik ranked 54th, UCLA’s Iamaleava ranked 58th and Florida’s DJ Lagway ranked 61st. All were mega-blue-chip recruits, Klubnik and Iamaleava had piloted playoff teams last season, Lagway had flashed signs of true-freshman brilliance down the stretch and Manning began this season as the betting favorite for the Heisman. All were among the bottom 40% of P4 QBs.
On Saturday, Iamaleava torched Penn State, and Klubnik went 22-of-24 for 254 yards and four touchdowns as Clemson absolutely pasted North Carolina. Lagway, meanwhile, drastically outdueled Manning as Florida toppled Texas.
Against what had been the No. 1 defense in the country, per SP+, Lagway completed 21 of 28 passes for 298 yards and two scores, and after suffering far too many sacks and turnovers in September, he threw one pick with no sacks. Jadan Baugh rushed for 107 yards, and blue-chip freshman Dallas Wilson caught six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including this utterly ridiculous 55-yarder.
0:25
Freshman Dallas Wilson makes unbelievable 55-yard TD catch
Dallas Wilson is able to stay inbounds after the catch and runs in for the Florida touchdown.
The Gators averaged 7.0 yards per play with a 48% success rate against a defense that seemed even more elite than Penn State’s. Only two turnovers and two field goals kept Florida under 30 points. Lagway has consistently pressed this season, trying far too hard to make something happen for a struggling team. On Saturday, he was wonderfully in control.
Manning, meanwhile, had yet another frustrating game. He did complete passes of 22, 26, 33, 38 and 42 yards, with a 36-yard run to boot, but he was just 16-of-29 for the game and threw two picks with six sacks. He continues to lose his footwork and misfire on loads of passes when pressured, he continues to get absolutely no help from his offensive line, and he continues to trust his athleticism too much to bail him out of trouble.
Texas has played five games this season: three against teams ranked 97th or worse in SP+ and two against teams ranked 33rd or better. Texas is 3-0 against the former but 0-2 against the latter. Life in the SEC gives the team plenty of chances to stockpile marquee wins if it gets its act together. But the Longhorns have fallen to 20th in SP+, thanks to an offense that currently ranks 53rd, and saying they still have 5-0 Oklahoma, 5-0 Texas A&M, 4-1 Georgia and 5-1 Vanderbilt on the schedule sounds far more threatening than hopeful. At this point, the Longhorns’ most likely projected record is 7-5, and they’re currently 10th on the SEC title odds list.
SEC title odds, per SP+
Ole Miss 17.0%
Alabama 15.5%
Oklahoma 15.5%
Missouri 11.7%
Texas A&M 9.9%
Georgia 7.3%
Tennessee 6.0%
LSU 5.7%
Vanderbilt 3.3%
Texas 2.8%
The Horns will have a shot at an immediate rebound against Oklahoma in Dallas on Saturday, but any hope Texas fans can derive from their team likely facing Sooners backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is offset by the fact that OU ranks second in defensive SP+, 16 spots higher than the Florida defense that just made Manning’s life hell.
Missed opportunities in Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa
Turnovers have been at the root of many upsets through the years, but turnovers also prevented a couple of underdogs from making favorites sweat Saturday.
No. 10 Alabama 30, No. 16 Vanderbilt 14
A lot of Saturday’s Bama-Vandy game in Tuscaloosa played close to the typical upset script. Alabama moved the ball with ruthless efficiency overall but suffered a few negative plays and an ill-timed turnover and scored touchdowns on just one of its first five red zone trips. The Crimson Tide let Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt hang around in exactly the type of way teams often end up ruing. But unlike last season, Vandy couldn’t hold up its end of the upset bargain.
Pavia lost a fumble at the Bama 8 as the Commodores were attempting to expand an early 7-0 lead, then Pavia was picked off by Keon Sabb at the Bama 7 early in the fourth quarter, when Vandy, down 20-14, had a chance to take the lead again. As efficient and gutsy as Pavia can be, you can’t waste opportunities like that. Bama scored 10 late points to pull away.
Now, Bama was easily the superior team. The Tide outgained the Dores by 153 yards and 0.9 yards per play, with a better success rate (49.3% to 46.3%) and more big plays (gains of 20-plus yards on 10.1% of their snaps to Vandy’s 5.6%). Jam Miller, who missed most of September because of injury, rushed 22 times for 136 yards, and Ty Simpson‘s primary receiver trio — Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton — combined for 15 catches and 246 yards. But they left the door ajar with their red zone failures, and it felt almost surprising when Vandy didn’t take advantage.
In the past two weeks, Bama has beaten Georgia for a second straight year and avenged last year’s loss to Vandy. The challenges are only beginning — the Tide’s next two opponents (Missouri and Tennessee) are each in the SP+ top 10, and both LSU (17th) and Oklahoma (fifth) will visit Tuscaloosa in November — but these were two huge hurdles to clear, and they’re in good shape in the SEC race because of it.
No. 3 Miami 28, No. 18 Florida State 22
Through the first four games of 2025, Florida State might have had the best scripted plays in college football. Over the first 15 plays of a game, the Seminoles were averaging 10.5 yards per play, first in the country. For that matter, their first four snaps Saturday night gained 51 yards as they quickly drove into Miami’s red zone. But the momentum ceased. Over their next 37 snaps, they averaged just 3.5 yards per play with two turnovers. And after a third turnover, they found themselves down 28-3.
Without the turnovers, however, they might have had a chance. The FSU defense did its part, more or less, losing receivers Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels for a quartet of big gains but otherwise allowing just 3.3 yards per play over 55 snaps and forcing five punts with three three-and-outs. Miami scored just enough that, when FSU’s offense finally got going late, the Noles couldn’t quite catch up, but without the self-inflicted wounds, the ending might have been much more interesting. Regardless, after a tough overtime loss to Virginia last week — the Cavaliers beat Louisville in OT as well Saturday — FSU didn’t give itself a shot at a rebound opportunity.
