COP30: Are climate summits saving the world – or just hot air?
It’s been three decades of COP talks – and as most of the climate metrics get worse, questions about whether the summits are working have become impossible to ignore.
This year, approximately 40,000 people are flying in to Belém in Brazil for COP30 – back in the country that hosted the landmark Rio Earth Summit in 1992.
At the time, it was the biggest gathering of world leaders ever.
George Bush is watched by first lady Barbara Bush as he signs the Earth Pledge at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
It spawned a slew of treaties and documents that committed countries to growing economies in ways that also protected the environment: a blueprint for a brighter, greener future – or so they thought.
That included the world’s first-ever global climate treaty, the UNFCCC, which underpins the COP process and promised to “protect the climate system for present and future generations”.
“There was, I think, a general atmosphere of hope that this was the start of a process which could make a real difference,” said Michael Howard, Britain’s then environment secretary who attended Rio 1992, and later Conservative party leader.
But despite 29 rounds of COP negotiations, the natural world that Rio pledged to protect is gasping for air.
Michael Howard, second from right, standing behind then prime minister John Major, seated, writing his pledged at the Earth Summit in 1992. Pic: Alamy
Same stage, hotter planet
Annual greenhouse gas emissions are now a staggering 65% higher than they were in 1990.
And the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased at the highest rate on record last year.
In France in 2015, some 20 COPs after the Rio Earth Summit, leaders struck the Paris Agreement – a landmark pact to limit warming ideally to 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.
But today, just 10 years later, global average temperatures are already approximately 1.4C warmer, snapping at the heels of the Paris goal.
Ban Ki-moon, who was head of the United Nations when the world signed the Paris Agreement, told Sky News it was a “moment of triumph”.
But the “problem is that after the agreement, the member states’ vision” in putting it into practice has been very different.
“Some countries were very active, some countries didn’t pay much attention.”
Those higher temperatures are fanning the flames of extreme weather, like Hurricane Melissa that killed and destroyed in the Caribbean just two weeks before COP30 starts today.
In 2024, that kind of climate damage cost £1trn globally, according to BloombergNEF. It said the “primary reason” for the rising costs is an “increase in intensity and frequency of events”.
What the Paris Agreement and COP have achieved
But that’s not to say COPs haven’t achieved anything. They have.
Defenders of “the process” point out that – before the 2015 Paris Agreement – warming was on course for about 4C by the end of the century. Now, it’s roughly 2.8C.
That’s still bad. It could collapse parts of the Amazon rainforest that is hosting this year’s COP30 – but it’s progress.
The Paris pact also stimulated a growth spurt in renewable energy, which this year provided more electricity than coal for the first time ever.
And it triggered a wave of net zero targets, which now cover at least 77% of global GDP – albeit of varying degrees of quality.
“That is an absolute transformation,” the UK’s Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told Sky News before COP30.
The “reason we need” the COP summits is because it brings together 195 countries across the world, he said.
“How are you going to do this without working together? You can’t go it alone to tackle the climate crisis.”
Deforestation is slowing – so still raging, but at a slower pace.
And the amount of planet-warming gas we emit in proportion to the amount we grow our economies is falling – in other words, we are emitting less per pound or dollar of GDP.
But Ian Hall, climate professor at Cardiff University, said these “limited signs of progress” are “modest compared to the scale and speed of change needed”.
He added: “Urgent, systemic action is essential to avoid the worst impacts.”
If the world warms by around 2.8C as expected, scientists expect most of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets would melt, bits of the Amazon would turn into savannas, and millions of people would migrate from their homelands that have become too hot, too fierce or flooded for good.
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The fight to save the Amazon
“On the islands, we get all of it,” said Surangel Whipps Jr, president of tiny island nation Palau in the west Pacific.
“We’re just waiting for the next storm. We’re waiting for the next sea level rise to destroy our crops. We’re waiting for the drought… This is the reality that we live in.”
Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said the COPs need to start focusing more on how to cope with this kind of “escalating danger”.
“That means greater attention on making societies more resilient, otherwise climate-induced chaos could derail them from decarbonising, which will make climate change worse, meaning more chaos and more derailment.”
Read more:
Why COP30 is so controversial
2025 set to be among hottest ever
The Amazon rainforest around Belém is battling threats from mining, farming and fires, as well as climate change. Pic: Reuters
Bombshell letter confronts image problem
A bombshell letter during last year’s COP in Azerbaijan – signed by climate heavyweights including former UN chief Ban Ki-moon – warned the conference was “no longer fit for purpose”.
