23XI vs. NASCAR trial: Why Michael Jordan & Co. want to tear up stock car racing
While most Americans spent the Thanksgiving holiday eating, visiting with family and tryptophan napping, NASCAR, Michael Jordan and his racing team, and one other racing team were huddled in separate boardrooms and video chats, preparing their plans of attack and defense for Monday. That’s when the two teams join together in litigation and the series will begin a long-anticipated court showdown that will at least alter the business model of stock car racing and at most tear the Cup Series garage to pieces.
Here’s what you need to know about this high-octane legal battle as it takes the green flag in an Uptown Charlotte courtroom.
Who are the combatants?
A pair of race teams — 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports — filed an antitrust lawsuit in October 2024, claiming that NASCAR employs monopoly powers to restrict race team revenues and independence.
Team 23XI is five years old, fielding Toyotas driven by Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick and Riley Herbst. Wallace and Reddick have won a combined nine Cup Series races. Herbst made his full-time debut in 2025. The team is co-owned by Denny Hamlin, a future NASCAR Hall of Famer by any measure, who still drives full-time for Joe Gibbs Racing, as well as Jordan — yes, the former NBA megastar — and his longtime business partner Curtis Polk.
“I did it for the smaller teams as well. It’s not just me,” Jordan said last year after the suit was filed. “I think everybody should have an opportunity to be successful in any business. My voice is saying that it hasn’t been happening.”
Front Row Motorsports is owned by fast-food restaurant magnate Bob Jenkins and has fielded cars in the Cup Series since 2005. The longtime midpack organization has won four Cup races over two decades, most notably the 2021 Daytona 500 with driver Michael McDowell and currently fields a trio of Fords, driven by Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith. (No, not the former Atlanta Braves pitcher Zane Smith.)
NASCAR was founded in 1948 by a group of stock car racers assembled and steered by Daytona Beach businessman Bill France. France served as chairman of NASCAR until 1972, when he handed the wheel over to his eldest son, Bill Jr., who led the organization until he was succeeded by his son Brian in 2003. Today, NASCAR is still owned by the France family, led by Bill Sr.’s younger son, Jim, and Bill Jr.’s daughter, Lesa France Kennedy, as well as commissioner Steve Phelps and president Steve O’Donnell.
What’s the lawsuit about?
23XI and Front Row believe that the current way of doing stock car business is preventing teams from reaching their full potential.
The teams’ language in the suit says that in order for a “premier stock car racing series” — a pinnacle for regional Late Model and dirt-track drivers to aspire to — to be truly premier, then it must have premier stock car racing teams capable of fielding a premier stock car racing product. NASCAR has responded by pointing to the other “major league” sports, citing that MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA may operate the highest level of their sport, but there are other options — like the UFL or the American Speed Association — if not as lucrative.
23XI and Front Row believe that NASCAR’s one-size-fits-all Next Gen car, rolled out in 2022 as a cost-slashing effort, has stifled creativity and performance as it requires teams to purchase the parts to build those cars from NASCAR-approved suppliers. The series cites recently disclosed financial statements provided by teams, with some of those teams saying that the new car has cut their capital costs by as much as 40%.
The two teams in this legal battle also claim that NASCAR’s ownership of the majority of the racetracks on the schedule — it owns 17, including 11 on the 2025 Cup calendar — and its contract agreements with tracks it does not own, requiring those facilities to seek NASCAR’s approval before hosting other motorsport series, also limits growth for those tracks and potential expansion into other markets. In addition, they say that NASCAR’s control over race teams’ business as well as what they believe is the entirety of American motorsports (NASCAR also owns the ARCA stock car series and IMSA endurance championship) doesn’t allow teams to go stock car racing anywhere else should they want to do so, even if they were to try to start their own rival racing series.
The two teams believe this is all a violation of antitrust law.
But the reality is that all of the above is just the appetizer. The real fight is rooted in the structure of NASCAR’s charter system, where 23XI and Front Row believe the sanctioning body is being unfair when it comes to revenue distribution among its race teams and limiting value potential.
What is the charter system?
Although not a true apples-to-apples comparison, team charters are as close as NASCAR has ever come to the “stick-and-ball” sports business model of franchising.
