Bill Connelly’s mega offseason previews: Who reigns in Big Ten West?
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4 years agoon
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adminWisconsin plays Wisconsin football. Iowa is Iowa. Northwestern does Northwestern things. Minnesota is increasingly Minnesota. The Big Ten West might have more proven entities than any other division in college football. But for such a reliable division, the West has been pretty difficult to forecast of late.
In 2018, defending champion Wisconsin was voted a runaway favorite to repeat, with only Iowa likely to offer major resistance. Northwestern won the division by three games.
In 2019, turnover prompted a shakeup, and with Scott Frost seemingly ready for a UCF-like second-year leap, Nebraska was voted a slight favorite over Iowa. Wisconsin and Minnesota tied for the title.
In 2020, Wisconsin and Minnesota were picked to once again lead the way. Instead, Northwestern beat out Iowa by a half-game.
We’ll see who ends up the media favorite soon enough. My guess is that, with most of last year’s starters returning — and with both Iowa and especially Northwestern losing quite a few key contributors — Wisconsin will again get the nod. SP+ projects the Badgers and Iowa as the most likely teams to make a run.
Congrats in advance, then, to Purdue for winning the division. Let’s preview the Big Ten West!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents, the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, the Pac-12 North and South, and the top and bottom half of the Big 12.
Jump to a team: Illinois | Northwestern | Purdue | Minnesota | Nebraska | Iowa | Wisconsin
In 2016, Lovie Smith’s first year in charge, Illinois ranked 94th in SP+. In 2020, his last, the Fighting Illini ranked 89th. They were starting over then, and they’re starting over now.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 83rd
Average projected wins: 3.9 (2.2 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins*: Charlotte (81% win probability)
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Relative toss-ups: Rutgers (65%), UTSA (60%), Northwestern (53%)
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Likely losses: at Virginia (28%), Maryland (24%), at Purdue (21%), Nebraska (21%), at Minnesota (14%), Wisconsin (10%), at Iowa (8%), at Penn State (7%)
* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.
Bret Bielema inherits a roster with few guaranteed matchup advantages, but the Illini do face five teams projected outside the SP+ top 50. There are some win opportunities.
What we learned about Illinois in 2020
Smith was never the guy. Unlike other NFL-turned-college coaches, Smith never built recruiting inroads; he never built much momentum either. UI never ranked higher than 70th in offensive SP+ and only once ranked higher than 77th on defense. A former Arkansas and Wisconsin head coach, Bielema also comes from the pros, but he has far more (and more recent) college experience, at least.
The running backs and linebackers are good. Bielema likes his lines meaty and dominant, and while he inherits plenty of beef — five primary OL returnees weigh 310-plus, and defensive tackles Roderick Perry II and Calvin Avery are a combined 650 — the dominance part has lacked.
The guys who line up behind said lines, however, are solid. RBs Chase Brown and Mike Epstein each averaged over five yards per carry despite efficiency issues, and Jake Hansen leads a pretty deep stable of aggressive linebackers.
Beyond that, there are more questions than answers. Brandon Peters is the likely starter at QB, but he has been massively inconsistent, and he’s without leading WR Josh Imatorbhebhe. (Tight end Daniel Barker‘s solid.) The secondary is more experienced but no more stable than the passing personnel.
What we didn’t learn about Illinois in 2020
Is Illinois a “zig when everyone’s zagging” school? In a division with quite a few purveyors of Big Burly Manball, Illinois hired someone who has historically been exactly that. Granted, new offensive coordinator Tony Petersen has some passing success on his résumé, and Ryan Walters is an aggressive, modern defensive coordinator (though he likes to play more man coverage than his charges might be able to offer in 2021). But can Bielema figure out a way to stand out?
Illinois’ history in one chart
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Led by a linebacker named Butkus, Illinois went 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl in 1963. The Illini have been to Pasadena only twice in the 57 seasons since, losing both.
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In 1989, Purdue transfer Jeff George threw for 2,738 yards and led John Mackovic’s Illini to 10 wins and their first bowl victory since 1963.
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Led by Simeon Rice and Kevin Hardy, the Illini ranked in the defensive SP+ top 10 in both 1994 and ’95 … and went a combined 12-10-1 because of a paltry offense.
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Under Ron Turner, Illinois went from 0-11 in 1997, to 10-2 (with a Big Ten title) in 2001, to 1-11 in 2003. Very few schools have the upside and inconsistency to pull that off.
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Ron Zook was fired after leading Illinois to three winning seasons from 2007 to 2011. Winning seasons since: zero.
Much of FBS returns record levels of production; Northwestern does not. If Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats challenge for another West title, it’ll be his most impressive coaching performance yet.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 75th
Average projected wins: 4.9 (2.7 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: Indiana State (94% win probability), Rutgers (68%)
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Relative toss-ups: Ohio (65%), at Duke (63%), at Illinois (48%), Michigan State (43%)
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Likely losses: Purdue (33%), Minnesota (24%), at Nebraska (16%), Iowa (15%), at Michigan (14%), at Wisconsin (7%)
In the past three years, the Wildcats have won two West titles with a 3-9 campaign in between. This could be another setback season.
What we learned about Northwestern in 2020
Mike Hankwitz was phenomenal. After an incredible 13-year run as defensive coordinator, Hankwitz retired at his peak, with Northwestern ranking third in defensive SP+. The pass defense was almost perfect: The Wildcats ranked fifth in passing success rate allowed and gave up almost no big plays. They almost never blitzed — they just forced QBs into constant mistakes.
Former NFL defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil has huge shoes to fill. He has to replace two awesome cornerbacks in Greg Newsome II and Cameron Ruiz (backups A.J. Hampton, Rod Heard and Cameron Mitchell all thrived when they got the opportunity) and two dynamic run defenders in end Earnest Brown IV and linebacker Blake Gallagher. The floor’s pretty high for a Fitzgerald defense, but a drop-off is coming.
What we didn’t learn about Northwestern in 2020
Can the offense remain ranked in the double digits? Northwestern has mastered the art of winning despite its offense, but when the Wildcats fell to 123rd in offensive SP+ in 2019, it was too much to overcome.
In Mike Bajakian’s first year as offensive coordinator, they improved to 93rd. His love of tempo and physicality was an identity and an issue — Northwestern still couldn’t run the ball — but QB Peyton Ramsey frequently bailed the Wildcats out on passing downs. Ramsey and his top four targets are now gone. Sophomore backs Cam Porter and Evan Hull and Bowling Green transfer Andrew Clair have shown potential, but run game consistency is an outright must. It also might be too much to ask for.
The remodeled passing game will likely be crafted around South Carolina transfer and former blue-chip quarterback Ryan Hilinski and receivers JJ Jefferson, Bryce Kirtz, Malik Washington and Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson Jr. That foursome caught a combined 13 balls last year.
Northwestern’s history in one chart
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Ara Parseghian had NU ranked in the AP top 10 for parts of five seasons and briefly had the Wildcats at No. 1 in 1962. He left for Notre Dame in 1964, and things collapsed quickly.
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NU averaged 1.5 wins from 1976 to 1990. What was worse in retrospect: the 34-game losing streak or Dennis Green winning Big Ten Coach of the Year for going 3-8?
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After winning eight games in his first three seasons in charge, Gary Barnett led a 10-2 campaign and took the Purple to Pasadena in 1995. They went 9-3 the next year, too.