At the heart of FSU’s sudden regression has been a relative loss of form for quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Even as the Noles began the season brilliantly, I couldn’t shake the memory of last year, when Castellanos followed a brilliant start at Boston College with a collapse.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2024: 83.5 Total QBR, 64.8% completion rate, 9.5 yards per dropback, 8.5% sack rate
Rest of the season: 17.9 Total QBR, 59.8% completion rate, 5.9 yards per dropback, 11.6% sack rate
Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn fit beautifully together, and his ceiling is higher at FSU than it was at BC. But after an almost perfect three-game start, it appears opponents are once again adjusting well to his unique skill set. Virginia and Miami both hemmed him in and forced him to throw more passes instead of scrambling for downfield yards, and it limited his effectiveness.
Castellanos’ first three games of 2025: 92.5 Total QBR, 71.1% completion rate, 13.8 yards per dropback, 0.0% sack rate
Last two games: 58.9 Total QBR, 55.8% completion rate, 6.3 yards per dropback, 4.9% sack rate
It’s still baffling that Bama didn’t understand the assignment in the season opener and allowed Castellanos to repeatedly escape the pocket, but Virginia and Miami put him in more awkward situations. FSU should still score plenty of points and win plenty of games — SP+ gives them a 66% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is a massive rebound after last year’s 2-10 collapse. But any hopes of an ACC title charge or playoff bid are pretty much toast.
ACC title odds, per SP+
Miami 32.9%
Duke 15.7%
Georgia Tech 13.4%
Virginia 12.4%
Louisville 9.4%
SMU 6.6%
Pitt 5.2%
Florida State 1.2%
FSU fans probably would have welcomed an 8-4 record before the season began, but the win over Bama set a bar too high for the Seminoles to clear.
Cincinnati over Iowa State and the new Big 12 race
No. 11 Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Hey, guess what: Texas Tech looked fantastic again. Even while settling for too many field goals (like Alabama), the Red Raiders still led previously unbeaten Houston by at least 12 points for the game’s final 46 minutes, more than doubled the Cougars’ yardage (552-267) and cruised to victory. They’re projected favorites by double digits in every remaining regular-season game, per SP+, and have a 36% chance of reaching 12-0. They have better conference title odds than any other power-conference team.
Big 12 title odds, per SP+
Texas Tech 38.2%
BYU 12.7%
Cincinnati 10.0%
Utah 9.8%
Arizona State 7.2%
TCU 5.1%
Arizona 5.0%
Iowa State 4.4%
Kansas 3.9%
Overall, the Big 12 slate was as chaotic as ever, with three games decided by one score — including a last-second goal-line stand for Kansas (27-20 over UCF) and a last-minute field goal for Baylor (35-34 over Kansas State). Unbeaten BYU didn’t look amazing against West Virginia on Friday night but never really had to sweat either, and Baylor, TCU and Kansas were able to overcome early-season losses and remain in the title race.
Cincinnati 38, No. 14 Iowa State 30
Iowa State couldn’t remain unbeaten, however. The Cyclones allowed points on all of Cincinnati’s first-half drives, fell behind 31-7 and couldn’t get closer than nine points until the final two minutes. Cincy’s Evan Pryor and Tawee Walker combined for 167 rushing yards in the first half alone, quarterback Brendan Sorsby did Sorsby things (214 passing yards, 64 rushing yards), and Cincinnati won its fourth straight game since a Week 1 heartbreaker against Nebraska. This wasn’t a flawless performance — the Bearcats committed a mind-numbing run of penalties early in the fourth quarter and gained just 53 yards in their first 16 second-half snaps before putting the game away with a long Caleb Goodie touchdown — but it established their spot in the title race, and if the defense can more frequently perform as it did in the first half Saturday, they could remain in the race for a while.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Old Dominion: up 5.2 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 65th to 50th)
Ball State: up 4.6 points (from 129th to 126th)
UConn: up 4.5 points (from 77th to 66th)
Florida: up 4.3 points (from 47th to 33rd)
New Mexico State: up 4.2 points (from 128th to 121st)
Pitt: up 4.1 points (from 41st to 30th)
UCLA: up 4.1 points (from 100th to 87th)
Northwestern: up 4.0 points (from 80th to 71st)
Akron: up 3.7 points (from 131st to 128th)
Notre Dame: up 3.6 points (from 19th to 8th)
Florida, UCLA and Northwestern all enjoyed course corrections after strong performances, and SP+ was particularly impressed with what Notre Dame did to Boise State — by the stats, the Irish’s 28-7 win looked like a 33-point win. But can we talk about Old Dominion for a second? Quarterback Colton Joseph is averaging 15 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per carry and is up to 17th in Total QBR, and the 5-1 Monarchs’ only blemish was a competitive loss against Indiana. They beat Virginia Tech, and their average score against three non-power-conference opponents is 41-7. They play James Madison in two weeks in what is quickly becoming one of the biggest Group of 5 games of the season.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Penn State: down 6.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 4th to 16th)
Mississippi State: down 5.0 points (from 27th to 43rd)
Minnesota: down 4.5 points (from 45th to 60th)
Vanderbilt: down 4.1 points (from 11th to 21st)
Boston College: down 4.1 points (from 75th to 86th)
Oklahoma State: down 4.1 points (from 103rd to 116th)
North Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 86th to 101st)
Coastal Carolina: down 4.0 points (from 123rd to 129th)
Iowa State: down 3.9 points (from 26th to 37th)
Florida International: down 3.9 points (from 121st to 127th)
We saw a number of terribly disappointing teams continuing to fall this week — Boston College, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Coastal — but it probably isn’t a surprise to see which team leads this list. Penn State still ranks 16th overall but only because it takes a while to fall from near the top.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (17-of-24 passing for 166 yards and two touchdowns, plus 150 non-sack rushing yards and three TDs against Penn State).
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (23-of-27 passing for 326 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota).
3. Eli Heidenreich, Navy (eight catches for 243 yards and three touchdowns against Air Force).
4. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (19-of-22 passing for 390 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Purdue).
5. Jakobe Thomas, Miami (5 tackles, a sack, an interception, two pass breakups and a forced fumble against Florida State).
6. Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (17-of-30 passing for 315 yards and four touchdowns, plus 67 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Coastal Carolina).
7. Blake Horvath, Navy (20-of-26 passing for 339 yards and three touchdowns, plus 130 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Air Force).
8. Ty Simpson, Alabama (23-of-31 passing for 340 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 21 non-sack rushing yards against Vanderbilt).
