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Just a speed bump? Oil has taken a dive, but Goldman is still bullish

Published

4 years ago

July 20, 2021

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Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.

Nick Oxford | Reuters

A panic-induced sell-off in the oil market triggered by virus concerns has thrown the commodity’s upward march into question — but energy experts at Goldman Sachs don’t appear to be rattled.

Fears over the surging delta coronavirus variant and a fresh supply boost agreement from OPEC+ sent oil prices tumbling down more than 7% as the trading week opened Monday.

The drop was the steepest since March, a rude awakening for oil bulls who’d been enjoying the commodities’ highest prices in 2½ years.

International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $68.42 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in London on Tuesday, down just over 7% from its Friday close of $73.59 a barrel.

Oil analysts were quick to stress the uncertain road ahead for demand as new waves of Covid-19 infections ― many among communities that have high vaccination rates ― threaten the recent months of economic recovery.

“The market is clearly unsettled about the demand outlook. And rightly so. The rise in delta variant cases is raising questions about the sustainability of demand,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a research note Tuesday entitled “Oil takes a beating.”

But analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Senior Commodity Strategist Damien Courvalin see the current setback as merely a speedbump, with little concrete reason for oil bulls to be worried.

Supply driving the bulls?

Oil balances globally are tighter than they were before, despite the agreement between OPEC and its allies over the weekend to cumulatively increase crude production by 400,000 barrels a day on a monthly basis beginning in August.

The International Energy Agency estimated a 1.5 million barrel per day shortfall for the second half of this year compared to its demand predictions in the absence of an OPEC supply deal.

And Goldman predicts the impact from delta to be in the neighborhood of “a potential 1 mb/d (million barrels per day) hit for only a couple months, and even less if vaccines prove effective at lowering hospitalizations in DMs (developing markets), the origin of most summer demand improvements,” as per its latest report.

Goldman’s call is in line with its previously bullish stance, which saw it forecasting Brent hitting $80 per barrel in the second half of this year.

The optimistic recovery outlook, paired with what it sees as a “slower” production ramp-up than expected from OPEC and tighter supply, so far means that “our constructive view on oil prices remains intact.” But the immediate-term demand hit from delta fears triggered a swap in the lender’s quarterly forecasts: It now expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and only reach $80 by the fourth quarter.

“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

Nonetheless, they continued, “we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side.”

The China factor

A less talked-about factor in the future demand picture is the world’s biggest oil customer: China. The recovery of the planet’s second-largest economy is showing signs of losing momentum, which would throw a major wrench in the trajectory for crude.

China’s crude imports were down 2% in May from the previous month and the lowest monthly volume since the year began, according to PVM Associates, falling to 9.77 million barrels per day. In July, they fell further to 9.55 million barrels per day, according to Refinitiv Oil Research. The country’s imports for the first half of 2021 were down 3% from the same period in 2020, and the first contraction of that level since 2013.

“China’s latest GDP data suggest the nation’s V-shaped economic rebound from Covid-19 is cooling,” PVM’s Brennock wrote. “More worryingly, recent customs data out of China is giving the market some mixed signals that are tilted to the bearish side.”

The confluence of uncertain demand due to the delta variant, cooling import levels from China and re-introduced supply from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, suggest bearish signals to the market. But how long the uncertainty will last and whether national vaccine campaigns can offset the mutating virus will ultimately drive the demand picture. In the meantime, supply dynamics, particularly current inventory tightness, continues to give some fuel to the oil bulls.

“Questions are being asked whether the recently announced increase in OPEC+ supply will overwhelm the recovery in demand,” Brennock wrote. “Currently, this seems unlikely, although the evidence from the world’s top oil importing nation appears to favour the bearish narrative.”

Environment

Kia’s new PV5 ‘Spielraum’ is the ultimate electric camping van and it’s coming soon

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3 hours ago

April 3, 2025

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Kia's new PV5 'Spielraum' is the ultimate electric camping van and it's coming soon

Your next camping trip is about to get an upgrade. Kia just dropped two new electric van concepts based on the PV5. With AI-powered home appliances like a refrigerator and microwave, and even a wine cellar, Kia’s new PV5 “Speilraum” is an electric van built for camping and more.

Meet the Kia PV5 Spielraum: An electric van for camping

Kia wasn’t lying when it said its first electric van would offer something for everyone. At the 2025 Seoul Mobility Show on Thursday, Kia and LG Electronics unveiled two new electric van concepts based on the PV5.

The Spielraum electric vans are built for more than just getting you from one place to another. With LG’s AI-powered home appliances, custom interiors, and a wine cellar, the Speilraum models take the PV5 to the next level.

Kia unveiled two new concept vans, the Spielraum Studio and Spielraum Glow cabin. For those wondering, the term Spielraum is German for “Play Space” or leeway. In other words, Kia is giving you more freedom to move.

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The Studio version is designed as a mobile workspace with LG appliances like smart mirrors and a coffee pot. Using AI, the system can actually determine how long your trip will take and will recommend when to use the appliances.

Even more exciting (at least for the vanlifers out there), the Glow cabin converts the PV5 into a mobile camper van.

With a refrigerator, microwave oven, and added wine cellar (you know, for those long trips), Kia’s electric van is sure to upgrade your next camping trip.

Kia and LG signed an MOU and plan to launch production versions of the Spielraum electric vans in the second half of 2026. The South Korean companies are also developing a new series of advanced home appliances and other AI solutions that could be included in the vans when they arrive.