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In 2000, Randy Walker and coordinator Kevin Wilson fielded one of the most influential early versions of the spread offense. Their 54-51 win over Michigan was a classic.
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After Walker’s tragic passing in 2006, former star linebacker Fitzgerald was named head coach at age 31. Fifteen years later, NU continues to slowly trend upward.
Since famously destroying Ohio State in 2018, Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers are just 8-16. They are constantly competitive but are no closer to turning a corner than they were three years ago.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 40th
Average projected wins: 5.8 (3.9 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: at UConn (95% win probability), Illinois (79%), at Northwestern (67%), Oregon State (66%)
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Relative toss-ups: Michigan State (65%), Minnesota (45%), Indiana (43%)
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Likely losses: at Nebraska (33%), at Notre Dame (31%), at Iowa (22%), at Wisconsin (18%), at Ohio State (14%)
Look at that road slate! The Boilers play five projected top-30 teams away from West Lafayette, which could keep the win total tamped down pretty far even if they play at a top-40 level.
What we learned about Purdue in 2020
The nibbles are still effective(ish). One of Brohm’s calling cards is the use of an extensive array of quick passes as a complement to the customary run game. More than half of Purdue’s 43.5 passes per game in 2020 were within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. Combined with a decent run game, the Boilers had a lot of ways to gain 5 yards on you.
That’s important! But gaining 20+ yards is helpful, too, and Purdue didn’t do much of that, even before star receiver Rondale Moore opted out to prepare for the NFL draft.
With some combination of quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Jack Plummer, wideouts David Bell and Milton Wright and backs Zander Horvath and King Doerue, the efficiency game will again be strong. But unless a young, new weapon — Marshall WR transfer Broc Thompson? Redshirt freshman Collin Sullivan? — provides a boost in the big-play department, long drives will be Purdue’s only means of scoring.
What we didn’t learn about Purdue in 2020
Will the defense ever bounce back? Since leaping to 32nd in defensive SP+ in Brohm’s first year, Purdue’s average ranking is 76.7. The Boilermakers tackled well and prevented big plays, but they also ranked 99th in passing success rate allowed. The pass rush was nonexistent — 126th in sack rate — and despite solid output from end DaMarcus Mitchell, they had no hope of creating disruption after star end George Karlaftis was lost to injury/COVID.
Three co-coordinators, led by former Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert, will attempt to add a little more havoc to the equation this year. The return of Karlaftis and seven other starters could produce improvement, but how much?
Purdue’s history in one chart
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Purdue’s high point as a program came under Jack Mollenkopf from 1966 to 1968: The Boilers enjoyed three straight AP top-10 finishes and won the Rose Bowl in 1966.
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The key to Purdue’s 1960s success: strong QB play and Leroy Keyes, who combined for 1,989 rushing and 1,186 receiving yards and scored 36 times in 1967-68.
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Despite solid individual talent — Jim Everett, Rod Woodson, Chris Dishman — Purdue suffered 15 losing seasons over 16 years from 1981 to 1996.
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Arriving in 1997, Joe Tiller turned things around immediately. With Drew Brees behind center, Purdue reached its first Rose Bowl in 34 years in 2000.
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With nine wins from 2013 to 2016, the Boilers were back to pre-Tiller lows when Brohm arrived. He made immediate improvements but is struggling to make even more.
PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers were two scores from 5-2 and two from 1-6 last season. They aren’t far from West contention, but only if the defense rediscovers consistency.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 31st
Average projected wins: 7.3 (4.7 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: BGSU (98% win probability), Miami (Ohio) (96%), Illinois (86%), at Northwestern (76%)
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Relative toss-ups: at Colorado (62%), Maryland (59%), at Purdue (55%), Nebraska (55%), at Indiana (42%), Wisconsin (36%)
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Likely losses: at Iowa (31%), Ohio State (30%)
Half of Minnesota’s games are projected within six points, eight within nine. Which tossups they win and lose will have a massive impact on the West race.
What we learned about Minnesota in 2020
There’s probably life after Rashod Bateman. After ranking seventh in offensive SP+ in 2019, the Gophers lost offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, leading receiver Tyler Johnson and leading rusher Rodney Smith, and monstrous linemen Curtis Dunlap Jr. (injury) and Daniel Faalele (opt-out). They still scored 34-plus points three times, still avoided negative plays and, when required, still enjoyed some passing downs magic from quarterback Tanner Morgan (though he did suffer a couple of sketchy performances).
Their level fell a bit in the last two games after star receiver Bateman opted out — they averaged 5.8 yards per play with him and 5.3 without. But the Gophers return every starter except Bateman in 2021, and Dunlap and Faalele are both scheduled to return. Morgan has big-play receivers Chris Autman-Bell and Daniel Jackson out wide and will share the backfield with Mohamed Ibrahim, who rushed for 100+ yards in every game last year (and 200+ twice). This should be a top-30 offense.
What we didn’t learn about Minnesota in 2020
What the heck happened on D? Over Fleck’s first three seasons, Minnesota averaged a 32.0 ranking in defensive SP+. But after peaking at 26th in 2019, the Gophers plunged to 64th last fall. (The fall might have been even worse if they’d played a full season.) They ranked a ghastly 121st in success rate allowed and 98th in explosive play rate allowed. And this was despite ranking third in tackle success rate and getting top-notch performances from end Boye Mafe (4.5 sacks) and corner Coney Durr (33.7 QBR allowed)!
The tackles couldn’t hold up, the linebacking corps was nonexistent from either a playmaking or play-stopping perspective, and while the Gophers dominated third-and-longs, they couldn’t force any. Fleck brought in two tackle transfers — Nyles Pinckney (Clemson) and Val Martin (NC State) — and linebacker Braelen Oliver returns from injury and immediately becomes Minnesota’s most proven blitzer. But this was quite a collapse. It’s hard to project a fast rebound.
Minnesota’s history in one chart
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A late-1930s dynasty, Minnesota scored its first national title in 19 years (and its last since) in 1960, thanks in part to final polls being taken before a Rose Bowl loss.
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The Gophers enjoyed three straight top-10 finishes from 1960 to 1962, driven by a pair of hall of fame (both pro and college) defenders in Bobby Bell and Carl Eller.
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Lou Holtz was head coach for only two years, but he inherited a Gophers team coming off of maybe its worst ever season and had them bowling by Year 2.
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He couldn’t keep raising the bar, but Glen Mason fielded some stout teams from 2002 to 2005, particularly a 10-win 2003 squad led by RBs Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney.
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Fleck’s 2019 squad was UM’s first to win 11+ games since 1904 and its first to finish in the AP top 10 since the 1962 squad of Bell and Eller.
In 2020, Nebraska looked good for a while against Ohio State, beat Penn State … and got blown out by Illinois. It’s been “two steps forward, two back” for Scott Frost’s entire tenure.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 30th
Average projected wins: 7.0 (4.9 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: Fordham (99%), Buffalo (86%), Northwestern (85%), at Illinois (79%), Purdue (67%)
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Relative toss-ups: at Michigan State (65%), Michigan (53%), at Minnesota (45%), Iowa (43%)
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Likely losses: Ohio State (31%), at Wisconsin (26%), at Oklahoma (17%)
The Huskers are projected favorites in six of their first seven games … and one of their last five. Recommendation: Start quickly.