9. Carnell Tate, Ohio State (nine catches for 183 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota).
10. DJ Lagway, Florida (21-of-28 passing for 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against Texas).
Iamaleava was the obvious choice this week, but Sayin is starting to make an admittedly easy job — throwing to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — look really, really easy. In four games since the Buckeyes’ win over Texas, he has completed 88 of 106 passes (83%!) for 1,187 yards with 14 touchdowns and three picks, none in the past two games. He can still be fooled occasionally (which makes sense since he’s a redshirt freshman), but it’s becoming increasingly rare.
Honorable mention:
• David Bailey, Texas Tech (3 tackles — all TFLs, 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a QB hurry against Houston).
• Carson Beck, Miami (20-of-27 passing for 241 yards and four touchdowns against Florida State).
• Hank Beatty, Illinois (five catches for 186 yards and a touchdown against Purdue).
• Jordan Gant, Akron (32 carries for 176 yards, plus 28 receiving yards and a touchdown against Central Michigan).
• Mason Heintschel, Pitt (30-of-41 passing for 323 yards and four touchdowns, plus 42 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
• Cashius Howell, Texas A&M (3 tackles, all sacks, and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Cade Klubnik, Clemson (22-of-24 passing for 254 yards and four touchdowns against North Carolina).
• Jam Miller, Alabama (22 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, plus eight receiving yards against Vanderbilt).
• Naeten Mitchell, New Mexico State (10 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 pass breakups and a pick-six against Sam Houston).
Through six weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (24 points)
2. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
3T. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
3T. Taylen Green, Arkansas (15)
5. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
6T. Jonah Coleman, Washington (10)
6T. Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (10)
6T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (10)
6T. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (10)
6T. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (10)
With four top-10 appearances in the past five weeks, Ty Simpson, the No. 4 overall betting favorite, has built a bit of a cushion for himself as we approach the midway point of the season. (Betting favorite Carson Beck has yet to make an appearance on our list, which is odd.) Meanwhile … hello there, Luke Altmyer! He has finished second and fourth in the past two weeks while going a combined 39-of-48 for 618 yards and three touchdowns. Since getting stomped by Indiana, the Illinois offense has been nearly unstoppable.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. UCLA 42, No. 7 Penn State 37. Obviously.
2-3. FCS: Georgetown 27, Morgan State 24; Division II: West Liberty 47, West Virginia State 41. The smaller-school ranks gave us a pair of Hail Mary-esque finishes this week.
First, after watching an early 14-0 lead turn into a late 24-21 deficit, Georgetown’s Dez Thomas II found Jimmy Kibble for a 49-yard score to take down Morgan State at the buzzer.
HAIL MARY TO KIBBLE FOR THE WIN!#HoyaSaxa #HoyaBold #DefendTheDistrict #SISU https://t.co/CLGmxgiUPv pic.twitter.com/C2VrowGbMW
— Georgetown Football (@HoyasFB) October 4, 2025
Then, at the end of a 40-point fourth quarter that had already given us an 80-yard Antevious Jackson-to-Hunter Patterson touchdown pass, Jackson found Osama Hurst for 40 yards to turn a tie game into a West Liberty win.
BALLGAME! West Liberty beats West Virginia State on the final play of the game – a 40-yard TD pass from Antevious Jackson to Osama Hurst. Hilltoppers 47, Yellow Jackets 41. #MECFB pic.twitter.com/8exKcZ1yLF
— Mountain East Conf. (@TheMountainEast) October 4, 2025
4. Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30. Oof, Texas State. The Bobcats’ defense mostly shut Arkansas State down for three quarters and took three separate leads in the fourth. But ASU drove the length of the field to tie each time, and when Lincoln Pare scored to give Texas State the lead with a minute left, Tyler Robles missed the PAT after a poor snap. That opened the door, and Jaylen Raynor‘s short touchdown with seven seconds left — plus Clune Van Andel‘s PAT — gave the Red Wolves an upset win to start Sun Belt play.
5. Baylor 35, Kansas State 34. OOF, K-State. The Wildcats have now lost four games by a combined 13 points. They led this one 31-17 with nine minutes left and were driving to basically put the game away, but Jacob Redding‘s 66-yard pick-six with 4:28 left gave the Bears a sudden lead. Luis Rodriguez‘s 22-yard field goal made it 34-32 KSU, but Connor Hawkins booted in a 53-yarder at the buzzer, and Baylor moved to 2-1 in Big 12 play.
6. Washington 24, Maryland 20. I’m not going to lie: I stopped paying attention to this one when Maryland went up 20-0. Apparently Maryland did too.
7-8. Division III: No. 5 Wisconsin-La Crosse 23, No. 10 Wisconsin-Whitewater 20 (2OT); No. 17 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 21, No. 12 Wisconsin-River Falls 17. You know how I’m always nagging you about keeping up with the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference in Division III? If the first week of this year’s title race is any indication, the nagging isn’t going to cease anytime soon. The conference featured a pair of ranked-versus-ranked matchups, and both were thrillers.
After nearly 60 minutes of defensive dominance in Oshkosh, the offenses perked up late. Kaleb Blaha’s 2-yard run with 1:21 left capped a 92-yard drive and gave River Falls a 17-14 lead, but Oshkosh drove 66 yards in eight plays, and Quentin Keene’s 7-yard strike to Clayton Schwalbe gave the Titans a last-second win. But that was the mere undercard: The headliner in Whitewater, played in front of 20,167 — the second-largest on-campus crowd ever for a Division III game — saw La Crosse overcome a 17-0 halftime deficit and send the game to overtime with a late Gabe Lynch touchdown. Overtime was a field goal festival, but after Christian Powell recovered a strip-sack fumble, La Crosse earned a big walk-off road win with a 36-yard field goal from Michael Stack.
9. FCS: Western Carolina 23, Wofford 21. I should have probably given Western Carolina’s Taron Dickens a spot on the Heisman list above. He did, after all, complete 46 straight passes Saturday, an NCAA single-game record. Granted, they were mostly short passes — he finished 53-for-56 for 378 yards — and he needed every one of them to overcome three long Wofford touchdowns. But Marcus Trout‘s 34-yard field goal with 23 seconds left assured Dickens’ record day wasn’t in vain.
