Oracle CEOs Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia sit down with CNBC’s David Faber on Oct. 13, 2025.
CNBC
It’s been a rollercoaster year for Oracle investors, as they try to assess the strength of the software giant’s position in the artificial intelligence boom.
The stock is up more than 30% for the year even after a 23% plunge in October, which was its worst month since 2001. It’s recovered a bit in November, climbing almost 10% for the month as of Tuesday.
Heading into the company’s fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, pressure is building on management — and newly installed CEOs Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia — to show that Oracle can continue to finance the company’s aggressive infrastructure plans while simultaneously convincing Wall Street that the AI-fueled hypergrowth story remains intact.
In recent months, Oracle has emerged as a more central player in AI, largely due to a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, which came to light in September, an agreement that involves the AI startup buying computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.
Funding Oracle’s compute buildout is going to require mounds of debt. In late September, Oracle raised $18 billion in a jumbo bond sale, one of the largest debt issuances on record in the tech industry, and the company is now the biggest issuer of investment grade debt among non-financial firms, according to Citi.
“There is something inherently uncomfortable as a credit investor about the transformation of the sort we’re facing that is going to require an enormous amount of capital,” Daniel Sorid, head of U.S. investment grade credit strategy at Citi, said on a video call to investors on Friday, a replay of which was provided to reporters.
Oracle has secured billions of dollars of construction loans through a consortium of banks tied to data centers in New Mexico and Wisconsin. Citi analyst Tyler Radke estimates Oracle will raise roughly $20 billion to $30 billion in debt every year for the next three years.
As of August, the company’s combined short-term and long-term debt, which includes lease obligations, sat at $111.6 billion, up from $84.5 billion a year earlier, according to FactSet, while cash and equivalents slipped over that stretch to $10.45 billion from $10.6 billion.
As Oracle aims to build out sufficient capacity to meet the rising demand its seeing from customers like OpenAI, the street is questioning whether company will tap sources other than the debt market.
“Oracle will be looking at all options out there — off-balance sheet facilities, raising debt, issuing equity or perhaps exploring interest from a foreign investor, i.e. a sovereign wealth fund,” said Rishi Jaluria, a software analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in an interview. Jaluria recommends holding the stock.
A credit investor who spoke to CNBC highlighted Meta’s $27 billion deal with Blue Owl Capital, a joint venture between the two entities, as one type of financing arrangement being used for AI data center development.
The market is also debating whether Oracle can use vendor financing options to reduce the amount of upfront capital required to stand up data centers, including securing favorable financing terms with suppliers like Nvidia, a credit investor told CNBC. However in that scenario, Nvidia’s chips would be used as collateral, raisings concerns around GPU depreciation.
An Oracle spokesperson declined to comment.
Growing skepticism
The discomfort that Sorid referenced has driven Oracle’s 5-year credit default swaps to new multi-year highs. Credit default swaps are like insurance for investors, with buyers paying for protection in case the borrower can’t repay its debt. Bond investors told CNBC that they’ve become a popular way to hedge the risk tied to the AI trade.
Credit analysts at Barclays and Morgan Stanley are recommending clients buy Oracle’s 5-year CDS. Andrew Keches, an analyst at Barclays, told analysts in a note last month that he didn’t see an avenue for Oracle’s credit trajectory to improve. And in late November, Morgan Stanley analysts said Oracle’s CDS had attracted not just typical credit investors but “tourists” who have less experience with this type of financial instrument.
Spools of electrical wires outside a series of assembly tents during a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. Stargate is a collaboration of OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, with promotional support from President Donald Trump, to build data centers and other infrastructure for artificial intelligence throughout the US.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oracle’s revenue growth and backlog of business will be closely monitored as investors try to gauge whether the company’s spending plans are justified. Analysts expect to see revenue growth in the latest quarter of 15% to $16.2 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that hasn’t yet been recognized, are expected to surpass $500 billion, StreetAccount says, which would mark a more than fivefold increase from a year earlier. Oracle’s disclosure in September that RPOs jumped 359% to $455 billion sent the company’s stock up 36%, its best single-day performance since 1992.
Since then, the stock has wiped out all of those gains and then some.
Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, said that beyond infrastructure, he’ll be closely watching Oracle’s core database business, which is a source of much higher margins. That will help determine how much flexibility the company has in going to the capital markets, he said.
“Oracle can handle the debt load,” said Luria, who recommends holding the stock. “But they need more cash flow to raise more capital from here.”
Nvidia is developing software that could provide location verification for its AI graphics processing units (GPUs), a move that comes as Washington ramps up efforts to prevent restricted chips from being used in countries like China.
The opt-in service uses a client software agent that Nvidia chip customers can install to monitor the health of their AI GPUs, the company said in a blog post on Wednesday.
Nvidia also said that customers “will be able to visualize their GPU fleet utilization in a dashboard, globally or by compute zones — groups of nodes enrolled in the same physical or cloud locations.”
However, Nvidia told CNBC in a statement that the latest software does not give the company or outside actors the ability to disable its chips.
“There is no kill switch,” it added. “For GPU health, there are no features that allow NVIDIA to remotely control or take action on registered systems. It is read–only telemetry sent to NVIDIA.”
Telemetry is the automated process of collecting and transmitting data from remote or inaccessible sources to a central location for monitoring, analysis and optimization.
