Nvidia shares were not doing much on Tuesday as Wall Street failed to see the bigger picture of how the company can benefit from finally getting the green light from the U.S. government to sell its second-best chips in China. After Monday’s close, President Donald Trump said on social media that Nvidia will be allowed to ship H200 chips to “approved customers in China,” and the U.S. government would take a 25% cut. Trump said he informed Chinese President Xi Jinping , who “responded positively.” The post confirmed a media report earlier in the day that an announcement was coming. Shares of Nvidia rose 1.7% on Monday ahead of the full details of the policy change, which came after the closing bell. The stock was modestly lower on Tuesday. The H200s are not Nvidia’s state-of-the-art chips, but they are more powerful than the throttled-down H20 chips, which were made specifically for the Chinese market to comply with export bans that previously restricted the export of H100s and later the H200s. Nvidia reached a deal in August with the U.S. government to provide 15% of H20 sales in China in exchange for export licenses. It turns out nobody wanted the H20s. And, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said the company’s future guidance assumes zero revenue from China. While the updated regulation does allow Chinese buyers to upgrade to a system significantly more powerful and efficient than previously available, the move still keeps the world’s second-largest economy a step behind the U.S., limiting it to the Hopper architecture ecosystem. The latest chips shipping from Nvidia are the second generation of the Blackwell architecture, the successor to Hopper, and we expect to see production of the next-generation Rubin architecture start to ramp in the back half of 2026. The big question is: Will the H200s be embraced by customers in China, and the government there, both of whom shunned the H20s? Jim Cramer said the answer is yes, adding that Tuesday’s modest drop in Nvidia stock is not in keeping with what the company plans to do in China over the long term. “There is a belief that the Chinese, including the government, are going to encourage writing, coding on Nvidia’s chips because they are far stronger and better” than what’s available to them domestically, Jim explained during Tuesday’s Morning Meeting for Club members. “You get shut out of the world if you don’t adopt it. The Chinese want this badly.” Jim said that any reports to the contrary are not true, refuting a Financial Times article saying the Chinese government does not want to encourage Nvidia adoption — the idea being to protect China’s chip manufacturers and foster domestic development to compete with U.S. chip designers, rather than build an AI industry dependent on the ecosystem of an American crown jewel, which is forever at risk of becoming a political football whenever tensions between the two nations flare up. While Beijing may not look to outright embrace adoption of the H200, limiting its usage amounts to self-sabotage. If there’s anything to understand over the past year, even with the breakthrough of the Chinese DeepSeek artificial intelligence model that tossed the global AI trade into turmoil in early 2025, it’s that the ability to scale computing power is what drives innovation. That puts Beijing in a bind. If it limits the usage of H200s, it might be able to accelerate the development of better domestically designed chips, but it will certainly be limiting its own progress in domestically coding and training large language models (LLMs). Rather, we think the Chinese government is likely to allow the usage of H200s, while also supporting the advancement of its domestic chip market, even if that does risk Chinese developers becoming more deeply ingrained in the Nvidia ecosystem. NVDA 5Y mountain Nvidia 5 years As investors, we need to consider what the H200 news means for Nvidia’s future earnings per share (EPS). According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the easing of export restrictions announced Monday could add 60 to 70 cents to EPS estimates based on additional revenue of $25 billion to $30 billion. That’s good for $14 to $17 in the stock price, assuming no multiple expansion. “Pure bonus,” Jim said, urging investors to focus on what Jensen said about all guidance assumes no China sales. “Pure bonus. Remember, this is not an expensive stock by any means.” Based on Nvidia’s full fiscal year 2027, corresponding to calendar year 2026, the LSEG consensus estimate calls EPS of $7.62, which means the stock at around $185 per share trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 24 times forward earnings projections. That’s as cheap as it has been at any point over the past decade. Also consider that analysts expect earnings to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% over the next three years. That puts the stock’s PEG ratio (P/E divided by growth estimates) at below one, which is considered highly attractive. For comparison, the S & P 500 trades at roughly 22 times forward calendar year 2026 EPS estimates, with a CARG of about 13.7%. That translates to a PEG of about 1.61, much less desirable than Nvidia. With Nvidia, investors may be paying a slight P/E premium to the overall market – 24 times versus 22 times – but you’re getting a significantly better earnings growth outlook than you do with the average stock as measured by the S & P 500 — 31% CAGR versus 13.7. So, even without upside from an increase in China business, we see significant value in the stock. Bottom line Ultimately, the Nvidia-China news is welcome. While critics may want to downplay it, on the view that China will look to pressure domestic players to increase the pace of innovation, it’s all financial upside as far as we’re concerned. If China does adopt the H200s, great, earnings estimates need to be revised higher, and the stock is even cheaper than it appears. If Beijing does push back, well, shares still look too cheap from our perspective because there is still plenty of demand outside of China to drive earnings growth at Nvidia in the years to come. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk appears on a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, on Sept. 23, 2025.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oracle on Friday pushed back against a report that said the company will complete data centers for OpenAI, one of its major customers, in 2028, rather than 2027.