The PV5 will initially be available in Passenger, Cargo, and Chassis Cab setups. However, Kia plans to introduce several new versions, including a Light Camper model.

Kia-PV5-Spielraum-electric-van — Kia and LG Electronics unveil two new PV5 Spielraum concepts (Source: Kia)

At 4,695 mm long, 1,895 mm wide, and 1,899 mm tall, the Kia PV5 passenger electric van is slightly smaller than the European-spec Volkswagen ID.Buzz (4,712 mm long, 1,985 mm wide, 1,937 mm tall).

With the larger 71.2 kWh battery pack, Kia’s electric van offers up to 400 km (249 miles) of WLTP driving range. It can also fast charge (10% to 80%) in about 30 mins to get you back on the road.

Kia will launch the PV5 in Europe and Korea later this year, with a global rollout scheduled for 2026. Ahead of its official debut, we got a closer look at the PV5 on public roads last month (check it out here).

Would you take the PV5 Spielraum Glow cabin for camping? Or are you going with the Studio version? Let us know in the comments.

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Environment

Tesla Cybertruck’s recall fix is a joke that leaves burn mark and gap

Published

4 hours ago

April 3, 2025

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Tesla Cybertruck's recall fix is a joke that leaves burn mark and gap

Tesla Cybertruck owners are starting to get the fix for the truck’s recent recall related to a falling trim. The fix is ridiculous for a $80,000-$100,000 vehicle as it leaves a weld burn and a panel gap.

Last month, Electrek reported that Tesla had quietly put a containment hold on Cybertruck deliveries.

While the reason was not confirmed at the time, we reported that we suspected that it was a problem with the cantrail, a decorative trim that covers the roof ledge of a vehicle. For the Cybertruck, it consists of the highlighted section below:

A week later, Tesla announced that it recalled all Cybertrucks ever made over an issue with the cantrail: it is falling off the Cybertruck.

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Now, some Tesla Cybertruck owners are starting to receive the “fix” for the recall, but it is quite disappointing for what is a $80,000 to $100,000 vehicle.

A Cybertruck owner in New Jersey was already having issues with his cantrail and had to have his tent system installed, so his truck was already at the service center when the recall happened. He was given back his truck with the fix, but he was disappointed with the results, which left a mark on the cantrail and a significant panel gap. He shared pictures via the Cybertruck Owners Club:

According to the recall notice, the fix is as simple as removing the trim, applying some butyl patches, and reapplying the trim with two new nuts to secure it.

In the case of this Cybertruck, the new nut is leaving a significant gap on the chassis that Tesla should never have felt acceptable to deliver to a customer.

As for the burn or rust mark, the owner speculated that it was a weld mark as they weld the new nut, but there’s no welding required in the fix. Therefore, it’s not clear what happened, but there’s clearly a mark where the new nut is located.

Here’s a video of the process:

Electrek’s Take

Tesla is lucky. Many of its owners, especially with newer vehicle programs, like the Cybertruck, are early adopters who don’t mind dealing with issues like this.

However, this is a $80,000 to $100,000 vehicle, and most people expect a certain level of service with those vehicles.

You can’t have a remedy for a manufacturing defect that results in panel gaps and marks like this. It shouldn’t be acceptable, and Tesla shouldn’t feel good about giving back a vehicle like that to a customer.

On top of all of this, this is a pain for Cybertruck owners with wraps. They are going to have to rewrap the trim and it doesn’t look like Tesla is going to cover that.

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Environment

Bitcoin-related startup deals soared in 2024 alongside crypto prices, research shows

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4 hours ago

April 3, 2025

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Bitcoin-related startup deals soared in 2024 alongside crypto prices, research shows

Romain Costaseca | Afp | Getty Images

As crypto prices rallied to record highs last year, venture investors piled into new bitcoin-related startups.

The number of pre-seed transactions in the market climbed 50% in 2024, according to a report published Thursday from Trammell Venture Partners. The data indicates that more entrepreneurs entered the bitcoin arena despite a cautious funding environment for the broader tech startup universe.

Bitcoin more than doubled in value last year, while ethereum rose by more than 40%. Early in the year, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved exchange-traded funds that invest directly in bitcoin and then extended the rule to ethereum, moves that brought a wider swath of investors into the market. The rally picked up steam in late 2024 after Donald Trump’s election victory, which was heavily funded by the crypto industry.

The early-stage startup boom dates back several years. According to the Trammell report, the number of pre-seed deals in the bitcoin-native category soared 767% from 2021 to 2024. Across all early-stage funding rounds, nearly $1.2 billion was invested during the four-year period.

“With four consecutive years of growth at the earliest stage of bitcoin startup formation, the data now confirm a sustained, long-term venture category trend,” said Christopher Calicott, managing director at Trammell, in an interview.

Venture capital broadly has been slow to rebound from a steep drop that followed a record 2021. Late that year, inflation started to jump, which led to increased interest rates and pushed investors out of risky assets. The market bounced back some in 2024, with U.S. venture investment climbing 30% to more than $215 billion from $165 billion in 2023, according to the National Venture Capital Association. The market peaked at $356 billion in 2021.

Trammell’s research focuses on companies that build with the assumption that bitcoin is the monetary asset of the future and use the bitcoin protocol stack to develop their products.