In 2014, NASCAR team owners, newly represented by a coalition titled the Race Team Alliance (RTA), approached the sanctioning body with a list of concerns, all aimed at creating more value in the teams they owned, including guaranteed starting spots and money for full-time committed teams, cost cutting when it came to car construction and some sort of “medallion” status that would help create true long-term value in what they owned. That led to the 2016 introduction of charters.
NASCAR has always been a high-risk world of independent contracting. Whatever a team owner was willing to invest in cars and personnel, the payoff was winning races and, in theory, growing sponsorship revenue. But even the most successful racers in NASCAR history found that whenever their time at the racetrack was done, whatever they owned was worth pennies on the dollar. When sponsorship supply cratered amid the Great Recession of 2008, NASCAR garages struggled to bring in new investors and new teams.
So in 2016, NASCAR distributed 36 charters that guaranteed a starting spot in and a share of prize money from every 40-car Cup Series event, with a limit of four charters per race team. Those teams can sell or lease those charters to other interested parties, whether it be a new team starting from scratch or an existing team seeking to expand. 23XI began racing via a charter purchased from now-defunct Germain Racing in 2021. Front Row was among the 19 teams that received a charter in 2016 and have since been one of the most active teams in the market, having bought three, sold two and leased three in the past decade.
NASCAR points toward the rising cost of charters as proof that the model is working. In 2018, Spire Motorsports purchased a charter from departing Furniture Row Racing for $6 million. When they purchased another in 2023, it cost them $40 million.
NASCAR also is quick to point out that the charter system was created at the request of the teams, who first approached the sanctioning body with the idea.
What was the breaking point for 23XI and Front Row?
Charters are not permanent but are rather renewed from contract to contract with NASCAR. Polk, who was a partner in Jordan’s ownership of the Charlotte Hornets, has been very open about his displeasure with that fact. NASCAR contends that charters were never intended to be franchise agreements, but rather a contract agreement, and it requires flexibility within those contracts to do the larger business of the sport. The sanctioning body has reiterated that its ability to support teams financially is directly tied to the length of its media rights deals. Simply put, that’s where the money comes from.
When the initial 2016 charter agreement with team owners was nearing its end at the close of the 2024 season, NASCAR and a team of RTA representatives (including Polk) spent two years negotiating an extension that began in 2025 and will run through the 2031 season. The biggest snag in those talks was how to divide up the cash from NASCAR’s new seven-year, $7.7 billion TV deal, signed in November 2023. NASCAR contended that it is already being generous, at 39% to teams, 51% to racetracks and 10% to NASCAR itself. However, teams did eventually receive a 49% share to overtake the tracks as the largest chunk of the TV pie. NASCAR also added an additional $50 million payment to the teams.
But teams were unable to secure what they called “evergreen” charters that would automatically renew every seven years at the owner’s discretion.
On Sept. 6, 2024, teams received the final NASCAR proposal and were told they had until midnight to sign it. 23XI and Front Row refused, still questioning the sizes of the revenue distribution payouts as well as the failure to agree on permanent charters. Multiple team executives outside of 23XI and Front Row have told ESPN that Polk’s promise to them has been to deliver the permanent charter agreements they had failed to negotiate as a group.
Pretrial documents unsealed in mid-November provided unprecedented insight into the finances of NASCAR and its teams. Chartered teams receive a base of around $185,000 per event. The average team earns around $330,000 per race and top teams make just shy of $500,000. The total payout to teams in 2025 was $431 million, up from $333 million in 2024.
Per the 2020-2024 financials provided by a dozen NASCAR teams (23XI and Front Row were not included considering they are on the other side of the courtroom), revenue per car ranged from $43 million down to $8.2 million. However, only three teams in 2024 said they made money, and as a whole owners lost $2.2 million per car on average. NASCAR points to the improvement that those margins have made since the pre-charter era and what they calculate at more than $1.5 billion in equity, based on an estimated $45 million valuation per charter.
On Monday, a new batch of documents were released, including a summation of 23XI’s finances through 2024. From 2021 to ’24, the team saw revenue increase from $27.8 million to $62.2 million, including an increase in NASCAR payments from $6.6 million to $21.1 million. But when it comes to net income, the team peaked at $3.5 million in 2023 and lost $2.1 million in ’24. The teams’ largest source of revenue is sponsorship, at $39.6 million in 2024.