What we learned about Nebraska in 2020
There might be hope for the defense. NU jumped from 63rd to 38th in defensive SP+ thanks to the combination of disruptive run defense and strong red zone execution. There were still weaknesses — a nonexistent pass rush and the resulting inefficient pass defense — but it was a start.
Nine starters return, but linebacker Will Honas, NU’s best pass-rusher, is potentially lost for the season (knee). End Ben Stille and LB JoJo Domann are solid run defenders, while safeties Marquel Dismuke and Deontai Williams and corner Cam Taylor-Britt give the secondary potential. But until the pass rush improves, cracking the top 30 will be difficult.
What we didn’t learn about Nebraska in 2020
Will it ever click for Adrian Martinez? In two years under Frost at UCF, McKenzie Milton went from solid true freshman starter to one of the best players in the country. That set an unfair bar for Martinez, who became the day-one starter when Frost arrived in Lincoln. He hasn’t cleared it.
Martinez has battled injuries and inconsistency — in 20 games in 2019-20, his passer rating was above 140 10 times and below 105 seven times — and with the departure of leading rusher Dedrick Mills and leading receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, he’ll again deal with uncertainty in the skill corps. There’s efficiency potential with receivers Zavier Betts and Levi Falck, tight ends Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek and USC RB transfer Markese Stepp, but big plays were minimal last year. A few chunk plays and easy scores would work wonders for a team that has lost six of its past eight one-score games.
Will it ever click for Frost? After what he had done at UCF, Frost, the former NU quarterback, coming home to turn the program around felt like one of the most no-brainer hires of the past decade. Three years in, he’s got a 0.375 win percentage. As long as you’re still employed, you can still turn things around, but Frost probably shouldn’t wait much longer.
Nebraska’s history in one chart
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When Bob Devaney arrived in 1962, NU had enjoyed one winning season in its past nine years. In 11 seasons he would win two national titles with seven top-10 finishes.
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After going 12-8 in 1967-68, Devaney promoted Tom Osborne to offensive coordinator to spruce things up. They went 42-4-2 with two national titles over the next four years.
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Osborne was the obvious choice when Devaney retired in 1972. He would engineer 14 top-10 finishes in his first 21 seasons but constantly fell short of a national title …
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… until 1994. His Huskers broke through to win the title that year, won a second with one of the best teams ever in 1995, then won a third in 1997, his final season.
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Osborne successor Frank Solich enjoyed three top-10 finishes in six years, but he was fired. NU has zero top-10s since and hasn’t finished ranked at all since 2012.
After an 0-2 start, Iowa won its last six games and jumped to 10th in SP+, its best ranking since 2008. Should we be talking more about the Hawkeyes as legit Big Ten contenders?
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 16th
Average projected wins: 8.3 (6.0 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: Kent State (98%), Colorado State (96%), Illinois (92%), at Northwestern (86%), Purdue (78%), Minnesota (69%), Indiana (67%)
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Relative toss-ups: at Maryland (61%), at Nebraska (57%), Penn State (54%), at Wisconsin (38%), at Iowa State (37%)
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Likely losses: none
The Hawkeyes have three starters to replace on each line, but if the trenches hold up (and they usually do for Iowa), there are no likely losses on the regular-season slate.
What we learned about Iowa in 2020
Ferentzball can still win. Strong, low-blitz pass rush? Frustrating zone defense? Run-first, efficiency-based offense? The Hawkeyes proved that Ferentz’s conservative approach can still reap dividends, winning five games by 14+ and stomping both Penn State and Wisconsin. The run game was as efficient as it’s been in a while, and RB Tyler Goodson and two potential all-conference linemen (Tyler Linderbaum, Cody Ince) give them a chance of replicating that.
Losing both offensive and defensive tackles, plus ace pass-rusher Chauncey Golston, hurts. Strong end Zach VanValkenburg returns, but anything less than domination in the trenches will require more of the other units. That could be an issue.
They need more from the QB position. If everything else goes right, the Hawkeyes don’t ever need much from their signal-caller. But they got the bare minimum from Spencer Petras last season.
The Hawkeyes ranked 92nd in passing-downs success rate, and Petras ranked 64th in Total QBR, and that was with WRs Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith. They’re both gone, and while junior Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown potential, this is a green receiving corps. If Iowa falls short in the West race, it will almost certainly be because the passing game couldn’t produce when it needed to.
What we didn’t learn about Iowa in 2020
Could this be the best Ferentz defense yet? The Hawkeyes have ranked sixth or better in defensive SP+ five times in 13 seasons, but they hadn’t ranked as high as second until last season. If sturdy tackles emerge — and junior Noah Shannon‘s the only DT who had 40+ snaps — they might have a shot at first. Linebacker Jack Campbell appears ready for a star turn, and the entire secondary, including dynamic safeties Jack Koerner and Dane Belton, returns intact.
Coordinator Phil Parker became the state of Iowa’s first million-dollar assistant coach this summer, and he might have the personnel to back up the salary.
Iowa’s history in one chart
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The golden era: From 1953 to 1960 under Forest Evashevski, Iowa enjoyed five top-10 finishes and two Rose Bowl wins. They Hawkeyes reached No. 1 late in 1960 but lost to Minnesota.
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Things quickly fell apart when Evashevski quit to become AD in 1961. The Hawkeyes didn’t enjoy a single winning season between 1962 and 1981.
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Hayden Fry turned things around, peaking in 1985. QB Chuck Long nearly won the Heisman, and the Hawkeyes spent more than a month at No. 1 before finishing 10-2.
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The end of the long Fry era finished poorly (3-8 in 1998), but Iowa nailed his successor hire. Ferentz has produced five top-10 finishes and six years with 10+ wins.
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Per SP+, Ferentz’s most successful team (2015’s 12-2 squad) was also one of his worst, ranking 42nd but riding a string of close wins to within an eyelash of the CFP.
New quarterback … injuries … more COVID problems than most … we might have learned less about Wisconsin than any other FBS team in 2020. At least, the Badgers hope so.
2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 9th
Average projected wins: 9.4 (6.8 in the Big Ten)
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Likely wins: Eastern Michigan (98% win probability), at Rutgers (94%), Northwestern (93%), Army (93%), at Illinois (90%), at Purdue (74%), Michigan (71%), vs. Notre Dame (67%)
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Relative toss-ups: at Minnesota (64%), Iowa (62%), Penn State (60%)
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Likely losses: none
What we learned about Wisconsin in 2020
Jim Leonhard is fantastic. When head coach Paul Chryst promoted the former Wisconsin safety to defensive coordinator in 2017, Leonhard had just one official year of coaching to his name. He’s proved the move astute. The Badgers have ranked in the defensive SP+ top 15 in three of four seasons and climbed to fourth last year.
The Badgers stuff the run on early downs and dominate the pass on passing downs. They blitz well — especially with inside linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal — and corners Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams can handle the man coverage Leonhard asks of them. Leonhard does have to replace two of four primary linemen, but he could start as many as 10 juniors and seniors overall.
Graham Mertz could be, too (with help). Talk about all-or-nothing: In four wins, the Badgers averaged 39 points per game, and Mertz, a blue-chip redshirt freshman, produced a raw QBR of 79.6. He completed 20 of 21 passes in his debut against Illinois.
In three losses, however, the Badgers averaged 6.7 points. Mertz’s QBR: 24.6. He got less help than expected from a rotating RB corps, and leading receivers Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor barely saw the field. Wisconsin was entirely overmatched against good Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana defenses.