The ability to locate a device depends on the type of sensor data collected and transmitted, such as IP-based network information, timestamps, or other system-level signals that can be mapped to physical or cloud locations.
A screenshot of the software posted on Nvidia’s blog showed details such as the machine’s IP address and location.
A screenshot of the software posted on Nvidia’s blog showed details such as the machine’s IP address and location.
Nvidia blog screenshot | Opt-In NVIDIA Software Enables Data Center Fleet Management
Lukasz Olejnik, a senior research fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, said that while Nvidia indicated that its GPUs do not have hardware tracking technology, the blog did not specify if the data “uses customer input, network data, cloud provider metadata, or other methods.”
“In principle, also, the sent data contains metadata like network address, which may enable location in practice,” Olejnik, who is also an independent consultant, told CNBC.
The software could also detect any unexpected usage patterns that differ from what was declared, he added.
The latest features from Nvidia follow calls by lawmakers in Washington for the company to outfit its chips with tracking software that could help enforce export controls.
Those rules bar Nvidia from selling its more advanced AI chips to companies in China and other prohibited locations without a special license. While Trump has recently said he plans to roll back some of these export restrictions, those on Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips will remain in place.
In May, Senator Tom Cotton and a bipartisan group of eight lawmakers introduced the Chip Security Act, which, if passed, would mandate security mechanisms and location verification in advanced AI chips.
“Firms affected by U.S. export controls or China-related restrictions could use the system to verify and prove their GPU fleets remain in approved locations and state, and demonstrate compliant usage to regulators,” Olejn noted.
“That could actually help in compliance and indirectly on investment outlook positively.”
Pressure on Nvidia has intensified after Justice Department investigations into alleged smuggling rings that moved over $160 million in Nvidia chips to China.
However, Chinese officials have pushed back, warning Nvidia against equipping its chips with tracking features, as well as “potential backdoors and vulnerabilities.”
Following a national security investigation into some of Nvidia’s chips to check for these backdoors, Chinese officials have prevented local tech companies from purchasing products from the American chip designer.
Despite a green light from U.S. President Donald Trump for Nvidia to ship its previously restricted H200 chips to China, Beijing is reportedly undecided about whether to permit the imports.
Oracle shares plummeted 11% in premarket trading on Thursday, extending yesterday’s losses after the firm reported disappointing results.
The cloud computing and database software maker reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue on Wednesday, despite booming demand for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. Its revenue came in at $16.06 billion, compared with $16.21 billion expected by analysts, according to data compiled by LSEG.
It dragged other AI-related names down with it. Chip darling Nvidia was last seen down 1.5% in premarket trading, memory and storage firm Micron was 1.4% lower, tech heavyweight Microsoft dipped 0.9%, cloud company Coreweave slid 3% and AMD was 1.3% in negative territory.
Oracle has been the subject of much market chatter since raising $18 billion in a jumbo bond sale in September, marking one of the largest debt issuances for the tech industry on record. The name shot onto investor agendas when it inked a $300 billion deal with OpenAI in the same month. Oracle made further moves into cloud infrastructure, where it battles Big Tech names such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google for AI contracts.
Global investors have questioned Oracle’s aggressive AI infrastructure build-out plans and whether it needs such a colossal amount of debt to execute, though other tech firms have also recently issued corporate bonds.
Oracle specifically has secured billions of dollars of construction loans through a consortium of banks tied to data centers in New Mexico and Wisconsin. The firm will raise roughly $20 billion to $30 billion in debt every year for the next three years, according to estimates by Citi analyst Tyler Radke.
Its share price has moved 34% higher year-to-date despite recent losses.
Google DeepMind, the tech giant’s AI unit, unveiled plans for its first “automated research lab” in the U.K. as it signs a partnership that could lead to the company deploying its latest models in the country.
The AI company will open the lab, which will use AI and robotics to run experiments, in the U.K. next year. It will focus on developing new superconductor materials, which can be used to develop medical imaging tech, alongside new materials for semiconductors.
British scientists will gain “priority access” to some of the world’s most advanced AI tools under the partnership, the U.K. government said in its announcement.
Founded in London in 2010 by Nobel prize winner Demis Hassabis, DeepMind was acquired by Google in 2014, but has retained a large operational base in the U.K. The company has made several breakthroughs considered crucial to advancing AI technology.
The partnership could also lead to DeepMind working with the government on AI research in areas like nuclear fusion and deploying its Gemini models across government and education in the U.K, the government said.
“DeepMind serves as the perfect example of what UK-US tech collaboration can deliver – a firm with roots on both sides of the Atlantic backing British innovators to shape the curve of technological progress,” said U.K. Technology Secretary Liz Kendall in a statement.
“This agreement could help to unlock cleaner energy, smarter public services, and new opportunities which will benefit communities up and down the country,” she said.
“AI has incredible potential to drive a new era of scientific discovery and improve everyday life,” said Hassabis.
“We’re excited to deepen our collaboration with the UK government and build on the country’s rich heritage of innovation to advance science, strengthen security, and deliver tangible improvements for citizens.”
The U.K. has been racing to sign deals with major tech companies as it tries to build out its AI infrastructure and public deployment of the technology, since the publication of a national strategy for AI in January.
Microsoft, Nvidia, Google and OpenAI announced plans to funnel over $40 billion of investment into new AI infrastructure in the country in September, during a state visit by U.S. President Donald Trump.