A blip or a worrying sign? Tories begin inquest after surprising by-election loss
It’s an unwritten rule of politics that every electoral action can have an opposite – if not quite equal – reaction.
The question being asked by many Tories this morning will be whether the party’s recent relentless focus on winning new supporters in traditionally Labour-held areas in the north is starting to cost them in their strongholds in the south.
As ever, the reality is more complex.
Chesham and Amersham presented a potent mix of local and national issues that the Lib Dems were able to capitalise on.
The HS2 rail line runs through the constituency and proposed planning changes are a big concern here too.
And as the losing Tory candidate has said, the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink, the microwave and everything else at this seat.
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Tories lose seat for first time in 47 years
Tactical voting may have also been at play with Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems to ensure a government defeat.
But all that said, this trend – of traditional Tory regions in the south being eaten away by the opposition parties – was visible in May’s local election results.
David Cameron’s old Oxfordshire constituency of Whitney and the bastion of moneyed Home Counties Toryism Chipping Norton both got Labour councillors in that vote.
Meanwhile further south in Sussex, the conservative leader of Worthing Borough Council explicitly blamed the focus on levelling up in the north and prevalence of planned housing developments in the south for a loss of seats in his region.
The Lib Dems are echoing that this morning, saying that voters in places like Chesham and Amersham are fed up of being taken for granted.
Demographic change as young families move from inner London, along with chunky support for remaining in the EU in 2016 may also have played a part.
The messaging from Tory sources this morning is that this is a predictable mid-term protest vote against a party that has been in power for ten years and the seat can be retaken at a general election.
That may be right – but remember, that logic wasn’t borne out in the Hartlepool by-election where the Tories took the seat in May.
It also comes at a time when the government is polling well, in the midst of a successful vaccine rollout.
All of that means this is a more surprising result than Hartlepool.
But just because this brick has turned yellow, doesn’t mean the whole blue wall is guaranteed to come falling down.
For a start, there are genuine questions about whether there is a big enough crop of seats the Tories would realistically lose in a general election to counter their wins in the north.
What’s more, while in the north the Tories are now single-handedly taking votes from Labour, in the south the spoils of disillusioned conservative voters are more frequently being shared between a number of opposition parties.
For Labour, this is bad news.
This by-election saw the opposition vote collapse to just over 600 votes.
May’s bumper round of polling also saw good gains for the Green Party, as well as the Lib Dems.
Expect questions for Sir Keir Starmer today about why Labour is failing to win in places like Chesham and Amersham when the Lib Dems are.
The practical question for the next general election may be whether anti-Tory electoral pacts are the only way to get close to pushing Boris Johnson out of power.
Countless prime ministers have learnt the lesson of taking voters for granted the hard way.
It’s an irony not lost on Tories that the same sense of disillusionment they are trading off in the north now appears to be costing them votes in the south.
This is a stunning result for the Lib Dems and while it’s too soon to talk about the southern blue wall crumbling, it’s certainly wobbling.
Migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats is a sign the Rwanda scheme is already working as a deterrent, Rishi Sunak has said.
Sky News’s Trevor Phillips asked the prime minister if migrants finding their way to Ireland was a sign the UK was “exporting the problem”.
Ireland’s deputy prime minister Micheal Martin said on Friday the threat of being deported to Rwanda had caused an influx of migrants to cross the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.
In his interview – which will air in full on Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips show tomorrow at 8.30am – Mr Sunak was asked about the comments, saying they illustrated “the deterrent is… already having an impact”.
“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he said. “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”
Downing Street on Friday rebuffed claims the Rwanda plan was already influencing movements into Ireland, saying it was too early to jump to conclusions on its impact.
Mr Sunak said the comments also illustrate “that illegal migration is a global challenge”.
“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe will follow where the UK has led,” he said.
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Mr Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.
Ireland’s deputy prime minister said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”
Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign minister, said asylum seekers were looking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.
Read more:
Anti-immigrant camp in Dublin ‘not about racism’, residents say
Danger for Sunak if new Act does not stop boats
On the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which finally became law this week after so-called “ping pong” between the Commons and the House of Lords, Mr Sunak said a deterrent was the only way to stop the boats.