Davis and Pryor return, along with sophomore Chimere Dike and tight end Jake Ferguson. Mertz should have fewer bad moments, but the run game has a lot to prove.
What we didn’t learn about Wisconsin in 2020
The run game isn’t infallible. A dominant ground game is in the Wisconsin DNA, but the Badgers ranked just 72nd in rushing success rate, with almost no big-play potential. The line was constantly shuffled, and blue-chip RB Jalen Berger was inconsistent. He hit the corner well but didn’t do much damage between the tackles; he’ll get a push from Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi and a batch of freshmen, but the job of Wisconsin Workhorse Back is his if he’s ready.
And if he’s ready, Wisconsin probably is, too.
Wisconsin’s history in one chart
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In 1962, Milt Bruhn’s Badgers led the nation with 32.2 PPG, finished No. 2 in the AP poll and took No. 1 USC down to the wire in a 42-37 Rose Bowl epic.
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The Badgers wouldn’t get another Rose Bowl shot for decades. From 1964 to 1977, they averaged 3.4 wins per year with one winning season.
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After a decent start to the 1980s, things fell apart again. UW won nine games in four years and asked Notre Dame defensive coordinator Barry Alvarez to turn things around.
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Alvarez’s Badgers from 1993 to 1999: six bowls, three top-10 finishes, three Rose Bowl wins and a Heisman Trophy, via Ron Dayne in 1999. What a turnaround.
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Since Alvarez’s retirement in 2005, UW has enjoyed five more top-10 finishes and attended three more Rose Bowls. One of the steadiest powers in the sport.
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Sports
NASCAR taking shots in experimentation and making many of them
Published
6 hours agoon
July 31, 2025By
admin
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Ryan McGeeJul 31, 2025, 12:38 PM ET
Close- Senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com
- 2-time Sports Emmy winner
- 2010, 2014 NMPA Writer of the Year
You miss 100% of the shots that you don’t take.
It was Wayne Gretzky — aka the hockey guy on the hood of Tyler Reddick‘s Toyota at Darlington Last Year — who made that quote famous. And he would know. The Great One took 5,088 shots in his NHL career, resulting in a record 1,072 goals. We remember so, so many of those times he lit the lamp. We don’t remember the so, so many 4,016 shots he missed.
That brings us to the NASCAR garage, a world where memories of swings and misses seem to linger longer than most, especially when it comes to the hallowed ground that is the Cup Series. You want to start an hours-long impromptu therapy session? Just bring up the early-to-mid-2000s, when NASCAR underwent more simultaneous extreme makeovers than a Beverly Hill bridge club. From the initial iteration of the Chase postseason format and moving the Southern 500 off Labor Day weekend to abandoning Rockingham and the rollout of the winged shoebox-shaped machine that was the Car of Tomorrow, stock car racing self-inflicted too many overhauls at once.
In its search for younger eyeballs and wallets, it became something older eyes no longer recognized and saw longtime fans put their wallets away. Back then, we collectively ripped NASCAR leadership for it all, and we should have.
Now, we should applaud them. Or at least appreciate them. Because, like Gretzky back in the day, NASCAR is taking a lot of shots, but unlike their predecessors two decades ago, now there appears to be more thought behind the timing and impact of those shots. What’s more, if they miss — and they do miss — they don’t keep taking the same shot over and over again even while the rest of us are screaming, “That’s never going to work!” Instead, they take their lumps and move on to the next idea.
Kind of like building a temporary Major League Baseball stadium inside of a racetrack to play one game, as the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds will do this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. Hardball purists can question the idea all they want. Or they can, heaven forbid, have fun for a few hours on a Saturday evening. And if it isn’t fun? Good news: There’s nothing that says it has to be done again. But if it is fun, perhaps they’ll try it again.
“The question is always, what’s your motivation? Why are you doing this? Do you have a larger vision or are you just saying, ‘What the hell’ and throwing stuff against the wall?” reigning Cup champ Joey Logano explained earlier this summer, in the midst of his 17th season in the series. “I don’t necessarily agree with it all, but I do agree with the willingness to try new things, as long we also stick with what made us who we are.”
It’s adding road and street races, of which there were six this season versus so many decades of only two. But it’s also returning to North Wilkesboro and The Rock, even if it is initially the All-Star Race or a Trucks/Xfinity doubleheader. It’s rotating Championship Weekend in coming years to different racetracks, but kicking that off at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the seemingly perfect home of the season finale for nearly two decades, but not since 2019. That move to Phoenix was done because fans had been demanding more short track racing. When people started asking, “Why did we leave Homestead?” it was moved back as the kickoff for the new finale model.
One foot always stepping forward, but with the other foot still planted in the past. It’s hard to do that and maintain one’s balance. So, stop worrying about falling down. Expect it. Instead of fearing a scraped knee or elbow, get back up and try again.
“I think there is a spirit that needs to exist behind decision making, of breaking new ground but also have that ground feel familiar, if that makes sense,” Ben Kennedy said in a conversation with Marty & McGee earlier this year. Kennedy, 33, is NASCAR EVP, chief venue & racing innovation officer, the great-grandson of NASCAR founder Bill France, and himself a former racer in Trucks and Xfinity. He is also the nephew of the man whom most blame for those ripped-out roots of the 2000s, former NASCAR chairman Brian France. “No one wants to forget where we came from. Especially not me, because that’s where I came from.”
See: Moving the Busch Clash from Daytona, where no one had cared about it or attended it for years, to the LA Coliseum. That was very much the brainchild of Kennedy. When all the juice had been squeezed from that event after three years, it was moved back home to North Carolina and Winston-Salem’s Bowman Gray Stadium, where there is never a lack of juice, especially the kind made from fermented corn. How deeply connected is Kennedy to NASCAR’s history? That’s also the racetrack where grandfather Bill France Jr. and grandmother Betty Jane France met, when he was being trained as the heir to the NASCAR throne and she was Miss Bowman Gray Stadium.
Still, one day, the Clash at the Madhouse will also run its course and the event will move to somewhere else, likely another location with a historic stock car backstory.
“That’s the difference, I think, between now and not so long ago,” says Chase Elliott, winner of this year’s inaugural Bowman Gray Clash. “Try it, and if it doesn’t work, fine. Next year, do something else. It seems like before decisions were made before, either they never made a decision at all, or if they did, everyone acted like, ‘Well, we’re stuck with this now forever.’ But you’re not. Other sports try stuff and if it doesn’t work, they move on. We do that now, too.”
When did that mentality change? Well, no one is ever going to put the words “pandemic” and “positive” in the same sentence, but in spring 2020, as NASCAR raced to become the first major sport to return to action, the only path back to the track was to employ a Mr. Fantastic-like flexibility when it came to scheduling. Back-to-back weekends and doubleheaders at the same racetracks. Midweek night races. Letting go of constant worry about what a not-full grandstand might look like on television and giving the audience at home the best show available.
By 2021 and a somewhat return to normalcy, NASCAR found itself freed from old habits. It also helped that old school yearslong contracts with racetracks had expired and a new, shorter-term race date business model had become the norm. Back in the day, the same tracks had the same two weekends for decades at a time, not because anyone in the garage wanted them, but because the contracts demanded it. As those lapsed, so did the “Well, we have to go there because we always have” mentality.