Front Row, going back to the start of the charter system, saw revenues rise from $12.8 million in 2016 to $23.6 in 2024, operating at a loss every year, from $6 million down in ’16 to $9.9 million in ’24.
As the very old racing saying goes: You want to know how to make a small fortune in racing? Start with a big one.
In late October, NASCAR’s financial statements from 2015 to ’24 were made public. In 2024, the sanctioning body’s net income was $103 million. During his State of the Sport address ahead of the season finale race at Phoenix, Phelps explained: “NASCAR’s balance sheet has more than $1.2 billion in invested capital, meaning the vast majority of what we make is invested back into the sport, our race teams and our people.”
Who are the lawyers?
The lead attorney for 23XI and Front Row is Jeffrey Kessler, a name that college sports fans will recognize from his representation of athletes as they fought for revenue vs. the NCAA and their schools. NFL fans know him as the lawyer who repped Tom Brady in the quarterback’s “Deflategate” controversy. Up front for NASCAR is litigator Chris Yates, who has represented everyone from the ACC and UFC to the Hollywood Foreign Press.
These two know each other very well, essentially the Richard Petty vs. David Pearson of sports antitrust legal battles. Kessler has long been the chosen legal counsel of those seeking to break up the powers of sports leagues, and Yates has emerged as the preferred attorney to oppose him.
Over the years, their combined impact on the business of sports and antitrust law in general has been immense. They most recently faced off earlier this year, as Yates helped MLS and the U.S. Soccer Federation prevail in a civil antitrust case filed by the defunct North American Soccer League, which accused the USSF of illegally overstepping its powers to control American professional soccer.
How long will this go on?
The initial trial is slated for 21 days, but whatever the outcome, appeals will be inevitable. So buckle up for more in 2026 and beyond.
How contentious will this become?
Oh, it already is. The Kessler vs. Yates battle alone was going to guarantee that, but there is no community in all of professional sports like the NASCAR garage, a relatively small group of people who travel together every weekend from Valentine’s until nearly Thanksgiving, and when they aren’t on the road, all live within the same Charlotte, North Carolina, metro area.
Hamlin is the perfect representation of it all, living in a neighborhood surrounded by NASCAR colleagues as he drives for one team, owns another and also hosts a wildly popular podcast discussing the sport. Even while he has been in the process of suing the sport, he has also been a member of NASCAR’s exploratory panel for potential changes to its postseason championship format, and less than a month ago he came within two laps of winning the Cup Series title in the season finale.
Among the documents already made public are text message transcripts from the phones of Phelps and O’Donnell that have proved to be embarrassing, including exchanges about the now-shuttered SRX summer short-track series that involved many NASCAR drivers, including Hamlin, and a rather raw description of six-time Cup champion team owner Richard Childress from Phelps.
The texts will not be used in court, but rather were a part of potential exhibits that were unsealed after their removal from trial. So while the jury will not see them, they have certainly done plenty of damage when it comes to the court of public opinion and the close-quarters world of the NASCAR paddock.
“Are there things that Steve [O’Donnell] and I said that we would like not to have made public? Yes,” Phelps confessed in October. “I’m sure there are things that 23XI and Front Row also feel that way. What I do know is this is an amazing sport. We are a very resilient sport. We have asked our employees, all of them, to put their head down and grow this sport. That’s what we’ve done.”
What is the endgame for each side?
The 23XI/Front Row lawsuit doesn’t list much in terms of specifics, other than damages, a restoration of what they see as fair competition, and fundamentally, more transparency from NASCAR. Among the testiest topics throughout the last year of suits, countersuits, hearings and depositions has been the idea of NASCAR and its race teams being forced to open their financial ledgers and even the contents of text messages — as demonstrated by those that have already been revealed. For a garage full of privately owned corporations, that’s uncomfortable.
Charters vs. cash, it’s an either/or scenario: If 23XI and Front Row win and do indeed seek monetary damages, the amount will be determined by a jury and they will not be awarded charters. If they instead choose to pursue charters as their reward, it would supersede damages.
The longer task of determining how to break up a NASCAR monopoly would be determined by the judge, who will likely preside over another round of negotiations between the sanctioning body and owners to sort that out, focusing on a resorting of revenue and likely a more formal representation for owners in the NASCAR boardroom. For NASCAR, the goal is protecting the current model of business, but also using this unasked-for platform to prove that their leadership works. They will argue that it has since 1949, with an approach that has evolved at a much faster pace during the post-2016 charter era, and thus there is no reason not to keep that charter era going.
