OPEC discord could unleash a new level of volatility in oil market

Published

4 years ago

July 12, 2021

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Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia arrives for the 178th meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria, on March 6, 2020.

Alex Halad | AFP | Getty Images

Disagreement within OPEC could trigger a more a volatile period for oil, with prices jumping on lack of new supply or sinking suddenly if member countries decide to release crude independently.

Oil prices initially surged to a six-year high on news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, ended their meeting Monday with no action and no new meeting date. A proposed plan by OPEC, Russia and other allies to bring 400,000 barrels a day back to the market was disrupted by the United Arab Emirates’ objection to other aspects of the deal.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August traded as high as $76.98 Tuesday before falling back to settle down 2.4% at $74.53 per barrel. Many analysts had expected oil to rise on the discord among members of OPEC, and say prices could still climb despite the sell-off.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better. I still think $85 to $90 per barrel should be the upper end,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. “You’ll see more oil produced. They’re not going to go crazy, but they’re not going to live within the current structures. Russia will lead the charge.”

“It could become a free for all,” he said.

Some analysts had already expected oil spikes into the $100 per barrel range over the course of the next year. The feuding between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates opens a new fissure in OPEC, which now means oil could also tank if members decide to open the spigots.

“Realistically, I don’t think anybody wants to go this way. I suspect cooler heads or rational thinking will prevail,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Melek said there are some wild cards for OPEC that could affect prices. A major one is whether the U.S. and Iran strike a deal on Iran’s nuclear programming, allowing it to return more than 1 million barrels a day back to the market.

Another risk is whether the variants of the Covid virus could affect the economy’s recovery and crimp demand for travel.

OPEC and its partners were able to agree to return 400,000 barrels a day to the market starting in August. But the UAE sought to also have its production baseline increased from 3.1 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels, and that was the sticking point with Saudi Arabia.

After three days of meetings, there was also a deadlock over whether the deal would include an extension of the the plan to the end of 2022, which was opposed by the UAE. Without an agreement, 5.8 million barrels a day, cut from production last year, will remain off the market even as demand rises.

“I think OPEC event risk is back. We had pretty smooth sailing this year, and now this was not priced at all,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Once people start focusing on 5.8 million barrels off the market, I think they might get nervous. How they come back will be important.” The market will be affected much differently based on whether the oil trickles back or the producing countries flood the market with supply.

The friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, formerly strong OPEC allies, comes at a time when the market is increasingly in need of more supply. Analysts expect the world is short of upwards of 2 million barrels a day, based on current production levels and increasing demand. That means oil is being taken from storage, and there could be increasing pressure on prices as the economy rebounds and demand rises.

The U.S. is producing about 2 million barrels a day less than it did pre-Covid, and output has remained at a steady level even as prices rise. The U.S. industry has become more disciplined, due to demands from shareholders and lenders. Oil companies also face sustainability demands and pressure to reduce carbon.

But U.S. drillers do have capacity to increase drilling. “Certainly, $90 oil would encourage a lot of drilling in not only the Permian, but in the Bakken and Rockies,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates said. “I think as prices creep up, one of the things [OPEC+ members] are worried about is a spike higher that would encourage lots of drilling in other parts of the world.”

Lipow said OPEC will also be careful about falling prices and the potential for even lower levels. “If prices fall $5 a barrel, they’ll come to an agreement to signal the market they’re not going to flood it with supplies,” he added.

It also comes as gasoline prices continue to rise and are nearly $1 per gallon higher than this time last year. The national average for unleaded was $3.13 per unleaded gasoline Tuesday, following a weekend where prices at the pump were the highest in seven years for the Fourth of July holiday, according to AAA. If crude prices continue to rise, so will gasoline prices.

“I think gasoline prices could remain above $3 a gallon for the balance of the summer,” said Lipow.

The White House Tuesday said there have been a number of high-level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other partners.