As August arrives and the release of the 2026 Cup Series schedule grows closer, we are putting into the rearview mirror NASCAR’s summer of experimentation. The remaining 14 Cup Series events are races we know on racetracks we know for the most part on weekends where we expect them to be, but only after this weekend’s second-ever Cup visit to the Iowa Speedway. It’s the period at the end of a summer sentence that has raced in Mexico City, swerved through the streets of Chicago, experienced a pair of still-new oval revivals in Nashville and Indianapolis, and in the middle of it all announced a 2026 Father’s Day street event that will be run at a San Diego Naval base.
Oh, and it spent a five-week chunk of that as part of the In-Season Challenge that most rolled their eyes at — Elliott didn’t even realize it existed until he was asked about it in a news conference — but ended up becoming a fun social media-fueled showcase for wunderkind winner Ty Gibbs and oft-forgotten third-generation racer Ty Dillon.
What’s next? No one is entirely sure. And that’s not scary. It’s exciting. As long as whatever new is still framed by the classic standbys. The Daytona 500 in February. The Southern 500 over Labor Day weekend. Martinsville Speedway as the fall chill begins to roll through the Appalachian foothills.
The ideas that worked — moving the Clash, reviving North Wilkesboro, occasional street racing — will stick around. The ideas that seemed to work but curiously went away — midsummer midweek night races and one dirt race per year — will hopefully return. The ideas that were groundbreaking at the time — the Charlotte Roval — will hopefully receive a revival through reimagining.
All of the above while an exploratory Playoff committee continues to discuss a possible points system reboot and the sanctioning body openly covets the addition of another manufacturer to join Chevy, Ford and Toyota. It feels like a lot because it is. However, it is not 2004 all over again. It is instead a thought-out series of ideas, leaning on lessons learned.
Shots taken. A lot of shots missed. But also, a lot of shots made.
Sports
MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Padres get closer Miller in stunning deal
Published
7 hours agoon
July 31, 2025By
admin
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is almost here, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
The San Diego Padres shook up deadline day with a trade for Mason Miller and JP Sears. The Seattle Mariners made a blockbuster move ahead of deadline day with a late-night deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Eugenio Suarez — will Zac Gallen be next to leave the Snakes? Relievers began flying off the board Wednesday, to the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. As the deadline approaches, who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Traded prospects
Latest MLB trade deadline day buzz
Pre-deadline day deal tracker
Click here for grades for every major deal
Mariners make big move in acquiring Suarez
The Diamondbacks sent Eugenio Suarez, among the most coveted players this deadline, to the Mariners for prospects, sources tell ESPN.
Reds get RHP Zack Littell in three-way trade
In a deal that swaps prospects among the Reds, Dodgers and Rays, the Reds get a new starter in Littell, sources tell ESPN.
The Houston Astros are acquiring infielder Ramon Urias from the Baltimore Orioles, sources tell ESPN.
Cubs acquire Soroka for rotation
The Chicago Cubs have acquired pitcher Michael Soroka from the Washington Nationals, sources tell ESPN.
Mets land another reliever, acquire Helsley
The New York Mets are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals for shortstop Jesus Baez and right-handers Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt, sources tell ESPN.
Phillies get Duran in deadline’s biggest deal yet
The Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to a deal to acquire closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins for right-hander Mick Abel and catcher Eduardo Tait, sources tell ESPN.
The Seattle Mariners have acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN.
Mets bolster bullpen in deal with Giants
The New York Mets have acquired right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers from the San Francisco Giants, a source confirms to ESPN.
The Cincinnati Reds have acquired third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for reliever Taylor Rogers and prospect Sammy Stafura, sources tell ESPN.
The Atlanta Braves acquired RHP Tyler Kinley from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for minor league RHP Austin Smith.
Angels and Nationals swap pitchers
The Los Angeles Angels are acquiring relievers Luis Garcia and Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Washington Nationals, with left-hander Jake Eder one player heading back to the Nationals in the deal, sources tell ESPN.
Yankees add outfielder in deal with White Sox
The New York Yankees have acquired outfielder Austin Slater in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.
Blue Jays get bullpen boost in deal with Orioles
The Toronto Blue Jays are acquiring right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed pitching prospect Juaron Watts-Brown, a source tells ESPN.
Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 31
After boosting bullpen, Mets looking to shore up lineup: After acquiring three rental relievers in five days, the Mets remain interested in adding an impact bat before today’s deadline. Two possibilities are Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, sources told ESPN. The Mets prefer to upgrade in center field, and Robert, though having another down year, turns 28 next week and has star potential. Lowe, meanwhile, is a two-time All-Star who has played both corner outfield spots over his eight-year career but hasn’t played the outfield since 2022. — Jorge Castillo
Arizona has more to do after dealing Suarez to Mariners: The D-backs parted ways with their biggest trade asset Wednesday night, trading Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners. And now, with the deadline hours away, the focus shifts to their two front-line starting pitchers, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, both of whom are eligible for free agency at season’s end. Kelly is expected to be traded Wednesday, sources said. Whether Gallen gets moved, though, remains to be seen.
The Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Cubs and Blue Jays are among the contenders who could be in the market for a high-end rental starter. Kelly, a 36-year-old with a 3.22 ERA in 128⅔ innings, can fit all those teams.
But with Gallen, it’s unclear at this point whether the D-backs can net the type of return that would justify being able to extend him the qualifying offer over the offseason, whereby the D-backs would either (A) keep him on a one-year contract or (B) get draft pick compensation between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A (assuming the D-backs remain a revenue-sharing recipient and Gallen signs for at least $50 million). — Alden Gonzalez
Why relievers could be the talk of deadline day: The amount given up for relievers by the Mets and Phillies stunned rival executives, and the assumption within the industry is that this will embolden the potential off-loaders in the last hours before the trade deadline. There continues to be surprise in rival front offices that the Rockies aren’t taking advantage of this dynamic, because they have high-end relievers to offer and other teams think they could make a killing. The Tigers, Mariners, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays are among the contenders still looking for impact relievers in their bullpen — and at some point on Thursday, the teams dealing away players might outnumber the number looking to add.
Among the relievers who could be in play: David Bednar, Pirates; Mason Miller, A’s; Griffin Jax, Twins; Pete Fairbanks, Rays; Danny Coulombe, Twins; Kenley Jansen, Angels; Raisel Iglesias, Braves— Buster Olney
July 30
Angels switching to add mode: Small sample size can matter this time of year: The Los Angeles Angels had prepped for the possibility of trading away players (Taylor Ward, etc.), but after their win Tuesday night, they moved into add mode. They could still deal one or two players — notably closer Kenley Jansen — but the Angels want to make a push. — Buster Olney
A couple of Twins could be on the move soon: The market is picking up for Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran, with many throughout the industry expecting him to be moved at some point Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been heavily involved. But the Seattle Mariners are still looking for ways to aggressively augment their roster (even after trading for lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson), either by adding another late-game option such as Duran, upgrading at third base or both. The New York Yankees also are expected to be in the mix, as are the Los Angeles Dodgers, though it seems as if the reigning World Series champions prefer Minnesota teammate Griffin Jax over Duran at this point.
