There has been plenty to leave Donald Trump buoyant during his trip around Asia.
Formality, flattery and ego-stroking gifts have sat alongside genuine agreements to solidify trade, diversify supply chains and build on existing allegiances.
But for all of Trump’s gravitas, for all the sway he clearly holds in this region, much of what we have seen has, no doubt, been a form of response to another great power, another unignorable presence.
It’s been more than six years since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have met in person. Tomorrow they will sit down together to attempt to iron out some of the disagreements that have plagued their relations and rocked the global economy since the early weeks of Trump’s presidency.
Managing this geopolitical relationship is far more complex than anything else he has engaged with this week, but it is the real metric of this trip’s success.
Image: Donald Trump, pictured here with President Xi Jinping in 2019, will meet China’s president again tomorrow. Pic: Reuters
Trump will find a different Chinese leader to the one he last saw in 2019, with a different approach to negotiating with him.
Xi has learnt from experiences in Trump’s first term and has clearly made the strategic decision that a deal for a deal’s sake is not worth having.
This time, China has opted to match Trump’s playbook, matching strength with strength, unpredictability with unpredictability, maximum pressure with maximum pressure – and so far it’s been working for them.
Xi has his own public to answer to and his own image as a strongman to protect. His stance of standing up to Trump – not yielding to the imposition of high tariffs, but instead matching them tit-for-tat, has been popular at home despite rates reaching as high as 145%, making trade all but impossible.
In short, China is coming to the table with a new sense of confidence – and it is one that Trump should not underestimate.
Image: Trump will be seeking to iron out a difficult spell with Xi. Pic: AP
This confidence is based on a number of factors, including major technological breakthroughs and recent military expansion. The unveiling of DeepSeek is one such example – an open source AI product made for a fraction of the cost of Western alternatives.
But it also comes from the fact that China holds arguably the most powerful trump card in these negotiations, and that is the control of the rare earth industry.
Rare earths are the crucial metals used to develop everything from cars and semiconductors to AI and advanced weaponry. China has about 60% of the world’s supply, and controls about 90% of its processing.
China has been gradually increasing restrictions in response to Trump’s tariffs. It raised the stakes a few weeks ago, introducing a stringent new licensing system that requires Chinese government approval for the export of any product containing even trace of rare earths.
This system going into force, as it is scheduled to do in the coming days, would be disastrous for the US and will no doubt be central to negotiations.
Both teams have clearly worked hard to lay the groundwork for their leaders to agree, and it is quite possible that some form of ‘quick fix’ economic deal will be decided; there’s a sense that the current instability is pretty unpalatable to both sides. There may also be progress on issues like fentanyl and TikTok.
Image: Rare earth minerals, pictured here in Inner Mongolia, China, have been a big source of dispute. File pic: Reuters
But a longer-term political understanding that reverses the recent spiral of distrust is unlikely, and there are still so many stumbling blocks – from deep-seated political differences over issues like Taiwan to a contrast of styles.
Trump likes to assume his force of character will get a deal over the line while Xi is process-driven and unlikely to sign off on something that hasn’t been ironed out in advance.
This all matters because the stakes are extremely high. As one source close to the Chinese government put it to me “the chances of armed conflict are not at zero”.
Achieving a degree of stabilisation will, of course, be welcomed in this region and around the world, but the chances of it holding feel thin.
Driving through western Jamaica, it’s staggering how wide Hurricane Melissa’s field of destruction is.
Town after town, miles apart, where trees have been uprooted and roofs peeled back.
Some homes are now just a pile of rubble, and we still don’t know how deadly this storm has been, although authorities warn the death toll will likely rise.
A total of 49 people have died in Melissa’s charge across the Caribbean – 19 in Jamaicaalone.
Image: Roads are still flooded in Jamaica
Image: The storm has blown over telephone poles, which are blocking the roads
My team and I headed from Kingston airport, towards where the hurricane made landfall, referred to as “ground zero” of this crisis.
On the way, it’s clear that so many communities here have been brought to their knees and so many people are desperate for help.
We drive under a snarl of mangled power lines and over huge piles of rocks before reaching the town of Lacovia in Saint Elizabeth Parish.
Image: The hurricane stripped the entire roof off this church
Image: Many children live in homes with caved-in roofs
At the side of the road, beside a battered and sodden primary school, a woman wearing a red shirt and black tracksuit bottoms holds a handwritten sign in the direction of passing cars.
“Help needed at this shelter,” it says. The woman’s name is Sheree McLeod, and she is an admin assistant at the school.
She is in charge of a makeshift shelter in the school, a temporary home for at least 16 people between the ages of 14 and 86.
I stop and ask what she needs and almost immediately she begins to cry.
Image: The primary school that has been housing those with no other place to stay
‘No emergency teams’
“I’ve never seen this in my entire life,” she says. “It’s heartbreaking, I never thought in a million years that I would be in the situation trying to get help and with literally no communication.
“We can’t reach any officials, there are no emergency teams. I’m hoping and praying that help can reach us soon.
“The task of a shelter manager is voluntary and the most I can do is just ask for help in whatever way possible.”
Image: Sheree McLeod pleads for help for those sheltering at the school
Image: At least 16 people currently live at the school, which is being used as a temporary shelter
Sheree shows me the classroom where she and 15 other people rode out the hurricane which she says hung over the town for hours.
They had just a sheet of tarpaulin against the window shutters to try to repel gusts of more than 170mph and a deluge of rain.
They took a white board off the wall to try to get more shelter.
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Hurricane Melissa was ‘traumatising’
“It was very terrible,” Sheree says. “We were given eight blankets for the shelter and that was it, but there were 16 people.