“If prices were rising, I think that would be more of a catalyst for the White House to get involved,” said Croft. “If you have a sell-off you may have people in the administration saying why do I need to be involved in this.”

Kilduff said he does not think the situation will last much longer. “I think we’re in the last innings of it right now. I’m targeting in mid-August, you’re going to start to see gasoline demand going down because kids are going back to school. Refiners will start to dial back,” he said.

Environment

Tesla Robotaxi had 3 more crashes, now 7 total

Published

1 hour ago

November 17, 2025

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Tesla Robotaxi had 3 more crashes, now 7 total

Tesla reported three more crashes involving its Robotaxis in Austin, Texas – now bringing the total to 7 incidents despite low mileage and in-car supervisors preventing more accidents.

Since the launch of the ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin, Texas, where Tesla moved the supervisor from the driver’s seat to the passenger seat, it now has to report crashes to NHTSA.

In the first month of operation in July, Tesla reported three crashes with its Robotaxi service.

The automaker reported one more Robotaxi crash last month, and this one was interesting because it coincided with Tesla announcing that the Robotaxi fleet had traveled 250,000 miles from its launch in late June to early November.

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It revealed Tesla’s current Robotaxi crash rate, which is about 2x higher than Waymo’s, despite in-car supervisors that prevent an unknown number of crashes.

Now, Tesla has reported to NHTSA three more incidents that happened with the Robotaxi fleet in Austin in September:

Report ID	Incident Date	Incident Time (24:00)	City State	Crash With	Highest Injury	Severity	Alleged SV	Pre-Crash Movement	CP Pre-Crash Movement	Narrative
13781-1178	7 SEP-2025	13:08	Austin TX	Animal		No Injured	Reported	Stopped	NM Crossing Roadway	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1178	6 SEP-2025	03:43	Austin TX	Non-Motorist: Cyclist	Property Damage.	No Injured	Reported	Stopped	Moving Alongside Roadway	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1178	4 SEP-2025	20:42	Austin TX	Passenger Car	Property Damage.	No Injured	Reported	Proceeding Straight	Backing	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1168	7 SEP-2025	01:25	Austin TX	Other Fixed Object	Property Damage.	No Injured	Reported	Making Left Turn	NaN	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1150	7 JUL-2025	03:45	Austin TX	SUV	Property Damage.	No Injured	Reported	Stopped	Proceeding Straight	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1145	9 JUL-2025	12:20	Austin TX	Other Fixed Object	Minor	W/O Hospit	alization	Other, see Narrative	NaN	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]
13781-1137	5 JUL-2025	15:15	Austin TX	SUV	Property Damage.	No Injured	Reported	Making Right Turn	Making Right Turn	[REDACTED, MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS INFORMATION]

Unlike other companies reporting to NHTSA, Tesla abuses the right to redact data reported through the system. The automaker redacts the “narrative” for each reported crash, preventing the public from knowing how the crashes happened and who is responsible.

Based on the limited information in Tesla’s reports, we know that one of the new crashes involved a Robotaxi driving into a car backing up, another involved a cyclist, and the last one involved an unknown animal.

Electrek’s Take

My favorite thing about reporting on those is the messages from Tesla fans who say: You don’t know how many of those Robotaxi are responsible for?

It’s funny because I agree, but whose fault is that? Tesla could do like every other company and report the narratives.

Waymo does, and it’s clear that it isn’t responsible for many of the crashes they are involved in. I am sure that’s the case with some of those Tesla Robotaxi crashes.

However, Waymo has hundreds of millions of rider-only autonomous miles, and Tesla has a few hundred thousand, all with a supervisor on board, a finger on a killswitch, ready to prevent further crashes. Who knows how many more crashes Tesla would have had without them?

I expect a few because humans generally have a crash, whether they are at fault or not, every 700,000 miles. Tesla has 7 in probably ~300,000 miles, which should be worrying to anyone, whether the Robotaxis were responsible or not.