“We did just have an important moment this week that in spite of all the opposition from the Labour Party we have passed the Rwanda bill through Parliament in the face of enormous opposition,” he told Sir Trevor.
“That’s important because the only way to fully solve this problem is to have a deterrent, so that if people come to a country illegally, they’re not able to stay, and we can return them.”
Refugee groups in Ireland admit that the threat of being deported to Rwanda is, as the Irish government claims, driving migrants across the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.
Nick Henderson of the Irish Refugee Council told Sky News: “As long as there is a Rwanda policy and the Illegal Migration Act which states that somebody can’t lodge an application for asylum in the UK and have it considered if they enter in an irregular way, it’s going to have knock-on effects on Ireland, that’s plain to see.”
Now that the Rwanda legislation has finally become law, Tory MPs believe the PM can no longer blame his political opponents in parliament, in the Commons and the Lords, if it fails to stop the boats.
The danger for Mr Sunak, even his supporters concede, is that even if planes do take off for Rwanda this summer and some migrants head for Ireland, it may not stop the tide of more illegal migrants crossing the channel.
His comments came after Ireland’s justice minister told a committee of the Irish Parliament she estimates more than 80% of migrants in the Republic had crossed from Northern Ireland.
The UK’s prime minister told Trevor Phillips his focus “is on the United Kingdom and securing our border”.
Read more:
What impact will bill have on immigration?
Sunak staking premiership on Rwanda flights plan
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The Safety of Rwanda Bill became an Act on Thursday, with Number 10 announcing the same day that the first deportation plane had been booked.
After a number of setbacks and delays, the bill passed in parliament earlier this week and then received royal assent, with Home Secretary James Cleverly hailing the approval as a “landmark moment in our plan to stop the boats”.
Anticipating the bill’s passage, the prime minister earlier this week promised the first flights would take off in 10 to 12 weeks – “come what may”.
Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am
According to the prosecutors, the increased scale of the losses justifies the sentence recommendation.
Politics
Humza Yousaf: Scotland’s first minister claims Holyrood election could be called – as vote of no confidence looms
Scotland’s First Minister Humza Yousaf claims a Holyrood election could be called as he refuses to say if he will resign if he loses a looming vote of no confidence.
Speaking exclusively to Sky News in Fife on Saturday, the SNP leader said it was “really disappointing” to learn the Greens will refuse to enter further talks to change their minds on voting against him in a ballot which could prove fatal for his leadership.
Mr Yousaf has today written to all the opposition parties, including Alex Salmond’s Alba party, at Holyrood urging them to rethink their plot to oust him.
Humza Yousaf
The SNP leader said on Saturday that he was leaving it to his rivals to determine his fate.
A Green Party source said the only letter they will accept from the first minister is his resignation.
Mr Yousaf told Sky News: “Well let me say again, that would be really disappointing if that is the Greens’ position.
“As I say, I’ve reached out to them, they are saying publicly that they’re going to support a Conservative motion against independence, first minister and independence government.
“That would be, I think, a poor choice to make.”
Asked if there might be a Scottish election if he doesn’t win the vote, Mr Yousaf replied: “Can’t rule it out.”
Ash Regan. Pic: PA
The casting vote now looks likely to be Alba MSP Ash Regan who sensationally defected from the SNP in the wake of her defeat in the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon last year.
Sky News understands Alba is holding an emergency meeting this weekend to determine how it will cast the key vote.
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Yousaf to ‘fight’ no confidence vote
When asked how SNP members would feel about being “propped up” by Mr Salmond, Mr Yousaf said: “Let me make it really, really clear, I’ll be sending out to anybody I meet with, whoever comes round that table, that these are the priorities of the SNP minority government.
“This is what we’ll be pursuing, this is what we’ll be pushing. It’ll then be up to be it Ash Regan, be it Lorna Slater, be it Patrick Harvie or any of them, to decide what button they push when it comes to the vote of no confidence.”
Read more:
How did we get here – and what happens next?
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The first minister was asked twice whether he would resign if he failed to win the confidence of parliament.
He responded: “Again, I’m not planning to lose the vote of no confidence, I’m planning to win that vote of no confidence.”
Asked if his position would be untenable, he said “Planning to win.”
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