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Official cars are seen outside Grand Hotel Wien after a session of meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on “Iran nuclear deal talks” in Vienna, Austria on May 01, 2021.
Askin Kiyagan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

A nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran could send energy prices higher — even if it means more supply in the oil markets, according to Goldman Sachs’ head of energy research.

While it appears to be contradictory, a deal that brings Iranian barrels back to the market could actually see oil prices rise, said Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist at the bank.

Talks in Vienna are ongoing as Iran and six world powers — the U.S., China, Russia, France, U.K. and Germany — try to salvage the 2015 landmark deal. Officials say there’s been progress, but it remains unclear when negotiations could conclude and oil prices have been seesawing as a result.

A deal would lift sanctions on Iran and bring Tehran and Washington back to complying with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran which dealt a blow to the Islamic Republic’s oil exports.

If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing.
Damien Courvalin
head of energy research, Goldman Sachs

Courvalin explained his rationale. He pointed to how oil prices rose in April after OPEC+ said they would gradually raise output from May by adding back 350,000 barrels a day.

“An increase in production … is announced that is above anyone’s expectations — ours included. And yet prices rally, volatility comes down,” he said.

“Why? Because we lifted an uncertainty that was weighing on the market since last year,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week.

Investors wondered if OPEC would end up in a price war when it tried to increase production, but the oil cartel presented a “convincing path going forward,” Courvalin said.

“You could argue the same for Iran,” he added. Simply knowing will likely “lift some of that uncertainty.”

“If that announcement comes in the next few weeks, in our view, it actually starts that bullish repricing,” he said at that time.

Opposing views

Other analysts say an agreement could mean lower prices for oil, at least in the short term.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note that an increase in Iranian exports will probably cap Brent crude at $70 per barrel, and expects the international benchmark to trade between $65 and $70 per barrel for the second half of 2021.

Brent crude was lower by 0.13% at $71.22 on Friday in Asia, while U.S. crude futures were down 0.1% at $68.75.

“Our view is that the initial reaction to a potential deal will be a brief sell-off,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC in an email.

Extra Iranian barrels would be a headwind if a deal materializes, according to Austin Pickle, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But softer crude prices may only be temporary.

“We suspect accelerating demand and OPEC+’s disciplined supply response will support oil prices,” Pickle wrote in a note, referring to OPEC and its allies.

PVM Oil Associates expects Brent prices to reach $80 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2021, Varga said.

He also said it will take time before Iran starts to export oil again, and global demand could have improved significantly by the time additional barrels reach the market.

Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course.
Tamas Varga
analyst, PVM Oil Associates

While the global economic recovery has been uneven — faster in the developed world, compared to the developing world — oil prices will rise more quickly when vaccine rollouts accelerate in Asia, he added.

“Extra Iranian barrels should only delay price recovery but not throw it off course,” Varga said.

S&P Global Platts Analytics has the view that there is room to accommodate Iranian and OPEC+ oil supply growth in the third quarter.

Toward year-end, however, energy prices could come under pressure as Iran exports and U.S. oil production increase, said Nareeka Ahir, a geopolitical analyst at S&P. She said Brent could fall to the mid or low $60s in late 2021 into 2022.

Supply may lag demand

Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude prices rising at a faster pace, and predicts the international benchmark could hit $80 by the third quarter of this year.

Courvalin noted that Asia’s oil demand has been revised lower due to new waves of the virus, and that has been been offset by upside surprises in the U.S. and Europe.

“It really paints a picture where, once vaccination rates progress sufficiently, you really see pent-up mobility get unleashed, and a significant increase in oil demand,” he said. “That’s … the root of the bullish view.”

He said supply will likely lag the pop in demand, and there will be “plenty of room” to absorb oil from Iran.

“In fact, if you told me Iran’s not coming back, our $80 dollar forecast is way too low relative to where the oil market is heading by 2022,” he added.

Concerns over an Iran deal and the pandemic may have “masked a fast-tightening oil market,” Courvalin said.

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Toyota lands $20,000 to bring this pint-sized EV with a solar roof to life

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Toyota lands ,000 to bring this pint-sized EV with a solar roof to life

Toyota’s smallest electric vehicle might actually hit the road. Thanks to new funding from the UK government, Toyota is one step closer to turning this pint-sized EV with a solar roof into a reality.

The Toyota FT-Me is a micro EV with a solar roof

It may be only 2.5 meters (98″) long, but Toyota believes the tiny electric car could be an affordable way to zip around the city.

The FT-Me is “a ground breaking concept” that blends premium design with affordability, Toyota said after unveiling it in March.

After securing a £15 million ($20,000) investment from the UK government’s DRIVE35 program, Toyota is moving closer to actually launching the pint-sized EV.

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The Advanced Propulsion Centre UK, which manages the funding, announced that the £30.3 million ($40,500) project includes a £15 million grant from the Department for Business and Trade. Toyota is expected to fund the other roughly £15 million.

Toyota is working with several partners, including urban delivery specialist ELM Mobility and the University of Derby, to develop a new lightweight battery electric vehicle (BEV) in the L6e category.

Toyota-FT-Me-EV
Toyota FT-Me micro EV (Source: Toyota)

Meanwhile, Savcor will design and develop the solar roof, which Toyota claims can extend a vehicle’s range by 20%, or about 20 to 30 km per day.

The pint-sized EV will be manufactured at Toyota Manufacturing UK’s Burnaston site, where it currently builds the Corolla.

Toyota-EV-solar-roof
Toyota FT-Me micro EV concept (Source: Toyota)

Although it’s about the size of a golf cart, Toyota promises the micro EV fits two passengers comfortably. The company also claims the FT-Me’s propulsion system uses 3X less energy per km than current high-capacity electric vehicles.