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Environment

Hyundai is cooking up a new off-road SUV, and it sure looks electric

Published

2 hours ago

November 17, 2025

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Hyundai is cooking up a new off-road SUV, and it sure looks electric

Hyundai is bringing “something big” to the LA Auto Show this week, and the teaser points to a slick new off-road electric SUV. Here’s our first look.

What is this off-road Hyundai SUV?

The LA Auto Show is just days away, and Hyundai is gearing up to steal the spotlight once again. Last year, it was the IONIQ 9, Hyundai’s first three-row electric SUV. What will it be this year?

Hyundai gave us a sneak peek of a new “extreme off-road show vehicle,” the Crater Concept, ahead of its upcoming debut.

Although details are still pretty slim at this point, the sketch shows a high-riding, rugged SUV, clearly designed for off-roading with massive tires and aggressive wheel arches.

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Hyundai didn’t say what powertrain the off-road SUV will use, but given the closed-off grille and no visible tailpipes, all signs point to it being electric in some way. It could be a battery-electric (EV) or even a fuel-cell-electric vehicle (FCEV).

The Crater Concept looks a bit like the new Nexo, Hyundai’s dedicated hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The updated Nexo introduces Hyundai’s new “Art of Steel” design language, which was first shown on the Concept THREE electric hot hatch in September.

Hyundai said the design theme “combines resilience with artistic form,” which exudes strength and sophistication.

The dour dot lamps on the Crater Concept look about the same as Hyundai’s new “HTWO” lamps, exclusive to its FCEVs.

Hyundai said the Crater Concept has been “crafted to amplify the same spirit and robustness found in Hyundai’s XRT production vehicles,” like the IONIQ 5 XRT, Santa Cruz XRT, and new Pallisade XRT Pro.

The design team at Hyundai Design North America also introduced its new design and ideation studio on Monday, codenamed “The Sandbox” internally.

Hyundai’s new creative hub is exclusively dedicated to creating new outdoor adventure vehicles and rugged Xtreme Rugged Terrain (XRT) gear.

Will the Nexo be next? It sure looks like it. Hyundai will reveal the Crater Concept during a livestream press conference at the LA Auto Show on November 20 at 9:45 am PT. Check back for updates.

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Environment

Electric big rigs get a new fast-charge pit stop in California

Published

2 hours ago

November 17, 2025

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Electric big rigs get a new fast-charge pit stop in California

Electric charge California — Image: Terawatt

Terawatt Infrastructure has switched on its newest commercial EV charging hub in Rialto, California, giving electric truck fleets a new high-speed charging stop along one of the US’s busiest freight routes.

The hub is situated on the eastbound side of I-10 and is designed for heavy-duty fleet use, particularly for trucks traveling from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach through Southern California’s industrial centers.

Neha Palmer, Terawatt CEO and cofounder, said, “Our network enables companies to reduce emissions and run a variety of routes across a number of vehicle classes with the confidence of a dependable charging solution. EV fleets can now travel further, more cleanly, without slowing down their operations.”

The Rialto site is built with high‑speed charging, security, and amenities that support daily freight operations. Here’s what it offers:

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18 pull‑through 350 kW DC fast‑charging stalls
55 bobtail parking stalls for overnight or shift‑based parking
A driver lounge with wifi, climate control, and restrooms
License plate recognition for quick entry
Solar canopies and 100% renewable‑powered charging
24/7 security with cameras and gated access

Terawatt’s first medium- and heavy-duty electric truck charging stop in California, Rancho Dominguez, opened in April.

In September 2024, Terawatt joined some of the world’s largest shippers and carriers to launch the I-10 Consortium heavy-duty EV operations pilot, described as the first-ever US over-the-road electrified corridor. As part of that effort, Terawatt is providing charging infrastructure, including software, operations, and maintenance support, at six of its owned charging hubs along the I-10 corridor.

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