10. Division II: No. 8 Augustana 29, Sioux Falls 28. Sioux Falls was on its way to both a top-10 upset and a win in the Key to the City rivalry as the Cougars led 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. But Augustana charged back, with two Richard Lucero Jr. touchdown passes sandwiching a 52-yard Jake Pecina field goal. Lucero’s 24-yard strike to Isaiah Huber gave Augie the lead with 1:18 left, and USF’s last-minute desperation drive stalled out near midfield.
Honorable mention:
12. Buffalo 31, Eastern Michigan 30 (OT)
13. No. 24 Virginia 30, Louisville 27 (OT)
14. Division II: Ferrum 28, Shorter 25
15. FCS: Dayton 35, Morehead State 28
16. Troy 31, South Alabama 24 (OT)
17. Western Kentucky 27, Delaware 24 (Friday)
18. Florida 29, No. 9 Texas 21
19. Division II: Minnesota State-Moorhead 40, Minot State 37 (OT)
College football’s championship weekend delivered a mix of compelling drama and blowouts.
In Atlanta, Georgia dominated Alabama and won the SEC for a second year in a row. The Bulldogs held the Tide to 209 total yards and locked up a first-round bye. UGA, the No. 3 seed, will play the winner of the matchup of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
It was a similar story in the Big 12 where Texas Tech broke open the game with BYU in the second half. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers in the 34-7 win. Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed and will face either No. 5 Oregon or No. 12 James Madison in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
The real drama was reserved for the Big Ten and ACC championships. Indiana won its first conference title since 1967 and took down No. 1 Ohio State. The Hoosiers will be the No. 1 seed while the Buckeyes fell just one spot to No. 2 The undefeated Hoosiers will have their first playoff game at the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential against the winner of the No. 8 Oklahoma-No. 9 Alabama matchup. Ohio State faces the winner of No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.
Duke‘s upset of Virginia in the ACC title game opened the door for two Group of 5 teams — Tulane (which won the American) and James Madison (Sun Belt winner).
After months of rankings, seedings and countless debates, we have a 12-team bracket that brings about plenty of enticing questions and intriguing possibilities.
Can Oregon, Indiana, Texas A&M or Texas Tech bring home its first national title? Can Ohio State repeat? Will a Group of 5 team get its first-ever CFP win?
Here are our full picks for the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Andrea Adelson
First round
Oregon 55, JMU 13
Bama 20, Oklahoma 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Quarterfinals
Oregon 35, Texas Tech 30
Indiana 30, Alabama 20
Georgia 40, Ole Miss 24
Ohio State 24, Miami 21
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 35, Oregon 31
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Kyle Bonagura
First round
Oregon 49, James Madison 24
Texas A&M 31, Miami 24
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24
Alabama 31, Oklahoma 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 28, Oregon 27
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 14
Indiana 35, Alabama 27
Semifinals
Ohio State 24, Georgia 17
Indiana 28, Texas Tech 24
National title game
Indiana 17, Ohio State 10
Bill Connelly
First round
Oregon 41, James Madison 24
Oklahoma 27, Alabama 17
Ole Miss 35, Tulane 20
Texas A&M 31, Miami 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 38, Oregon 34
Indiana 30, Oklahoma 7
Georgia 27, Ole Miss 23
Ohio State 24, Texas A&M 13
Semifinals
Texas Tech 27, Indiana 23
Georgia 17, Ohio State 16
National title game
Texas Tech 28, Georgia 20
David Hale
First round
Oregon 35, JMU 13
Ole Miss 48, Tulane 24
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 10
Miami 27, Texas A&M 21
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 21
Indiana 20, Alabama 10
Georgia 30, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 34, Miami 24
Semifinals
Indiana 30, Texas Tech 28
Georgia 27, Ohio State 24
National title game
Georgia 24, Indiana 20
Eli Lederman
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 20
Alabama 21, Oklahoma 10
Texas A&M 38, Miami 31
Quarterfinals
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 17
Indiana 23, Alabama 10
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 30
Ohio State 30, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Oregon 17
Georgia 27, Ohio State 20
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 17
Max Olson
First round
Oregon 34, James Madison 17
Alabama 13, Oklahoma 10
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 14
Texas A&M 27, Miami 24
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 27, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 17
Georgia 41, Ole Miss 31
Ohio State 27, Texas A&M 17
Semifinals
Indiana 17, Texas Tech 16
Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
National title game
Georgia 31, Indiana 20
Adam Rittenberg
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 13
Ole Miss 34, Tulane 16
Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
Miami 31, Texas A&M 28
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20
Indiana 24, Alabama 16
Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 20, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 19, Georgia 16
National title game
Ohio State 24, Indiana 20
Mark Schlabach
First round
Oregon 51, JMU 17
Alabama 17, Oklahoma 14
Ole Miss 42, Tulane 20
Miami 28, Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 35, Oregon 31
Indiana 31, Alabama 14
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 28
Ohio State 24, Miami 17
Semifinals
Ohio State 27, Georgia 24
Indiana 42, Texas Tech 38
National title game
Indiana 24, Ohio State 20
Jake Trotter
First round
Oregon 38, James Madison 10
Oklahoma 17, Alabama 16
Ole Miss 30, Tulane 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 23
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 25, Oregon 17
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 13
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 14
Ohio State 21, Miami 13
Semifinals
Indiana 19, Texas Tech 17
Ohio State 16, Georgia 14
National title game
Ohio State 21, Indiana 20
Paolo Uggetti
First round
Oklahoma 21, Alabama 17
Oregon 38, JMU 14
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 21
Quarterfinals
Indiana 34, Oklahoma 20
Oregon 24, Texas Tech 21
Georgia 21, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 27, Miami 20
Semifinals
Indiana 23, Oregon 20
Georgia 24, Ohio State 17
National title game
Indiana 21, Georgia 17
Dave Wilson
First round
Oregon 44, James Madison 13
Texas A&M 27, Miami 17
Ole Miss 31, Tulane 24
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 17
Quarterfinals
Texas Tech 24, Oregon 20
Georgia 44, Ole Miss 17
Ohio State 21, Texas A&M 20
Indiana 24, Oklahoma 10
Semifinals
Georgia 27, Ohio State 17
Indiana 24, Texas Tech 17
National title game
Georgia, 17, Indiana 14
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Bill Connelly
Championship Week came and went with one last burst of uncertainty. The politicking is mercifully over. The bracket is set for the second 12-team College Football Playoff, and it is an incredible mix of stalwarts and new blood.