If NASCAR wins, it is likely that 23XI Racing would cease to exist, refusing to surrender in the fight for permanent charters. Even if 23XI wins but does so without the reward of charters, it would also likely no longer compete.
So no matter the outcome of this trial, a stock car sea change is inevitable. Either NASCAR loses an entire team, co-owned by arguably the biggest star in the history of sports, or its nearly 80-year-old business structure is thrown in the shredder. Or perhaps even both.
“The charter system is a critical part of the sport, something we created with and for the teams,” Phelps said one month ago. “We will continue to defend and preserve it, but make no mistake, the lawsuit puts this at risk.”
“I don’t know. I think both sides probably feel strong about their case,” Hamlin said at Martinsville Speedway in late October, having just spent a week amid his prep for a near-miss Cup Series championship in failed court-ordered negotiations hoping to avoid the trial that is about to begin. “I think one of us is on a suicide mission.”
Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but ESPN’s panel of reporters, analysts and broadcasters continues to believe the Colorado Avalanche are the top team in the league in the weekly Power Rankings vote.
Beyond No. 1, there were some major swings this week, with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings making a jump, while the Pittsburgh Penguins, Winnipeg Jets and Chicago Blackhawks fell.
But this is a time for thanks and positive vibes. So for each team, we’ve pulled a reason for hope out of the quarter-season grades story published earlier this week, with insights on the Western teams from Ryan S. Clark, and the East from Kristen Shilton.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 21. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 84.8%
Reason for hope: Nathan MacKinnon is in a position to win his second Hart Trophy. Cale Makar could win his third Norris Trophy — and could challenge MacKinnon for the Hart. They now appear to have the supporting cast capable of providing consistent contributions. The Avs might be the best team in the NHL. And at their current pace, they could threaten, if not surpass, the Bruins’ record of 135 regular-season points set in 2022-23.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 28), vs. MTL (Nov. 29), vs. VAN (Dec. 2), @ NYI (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 70.8%
Reason for hope: Glen Gulutzan’s second stint in charge of the Stars could be defined by perspective. There are some questions why the Stars are in the bottom 10 in scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and high-danger scoring chances per 60. But there are also those who would argue that maybe it’s just a sign of efficiency. The Stars have the NHL’s No. 2 power-play unit, and are also 10th in goals per game.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Nov. 28), vs. OTT (Nov. 30), @ NYR (Dec. 2), @ NJ (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 65.2%
Reason for hope: The Hurricanes thrive in coach Rod Brind’Amour’s structure that emphasizes smothering defensive play. Their offense has really exceled this season, though, ranking second overall thanks to a potent Seth Jarvis (who leads the team in goals) a slippery Sebastian Aho (pacing Carolina in points) and the always-steady Jordan Staal. Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in net amid starter Frederik Andersen‘s tough start. Overall, the Hurricanes are deep, detailed and disciplined.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 28), vs. CGY (Nov. 30), vs. TOR (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 63%
Reason for hope: The strongest indication of just how well the Ducks are doing this season is Leo Carlsson‘s projected scoring pace. A Ducks player has finished with more than 100 points in a season only four times in franchise history. Carlsson is not only on pace to join a list with Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, but he’s projected to finish with 108 points. That places Carlsson in a position to have one of the best individual seasons in team history, and threaten Selanne’s franchise record of 109 points.
Next seven days: vs. LA (Nov. 28), @ CHI (Nov. 30), @ STL (Dec. 1), vs. UTA (Dec. 3)
0:53
Leo Carlsson tallies goal vs. Canucks
Leo Carlsson nets goal for Ducks
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 65.2%
Reason for hope: Regardless of what a season throws at them, this team adjusts to its circumstances and remains dangerous. Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov pack a one-two punch up front to lead the offense, and Guentzel’s performance has been particularly strong this season while the Lightning’s depth has been under the microscope. The Lightning also have Anthony Cirelli as an archetypal 200-foot center, and Victor Hedman can still go toe-to-toe to be among the league’s best defenders. The Lightning are a solid defensive group and dominate on the penalty kill.