Toyota-EV-solar-roof
The interior of the Toyota FT-Me EV concept (Source: Toyota)

Inspired by a jet helmet, Toyota said the vehicle’s compact design makes it perfect for getting around the city. It only takes up about half a parking spot.

Toyota’s pint-sized EV could arrive as a potential rival to the Citroen Ami. The Ami starts at £7,695 ($10,000) OTR, offering a WLTP range of up to 46 miles.

Would you buy Toyota’s micro EV for about $10,000? It could be a fun (and efficient) way to zip around town. It’s basically a futuristic electric golf cart with a solar roof. Unfortunately, it likely will never make it to the US with America’s growing love for big trucks and SUVs.

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Norway says ‘mission accomplished’ on going 100% EV, proposes incentive changes

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Norway says 'mission accomplished' on going 100% EV, proposes incentive changes

For years, Norway has been the poster child for electric vehicle adoption, a perfect example of how a combination of ambitious goals and robust incentives can transform a nation’s entire automotive industry.

Now, with the country on the cusp of achieving its goal of 100% all-electric new car sales by 2025, the Norwegian government is signaling a new phase in its EV strategy, proposing changes to its incentive program that include the introduction of taxes on electric vehicles.

We have often used Norway’s success in electrifying its vehicle fleet as an example of how quickly the electric transition can impact the automotive market under the right conditions.

They made it happen through a comprehensive package of incentives, including exemptions from purchase taxes and VAT, free access to toll roads and bus lanes, on top of properly taxing internal combustion engine vehicles.

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This resulted in EVs being the preferred choice for a vast majority of new car buyers. In 2024, a staggering 88.9% of new cars sold in Norway were all-electric, a figure that has continued to climb in 2025.

Gasoline and diesel cars are now obsolete in the Norwegian new car market, with a few hundred new cars per month, while EVs represent roughly 95-97%.

Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg has announced mission accomplished (via Reuters):

“We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and … we can say that the goal has been achieved.”

With the finish line in sight, the Norwegian government is now fine-tuning its approach.

The current incentive program maintains the crucial VAT exemption for EVs, but only up to a purchase price of 500,000 Norwegian kroner (approximately $49,000 USD). This move is designed to target more expensive, luxury EVs, ensuring that the incentive benefits a broader range of consumers.

However, the latest budget proposal aims to reduce the EV tax exemption to vehicles costing 300,000 Norwegian kroner (~30,000 USD).

This would apply for 2026, and then the tax exemption would completely end in 2027.

Additionally, the government plans to increase taxes on new gasoline and diesel cars, further widening the cost gap between polluting and zero-emission vehicles.

However, the proposal still needs to be adopted by Norway’s government, and there is some opposition.

EV associations are advocating for a more extended phase-out period to ensure that the adoption rate doesn’t decline.

Electrek’s Take

For EV enthusiasts such as myself, Norway’s journey has been a source of inspiration and a powerful argument against the claims of EV detractors. The country has proven that with the right policies, a rapid and comprehensive transition to electric mobility is not just a distant dream but an achievable reality.

That said, I do understand that Norway has a lot going for it. It is wealthy. And therefore, it made the transition easier than in most other markets.

Regarding the policy changes, I wouldn’t interpret them as a sign of retreat from the country’s electrification goals. Instead, they represent a maturation of Norway’s EV policy.

The proposed changes to Norway’s incentive program are a logical next step in this evolution. As the EV market matures, it’s natural for governments to reassess and adjust their policies. The key is to do so in a way that doesn’t derail the progress that has been made.

However, I do agree with the local EV advocates that it would make sense to extend the phase-out to ensure the market maintains its current near-100% EV rate for a few years.

The rest of the world has much to learn from Norway’s experience. The country has provided a blueprint for how to kickstart an EV revolution, and now it is showing us how to manage the transition to a fully electric future.

The message from Norway is clear: the age of the internal combustion engine is over. The future of transportation is electric, and it’s happening now.

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Waymo is expanding to London with public robotaxi rides coming soon

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Waymo is expanding to London with public robotaxi rides coming soon

Fully autonomous technology developer Waymo continues to expand the reach of its test fleet as well as bona fide customer rides without a driver present. This morning, Waymo shared plans to expand across the pond to London, with public robotaxi rides expected sooner than you might think.

2025 has already been a notable year for autonomous rideshare developer Waymo, as it continues to expand across the United States. This year alone, the Alphabet, Inc. subsidiary began offering customer rides in Austin, Texas, in addition to expansion plans for other cities such as Dallas and Nashville.

In late 2024, Waymo also announced plans to begin testing its robotaxis in Tokyo, Japan, marking the company’s first international expansion. Today, Waymo shared plans for global market growth in the opposite direction, laying the groundwork for robotaxi operations in London as early as next year.

Waymo cities

Waymo to offer public robotaxi rides in London in 2026

According to a release from Waymo this morning, the company has begun plans to expand its driverless robotaxi operations to London, laying the initial groundwork for certifications to start commercial operations by 2026. The company said it will be working with existing fleet partner Moove, which will assist with London operations. Per Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana:

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We’re thrilled to bring the reliability, safety and magic of Waymo to Londoners. Waymo is making roads safer and transportation more accessible where we operate. We’ve demonstrated how to responsibly scale fully autonomous ride-hailing, and we can’t wait to expand the benefits of our technology to the United Kingdom.

Over the coming months, Waymo plans to test its technology on London roads, seeking permission from local leaders. Once that happens, Waymo will be able to begin offering the public robotaxi services using all-electric I-Pace vehicles from UK automaker Jaguar Land Rover. When available, Londoners will be able to hail a ride via the Waymo app.

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