Five teams from last year’s field return. Four of the five teams with the most CFP appearances — Alabama (ninth appearance), Ohio State (seventh), Georgia (fifth), Oklahoma (fifth) — are here, too.
But the No. 1 seed is an Indiana team that just won its first Big Ten title in 58 years and had, until earlier this year, lost more games than any other program in the history of college football. No. 4 seed Texas Tech has never finished in the top 10 and just won its first outright conference title since 1955 (when it was in the Border Conference). No. 6 seed Ole Miss has its best record in 63 years, and No. 7 Texas A&M has its best record in 34 years.
Miami, potentially looking at its first top-10 season in 22 years, eked out a bid. Tulane is here! The Green Wave are on their best run since the 1930s! James Madison is here, too! The Dukes were in FCS four years ago!
New blood, bluebloods, great offenses, great defenses. The stakes are set. Let’s talk about why each playoff team will — or won’t — win the national title.
All times Eastern.
Title odds, per SP+: 23.5% (No. 2 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oklahoma-Alabama winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: No known weakness. Are you a “defense wins championships” person? Indiana ranks second in defensive SP+, third in points allowed per drive and sixth in success rate* allowed. The Hoosiers just held Ohio State to its lowest point total in 18 games. Do you like defensive disruption? They’re second in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and seventh in sack rate.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
Need to know that your title pick has a QB it can count on in big moments? Fernando Mendoza is third in Total QBR and is, if betting odds are to be believed (and they usually are), the Heisman favorite by a large margin. And in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., he has maybe the most elite receiving duo in the country outside of Columbus. Does it help to know what a team can ground-and-pound when necessary, or stop its opponent from doing the same? IU’s offense ranks fourth in rushing success rate and 17th in yards per carry (not including sacks); its defense ranks fourth and 12th, respectively, in the same categories.
Third downs are important — what about those? Indiana is first nationally in third-down conversion rate (55.8%) and second on third-down conversion rate allowed (28.1%).
Have they come through away from home? Yeah, I’d say winning at Iowa City and Eugene probably qualifies.
There’s a reason why Indiana is the last unbeaten team standing. This team has aced every test it has been given in 2025.
Why they won’t: Random big-play issues. When you allow just 4.6 yards per play and 0.9 points per drive, you don’t have a serious issue with big plays. But a few teams did still have some success creating chunk plays.
Old Dominion scored on touchdown runs of 78 and 75 yards. Illinois hit on a 59-yard TD pass. Penn State had a 59-yard run and 43-yard pass. Kennesaw State had three completions of 30-plus yards. Hell, 98 of Ohio State’s 322 yards came on two completions (though one was a fruitless end-of-game Hail Mary), as did 93 of Maryland’s 293 yards. Even if it’s not a season-long issue, there are plenty of ultra-explosive offenses in this playoff field, and a couple of glitches could become extremely costly.
Title odds, per SP+: 28.6% (No. 1 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Texas A&M-Miami (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the defending champions, they have at least two of the five or so best players in the sport (receiver Jeremiah Smith, safety Caleb Downs), their quarterback (Julian Sayin) has the highest Total QBR of any playoff QB, their offense ranks fourth in points per drive (despite having played four games against top-20 defenses, per SP+), and their defense ranks first in defensive SP+ and second in points per drive and yards per play.
They have all the components you could ask for, and despite Saturday night’s loss to Indiana, they enter this year’s CFP with better form and fewer question marks. And hell, after 11 straight comfortable wins, even the loss might be beneficial from the standpoints of focus and motivation. This is the shortest “why they will win it” section in this entire piece, but it’s also the most definitive. We know how good they are.
Why they won’t: Cautious programming. Against the best defense he has faced in his footballing life, Sayin completed 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Granted, those numbers were boosted by the late Hail Mary completion, but he mostly kept the ball out of harm’s way, and in nearly his first genuinely high-consequence drive all season, he drove the Buckeyes 70 yards inside the Indiana 5 in the third quarter and 81 yards inside the 10 in the fourth.
Sayin came up just short on a fourth-down QB sneak on the former drive, however, which evidently prompted Ryan Day to go shockingly conservative on the latter. On fourth-and-1 from the 9, Day elected to attempt a game-tying field goal, one that, even had Jayden Fielding made it, would have given the Hoosiers ample time to drive down for a field goal of their own. Fielding missed it. Ball don’t lie.
Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline have played it safe with Sayin for most of the season, easing him in, dialing up mostly quick passes and programming him to throw the ball away if he doesn’t see what he wants. When you have a star-studded receiving corps and an incredible defense backing you up, that makes sense. But you might need to dial the risk factor up in big moments, and it sure felt like Ohio State failed in that regard Saturday night. Will they put their faith in Sayin when it matters the most? Will he back up the faith if they do?
Title odds, per SP+: 9.8% (No. 4 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Ole Miss-Tulane winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They’re mean again. Georgia was maddening to watch early this season. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs almost seemed to come out without a game plan, playing things as vanilla as possible, taking some shots from the opponent — and frequently falling behind into the second half — before rallying. It worked, aside from a loss to Alabama, but it made for some underwhelming performances (and undue stress for fans).
Over the past four games, however, the defense has locked in, allowing a paltry 7.3 points per game, 4.3 yards per play and 2.6 yards per carry, not including sacks. The Dawgs have forced three-and-outs 41% of the time in this span (10th nationally), and they’ve allowed touchdowns on just 17% of red zone trips (second).
In Saturday’s SEC championship game, a 28-7 win over Alabama, the Dawgs painted their masterpiece. They allowed just 209 total yards (3.8 per play), including just 20 non-sack rushing yards. On Bama’s first eight possessions, the Tide punted seven times, turned the ball over once and finished just one drive in Georgia territory. They finally moved the ball late but never got closer than 14 points.
After some listless play early on, Georgia is defending as well as it has since the 2022 season, its last national title year.