Next seven days: @ DET (Nov. 28), @ NYR (Nov. 29), @ NYI (Dec. 2), vs. PIT (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 67.4%
Reason for hope: New Jersey’s star-studded offense has been producing at a solid rate this season; Jack Hughes had 20 points through 17 games, Jesper Bratt had 21 through 21 and Nico Hischier is still capable of being one of the league’s premier two-way centers. The Devils’ goaltending is another strength because of veteran Jake Allen, who has been excellent handling an increased workload this season. Meanwhile, defenseman Simon Nemec has blossomed after taking a bit longer to hit his stride than some expected after he went No. 2 in the 2022 draft. He has taken on a heavy workload, and that has only amplified how good he can be in the Devils’ own end as well as jumping into the rush.
Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 28), vs. PHI (Nov. 29), vs. CBJ (Dec. 1), vs. DAL (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 60.9%
Reason for hope: There was a strong belief the Golden Knights were going to score many goals this season — and they have. Losing their No. 1 defenseman in Alex Pietrangelo as he recovers from a bilateral femur reconstruction raised questions, but they’ve used the first quarter to establish themselves as one of the more consistent defensive structures in the NHL. The Golden Knights have been a top-three team this season in shots per 60 and limiting high-danger scoring chances per 60.
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Nov. 28), vs. SJ (Nov. 29), vs. CHI (Dec. 2)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 62.5%
Reason for hope: Being able to consistently field the same roster. The Wild had one of the best starts of any team last season, but injuries forced them to fight just to grab a wild-card spot. To be clear, this season has had its challenges. But the Wild have had eight players appear in all 23 games, and 13 of their skaters have played in at least 20. The impact of that has been reflected in their defensive core: Three of the top four defensemen in terms of average ice time have played in every game, and Jonas Brodin has sat out only one.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Nov. 28), vs. BUF (Nov. 29), @ EDM (Dec. 2), @ CGY (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60.9%
Reason for hope: Playoff teams are going to be judged on what allowed them to win and/or be eliminated. Giving up 20 goals over the final four games of their first-round series against the Oilers — after having a 2-0 series lead — created quite a few questions about the Kings entering the offseason. Among the items that came into question was their defensive structure. They’ll probably need to wait until the playoffs to definitively answer any of the questions after four straight first-round exits. But the way they’ve started the season — allowing the fifth-fewest goals per game — has at least suggested that they’re adept at playing close games.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 28), vs. VAN (Nov. 29), vs. WSH (Dec. 2), vs. CHI (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 58.3%
Reason for hope: Matthew Schaefer. The rookie defenseman has been better than advertised after New York selected him No. 1 in the 2025 draft. Schaefer is electric at both ends of the ice and takes on important minutes (over 22 per game) that shows how much confidence coach Patrick Roy already has in the Calder Trophy favorite. And he’s not the only exciting rookie that has Islanders fans buzzing. Maxim Shabanov delivered a breakout three-point performance to cap off a recent 6-1-0 trip, illustrating why New York coveted the former KHL player (and why he’s likely to earn a promotion from the fourth line).
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Nov. 28), vs. WSH (Nov. 30), vs. TB (Dec. 2), vs. COL (Dec. 4)
0:56
Matthew Schaefer makes NHL history with OT winner for Islanders
Matthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season.
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 60.9%
Reason for hope: Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show that the Kraken were leading the NHL in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play earlier this week, and were tied for fourth in team save percentage in all situations. Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Murray have provided continuity in net, which has complemented the Kraken’s defensive structure. In Lane Lambert’s first season as coach, the Kraken have been among the stronger teams in the NHL at limiting high-danger scoring chances per 60 and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 29), @ EDM (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 58.3%
Reason for hope: Washington has Alex Ovechkin still playing premier hockey into his 40s. That simply can’t be taken for granted. The Capitals’ captain tied for the team lead with 20 points in his first 20 games, and also added another hat trick earlier this month. He’s not the only veteran contributing for Washington — Tom Wilson, John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun have all been difference-makers in D.C. Goaltender Logan Thompson also has been outstanding, ranking among the league’s top starters in save percentage and goals-against average.
