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Rachel Reeves has said she is determined to “defy” forecasts that suggest she will face a multibillion-pound black hole in next month’s budget, but has indicated there are some tough choices on the way.

Writing in The Guardian, the chancellor argued the “foundations of Britain’s economy remain strong” – and rejected claims the country is in a permanent state of decline.

Reports have suggested the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points.

Rachel Reeves. PA file pic
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Rachel Reeves. PA file pic

That means the Treasury will take in less tax than expected over the coming years – and this could leave a gap of up to £40bn in the country’s finances.

Ms Reeves wrote she would not “pre-empt” these forecasts, and her job “is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future”.

“I am determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts, but we defy them, as we already have this year. To do so means taking necessary choices today, including at the budget next month,” the chancellor added.

She also pointed to five interest rate cuts, three trade deals with major economies and wages outpacing inflation as evidence Labour has made progress since the election.

Speculation is growing that Ms Reeves may break a key manifesto pledge by raising income tax or national insurance during the budget on 26 November.

Read more from Sky News:
What tax rises could Reeves announce?
Start-ups warn chancellor over budget bombshell

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Chancellor faces tough budget choices

Budget decisions ‘don’t come for free’

Although her article didn’t address this, she admitted “our country and our economy continue to face challenges”.

Her opinion piece said: “The decisions I will take at the budget don’t come for free, and they are not easy – but they are the right, fair and necessary choices.”

Yesterday, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates reported that Ms Reeves is unlikely to raise the basic rates of income tax or national insurance, to avoid breaking a promise to protect “working people” in the budget.

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Tax hikes possible, Reeves tells Sky News

Sky News has also obtained an internal definition of “working people” used by the Treasury, which relates to Britons who earn less than £45,000 a year.

This, in theory, means those on higher salaries could be the ones to face a squeeze in the budget – with the Treasury stating that it does not comment on tax measures.

In other developments, some top economists have warned Ms Reeves that increasing income tax or reducing public spending is her only option for balancing the books.

Experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies have cautioned the chancellor against opting to hike alternative taxes instead, telling The Independent this would “cause unnecessary amounts of economic damage”.

Although such an approach would help the chancellor avoid breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge, it is feared a series of smaller changes would make the tax system “ever more complicated and less efficient”.

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How a cup of coffee led Sky News to a sex offender on the run

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How a cup of coffee led Sky News to a sex offender on the run

It started with a strong espresso in a simple cafe on a side street in north London.

Several Algerian men were inside, a few others were outside on the pavement, smoking.

I’d been told the wanted prisoner might be in Finsbury Park, so I ordered a coffee and asked if they’d seen him.

Spotting a man resembling the suspect, Tom and camera operator Josh Masters gave chase
Image:
Spotting a man resembling the suspect, Tom and camera operator Josh Masters gave chase

They were happy to tell me that some of them knew Brahim Kaddour-Cherif – the 24-year-old offender who was on the run.

One of the customers revealed to me that he’d actually seen him the night before.

“He wants to hand himself to police,” the friend said candidly.

This was the beginning of the end of a high-profile manhunt.

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The Algerian convicted sex offender had been at large since 29 October, after he was mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth in south London.

Within an hour of meeting the friend in the cafe, he had followed myself and camera operator Josh Masters to a nearby street.

Kaddour-Cherif was accidentally freed five days after the wrongful release of convicted sex offender Hadush Kebatu (pictured). They were both arrested separately in Finsbury Park. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
Image:
Kaddour-Cherif was accidentally freed five days after the wrongful release of convicted sex offender Hadush Kebatu (pictured). They were both arrested separately in Finsbury Park. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA

We weren’t yet filming – he didn’t want any attention or fuss surrounding him.

“Follow me, he’s in the park,” the man told me.

“Follow – but not too close.”

We did.

I was in the same park a few weeks ago after fugitive Hadush Kebatu, the Ethiopian sex offender – also wrongly released from prison – was arrested in Finsbury Park.

It was odd to be back in the same spot in such similar circumstances.

Read more on Tom’s story:
Wrongly released prisoner’s angry reaction
I’m glad he’s been arrested

As he led us through the park past joggers, young families and people playing tennis, the man headed for the gates near Finsbury Park station.

All of a sudden, two police officers ran past us.

The Met had received a tip-off from a member of the public.

It was frantic. Undercover officers, uniformed cops, screeching tyres and blaring sirens. We were in the middle of the manhunt.

As they scoured the streets at speed, we walked by some of the Algerian men I’d seen in the cafe.

Kaddour-Cherif walked up to a nearby police van as Tom continued to question him
Image:
Kaddour-Cherif walked up to a nearby police van as Tom continued to question him

One man near the group was wearing green tracksuit bottoms, a beanie hat and had glasses on.

“It’s him, it’s him,” one of the other men said to me, gesturing towards him.

The man in the beanie then quickly turned on his heel and walked off.

“It’s him, it’s him,” another guy agreed.

The suspect was walking off while the police were still searching the nearby streets.

Josh and I caught up with him and I asked directly: “Are you Brahim?”

You may have watched the exchange in the Sky News video – he was in denial, evasive and pretended the suspect had pedalled off on a Lime bike.

I can only guess he knew the game was up, but for whatever reason, he was keeping up the lie.

Police moved in to handcuff him and used their phones to check an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News' online platforms
Image:
Police moved in to handcuff him and used their phones to check an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms

Once his identity was confirmed, Kaddour-Cherif was put into the back of the police van
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Once his identity was confirmed, Kaddour-Cherif was put into the back of the police van

Moments later, one of the bystanders told me “it is him” – with added urgency.