Why they won’t: A lack of big plays. Despite having faced a schedule featuring five top-20 defenses (per SP+), Georgia’s overall offensive numbers have been solid. It is 14th in offensive SP+, 23rd in points per drive and 22nd in success rate. The run game probably hasn’t helped as much as Smart would prefer, but short, quick passing has bridged the efficiency gap, and the Dawgs have scored at least 28 points nine times. That’s more than enough with the way the defense is playing.
While efficiency levels have been solid, Georgia struggles to create chunk plays. The Dawgs rank 130th in yards per successful play; quarterback Gunner Stockton averages just 10.7 yards per completion, and that sinks to 9.5 per completion against top-20 defenses. He almost never puts the ball in harm’s way, but safety comes with a price, and UGA is not built to move the ball quickly and aggressively if (or when) the need arises.
Title odds, per SP+: 20.9% (No. 3 favorite)
Quarterfinal opponent: vs. Oregon-James Madison winner (first-round bye)
Why they will win it all: They have the best front six in the country. Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the nation. Fellow linebacker Ben Roberts (two interceptions and a pass breakup) was the Big 12 championship game’s MVP. David Bailey is second in the nation in sacks and third in TFLs. Romello Height is 16th in sacks. And despite losing Skyler Gill-Howard to a midseason injury, tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. have prevented any semblance of a drop-off in the middle.
The secondary is good, too, but the front six has been transcendent in Lubbock. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in success rate allowed (31.3%), third in yards allowed per play (4.0) and first in yards allowed per carry, not including sacks (3.3). They’ve allowed more than two offensive touchdowns just once all year (to Kansas State in a game they still won by 23), and they’ve allowed less than 4.0 yards per play eight times in 13 games. Over the previous 15 seasons, Tech’s average defensive SP+ ranking was 83.0; thanks to first-year coordinator Shiel Wood and a transformational transfer class, the Red Raiders enter their first CFP ranked fourth. And since a 26-22 loss to Arizona State — suffered without starting quarterback Behren Morton — the offense has averaged 40.8 points per game. This band of pirates is playing utterly merciless ball at the moment.
Why they won’t: Red zone offense. Tech’s offensive numbers have been good, especially considering Morton was in and out of the lineup in the first two months. The Red Raiders are 15th in points per drive, and they can lean heavily into whatever opponents can’t stop. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams grind out 145 rushing yards per game (5.5 per carry), and four receivers — all 6-foot-2 or taller — have caught between 46 and 55 passes.
They’ve scored TDs on just 56% of red zone trips, however, which is 101st in the nation. Against three top-20 defenses (Utah, plus BYU twice), the Red Raiders turned 14 trips into just five TDs (36%). By settling for field goal attempts, they let BYU hang around into the second half of both their meetings despite total defensive domination, and the level of competition will only rise from here.
Title odds, per SP+: 6.8% (No. 5 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 12 James Madison (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Big plays and three-and-outs. Oregon has gained at least 20 yards on 10.4% of its snaps this season, the most in the country. The Ducks have also allowed gains of at least 20 yards on 3.3% of their snaps, the least in the country. They have gone three-and-out just 15.3% of the time (fourth) while forcing three-and-outs 42% of the time (fifth). It is, to say the least, difficult to beat a team that is pummeling you in both the efficiency and explosiveness departments.
Flexibility is the name of the game for Dan Lanning’s Ducks in 2025. For the third straight season, with a third different starting quarterback, they have played beautifully efficient offense: They rank fifth nationally in offensive success rate (they were seventh in 2024 and first in 2023). They’re also in the overall SP+ top four for the third straight year. This year, however, the defense has caught up to the offense. They’re fifth in defensive SP+, their highest ranking since 1958, and while they’ve topped 34 points seven times, they’ve also won Big Ten rock fights with scores of 18-16 and 21-7. You need to have a lot of arrows in the proverbial quiver to work through the CFP, and while Oregon has been really good for a while, it feels like the Ducks have more arrows than ever.
Why they won’t: More disruption needed. As effective as the defense has been, the Ducks haven’t been great at forcing the issue. They rank 98th in stuff rate and 47th in sack rate. They force a lot of passing downs — which I define as second-and-8 or more and third- or fourth-and-5 or more — but they rank 47th in passing-down success rate allowed, and if you can work the ball into the red zone, you’re probably scoring seven points: Oregon’s 75.0% red zone TD rate allowed ranks 129th.
Against defenses without disruption, good offenses are consistent enough to thrive. Against the two top-15 offenses they’ve faced (Indiana and USC), the Ducks allowed 28.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play — not terrible averages, but not dominant either.
Title odds, per SP+: 4.6% (No. 6 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 11 Tulane (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Vengeance (and great passing). Now that the weeks of innuendo and will-he-or-won’t-he questions are over, Ole Miss will head into its first CFP without Lane Kiffin but with most of the rest of the coaching staff. And while the Rebels aren’t the title favorites by any means, they’re capable of beating any team they play, especially if Kiffin’s departure produces a useful chip-on-the-shoulder effect.
The Rebels’ defense regressed from last year’s level, but it defends the pass well and has allowed more than 26 points only twice. When you almost never score fewer than 26 points (also twice all year), that puts you in a pretty good place. Ole Miss hogs the ball and wears opponents down with a solid but unspectacular run game (74th in yards per carry, not including sacks), and when it’s time for Trinidad Chambliss to pass, he often does something great. Chambliss is fifth in Total QBR, the Rebs are sixth in passing success rate and eighth in yards per dropback, and 23.1% of their completions have gained at least 20 yards (fourth). He rarely faces pressure — often because of good downs and distances — and is able to keep his eyes downfield quite a bit. Kewan Lacy and the run game are persistent, but the pass is why the Rebels are here.
Why they won’t: Run defense. The pass defense may be sound, but Ole Miss has been gashed on the ground at times. Not including sacks, the Rebels allow 5.0 yards per carry (83rd). Five opponents produced at least a 47% rushing success rate against them, including the only team to beat them (Georgia) and three that nearly pulled upsets (Kentucky, Washington State and Arkansas). Tackles Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris can both create negative plays, and not every CFP team has a great run game, but enough do for this to become a serious problem.