It landed days after host president Ilham Aliyev had boasted about his country’s abundant gas being “a gift from God”.
The signatories said the summits had become co-opted by fossil fuel interests and bogged down by a slow progress and unwieldy size.
Johan Rockstrom, a prominent climate scientist who signed that letter, told Sky News it’s time to switch from “beautiful statements” that “nobody delivers upon” to holding each other accountable for what’s already been promised.
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‘Giving up would be a betrayal’
Others are giving up on COP altogether.
Dr Jennifer Allan, senior lecturer in global environmental politics at Cardiff University, has “defended COPs in the past, and still think they can do good”.
But now she feels “complicit in the myth” that COP can save the world, and in the “carbon footprint that accompanies these huge MegaCOPs”.
“The same arguments go round and round, masked beneath legal technicalities. It all feels very disconnected from the real world.”
Conscious of COP’s image problem, UN climate chief Simon Stiell has asked a crack squad to work out how to reform the process, but while still keeping all countries on side.
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Who’s winning the political climate battle?
The loudest defenders
The COP summits were designed in a wildly different era of the 1990s, a spell of relative peace and cooperation, like at the Rio Earth Summit, like the integration of countries after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Today there are more conflicts – 184 in 2024 compared with 118 in 1992 – fuelling a rise in defence spending.
Meanwhile the impacts of climate change the world was too slow to curb are hitting hard and costing a fortune.
Questions about whether multilateralism can survive this dog not just the COP talks but the entire United Nations.
World leaders gather in Belém. Pic: Reuters
Those involved in COP seem to be circling round the idea that there is no more need for beautifully worded statements – like on “transitioning away from fossil fuels” at COP28 in Dubai – but just to get on with delivering what’s already been promised.
But that will make it harder to communicate COP30 as a success.
COP30 CEO Ana Toni seemed unphased yesterday. She told journalists that 194 countries are coming – and those are much better indicators that multilateralism is alive and well.
COP summits ‘give small countries a voice’ says Palau’s president. Pic: Reuters
It is the countries most endangered by a changing climate that defend the process the loudest.
They say it’s one of the few forums where they have an equal seat at the table with major economies like China, Brazil and Russia.
Palauan president Mr Whipps said: “It is very costly, and it’s very far to come to these events. But if we don’t come, there’s nobody out there to defend the most vulnerable.”
He gives the example of Palau’s big sister in the Pacific, Australia, which was pressured by the COP process to up its emissions-cutting target from 26% to 43% by 2030.
“That’s why we feel it’s important for us that our voice be heard.”
It is a moment few could have imagined just a few years ago but the Syrian president, Ahmed al Sharaa, has arrived in Washington for a landmark series of meetings, which will culminate in a face-to-face with Donald Trump at the White House.
His journey to this point is a remarkable story, and it’s a tale of how one man went from being a jihadist battlefield commander to a statesman on the global stage – now being welcomed by the world’s most powerful nation.
Mr Sharaa became leader of Syria after the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in December last year.
Before that he went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al Jolani.
During Syria’s brutal civil war, he was the leader of the Nusra Front – a designated terror organisation, the Syrian branch of al Qaeda.
Back then, the thought of him setting foot on US soil and meeting a US president would have been unthinkable. There was a $10m reward for information leading to his capture.
Ahmed al Sharaa meeting Donald Trump in Riyadh in May. Pic: AP
So what is going on? Why is diplomacy being turned on its head?
After 14 years of conflict which started during the so-called Arab Spring, Syria is in a mess.
Mr Sharaa – as the head of the transitional government – is seen by the US as having the greatest chance of holding the country together and stopping it from falling back into civil war and failed state territory.
But to do that, Syria has to emerge from its pariah status and that’s what the US is gambling on and why it’s inclined to offer its support and a warm embrace.
Donald Trump, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Ahmed al Sharaa in May. Pic: Saudi Press Agency
By endorsing Mr Sharaa, it is hoping he will shed his past and emerge as a leader for everyone and unite the country.
Holding him close also means it’s less likely that Iran and Russia will again be able to gain a strong strategic foothold in the country.
So, a man who was once an enemy of the US is now being feted as a potential ally.
Mr Sharaa meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow in October. Pic: Reuters
There are big questions, though. He has rejected his extremist background, saying he did what he did because of the circumstances of the civil war.