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Nov. 28), @ NYI (Nov. 30), @ LA (Dec. 2), @ SJ (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 56.3%
Reason for hope: There has been enough of a sample size that proves the Mammoth could have something good with their current roster. They opened the regular season winning eight of 10 games, including a seven-game winning streak. One reason they were in the top five in goals allowed per game in that span is their top-five status in shots allowed per game. They were also in the top five in shots per game and goals scored per game.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Nov. 28), @ STL (Nov. 29), @ SJ (Dec. 1), @ ANA (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 56.3%
Reason for hope: Detroit is having its best start in a decade, and it’s not for one reason in particular. This is a group effort delivering on GM Steve Yzerman’s vision for the Red Wings as a high-skilled, defensively responsible team. Coach Todd McLellan is maximizing Detroit’s potential in his first full season. The defensive buy-in isn’t only reflected in stats — such as how the Red Wings average among the fewest shots against per game this season — but in how skaters such as Dylan Larkin are thriving. The Red Wings’ captain leads the team in goals and points and has provided invaluable leadership to equally impressive rookie forwards Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson.
Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 28), @ BOS (Nov. 29), vs. BOS (Dec. 2), @ CBJ (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 61.4%
Reason for hope: This is a different Penguins team under first-year coach Dan Muse, who is pushing all the right buttons. Muse’s system brings out the best in Pittsburgh’s skaters by giving them freedom to operate, and that has paid off in the Penguins’ growing confidence. Pittsburgh is giving up the second-fewest goals this season, ranks in the top 10 offensively and has the league’s best power play. The Penguins’ goaltending has benefited from the emergence of Arturs Silovs and an improved Tristan Jarry. Basically, it has been all systems go for Pittsburgh.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 28), vs. TOR (Nov. 29), @ PHI (Dec. 1), @ TB (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 60.9%
Reason for hope: Ottawa got off to a shaky start before recommitting to coach Travis Green’s defensive structure. That shift has been a game-changer, as the Senators staked their claim among the Atlantic’s top three clubs. The Senators are allowing the third-fewest shots per game this season, and their goals-against average has trended downward since adapting that new mindset in late October. Ottawa hasn’t had trouble scoring with Drake Batherson (who leads the Sens with 19 points in 17 games), Tim Stutzle and Shane Pinto all contributing regularly. Jake Sanderson continues to be a revelation at both ends for Ottawa, and that has been especially impactful after captain Brady Tkachuk was sidelined by an early-season injury.
Next seven days: @ STL (Nov. 28), @ DAL (Nov. 30), @ MTL (Dec. 2), vs. NYR (Dec. 4)
0:16
Pinto’s lone goal in the shootout wins it for Senators
Pinto’s lone goal in the shootout wins it for Senators
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 61.4%
Reason for hope: Montreal didn’t think rookie goalie Jakub Dobes would be the backbone to their early-season success, but the rising star became exactly that by outperforming starter Sam Montembeault as one of the league’s breakout netminders. Dobes has been aided by the Canadiens’ more consistent defensive effort. The Habs didn’t pay enough attention on that end of the ice last season, and it hurt them. Now, the Canadiens have been stronger through the neutral zone and played with tighter gaps to limit rush chances. The Canadiens’ top skaters have also delivered, with Cole Caufield already notching 13 goals and Nick Suzuki compiling 22 points in his first 20 games.
Next seven days: @ VGK (Nov. 28), @ COL (Nov. 29), vs. OTT (Dec. 2), vs. WPG (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 54.6%
Reason for hope: The Jets can score goals, sometimes in bulk. They can get those goals from different line combinations and defense pairings in ways that many other teams can’t. That nicely complements the contributions of Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele, who are each averaging more than a point per game. It’s a key reason behind their top-12 status in goals per game and top-10 power play. Knowing they can generate goals at a high rate could prove useful upon the news that three-time Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck could sit out up to six weeks.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 28), @ NSH (Nov. 29), @ BUF (Dec. 1), @ MTL (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 54.4%
Reason for hope: Florida has proved depth and resiliency can be a weapon. Or at least a helpful tool. The Panthers are adaptive in the face of injury woes, and that next-man-up mentality could see them through as it has in the past. Florida is getting some of Brad Marchand‘s best hockey in years as the team’s goals and points leader, complementing strong starts from Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. The Panthers can seemingly weather a storm better than most thanks to … well, you know, being back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and all, and the confidence that comes with it.