The Twins theoretically could pair Duran with super-utility man Willi Castro, who also is expected to be moved Wednesday. — Alden Gonzalez
Where Astros, Twins Correa talks stand: While the Houston Astros have interest in Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa and there has been dialogue on a potential trade, the sides are far apart at the moment and no deal is close, sources tell ESPN. — Jeff Passan
Why Mets, Mariners are among teams to watch: As deadline day nears, Seattle and New York are two contenders with the potential to go big before 6 p.m. Thursday arrives. Read more: Buster Olney and Jeff Passan’s latest trade deadline intel
July 29
AL East leaders linked to Kwan, but pitching’s the priority: The first-place Toronto Blue Jays have recently been linked to Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, who seems more likely to be traded in the wake of Emmanuel Clase‘s sudden absence — but Toronto’s priority remains pitching, sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking said.
The Blue Jays could use a top-end starter to complement a rotation fronted by Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, with controllable arms such as Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller making the most sense. But Toronto would also like to upgrade its bullpen — a unit that has lost Yimi Garcia, Paxton Schultz and Nick Sandlin to the injured list in recent weeks.
The Blue Jays entered this season with baseball’s 24th-ranked farm system, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. It would be difficult to envision them filling needs at the top of their rotation and in the back of their bullpen, while also adding an impact bat. The team might ultimately lean on the boost it should receive from Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez and, it hopes, Anthony Santander returning from injury. — Alden Gonzalez
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names who have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he has given up a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” one evaluator said. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Ouch! HBP has teams concerned about Suarez: At the very least, Eugenio Suarez getting hit by a pitch Monday night has concerned some rival evaluators who have talked about dealing for him. “If you pay a price like that, you’re going to want to feel good about what you’re getting,” one staffer said. And generally, hand/wrist injuries linger for hitters. — Olney
Reds eye Suarez, but there’s a backup plan: The Cincinnati Reds are among the teams that have been in contact with the Diamondbacks about Eugenio Suarez, but if Arizona finds a deal elsewhere, the Reds might pivot to another third baseman on the market — Gio Urshela of the A’s, Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Pirates, one of the Mets’ infielders (Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Mark Vientos), etc. — Olney
Want one of these aces? It’s gonna cost ya: There are a number of contenders looking for a frontline starting pitcher — Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, etc. — but the cost on two of the most prominent starters, the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Padres’ Dylan Cease, remain extremely high in the minds of some evaluators. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Then again … Other teams think Tampa Bay, which slumped through a brutal July, has joined the Diamondbacks as one of the primary subtractors in the market. Following the trade of Danny Jansen to Milwaukee, other names include starting pitcher Zack Littell (“He’s going to be traded,” one evaluator said), relief pitchers Garrett Cleavinger and Pete Fairbanks, and position players Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe. But one rival executive says they believe Diaz will have to be pried away from the Rays, given his $12 million option for next season. — Olney
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could do very well in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current cost to make those deals as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
Sports
Schedule superlatives: The toughest, easiest and most interesting matchups of 2025
Published
11 hours agoon
July 31, 2025By
admin
-
Chris LowJul 31, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
There isn’t much surrounding college football that isn’t in something of a state of flux.
The discussions surrounding the future playoff format bounce around like a pingpong ball. Schools are for the first time in history sharing revenue with athletes. Conference realignment marches onward, and the overhaul of rosters via the transfer portal continues at a dizzying pace.
All the while, the start of the 2025 season is less than a month away.
What that means is it’s time to take a magnifying glass to the 2025 schedule and hand out some superlatives, some flattering and some not so flattering. All rankings referenced are from ESPN’s post-spring Top 25, and Notre Dame, despite being an independent, will be considered a Power 4 school for our purposes.
Before we dive in, an annual reminder: Schedule strength tends to look a lot different in July than it does in late October.
Toughest overall Power 4 schedule: Florida
A year ago Billy Napier and his Florida football team epitomized resiliency. Despite an ugly 1-2 start, Napier never lost the locker room and guided the Gators to four straight wins to end the season with an 8-5 finish. But just like a year ago, Florida’s schedule is again brutal.
The Gators are the only team in the SEC facing the league’s three highest-ranked preseason teams (No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Georgia and No. 6 LSU), with the Georgia and LSU games away from home. The Sept. 13 trip to LSU is followed by a trip to No. 21 Miami the next week. In a five-week stretch from Sept. 13 through Oct. 11, which includes a bye on Sept. 27, Florida plays at LSU, at Miami, at home against Texas and at Texas A&M. The Gators’ annual showdown with Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov. 1 is followed by back-to-back SEC road games against Kentucky and No. 24 Ole Miss.
Wisconsin is a close second in this category. Luke Fickell and the Badgers could use a strong bounce-back season after losing five in a row to end 2024 and missing a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Like Florida, Wisconsin faces six ranked teams, including four of the top 11 — at No. 9 Alabama on Sept. 13, home against No. 5 Ohio State on Oct. 18, at No. 8 Oregon on Oct. 25 and home against No. 11 Illinois on Nov. 22.
Easiest overall Power 4 schedule: Wake Forest
Jake Dickert takes over for Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and has his work cut out to get the program back into the upper tier of the ACC. But he faces only one preseason Top 25 team in 2025: SMU at home Oct. 25, with a bye the preceding week. The Deacons avoid Clemson, Miami and Louisville in the ACC. Their first four games are at home along with two of their last three games. A game at No. 24 Ole Miss was replaced by a trip to Oregon State, meaning there are no Power 4 nonconference foes on the Deacons’ schedule. Their only back-to-back conference games on the road are against Florida State and Virginia on Nov. 1 and Nov. 8, and those teams finished a combined 7-17 last season.
Missouri, coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 10 wins under Eliah Drinkwitz, has a schedule tailor-made to make it three straight seasons with double-digit wins. The Tigers’ first six games are at home, and they avoid Texas, Georgia and LSU in the SEC. Their toughest nonconference game is against Kansas at home.
Toughest overall non-Power 4 schedule: Kent State
This one doesn’t seem fair. Kent State went 1-23 over the past two seasons, fired coach Kenni Burns in April and replaced him with interim coach Mark Carney. Not only do the Golden Flashes have to play three Power 4 nonconference teams on the road, including No. 16 Texas Tech on Sept. 6 and No. 25 Oklahoma on Oct. 4, but they face MAC preseason favorite Toledo on Oct. 18 on the road.
South Florida’s schedule is equally daunting. The Bulls open the season against Boise State, Florida and Miami in successive weeks (Florida and Miami on the road) and face American Athletic Conference contenders Navy, Memphis and North Texas on the road.
Easiest overall non-Power 4 schedule: Liberty
The Flames are a repeat winner here, which means Jamey Chadwell’s club should be a prime candidate to be the Group of 5 representative in the playoff. Liberty doesn’t face any Power 4 nonconference opponents, although James Madison’s trip to Lynchburg on Sept. 20 will be a game to watch. The toughest Conference USA challenge might come in Week 2 against Jacksonville State on the road. Otherwise, Liberty received a favorable draw in the conference. In other words, not returning to the Conference USA championship game for the second straight season would be a big disappointment on the Mountain. Elsewhere, North Texas’ path to the American championship game is helped by avoiding Tulane and Memphis, and its toughest nonconference game is against Washington State at home Sept. 13.
Toughest Power 4 nonconference schedule: Clemson
This was a coin flip between Clemson and Stanford until quarterback Jake Retzlaff departed BYU. Now the trip to No. 10 BYU on Sept. 6 doesn’t look quite as daunting for the Cardinal, who end the season Nov. 29 at home against No. 7 Notre Dame.