But since he took power, there have been sectarian clashes. In July, fighting broke out between Druze armed groups and Bedouin tribal fighters in Sweida.
It was a sign of just how fragile the country remains and also raises concerns about his ability to be a leader for everyone.
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Can Syria’s new president be trusted?
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Nonetheless, Mr Sharaa is viewed as the best chance of stabilising Syria and by extension an important part of the Middle East.
Get Syria right, the logic goes, and the rest of the jigsaw will be easier to put and hold together.
The visit to Washington is highly significant and historic. It’s the first-ever official visit by a Syrian head of state since the country’s independence in 1946.
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Top shot: Syrian leader shows off his basketball skills
The meeting with Donald Trump is, though, the really big deal. The two men met in Riyadh in May but in the meeting later today they will discuss lifting sanctions – crucial to Syria’s post-war reconstruction – how Syria can help in the fight against Islamic State, and a possible pathway to normalisation of relations with Israel.
The optics will be fascinating as the US continues to engage with a former militant with jihadi links.
It’s a risk, but if successful, it could reshape Syria’s role in the region from US enemy to strong regional ally.
World
Madagascar’s new president Michael Randrianirina denies coup after taking office following Gen Z uprising
A Gen Z uprising has pushed Madagascar’s former leader Andry Rajoelina, not only out of office but out of the country.
In his place is Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who was sworn in as president of the island nation last month after his military unit joined the protesters.
Sky News’ Africa correspondent Yousra Elbagir sits down with the new leader.
The first question I ask Colonel Randrianirina, as he sits in an ornate mahogany chair in his military fatigues, is how it feels to be in the palace as president.
He sighs and sinks deeper into the chair. He looks humbled and struggles to find the words.
“How do I put it?” he says. “I am happy and it is also a great honour to have come to this palace to be able to help and support the Malagasy people in deep poverty.”
As commander of an elite non-combatant military unit, Corps d’Administration des Personnels et des Services de l’Armée de Terre (CAPSAT), the colonel rode a wave of Gen Z protests to the palace. On 11 October, he shared a video on social media instructing officers to disobey shoot-to-kill orders and support the movement.
The new Madagascan leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina
At least 22 protesters have been killed and more than 100 injured after denouncing the power cuts and water shortages that have come to signify government corruption in the impoverished island nation.
Why did he share the pivotal video?
He says: “I am a military officer but I am also part of the people and I will return to the people. When you feel sorry for what the people are suffering from… they have been poor for so long and wealth has been looted – but you still shoot them and kill them. That was not why I entered the military of Madagascar, to kill people.”
Soon after his speech, soldiers allowed the young protesters rejecting then president Andry Rajoelina to occupy Place du 13 Mai Square on Independence Avenue in the heart of Antananarivo, the island nation’s capital.
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October: Madagascar’s president flees country after coup
Colonel Randrianirina paraded through a crowd and addressed them from the hatch of an armoured vehicle. “The president of the nation has to leave… If that does not happen,” he threatened, “we will see”.
After Mr Rajoelina fled Madagascar on 13 October, the National Assembly voted to impeach him for “desertion of duty”. Three days later, Colonel Randrianirina stood in fatigues in front of the palace. With officers by his side, he announced their seizure of power and the dissolution of the constitution and all government institutions outside of the National Assembly.
Shortly after, the African Union suspended Madagascar‘s membership on account of the military takeover.
A demonstration in Antananarivo last month. Pic: Reuters
In the palace as president, he insists that this is not a military coup.
“It is support for the people and the country and for us to not be prone to civil war – between the people – between the military officers and your needs, so you adjust helping to support the people to avoid this.
“We were not conducting any coup at all, it was the president [Rajoelina] himself who decided to leave the country.”
Sky News meets Colonel Randrianirina
United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres condemned “the unconstitutional change of government in Madagascar” and called for “the return to constitutional order and the rule of law,” when reports of a military takeover first circulated on 16 October. The day we met the new president, he had just been congratulated by France’s President Emmanuel Macron.
Colonel Randrianirina is promising elections in 18 to 24 months, after what he calls a “refoundation and recovery” of the country – a process he admits might take a long time.
Observers are concerned that elections will be postponed and the new president will become another strongman, but Gen Z organisers are holding on to faith that this hard-earned outcome is worth it.