Only the prisoner knows why he then walked up to the nearby police van – officers quickly moved to handcuff him and tell him why he was being arrested.

Over the next 10 minutes, he became agitated. His story changed as I repeatedly asked if he had been the man inside HMP Wandsworth.

Officers needed confirmation too – one quickly pulled out a smartphone and checked an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms.

Read more from Sky News:
Teen speeding after passing driving test caused friend’s death
DNA pioneer censured for offensive race remarks dies
Did Putin’s right-hand man make him look weak?

When Tom first caught up with him, Kaddour-Cherif claimed the culprit had left on a Lime bike
Image:
When Tom first caught up with him, Kaddour-Cherif claimed the culprit had left on a Lime bike

“It’s not my f****** fault, they release me!” he yelled at me.

The search was over, the prisoner cage in the back of the van was opened and he was guided in.

I then spoke to another Algerian man who had tipped off the police – he told me he hated sex offenders and the shame he felt over the whole episode.

The community had done the right thing – there were two tip-offs – one to me, one to the police.

The farce of this manhunt had gone on long enough.

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Nadjib, who tipped off police over released prisoner Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, tells Sky News he’s ‘happy to see him arrested’

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Nadjib, who tipped off police over released prisoner Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, tells Sky News he's 'happy to see him arrested'

“It’s him, it’s him, it’s him”, the man told me urgently.

While police were frantically searching in Finsbury Park for wanted sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, locals were telling me where he was.

Immediately after the dramatic arrest, filmed exclusively by Sky News we spoke to the North African man who tipped off the police.

Sky News filmed Brahim Kaddour-Cherif's rearrest
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Sky News filmed Brahim Kaddour-Cherif’s rearrest

Nadjib had been on the lookout for the convicted sex offender, who had been spending time in different parts of north London since his release from HMP Wandsworth.

He even had a folded-up newspaper clipping in his pocket so that he could check the picture himself.

He told Sky News he was “very happy when he got arrested”.

“I don’t like the sex offenders,” he said.

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“I know him from the community. He has been around here every night since he was released from prison.”

Nadjib (L) told Sky's Tom Parmenter he had been looking out for the offender
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Nadjib (L) told Sky’s Tom Parmenter he had been looking out for the offender

Not only did he tip the police off about the prisoner’s whereabouts, but he also witnessed the other high-profile manhunt that ended in the same park last month.

Ethiopian asylum seeker Hadush Kebatu was also arrested in Finsbury Park after a 48-hour manhunt in the capital. He was then deported to Ethiopia.

Brahim Kaddour-Cherif
Image:
Brahim Kaddour-Cherif

“When he [Kebatu] got arrested in the park I was there,” Nadjib said.

I asked him why both men ended up in the same park in north London.

“Because the community, he came here for the community of Algerians,” he said.

Several Algerian people that I spoke to on Friday told me how shameful they thought it was that this sex offender was still on the run.

“Job done,” Nadjib said, before walking off.

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Alice Figueiredo: NHS trust and ward manager to be sentenced – over a decade after young patient’s death

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Alice Figueiredo: NHS trust and ward manager to be sentenced - over a decade after young patient's death

An NHS trust and a ward manager will be sentenced next week for health and safety failings – more than a decade after a young woman died in a secure mental health hospital.

Warning: This article contains references to suicide.

Earlier this year, a jury found the North East London NHS Foundation Trust and ward manager Benjamin Aninakwa did not do enough to prevent Alice Figueiredo from killing herself.

The decisions were reached after the joint-longest jury deliberation in English legal history.

Alice was 22 years old when she took her own life at London’s Goodmayes Hospital in July 2015.

Her parents sat through seven months of difficult and graphic evidence – and told Sky News the experience retraumatised them.

Mother Jane Figueiredo
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Mother Jane Figueiredo

Jane Figueiredo said: “It’s very distressing, because you know that she’s been failed at every point all the way along, and you’re also reliving the suffering that she went through.

“It’s adding trauma on top of the wound that you’ve already got, the worst wound you can imagine, of losing your child.”

Step-father Max Figueiredo
Image:
Step-father Max Figueiredo

Alice’s stepfather Max said he remains “appalled” that she died in a place they thought would care for her.

“The fact we have these repeated deaths of very young people in secure mental health units shocks me to the core. How can society look at that event and portray it as something that happens as a matter of course?”

Ms Figueiredo said Alice had predicted her own death.

“She said to us – out of fear really: ‘The only way I’m going to leave this ward is in a body bag.’

“It’s because she did not feel safe.”

Read more from Sky News:
Joey Barton found guilty over social media posts
Six police officers facing misconduct probe

Alice had predicted her own death, her mother says
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Alice had predicted her own death, her mother says

In a statement, the North East London NHS Foundation Trust said: “We are deeply sorry for Alice’s death, and we extend our heartfelt condolences to her family and loved ones.

“We have taken significant steps to continually improve the physical and social environment, deliberately designed to support recovery, safety, wellbeing, and assist our workforce in delivering compassionate care.”

For Alice’s family, the convictions have brought some justice, but they will never have complete closure.

“As a mum your bereavement doesn’t ever end, it changes over years as you go on, but it’s unending. The thought I won’t even hear her voice is unbearable and I still miss it. I still miss her voice,” Ms Figueiredo said.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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