(One other thing to track, whether it’s a fatal flaw or not: How does new coach Pete Golding handle fourth-down decision-making? Kiffin has been famously aggressive on fourth downs through the years, and Ole Miss has scored 79 points after fourth-down conversions this season while allowing only three points after turnovers on downs. That’s some serious profit, and it could cost the Rebels if Golding chooses to be more conservative.)
Title odds, per SP+: 2.2% (No. 7 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 10 Miami (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Leverage. On offense, A&M brilliantly applies both horizontal and vertical leverage in the passing game, using speedsters KC Concepcion and Mario Craver to stretch defenses wide and deep threat Ashton Bethel-Roman and tight ends Theo Melin Öhrström and Nate Boerkircher to stretch them vertically. Once defenses are properly stressed, run lanes begin to open up for running back Rueben Owens II. At his best, quarterback Marcel Reed fires the ball quickly to all these different weapons and provides a solid run threat as well. The Aggies have topped 40 points seven times.
On defense, A&M leverages opponents into passing downs and tees off. Led by Cashius Howell (11.5 sacks), the Aggies rank first nationally in sack rate, and they are nearly impossible to beat on third downs: 73% of opponents’ third downs have required at least 7 yards (first), and A&M has allowed conversions on only 22% (also first). They also force three-and-outs 41% of the time (seventh). Attack, attack, attack.
Why they won’t: They may have peaked early. Following their 38-17 win at Missouri in Week 11, the Aggies proceeded to underachieve against SP+ projections by 20.9 points per game in their final three. Part of that average comes from showing mercy to an outmanned Samford, but they needed a huge second-half comeback to beat 4-8 South Carolina, and they got knocked out in the second half at Texas.
The Aggies’ run game isn’t contributing as much, and Reed is facing more pressure (35.6% pressure rate over the past three games), taking more sacks and throwing more interceptions — two each against South Carolina and Texas. And while their third-down conversion rate was 43.1% over their first nine games, it was 24.0% against the Gamecocks and Longhorns.
Defensively, glitches that have been problematic all season have become downright worrisome:
South Carolina had gains of 80 and 50 yards, and Texas had gains of 54, 48, 35 and 30. A&M now ranks 135th (out of 136) in yards allowed per successful play (14.4) and 127th in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.3). Defensive aggression risks big-play breakdowns, and things didn’t trend well in November. Maybe some rest will help?
Title odds, per SP+: 1.0% (No. 9 favorite)
First-round opponent: vs. No. 9 Alabama (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: The coolest defense in the country. What if you could combine Texas A&M’s aggression with solid big-play prevention? You can! OU does just about every week. The Sooners rank second in success rate allowed (first against the run), third in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), third in sack rate and fourth in three-and-out rate, but they’re also allowing a much more palatable 12.7 yards per successful play (99th, but far ahead of A&M), and they’ve allowed 17 or fewer points eight times.
Linemen Taylor Wein and Gracen Halton have combined for 24 tackles for loss and 22 run stops, and their best lineman, R Mason Thomas, could be close to healthy by the time the playoff rolls around. Meanwhile, the secondary more than carries its weight: Corners Courtland Guillory and Eli Bowen have allowed just a 38% completion rate in coverage with two interceptions, 12 breakups and just two touchdowns allowed.
OU’s offense isn’t very good (we’ll get to that), but the Sooners know themselves as well as anyone in this field. The defense does most of the heavy lifting, and when the offense is given an opportunity, it takes advantage: The Sooners score TDs on 72% of red zone trips (16th). They’ve won in Knoxville and Tuscaloosa, and their reward for that is a first-ever playoff home game. Sooners fans cheered on the move to the SEC because they wanted bigger home games, and here comes the biggest one imaginable. And against an Alabama team the Sooners know they can beat.
Why they won’t: The Sooners can’t score. This seems pretty important. Even with excellent red zone execution, the Sooners rank 87th in success rate (111th rushing), 89th in points per drive and 95th in yards per play. Dreadful stuff.
Quarterback John Mateer‘s numbers were obviously impacted by his early-season hand injury (and how quickly he attempted to come back from it), but downfield passing has been an issue all season. He has completed 30% of passes 20 or more yards downfield, 104th among QBR-eligible QBs. The run game has been dreadful: The Sooners have averaged 3.3 yards per carry over the past three games. Playing well in the red zone is important, but they probably won’t create enough red zone chances to make a major run.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.7% (No. 10 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 8 Oklahoma (Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC)
Why they will win it all: They’re battle tested. In retrospect, we know Alabama basically clinched its playoff spot in October; in consecutive weeks, the Crimson Tide beat Georgia (24-21), Vanderbilt (30-14), Missouri (27-24) and Tennessee (37-20). They were great early against Georgia, in the middle against Mizzou and late against Vandy, and it looked like all the pieces had come together against the Vols. Ty Simpson was my Heisman points race leader into November, and even with a recent downturn, he has still produced great season stats: 3,268 passing yards, 64% completion rate, 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Their legs looked a little weary down the stretch, but we know they’re capable of producing form that can beat anyone.
Well, the offense looked weary down the stretch. The defense keeps improving. Against four top-15 offenses (per SP+), the Tide allowed just 20.8 points per game, and they gave up fewer yards per play with each contest — 6.7 against Georgia the first time, then 6.2 against Vandy, then 5.3 against Tennessee, then 4.4 against Georgia the second time. Edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre (11.5 TFLs, six sacks) is one of the SEC’s best playmakers, and safety Bray Hubbard (four interceptions, six breakups) punishes mistakes in the back. The offense won’t have to produce a ton for the Tide to win some playoff games.
Why they won’t: They last looked like a playoff team in Week 8. That’s kind of an issue, isn’t it? Thanks primarily to a fading offense, the Tide have underachieved against SP+ projections in four of their past six games, falling from sixth (after the Vandy game) to 13th in SP+ in the process. The run game has never kicked in — RB Jam Miller hasn’t been able to stay healthy (and hasn’t been great even when he’s available) — and carrying the weight of the offense seemed to wear Simpson down: His Total QBR was 82.7 through seven games, 74.5 over the next four and 54.0 over the past two.
Simpson averaged a ghastly 3.7 yards per dropback against Auburn and Georgia, and both his timing in the pocket and his timing with receivers has been terribly off. Maybe a week off will help, but we haven’t seen Bama’s best for a while — and we certainly didn’t see it the last time the Tide played OU.