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Nov. 28), vs. TOR (Dec. 2), vs. NSH (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 54.4%
Reason for hope: The questions about Connor Bedard have been replaced with another set of questions: Will he make Canada’s Olympic team while also possibly winning a scoring title? Bedard is on pace for 116 points, and if that holds, it’ll be the highest-scoring season of any Blackhawks player not named Denis Savard. Plus, any of the concerns about their veterans’ struggles from last season have been erased this season. Though Bedard is generating a lot of attention, the goaltending could signify just how much has changed with the Blackhawks from last season. They finished with a team save percentage of .894 in 2024-25, but have begun this season with a .911 mark through 22 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. Spencer Knight is presenting his case for why he could be under Olympic consideration for Team USA.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 28), vs. ANA (Nov. 30), @ VGK (Dec. 2), @ LA (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 61.4%
Reason for hope: Rick Tocchet’s group is finding ways to win hockey games with solid defensive play — they’ve hovered near the top 10 in goals against per game. That has rubbed off on the Flyers’ penalty kill, too, which is near the top of the league. Goaltender Dan Vladar has been a surprisingly reliable starter, going from a tandem option with Samuel Ersson to the backbone of Philadelphia’s defense. Another pillar is defenseman Travis Sanheim, who has been in superb command of the Flyers’ blue line. And up front, Trevor Zegras — acquired in the offseason to bolster Philadelphia’s center depth — is averaging over a point per game to lead the Flyers’ offense along with Travis Konecny.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 28), @ NJ (Nov. 29), vs. PIT (Dec. 1), vs. BUF (Dec. 3)
0:44
Flyers score 3 goals in 26 seconds to go up 4-1
Matvei Michkov scores and Tyson Foerster nets a pair in a 26-second span to give the Flyers a 4-1 lead.
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 56%
Reason for hope: Full credit to first-year coach Marco Sturm for implementing a defense-first structure that Boston has embraced enough to mitigate some of the sting from top center Elias Lindholm sitting out most of this season because of a lower-body injury. Defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been particularly strong, bringing a bruising presence to the Bruins’ blue line. Boston has also benefited from Jeremy Swayman‘s return to form this season, and the team is top-10 on both the power play and penalty kill. The Bruins weren’t expected to be a powerhouse up front, but David Pastrnak has been his usual dynamic self and Morgan Geekie is a budding offensive star.
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 28), vs. DET (Nov. 29), @ DET (Dec. 2), vs. STL (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 52.1%
Reason for hope: Their current projection has them on pace to finish with more than 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season, which was also their last playoff appearance. They’ve seen progress from their young core of Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund and Will Smith, while their veterans continue to help in ways that can and can’t be measured. Then there’s an entirely different conversation that can be had about Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini, who is among the league leaders in points, could be playing his way on to Canada’s Olympic team. He’s currently on pace for 121 points, and if that holds, he’d surpass Joe Thornton (his landlord) for the most in a single season (114) in franchise history.
Next seven days: vs. VAN (Nov. 28), @ VGK (Nov. 29), vs. UTA (Dec. 1), vs. WSH (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 54.2%
Reason for hope: Columbus can always count on Zach Werenski to deliver, and the Blue Jackets’ best player has been exactly that to start the season. Werenski is tied for the second-most points on the team — having notched his 400th career point earlier this month — and plays nearly 27 minutes per game. Up front, it’s Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli showcasing how promising Columbus’ present and future are on offense, as those young skaters continue to grow and mature. The Blue Jackets have had notable scoring success at 5-on-5 as well thanks to one of the league’s best attacks on the rush.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 28), @ NJ (Dec. 1), vs. DET (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%
Reason for hope: Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are both averaging more than a point per game, while others such as Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Roslovic have also made offensive contributions for the Oilers. The two-time defending Western Conference champions have done this before. They’ve had slow starts — some even slower than what they’ve encountered this season — and have still reached the Stanley Cup Final.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 29), vs. MIN (Dec. 2), vs. SEA (Dec. 4)
0:38
Jack Roslovic scores goal vs. Stars
Jack Roslovic scores goal vs. Stars
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52%
Reason for hope: New York is a superior defensive team under first-year coach Mike Sullivan, and that has kept them afloat. The Rangers are one of the NHL’s stingiest teams — averaging 2.65 goals against — and that’s a credit to many of New York’s skaters playing some of the best defense of their careers. And of course the offseason addition of Vladislav Gavrikov changed the narrative there, too; the big-bodied defender has been a strong partner for Adam Fox, anchoring the Rangers’ blue line. Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick have been a terrific goaltending tandem for the Blueshirts as well.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 28), vs. TB (Nov. 29), vs. DAL (Dec. 2), @ OTT (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 47.8%
Reason for hope: Buffalo found a potential hidden gem in goaltender Colten Ellis. The Sabres claimed Ellis off waivers from St. Louis in October, and he has stepped in recently to help stabilize Buffalo in net. Ellis was 3-1-0 in his first four games, with a .914 save percentage, earning a longer look in the starter’s role and providing a bright spot amid an otherwise difficult season. Josh Doan is another new face that has fit in well, playing over 15 minutes per game and notching 12 points in his first 20 games.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 28), @ MIN (Nov. 29), vs. WPG (Dec. 1), @ PHI (Dec. 3)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 50%
Reason for hope: Toronto could not have anticipated John Tavares turning back the clock. That’s the case, though, and a good thing, too, because Tavares — along with William Nylander — has been powering the Leafs’ success up front. Tavares’ 12 goals in his first 21 games ranked in the top 10 in the NHL, and Nylander had 27 points in his first 19 games. Nick Robertson is also a surprise standout with a regular top-six role. Toronto has managed to rank top-five in goals scored and second in 5-on-5 goals. The Leafs recently welcomed Joseph Woll back after he dealt with a personal issue to start the season, and the netminder has barely missed a beat, stepping in as Toronto’s No. 1 goalie.
Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 28), @ PIT (Nov. 29), @ FLA (Dec. 2), @ CAR (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 43.8%
