Budget 2025: Three things Rachel Reeves’s speech boils down to – and two tricks the chancellor will fall back on

Published

2 days ago

November 26, 2025

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This is going to be a big budget – not to mention a complex budget.

It could, depending on how it lands, determine the fate of this government. And it’s hard to think of many other budgets that have been preceded by quite so much speculation, briefing, and rumour.

All of which is to say, you could be forgiven for feeling rather overwhelmed.

But in practice, what’s happening this week can really be boiled down to three things.

1. Not enough growth

The first is that the economy is not growing as fast as many people had hoped. Or, to put it another way, Britain’s productivity growth is much weaker than it once used to be.

The upshot of that is that there’s less money flowing into the exchequer in the form of tax revenues.

2. Not enough cuts

The second factor is that last year and this, the chancellor promised to make certain cuts to welfare – cuts that would have saved the government billions of pounds of spending a year.

But it has failed to implement those cuts. Put those extra billions together with the shortfall from that weaker productivity, and it’s pretty clear there is a looming hole in the public finances.

3. Not enough levers

The third thing to bear in mind is that Rachel Reeves has pledged to tie her hands in the way she responds to this fiscal hole.

She has fiscal rules that mean she can’t ignore it. She has a manifesto pledge which means she is somewhat limited in the levers she can pull to fill it.

Put it all together, and it adds up to a momentous headache for the chancellor. She needs to raise quite a lot of money and all the “easy” ways of doing it (like raising income tax rates or VAT) seem to be off the table.

So… what will she do?

Quite how she responds remains to be seen – as does the precise size of the fiscal hole. But if the rumours in Westminster are to be believed, she will fall back upon two tricks most of her predecessors have tried at various points.

First, she will deploy “fiscal drag” to squeeze extra income tax and national insurance payments out of families for the coming five years.

What this means in practice is that even though the headline rate of income tax might not go up, the amount of income we end up being taxed on will grow ever higher in the coming years.

Second, the chancellor is expected to squeeze government spending in the distant years for which she doesn’t yet need to provide detailed plans.

Together, these measures may raise somewhere in the region of £10bn. But Reeves’s big problem is that in practice she needs to raise two or three times this amount. So, how will she do that?

Most likely is that she implements a grab-bag of other tax measures: more expensive council tax for high value properties; new CGT rules; new gambling taxes and more.

No return to austerity, but an Osborne-like predicament…

If this summons up a particular memory from history, it’s precisely the same problem George Osborne faced back in 2012. He wanted to raise quite a lot of money but due to agreements with his coalition partners, he was limited in how many big taxes he could raise.

The resulting budget was, at the time at least, the single most complex budget in history. Consider: in the years between 1970 and 2010 the average UK budget contained 14 tax measures. Osborne’s 2012 budget contained a whopping 61 of them.

And not long after he delivered it, the budget started to unravel. You probably recall the pasty tax, and maybe the granny tax and the charity tax. Essentially, he was forced into a series of embarrassing U-turns. If there was a lesson, it was that trying to wodge so many money-raising measures into a single fiscal event was an accident waiting to happen.

Except that… here’s the interesting thing. In the following years, the complexity of budgets didn’t fall – it rose. Osborne broke his own complexity record the next year with the 2013 budget (73 tax measures), and then again in 2016 (86 measures). By 2020 the budget contained a staggering 103 measures. And Reeves’s own first budget, last autumn, very nearly broke this record with 94 measures.

In short, budgets have become more and more complex, chock-full of even more (often microscopic) tax measures.

In part, this is a consequence of the fact that, long ago, chancellors seem to have agreed that it would be political suicide to raise the basic rate of income tax or VAT. The consequence is that they have been forced to resort to ever smaller and fiddlier measures to make their numbers add up.

The question is whether this pattern continues this week. Do we end up with yet another astoundingly complex budget? Will that slew of measures backfire as they did for Osborne in 2012? And, more to the point, will they actually benefit the UK economy?