Title odds, per SP+: 1.7% (No. 8 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 7 Texas A&M (Dec. 20, noon, ABC)
Why they will win it all: Football is an efficiency game. If you’re winning more plays than your opponent, you can win any game you play, and few win more plays than Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes. They’re 10th in success rate (49.6%) and eighth in success rate allowed (34.5%); Indiana and Ohio State are the only other teams to rank in the top 10 in both categories.
Miami found balance this season. The Hurricanes were first in offensive SP+ in 2024 thanks to Cam Ward and the rest, but the Hurricanes were a dismal 52nd on defense, allowing 37.3 points per game in three losses and even giving up 30-plus in four wins. The offense predictably regressed after Ward’s departure, but Carson Beck, Malachi Toney & Co. are still 16th in offensive SP+, and the defense has carried a far heavier load thanks to a brilliant new coordinator (Corey Hetherman), a junior-year breakthrough from star lineman Rueben Bain Jr. and a number of transfer hits — linebacker Mohamed Toure is a dynamo in the middle, and a number of new DBs (safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser, corners Keionte Scott and Xavier Lucas) have been stellar.
The Canes have so many more paths to victory now: The offense has scored 34 or more seven times, and the defense has allowed 12 or fewer seven times.
Why they won’t: Individual games are decided by big plays and turnovers (and close-and-late situations). In two losses, the Hurricanes had as many turnovers (six) as 20-yard gains. Beck threw six picks while averaging just 10.7 yards per completion. Turnover risk without any reward will doom you, efficiency or no efficiency.
Cristobal also has so much to prove in close games. Miami is 2-2 in one-score finishes this year, and a close win — in Week 1 against Notre Dame — got the Hurricanes into the playoff field. But Cristobal’s old, overly conservative tendencies backfired in both losses. Down three late against Louisville, the Canes played for a field goal instead of a touchdown; tied with 25 seconds (and a timeout) left against SMU, they kneeled the ball out and played for overtime. They lost both times. Winning four playoff games, including one in the first round against A&M (4-0 in one-score games), will require nailing late-game circumstances, and I wish we had more evidence that Miami is capable of that.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.02% (No. 12 favorite)
First-round opponent: at No. 6 Ole Miss (Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: Turnovers and TFLs. Tulane broke through with 12 wins and a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, and the Green Wave have remained a Group of 5 contender ever since. After enjoying double-digit wins in just one season from 1935 to 2021, they’ve done it three times in the past four seasons.
Second-year coach Jon Sumrall didn’t like his team very much this October: After a tighter-than-necessary win over East Carolina, he told ESPN’s Harry Lyles, “We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games, and I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature.” They would get blown out by UTSA a couple of games later.
Since the start of November, however, the defense has surged. The Green Wave rank sixth in turnover rate (4.0%) and 18th in TFLs per game (7.0) in that span, and they’re allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, not including sacks (22nd). They force loads of passing downs and pounce on whatever mistakes the opposing quarterback makes, while Jake Retzlaff and the offense do lots of whatever the defense can’t stop. They forced five turnovers in Friday’s American championship game against North Texas, returning one for a touchdown, and against a UNT defense that is poor against the run, they simply rushed their way to a 34-21 win.
Why they won’t: You probably need to be elite at something. Tulane looks more like a power conference team than almost any in the Group of 5, and it beat both Northwestern and Duke in nonconference play. Sumrall teams will always problem-solve beautifully, even if they have to move to Plan B or Plan C. There’s a reason Sumrall has won three conference titles in four years as a head coach, and there’s a reason Florida hired him. But the Green Wave don’t have any elite traits this season, and when you have nothing you know you can lean on, sometimes not even Plan C will uncover an answer.
Tulane’s two losses this season were blowouts. Ole Miss (forgivable) and UTSA (less so) outscored them by a combined 93-36 and outgained them by a combined 355 yards. They can win a tight game against just about anyone, but if/when they lose in the CFP, it might not be close. And scaring Ole Miss in a first-round rematch will require a far better performance, especially from Retzlaff.
Title odds, per SP+: 0.2% (No. 11 favorite)
First-round opponent: No. 5 Oregon (Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT)
Why they will win it all: What, like it’s hard? JMU walked through the FBS door four years ago and immediately started acting like it owns the place. The Dukes are 40-10 in the FBS, and four of those losses came in 2024, as they were transitioning from Curt Cignetti to Bob Chesney. Once Chesney got his footing, so did the Dukes. They’re back in the SP+ top 25 for the second time in three seasons, and their only loss was at Louisville in September. They allowed the Cardinals just 264 total yards, and the game was tied in the fourth quarter until it turned on a fumble.
The Dukes look the part. JMU’s offense is top-30 in most key categories; it can play with high efficiency at times, and when it doesn’t, it bails itself out with big plays like Wayne Knight‘s 73-yard touchdown run Friday night in the Sun Belt championship game.
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Wayne Knight bursts through for a 73-yard JMU TD
Wayne Knight breaks a few tackles on his way to a 73-yard rushing touchdown for James Madison.
The defense is simply dynamite. The Dukes rank first in success rate allowed (29%) and fourth in yards allowed per play (4.1). Colin Hitschler’s defense attacks nonstop, knowing that even if it gives up a big play or two, the flood of three-and-outs and turnovers will balance that out. Redshirt freshman Sahir West leads the team with 14 TFLs — he had 5.5 TFLs and three sacks against Troy on Friday — but eight different Dukes have at least five TFLs, and their trio of cornerbacks in Justin Eaglin, Elijah Culp and DJ Barksdale (slot) compares well to any in the CFP.
Why they won’t: You probably can’t rely on big plays in the CFP. Knight has nine rushes of at least 30 yards (more than 91 FBS teams) and quarterback Alonza Barnett III has added seven rushes of 20-plus yards while completing 17 passes of 30-plus. Chunk plays are fabulous bailouts, but it’s a lot harder to generate those against elite defenses. Against the two SP+ top-30 defenses the Dukes faced (Louisville and Washington State), they averaged just 19 points at 4.5 yards per play. Winning a CFP game (or games) will require dynamite defensive play, and while JMU could deliver that, there is minimal margin for error there. Can they hold Oregon to, say, 24 or fewer points?
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