‘We were living under a dictatorship’
I asked a group of five young organisers if they have concerns that the president will become another dictator, just like previous Malagasy rulers who ascended to power off the back of a popular uprising. Ousted president Mr Rajoelina came into power after protests in 2009 that also ended in a CAPSAT-supported coup.
Police patrolling the streets during last month’s protests. Pic: AP
University student Ratsirarisoa Nomena told us: “The new president is not a dictator… he is listening to the people and he is validated by the people.
“We as students also validated him – he is not a dictator because the motivation of the army is from the people for the people.
“We were living under dictatorship. There was no freedom of expression and it was very hard to fight for that in Madagascar. We had to face being injured and losing our lives and the lives of our fellow students. Malagasy citizens who fought with us lost their lives too. This is what we went through – to me, we are halfway to victory.”
Their president is aware of their support and does not credit Gen Z alone for his place in the palace.
“Generation Z are part of the reason [I am here] but the full Malagasy people really wanted change at the time we are speaking,” Mr Randrianirina told me. “The Malagasy people have been suffering for so long and deprived of fundamental rights – no access to water supply and electricity, facing insecurity.
“Malagasy people, including the Gen Z, government officials and trade unions really wanted change so it is the whole Malagasy people that supported me to this point.”
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Across Africa, young people are showing their disapproval of the old guard.
Gen Z protesters have made their mark in Tanzania, Kenya, Cameroon, Morocco, Mozambique and Nigeria in 2025 alone – denouncing disputed elections and the corruption impacting their futures.
Is the Gen Z coup of Madagascar a warning for old leaders on a young continent?
“I don’t know what to say about the other countries, but I know my own country,” Mr Randrianirina says.
“If tomorrow the people of Madagascar hate me, then I will leave this palace.”
Two people have died and more than one million people evacuated after a storm bearing down on the Philippines intensified into a super typhoon and made landfall on Sunday.
Fung-wong started battering eastern and central parts of the country, causing power outages, and forcing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to declare a state of emergency.
One person drowned in Catanduanes and firefighters recovered the body of a woman trapped under the debris of a collapsed home in Catbalogan City, officials said.
A satellite image shows Storm Fung-wong, which has intensified into a super typhoon. Pic: CSU/CIRA & JMA/JAXA/Handout via Reuters
A man walks in the rain with an umbrella as Typhoon Fung-wong approaches, in Cauayan, Isabela, Philippines. Pic: Reuters
Evacuations under way in Quezon province. Pic: Philippine Coast Guard via AP
An evacuation centre in Manila. Pic: Reuters
Packing sustained winds of 115mph and gusts of up to 140mph, Super Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall in Aurora province in central Luzon.
Those living in high-risk villages in northeastern provinces were told to evacuate, including in Bicol, a coastal region vulnerable to Pacific cyclones and mudflows from Mayon, one of the country’s most active volcanoes.
Defence secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr warned Fung-wong could affect a vast expanse of the country, including the capital Manila, and Cebu, the central province hit hardest by the deadly Typhoon Kalmaegi just days ago.
More than 200 people were killed in the earlier typhoon, and around 100 are still missing.
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Filipinos stranded on roofs amid Typhoon floods
Mr Teodoro Jr urged residents to heed evacuation orders, warning refusing to comply was dangerous and unlawful.
“We ask people to pre-emptively evacuate so that we don’t end up having to conduct rescues at the last minute, which could put the lives of police, soldiers, firefighters and coast guard personnel at risk,” he said in a public address.
More than 30 million people could be exposed to hazards posed by Fung-wong, the Office of Civil Defence said.
The projection of the route that will be taken by Super Typhoon Fung-wong by Japan’s national weather agency. Pic: JMA
In Isabela in northern Luzon, dozens of families were sheltering at a basketball court repurposed as an evacuation centre.
“We’re scared,” said Christopher Sanchez, 50, who fled his home with his family. “We’re here with our grandchildren and our kids. The whole family is in the evacuation area.”
Nearly 400 domestic and international flights have been cancelled, according to the civil aviation regulator.
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Deadly tornado tears through southern Brazil
Deadly tornado in Brazil
Meanwhile, a powerful tornado ripped through the southern state of Parana in Brazil – killing at least six and injuring more than 750 people, state officials said on Saturday.
The tornado left a trail of destruction, downing trees, overturning vehicles and damaging buildings.
Roads were also blocked and power lines damaged, with authorities saying around 1,000 people were displaced,
“We will continue to assist the people of Parana and provide all the help needed,” President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wrote on X.
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