Politics

Europe’s new chat police: Chat Control legislation nudges forward in the EU

Published

4 hours ago

November 27, 2025

admin

Europe’s new chat police: Chat Control legislation nudges forward in the EU

Representatives of European Union member states reached an agreement on Wednesday in the Council of the EU to move forward with the controversial “Chat Control” child sexual abuse regulation, which paves the way for new rules targeting abusive child sexual abuse material (CSAM) on messaging apps and other online services.

“Every year, millions of files are shared that depict the sexual abuse of children… This is completely unacceptable. Therefore, I’m glad that the member states have finally agreed on a way forward that includes a number of obligations for providers of communication services,” commented Danish Minister for Justice, Peter Hummelgaard.

The deal, which follows years of division and deadlock among member states and privacy groups, allows the legislative file to move into final talks with the European Parliament on when and how platforms can be required to scan user content for suspected child sexual abuse and grooming.

The existing CSAM framework is set to expire on April 3, 2026, and is on track to be replaced by the new legislation, pending detailed negotiations with European Parliament lawmakers.

EU Chat Control laws: What’s in and what’s out

In its latest draft, the Council maintains the core CSAM framework but modifies how platforms are encouraged to act. Online services would still have to assess how their products can be abused and adopt mitigation measures.

Service providers would also have to cooperate with a newly-established EU Centre on Child Sexual Abuse to support the implementation of the regulation, and face oversight from national authorities if they fall short.

While the latest Council text removes the explicit obligation of mandatory scanning of all private messages, the legal basis for “voluntary” CSAM detection is extended indefinitely. There are also calls for tougher risk obligations for platforms.

A compromise that satisfies neither side

To end the Chat Control stalemate, a team of Danish negotiators in the Council worked to remove the most contentious element: the blanket mandatory scanning requirement. Under previous provisions, end-to-end encrypted services like Signal and WhatsApp would have been required to systematically search users’ messages for illegal material.

Yet, it’s a compromise that leaves both sides feeling shortchanged. Law enforcement officials warn that abusive content will still lurk in the corners of fully encrypted services, while digital rights groups argue that the deal still paves the way for broader monitoring of private communications and potential for mass surveillance, according to a Thusday Politico report.

Lead negotiator and Chair of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs in the European Parliament, Javier Zarzalejos, urged both the Council and Parliament to enter negotiations at once. He stressed the importance of establishing a legislative framework to prevent and combat child sexual abuse online, while respecting encryption.

Law, Government, Europe, Privacy, European Union, Policy — *Source:* *Javier Zarzalejosj*

“I am committed to work with all political groups, the Commission, and member states in the Council in the coming months in order to agree on a legally sound and balanced legislative text that contributes to effectively prevent and combating child sexual abuse online,” he stated.

The Council celebrated the latest efforts to protect children from sexual abuse online; however, former Dutch Member of Parliament Rob Roos lambasted the Council for acting similarly to the “East German era, stripping 450 million EU citizens of their right to privacy.” He warned that Brussels was acting “behind closed doors,” and that “Europe risks sliding into digital authoritarianism.”

Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov pointed out that EU officials were exempt from having their messages monitored. He commented in a post on X, “The EU weaponizes people’s strong emotions about child protection to push mass surveillance and censorship. Their surveillance law proposals conveniently exempted EU officials from having their own messages scanned.”

Privacy on trial in broader global crackdown

The latest movement on Chat Control lands in the middle of a broader global crackdown on privacy tools. European regulators and law‑enforcement agencies have pushed high‑profile cases against crypto privacy projects like Tornado Cash, while US authorities have targeted developers linked to Samurai Wallet over alleged money‑laundering and sanctions violations, thrusting privacy‑preserving software into the crosshairs.

In response, Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin doubled down on the right to privacy as a core value. He donated 128 ETH each (roughly $760,000) to decentralized messaging projects Session and SimpleX Chat, arguing their importance in “preserving our digital privacy.”

Session president Alexander Linton told Cointelegraph that regulatory and technical developments are “threatening the future of private messaging,” while co-founder Chris McCabe said the challenge was now about raising global awareness.

Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more