The delay is due to a shortage of labor and materials, according to the Friday report from Bloomberg, which cited unnamed people. Oracle shares fell to a session low of $185.98, down 6.5% from Thursday’s close.
“Site selection and delivery timelines were established in close coordination with OpenAI following execution of the agreement and were jointly agreed,” an Oracle spokesperson said in an email to CNBC. “There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track.”
The Oracle spokesperson did not specify a timeline for turning on cloud computing infrastructure for OpenAI. In September, OpenAI said it had a partnership with Oracle worth more than $300 billion over the next five years.
“We have a good relationship with OpenAI,” Clay Magouyrk, one of Oracle’s two newly appointed CEOs, said at an October analyst meeting.
Doing business with OpenAI is relatively new to 48-year-old Oracle. Historically, Oracle grew through sales of its database software and business applications. Its cloud infrastructure business now contributes over one-fourth of revenue, although Oracle remains a smaller hyperscaler than Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
OpenAI has also made commitments to other companies as it looks to meet expected capacity needs.
In September, Nvidia said it had signed a letter of intent with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia equipment for the San Francisco artificial intelligence startup. The first phase of that project is expected in the second half of 2026.
Nvidia and OpenAI said in a September statement that they “look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks.”
But no announcement has come yet.
In a November filing, Nvidia said “there is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity.”
OpenAI has historically relied on Nvidia graphics processing units to operate ChatGPT and other products, and now it’s also looking at designing custom chips in a collaboration with Broadcom.
On Thursday, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan laid out a timeline for the OpenAI work, which was announced in October. Broadcom and OpenAI said they had signed a term sheet.
“It’s more like 2027, 2028, 2029, 10 gigawatts, that was the OpenAI discussion,” Tan said on Broadcom’s earnings call. “And that’s, I call it, an agreement, an alignment of where we’re headed with respect to a very respected and valued customer, OpenAI. But we do not expect much in 2026.”
“This is the wrong approach — and most likely illegal,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said in a post on X Thursday.
“We need a strong federal safety standard, but we should not remove the few protections Americans currently have from the downsides of AI,” Klobuchar said.
Trump’s executive order directs Attorney General Pam Bondi to create a task force to challenge state laws regulating AI.
The Commerce Department was also directed to identify “onerous” state regulations aimed at AI.
The order is a win for tech companies such as OpenAI and Google and the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz, which have all lobbied against state regulations they view as burdensome.
It follows a push by some Republicans in Congress to impose a moratorium on state AI laws. A recent plan to tack on that moratorium to the National Defense Authorization Act was scuttled.
Collin McCune, head of government affairs at Andreessen Horowitz, celebrated Trump’s order, calling it “an important first step” to boost American competition and innovation. But McCune urged Congress to codify a national AI framework.
“States have an important role in addressing harms and protecting people, but they can’t provide the long-term clarity or national direction that only Congress can deliver,” McCune said in a statement.
Sriram Krishnan, a White House AI advisor and former general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, during an interview Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said that Trump is was looking to partner with Congress to pass such legislation.
“The White House is now taking a firm stance where we want to push back on ‘doomer’ laws that exist in a bunch of states around the country,” Krishnan said.
He also said that the goal of the executive order is to give the White House tools to go after state laws that it believes make America less competitive, such as recently passed legislation in Democratic-led states like California and Colorado.