So Clemson gets the nod. The Tigers open the season Aug. 30 at home against No. 6 LSU, then close the season Nov. 29 on the road against bitter rival South Carolina, which is ranked No. 13. Clemson also faces Troy, a top contender in the Sun Belt Conference, at home a week after the LSU opener.
Miami has three tough early-season matchups out of conference, albeit all three at home, against No. 7 Notre Dame on Aug. 31, South Florida on Sept. 13 and No. 19 Florida on Sept. 20.
Easiest Power 4 nonconference schedule: Penn State
It’s Penn State by a mile, or about as long as it takes to get to Happy Valley from just about any major airport. This should be James Franklin’s best and most balanced team, but one that will be untested when it rolls into Big Ten play against Oregon at home Sept. 27. The “warmups” come in the first three weeks of the season, all at home, against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova, followed by a bye week before facing the Ducks.
We can’t let Indiana completely off the hook. For the second straight season, the Hoosiers won’t play a nonconference game against a Power 4 foe. They open the season with three straight home games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State (without Larry Bird). To be fair, Indiana is also the only Big Ten team that has to play Penn State and Oregon on the road.
Must-see nonconference games
To be clear, neutral-site games don’t count for this list:
• Auburn at Baylor, Aug. 29
• Utah at UCLA, Aug. 30
• Texas at Ohio State, Aug. 30
• Notre Dame at Miami, Aug. 30
• LSU at Clemson, Aug. 30
• Alabama at Florida State, Aug. 30
• Michigan at Oklahoma, Sept. 6
• Kansas at Missouri, Sept. 6
• Texas A&M at Notre Dame, Sept. 13
• Florida at Miami, Sept. 20
• USC at Notre Dame, Oct. 18
• Clemson at South Carolina, Nov. 29
Better be careful
Some sneaky good games matching Power 4 teams against Group of 5 teams:
• Toledo at Kentucky, Aug. 30
• James Madison at Louisville, Sept. 5
• UCLA at UNLV, Sept. 6
• Army at Kansas State, Sept. 6
• South Florida at Florida, Sept. 6
• Arkansas State vs. Arkansas, in Little Rock, Sept. 6
• Duke at Tulane, Sept. 13
• Arkansas at Memphis, Sept. 20
• Tulane at Ole Miss, Sept. 20
• BYU at East Carolina, Sept. 20
• San José State at Stanford, Sept. 27
• Boise State at Notre Dame, Oct. 4
Jeff Lebby, in his second season, will lead the Bulldogs against four playoff teams from a year ago at Davis Wade Stadium: Arizona State on Sept. 6, Tennessee on Sept. 27, Texas on Oct. 25 and Georgia on Nov. 8. If that’s not enough, the Bulldogs close the season at home Nov. 28 in their annual Egg Bowl matchup with No. 24 Ole Miss. Nearly 80% of Mississippi State’s roster is made up of first- or second-year players with 60 new players added for this season.
Easiest Power 4 home schedule: Texas
Only one preseason Top 25 team will visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium this season, and that’s at the very end when No. 23 Texas A&M makes the 105-mile trip to Austin. After opening against No. 5 Ohio State on the road, Texas plays San José State, UTEP and Sam Houston the next three weeks at home. Other than Texas A&M, Texas’ other two home dates the final month of the season are against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and Arkansas on Nov. 22. In an odd twist, Texas doesn’t play a game in Austin in the month of October. Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State are all on the road, and the Red River Showdown game against Oklahoma, as always, is in Dallas.
Toughest Power 4 schedule away from home: Syracuse
Fran Brown was a first-year head coach last season, but he showed the poise and precision of a 20-year veteran in leading Syracuse to 10 wins, only the third time since 2000 that the Orange had won 10 games. As an encore, he faces an enormous challenge. Syracuse lost most of its key playmakers from a year ago and faces a brutal schedule away from home. The Aug. 30 opener against Tennessee in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be a quasi-home game for the Vols, and that’s just the start. The Orange play at No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 20, at No. 15 SMU on Oct. 4, at No. 21 Miami on Nov. 8 and at No. 7 Notre Dame on Nov. 22.
Easiest Power 4 schedule away from home: Missouri
The Tigers play eight of their 12 games this season at Faurot Field, and only one of their four road games is against a ranked opponent, No. 25 Oklahoma on Nov. 22. The other three are against Auburn (Oct. 18), Vanderbilt (Oct. 25) and Arkansas (Nov. 29). It’s never easy on the road in the SEC, but the Tigers are avoiding some of the most treacherous stops.
Toughest close to the season: Rutgers
Granted, Rutgers’ schedule outside the Big Ten is cushy (home games the first three weeks against Ohio University, Miami (Ohio) and Norfolk State), but the close to the season — ouch! Rutgers’ last six games are No. 8 Oregon at home Oct. 18, at Purdue on Oct. 25, at No. 11 Illinois on Nov. 1, Maryland at home Nov. 8, at No. 5 Ohio State on Nov. 22 and No. 1 Penn State at home Nov. 29. The Scarlet Knights are the only Big Ten team this season that has to play Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon.
Easiest close to the season: Illinois
Illinois is poised for another banner season under Bret Bielema with most of its key players back from the 10-win season a year ago. The Fighting Illini’s schedule is front loaded as they play four of their final six games at home, and three of the last four are home games against Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern. The only road game in that stretch is at Wisconsin on Nov. 22. Illinois won’t face a preseason Top 25 opponent the last five weeks of the season.
Toughest three-game stretch: Oklahoma
The criteria for this category are three games in three consecutive weeks with no byes. Brent Venables and the Sooners will have a chance to build some momentum, but they face an October grind that could break any team. It starts with No. 3 Texas in Dallas on Oct. 11, followed by a road game at No. 13 South Carolina on Oct. 18 and then a home game against No. 24 Ole Miss on Oct. 25. If you want to stretch it out to four games, things don’t get much better for the Sooners. They go on the road the next week to play Tennessee on Nov. 1 in Neyland Stadium. Three of those four games are away from home.
Basking in Florida’s sunshine
Miami doesn’t play a game outside the state of Florida until traveling to face SMU on Nov. 1. Six of the Hurricanes’ first seven games are at home at Hard Rock Stadium, and a seventh is in Tallahassee against Florida State on Oct. 4. Included are three straight all-Florida affairs against South Florida on Sept. 13, Florida on Sept. 20 and at FSU on Oct. 4
Dabo and the SEC
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney gets another shot at the SEC to open the season in the Battle of Death Valleys on Aug. 30 against LSU. Clemson is 18-12 vs. the SEC since the start of the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost seven of their past 10 games to SEC opponents, beginning with a 42-25 loss to LSU in the 2019 national championship game.
Mountains are calling
From just east of Marys Peak, Oregon State will travel across the country to the Blue Ridge Mountains to take on Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina, on Oct. 4. Talk about two places that are hard to get to, but two gorgeous campuses.
Taking Saturdays off
Houston plays three Friday games (Sept. 12 vs. Colorado, Sept. 26 at Oregon State and Nov. 7 at UCF). The Cougars open the season on a Thursday at home, Aug. 28 vs. Stephen F. Austin.