“Now all their clothes and blankets that they were provided with got damaged. Some people are sleeping in chairs and on wooden desks.”
Her plea for help is echoed across this part of Jamaica.
Image: Toppled-over chairs and rubbish line a classroom in the school
Image: The water tank at the school has run out
As we’re filming a pile of wooden slats that used to be a house, a passing motorcyclist shouts: “Send help, Jamaica needs help now.”
The relief effort is intensifying. After I leave Sheree, a convoy of army vehicles speed past in the direction of Black River, the town at the epicentre of this disaster.
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For generations, Keith Asad’s family has owned olive trees in the land near the West Bank town of Turmosayya, but now they are out of his reach.
The trees are still there.
He can see them, clearly, from the backyard of his house, tantalisingly close.
Image: Keith Asad says he can’t go to his olive trees as he’s too frightened
But he can’t go there. He’s too frightened, and with good reason.
Even though he lives in a town where crime is almost unknown, Keith has just installed a wall made of rigid metal spikes, and he’s considering adding barbed wire to the top of them.
He worries about the safety of his wife and children, but why?
Through the gaps between the spikes, we can see a group of vehicles and tents that have been set up in the valley beyond Keith’s house. He calls them his “unwanted neighbours”.
The rest of the world calls them settlers.
“We have some trees over there,” he says, pointing at his land. “This is the first year that we’re not even thinking about going over there.”
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West Bank teenagers: Situation is ‘disastrous’
‘Oh, we’ll be shot… guaranteed’
“What would happen if you went?” I ask, and the answer is immediate.
“Oh, we’ll be shot. That’s guaranteed. One hundred percent.”
This group arrived a few months ago, with just a couple of tents, a couple of cars and an air of menace.
Road blocks appeared, stopping the locals from reaching their ancestral land. Buildings were vandalised and weapons were brandished. And Keith says the Israeli police and military have done nothing to help.
Image: Olive farmers still come out, tending to their trees, knowing armed settlers are lurking
He shows me the damage to a door left behind after Israeli soldiers came to the house in the early hours of one morning, searching it from top to bottom and refusing to explain why.
He feels besieged, and he knows it will get worse. Because more and more of these outposts are being set up in the West Bank, by Israelis who believe they have a historic, or biblical, right to the land.
They are illegal, under both Israeli and international law.
But it is almost unknown for Israeli authorities to do anything to stop them and there is a crop of Israeli politicians, including some in the cabinet, who are passionate about encouraging as many new outposts as possible.
Because over time, they grow, attracting more people.
Military to civilian occupation
Roads and houses are built, Palestinians are intimidated into leaving and eventually those little outposts morph into permanent settlements, signed off and approved by the Israeli government.
And gradually, the Israeli occupation of the West Bank becomes slightly less military and slightly more civilian.
For the Palestinians we spoke to, it feels like an invasion, fuelled by a sense that the settlers act and attack with impunity.
Between 2005 and 2024, only around 3% of police investigations into settler violence ended in conviction. And, of course, many attacks are never investigated.
‘Very, very nervous’
In the olive groves outside Turmosayya, Yasser Alqam is driving me along a rough track, looking warily from side to side.
“I feel very, very nervous,” he says. “I’m looking to my sides, on top of these hills, because, without any warning, stones can come down on your car.
“And it’s going to take you a while before you figure out which way they’re coming from.”
Image: Yasser Alqam says he feels ‘very, very nervous’
Yasser was here earlier in the month when he saw a horrendous attack, in which a settler, armed with a club dotted with nails, beat people – including a 53-year-old Palestinian woman called Afaf Abu Alia.
Video of her being attacked, and then, covered in blood, helped to a car to be taken to hospital, was put on social media and attracted widespread condemnation. So far, despite the video evidence, nobody has been arrested.
Sky News confronted by Israeli troops
Yasser takes us to the site of the attack. As we film, an Israeli military vehicle comes along a track and stops in a cloud of dust.
The soldiers emerge and tell us we have to leave for our own protection, claiming that this olive grove is, in fact, a closed military zone.
Image: Sky News team were told police were on their way to arrest them but, as suddenly as it started, it was over
I ask who they are protecting us from, but there is no answer. I’m shown a WhatsApp image of a rudimentary rectangle on a map, and informed that this is a military order.
We’re then told we can’t leave, and that the police are on the way to arrest us. We discuss the law. And then, as suddenly as it started, it’s over – we’re free to go. It’s just another flare-up on the West Bank.
In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told us its mission was to thwart terrorism, and it said it strongly condemned violence of any kind. It said it would conduct a review of the attacks we have reported on here.
But the echoes of violence reverberate here. We go to visit Afaf, the woman who was so grievously attacked.
Her body is badly battered, and she has two blood clots on her brain, but she has been discharged from hospital and is sitting on a sofa, her family around her, frail but sure.
Image: Afra says she was beaten ‘all over her body’
The song of defiance
“They beat me on my head, behind my ears, along my legs, my back, and my neck all over my body, everywhere,” she tells me.
“I was terrified. The first thing that came to my mind was my son – he’s getting married soon. All I could think was that I might never get the chance to celebrate.
“It’s our land. We stand our ground, and we are here to stay. We’re not going anywhere. I won’t give it up to settlers. They can beat us all they want, they won’t break us.”
It is a refrain you hear repeatedly on the West Bank – the song of defiance. The olive farmers still come out, tending to their trees, aware that settlers, with their guns and their own belief that this land is rightly theirs, are lurking.
These valleys and fields are, at once, so tranquil, but also so very ominous and menacing.