Reason for hope: They’re among the best teams in the NHL at limiting scoring chances. They are among the top 10 in scoring chances allowed and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 28), vs. UTA (Nov. 29), vs. ANA (Dec. 1), @ BOS (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 45.8%
Reason for hope: Winning four of their first six games. That window provided a glimpse into how a healthy version of the Canucks could function. A fully healthy Thatcher Demko looked like the version of himself who was a Vezina Trophy finalist in 2023-24. Filip Chytil scored three goals during that stretch and was starting to answer questions about whether he could find consistency as a top-six center. There was also the continued emergence of Kiefer Sherwood, who went from 19 goals in his first season with the Canucks to scoring four times in those first six games and nine goals for the month.
Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 28), @ LA (Nov. 29), @ COL (Dec. 2)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 38%
Reason for hope: Being in contention for the worst record in the NHL usually comes with a porous defensive structure. Unless it’s the Flames, apparently. Their defense would be the hallmark of a team that’s trying to make a push for a playoff spot. They’re in the top four in scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. The Flames are also 13th in shots allowed per 60.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 28), @ CAR (Nov. 30), @ NSH (Dec. 2), vs. MIN (Dec. 4)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 39.1%
Reason for hope: Well, they have an above-league-average penalty kill. So there’s that at least. Filip Forsberg is continuing to build on his legacy as the best forward in franchise history. He’s projected to reach the 30-goal mark for the fourth time in the past five seasons and the fifth time in his career. Plus, Matthew Wood is presenting a strong case to make the All-Rookie Team and potentially be a Calder Trophy finalist.
Next seven days: @ CHI (Nov. 28), vs. WPG (Nov. 29), vs. CGY (Dec. 2), @ FLA (Dec. 4)
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Bill Connelly
It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.
College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).
Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?
It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.
Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers
Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.
It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.
Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.
Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)
Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.
Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.
Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.
Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3
Which contender falls on the road?
Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.
Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.
My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:
Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.
Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0
No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)
Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.
That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.
Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.
Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.
Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.
Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play
Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.
Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1
No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.
If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).
Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)
First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.
Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.
Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5
No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)
Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.
Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.
Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.
Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9
Does the ACC have another round of surprises?
Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)
The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).
No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)
SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.
Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.
Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8
Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?
To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.
Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5
Down to the wire in the Group of 5
After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.
Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).
Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.
Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2
Week 14 chaos superfecta
We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!
SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!
Week 14 playlist
From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Thursday
Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.
Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9
Early Friday
Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.
Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3
Friday afternoon
San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.
Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5
Friday evening
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?
Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6
Late Friday
No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.
Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4
Early Saturday
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3
Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.
Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4
Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?
Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5
Saturday afternoon
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.
The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.
Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6
Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.
Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?
Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3
Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3
Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.
Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1
Saturday evening
Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?
Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3
North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.
Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7
UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6
Late Saturday
UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.
Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.
FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.
SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3
Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.
SP+ projection Western by 5.6
Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.
SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3
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