Ryan Silverfield has guided Memphis to 10 or more wins in each of the past two seasons, a first in program history, and enters his sixth season amid big expectations in the American Conference with a roster full of new faces via the transfer portal. The Tigers are 11-2 at home the past two years, which bodes well for 2025. Just about all of Memphis’ toughest games are at home, including Arkansas’ visit on Sept. 20. In conference play, top contenders South Florida (Oct. 25), Tulane (Nov. 7) and Navy (Nov. 27) all come to Memphis’ Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Avoiding campuses
Tennessee, for the 11th straight year, will not play a nonconference regular-season game on an opposing team’s campus. The last time the Vols played a nonconference road game (not counting the playoff game last season at Ohio State) on the opposing school’s campus was Sept. 13, 2014, when they lost 34-10 to No. 4 Oklahoma in Norman. The Vols did win at Pittsburgh in 2022, a 34-27 overtime victory, but the Panthers play their home games at the Steelers’ stadium, Acrisure Stadium, formerly known as Heinz Field, which stands along the Ohio River on the north side of Pittsburgh. The opener against Syracuse in Atlanta will be Tennessee’s sixth neutral-site game in the past 10 years.
Power outages
Houston, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Washington don’t play any nonconference games against Power 4 opponents in 2025. Every school in the ACC except Wake Forest plays at least one Power 4 nonconference team, and nine schools (Boston College, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, Stanford and Virginia Tech) play two nonconference games against Power 4 foes. As ACC commissioner Jim Phillips likes to say, “Go ACC!” There are a few caveats. Some of the teams not playing Power 4 opponents are playing Oregon State or Washington State, and that includes Ole Miss. Wake Forest pulled out of the back half of its home-and-away series with Ole Miss last season, and the Rebels had to scramble, adding Washington State at the last minute.
Jet-lagged Huskies
The only time all season Washington plays back-to-back home games is against Colorado State and UC Davis to open the season. From there, it’s back and forth and all over the map for the Huskies. Consider: After playing at Washington State in Pullman on Sept. 20 (not an easy trip), Washington comes back home on Sept. 27 to face Ohio State, then hits the road the following week to play Maryland on Oct. 4, then back home against Rutgers on Oct. 10 (a Friday), back on the road against Michigan on Oct. 18, back home against Illinois on Oct. 25, and then after a bye, back on the road against Wisconsin on Nov. 8. Thank goodness for charter flights.
Vols flopping Dawgs and Gators
Georgia and Tennessee meet Sept. 13 in Knoxville, the earliest the teams have met in a season since 1995 (Sept. 9) when Kirby Smart was a freshman defensive back for the Bulldogs. The Vols won 30-27 in the final seconds on a field goal. Smart never beat Tennessee as a player, but he has won eight straight in the series as a coach. Tennessee, meanwhile, doesn’t face Florida until Nov. 22 at the Swamp, the latest those teams have played (not counting the 2020 COVID season) since 2001 (Dec. 1) when Tennessee won 34-32 in the Swamp in a game that was postponed because of the Sept. 11 attacks. Tennessee is a combined 12-38 against Georgia and Florida since 2000, 2-6 under Josh Heupel.
Hogs debuting on the SEC road … again
For the third straight season, Arkansas opens its SEC season on the road, the only school in the league having to play three straight openers away from home. The Hogs won 24-14 last season at Auburn and lost 34-31 at LSU in 2023. Arkansas opens SEC play this season at Ole Miss on Sept. 13. In fact, Arkansas plays its first two SEC games on the road, traveling to Tennessee on Oct. 11. Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt are the only three SEC teams that have to play their first two league games on the road. All five of Arkansas’ road opponents this season won at least nine games a year ago, and four (Memphis, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas) won 10 or more games.
Border War returns
Kansas and Missouri will renew their series Sept. 6 in Columbia, the first time they’ve played since 2011. It’s the first of a four-game agreement to bring back the series, which dates to 1891, and will be Kansas’ first visit to Faurot Field since 2006, when Missouri won 42-17. Their 2011 meeting was at Arrowhead Stadium, with Missouri winning 24-10. The teams had met 93 years in a row before the series was not renewed following the 2011 game; at the time, it was the second-most-played rivalry in Division I-A football history.
Catching up with old teammates
With full-scale free agency alive and well in college football, more and more players from the transfer portal are going up against their former schools and teammates. Some notable examples this season:
• Duke quarterback Darian Mensah at Tulane on Sept. 13
• Ole Miss offensive guard Patrick Kutas vs. Arkansas on Sept. 13
• Oregon cornerback Theran Johnson at Northwestern on Sept. 13
• Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma on Sept. 20
• Texas A&M receiver Mario Craver vs. Mississippi State on Oct. 4
• Ohio State tight end Max Klare at Purdue on Nov. 8
• Texas Tech defensive tackle Lee Hunter vs. UCF on Nov. 15
• Missouri receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. vs. Mississippi State on Nov. 15
• Oregon offensive guard Emmanuel Pregnon vs. USC on Nov. 22
• Oregon defensive tackle Bear Alexander vs. USC on Nov. 22
• LSU receiver Nic Anderson at Oklahoma on Nov. 29
Homecoming for Helton
Clay Helton gets a homecoming, sort of anyway. Helton, with a new five-year contract after winning eight games last season at Georgia Southern, returns to Los Angeles when the Eagles face USC on Sept. 6 in the Coliseum. With one game as interim head coach in 2013, Helton was USC’s official head coach for seven seasons before being fired early in the 2021 campaign. He was 46-24 overall and won the Rose Bowl following the 2016 season (52-49 over Penn State), which is the Trojans’ last appearance in the Rose Bowl. The next season, Helton guided the Trojans to the 2017 Pac-12 championship, which is their last conference championship.
They’re playing where?
It’s always interesting (and entertaining) to see Power 4 teams playing on the road at Group of 5 teams, especially when it’s on campus. Case in point: Bill Belichick’s second game as North Carolina’s coach will come Sept. 6 against in-state foe Charlotte in 15,300-seat Jerry Richardson Stadium. Some of the others this season: West Virginia at Ohio University on Sept. 6 and Oklahoma at Temple (Lincoln Financial Field), Iowa State at Arkansas State, SMU at Missouri State and Utah at Wyoming, all Sept. 13.
Not very Belichickian
Speaking of Belichick, he didn’t get a bad draw in his first season at North Carolina. And, yes, we know he’s not one to look ahead until it’s “on to whomever.” But the Tar Heels face TCU at home in the Sept. 1 Monday night opener, and if they win that one, it’s conceivable they could be 5-0 going into their home game against Clemson on Oct. 4. The Tar Heels get a bye week prior to the Clemson game after playing at UCF on Sept. 20.
Fear the Terps
Maryland dipped to 4-8 a year ago after three straight winning seasons under Mike Locksley. The Terps’ schedule in 2025 is manageable enough that they should have a chance to return to their winning ways. Their nonconference schedule consists of Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois and Towson, all at home, and Maryland is the only Big Ten team that avoids Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon. The Terps have three ranked teams on their schedule, and two of those games (Indiana and Michigan) are at home.
Run-down Red Raiders
Texas Tech, ranked No. 15 in the preseason, is pushing all its chips in on this season and reportedly spent more than $28 million on its roster. Led by coach Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders are looking to reach double-digit wins for the first time since the late Mike Leach led Tech to 11 wins in 2008. But to do it, they’re going to have to push through a seven-week gauntlet of Big 12 games. That’s right, seven straight Big 12 games without a bye from Oct. 4 to Nov. 15 — at Houston, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, vs. BYU and vs. UCF.
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