The White House will not use the executive order to target state laws that protect the safety of children, Krishnan said.
Robert Weissman, co-president of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, called Trump’s order “mostly bluster” and said the president “cannot unilaterally preempt state law.”
“We expect the EO to be challenged in court and defeated,” Weissman said in a statement. “In the meantime, states should continue their efforts to protect their residents from the mounting dangers of unregulated AI.”
Weissman said about the order, “This reward to Big Tech is a disgraceful invitation to reckless behavior by the world’s largest corporations and a complete override of the federalist principles that Trump and MAGA claim to venerate.”
In the short term, the order could affect a handful of states that have already passed legislation targeting AI. The order says that states whose laws are considered onerous could lose federal funding.
One Colorado law, set to take effect in June, will require AI developers to protect consumers from reasonably foreseeable risks of algorithmic discrimination.
Some say Trump’s order will have no real impact on that law or other state regulations.
“I’m pretty much ignoring it, because an executive order cannot tell a state what to do,” said Colorado state Rep. Brianna Titone, a Democrat who co-sponsored the anti-discrimination law.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom recently signed a law that, starting in January, will require major AI companies to publicly disclose their safety protocols.
That law’s author, state Sen. Scott Wiener, said that Trump’s stated goal of having the United States dominate the AI sector is undercut by his recent moves.
“Of course, he just authorized chip sales to China & Saudi Arabia: the exact opposite of ensuring U.S. dominance,” Wiener wrote in an X post on Thursday night. The Bay Area Democrat is seeking to succeed Speaker-emerita Nancy Pelosi in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Trump on Monday said he will Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 chips to “approved customers” in China, provided that U.S. gets a 25% cut of revenues.
Coinbase is gearing up to launch an in-house prediction market, powered by Kalshi, a source close to the matter told CNBC — a strategic play to expand the number of asset classes available on the cryptocurrency exchange at a time some investors are shying away from digital assets.
The source said Coinbase and Kalshi will “soon” formally announce the prediction market, with news on the matter potentially coming as early as next week.
Rumblings of the prediction market launch have swirled for nearly a month. An alleged screenshot of Coinbase’s prediction markets dashboard shared by Silicon Valley researcher Jane Manchun Wong in an X post dated Nov. 18 offered some clues about the new product.
The Information first reported on Nov. 19 that Coinbase planned to launch prediction markets powered by Kalshi, adding that the exchange would unveil the new product at its “Coinbase System Update” event on Dec. 17. Bloomberg published a similar report on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the matter, adding that Coinbase would also announce a tokenized stock offering at the showcase.
Coinbase declined to confirm the reports to CNBC, but said to tune into its event next week. The firm did not comment on a timeline for when its prediction markets would go live for its users.
Coinbase’s upcoming product launches underscore its push to refashion itself into an “everything exchange,” or a one-stop shop for trading all kinds of assets, including crypto tokens, tokenized stocks and event contracts. In May, CEO Brian Armstrong articulated that “everything exchange” vision to investors, saying Coinbase would aim to become a top financial services app within the next decade.
The trading platform is setting its sights on that goal as it faces intensifying competition from rivals such as Robinhood,Gemini and Kraken. All three have launched tokenized equity offerings to users outside of the U.S. within the past year, in addition to exploring prediction markets to varying extents.
Coinbase’s moves to expand the financial instruments available to its users also come as investor sentiment on digital assets cools. A series of liquidations of highly leveraged digital asset positions in mid-October triggered several pullbacks in the crypto market, prompting investors to rotate out of tokens and into gold and other safe-have assets.
Bitcoin fell as low as around $85,000 in early December, hitting its lowest level since last March. The token was last trading at $89,951, down 23% in the past three months. Coinbase has also fallen more than 16% over the past three months.
The deal also underscores U.S.-based prediction markets operator Kalshi’s push to embed its event contracts into various brokerages, widening its reach as the prediction markets space becomes increasingly competitive.
This year, Kalshi embedded several of its prediction markets into trading platform Robinhood, as part of a non-exclusive partnership between the companies. Kalshi has also engaged in talks with several other major brokerages, including those in the crypto industry, with the aim of closing more deals like the ones it has struck with Robinhood and now Coinbase, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC.