Nebraska and the Big Ten: A decade of struggle for stability
More Videos
Published
4 years agoon
By
adminOn the 10th anniversary of Nebraska‘s entrance into the Big Ten, interim athletic director Garrett Klassy officially began his term overseeing the Huskers’ program.
The irony isn’t lost on those who have lived through a jagged first decade in the conference.
Athletic director Bill Moos’ abrupt retirement last month isn’t the most surprising nor the most damaging thing Nebraska has absorbed since its celebrated Big Ten arrival on July 1, 2011. But Moos’ exit epitomizes the turbulence for a football program on its third coach, Scott Frost, and that is welcoming its fourth athletic director, Trev Alberts, since 2012. Alberts, a former All-America linebacker at Nebraska, officially begins his term Monday. But leadership instability has hurt Nebraska in a league, and especially a division, defined by long coaching and administrative tenures.
Other factors have contributed to the Huskers’ subpar results. The recruiting adjustment has been rocky at times. The Big Ten also is stronger than when Nebraska arrived, both financially and on the field.
Still, few expected Nebraska to complete its first Big Ten decade at 68-55, 43-41 in conference play. Since 2011, Nebraska ranks 54th nationally in win percentage (.553) and eighth among Big Ten teams. The Huskers have yet to win a league title (their last was in 1999). Their lone division championship came back in 2012, which preceded a 70-31 loss in the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin, a team only in the game because both Ohio State and Penn State were ineligible.
The extended stretch of mediocrity is jarring for a Nebraska program that won five national titles between 1970 and 1997. From 1963 to 2001, the Huskers captured 22 conference championships (outright or shared) and logged 28 AP top-10 finishes and 22 seasons with 10 or more wins. During the span, Nebraska had only 11 seasons with three or more losses, none with more than four and none with more than three between 1969 and 2001.
The Huskers now have lost five or more games in five of the past six seasons.
“Nebraska is struggling to find its foothold from a leadership standpoint, a style standpoint, a recruiting standpoint,” said Damon Benning, a former Huskers I-back who played on national title teams in 1994 and 1995, and now hosts a daily sports talk radio show in Omaha. “Meanwhile, the conference just keeps getting better and better.
“A double whammy.”
The question is how much of Nebraska’s struggles can be attributed to joining the Big Ten, and how much can be tied to internal reasons. To find out, ESPN spoke to people in and around Nebraska’s program since the Big Ten arrival. Some were granted anonymity to speak freely about what they observed. Attempts to interview Frost and Moos were unsuccessful.
Those who spoke describe a program still searching for its identity in an improving conference. Nebraska is rightfully proud of its championship tradition but also somewhat hamstrung by the past, especially as the program navigates recruiting realities and other areas where it no longer holds clear advantages.
The Big Ten has provided the stability Nebraska needed, and the affiliation is still celebrated in academic circles. But others cling to Big Eight nostalgia and haven’t embraced Nebraska’s position in its newest league.
“You’ve got to have a plan, and the plan can’t be: ‘We’re going to win a national championship, we’re going to get back to national contention,” a source said. “The plan has to be: ‘Now that we are in the Big Ten, what are the challenges?’ I’m not saying temper expectations, but you have to get to: What are we all about, and how are we going to get there?”
Nebraska’s arrival in the Big Ten was greeted with excitement and exhales.
The Huskers needed a permanent home. The Big 12 had nearly been pillaged by the Pac-12, and teams such as Missouri and Colorado were looking to leave. Plus, the league had become increasingly Texas-centric.
“There was concern at the time as to whether the Big 12 would survive,” said Harvey Perlman, Nebraska’s chancellor from 2001 to 2016. “I wouldn’t call it desperation, but there was certainly some uneasiness about where Nebraska was going to find itself athletically. Finding a stable home in the Big Ten was certainly a relief.”
Nebraska’s academic community celebrated the move. The Big Ten’s Committee on Institutional Cooperation, an academic consortium between top research institutions, provided “a boost to our reputation,” Perlman said.
“On the academic side, it’s been great; there’s a lot of research and collaboration,” said Jo Potuto, a constitutional law professor at Nebraska and the faculty athletics representative since 1997. “On the athletic side, for everybody it has been a surprise Nebraska has not been more competitive, certainly not in football.”
The football struggles haven’t translated to other programs. Nebraska’s powerhouse volleyball team won national titles in 2015 and 2017, and owns three Big Ten titles. The baseball team has made five NCAA tournament appearances since 2014 and this spring won its second conference title.
Before the Big Ten move, Potuto attended a meeting athletic director Tom Osborne held with the school’s head coaches. Osborne, the Hall of Fame Huskers coach from 1973 to 1997, wanted the coaches’ input. Some mentioned recruiting and how it would change in a Midwest-based league. Ideally, they would have liked longer to prepare for the move. But none stated direct opposition, Potuto said.
Nebraska football entered the Big Ten following consecutive appearances in the Big 12 championship, losing second-half leads both times. The Huskers were 29-12 (17-7 Big 12) with two AP top-20 finishes under coach Bo Pelini. They didn’t dominate recruiting but had signed ESPN’s No. 17 class in 2011, and they did well in key talent areas such as Texas and California.
“We were pretty well into the Top 25 and went to a bowl game every year,” Osborne said. “We weren’t where we were in the ’90s, but we were in pretty good shape at that time.”
As a new Big Ten member, Nebraska received a smaller revenue share — $10 million-$11 million less than others for the first three years. This angered some key people around the university, sources said. But money never has been a major impediment at Nebraska. The football team, meanwhile, went 9-4 in its Big Ten debut season, finishing third in the Legends division and No. 24 in the AP poll.
Nebraska won the division the next year, and continued to compete. The Huskers had good to decent records against Penn State (3-0), Iowa (3-1), Michigan (2-1), Michigan State (2-2) and Ohio State (1-1) during their first four years in the Big Ten. They struggled with Wisconsin, going 1-3, including the drubbing in Indianapolis, but went 37-16 overall (22-10 Big Ten) with three top-25 finishes.
Was Nebraska a national contender? No. The team got blown out too often, and Pelini’s fiery nature got him in trouble, ultimately leading to his firing after the 2014 regular season. But these days, the Huskers likely would take those records in a heartbeat.
Why has Nebraska backslid so much since 2014, despite being in a division without any teams that match its championship tradition? The answer starts with recruiting.
Nebraska entered the Big Ten with some recruiting momentum, but Pelini had built his team for the Big 12, largely with players from the Big 12 footprint. The Huskers’ designed their two-gap defense to stop the spread offenses of the Big 12, not the bigger, power-based units of the Big Ten. Nebraska no longer was a national recruiting heavyweight, but the program still knew where to go to find the players it needed.
The Big Ten move has thrown Nebraska’s recruiting “out of whack,” a former assistant said. Nebraska has tried to pivot toward recruiting the Midwest and East Coast, but hasn’t achieved significant traction.
“There’s a little bit of a void in terms of a recruiting home,” he added. “Where are you located?”
When Mike Riley arrived at Nebraska from Oregon State to replace Pelini, he spent time studying “how to recruit for Nebraska in the world of the new conference.” Riley and his staff focused on a 500-mile radius from Lincoln, which included Big Ten hub markets such as Chicago and Minneapolis, but also Kansas City and Denver.
They also prioritized Texas, which Riley had recruited for years while at Oregon State.
“That part of it wasn’t the same because you didn’t have those yearly games down in Texas, where you could sell that to the parents,” Riley said. “The players are so great and there had been a history. But it’s hard to keep that history going when you don’t have that old connection.”
Coaches say Nebraska’s location, its conference and an accelerated recruiting cycle all have magnified obstacles. Nebraska isn’t the easiest campus to access, and most recruits make their college choices before taking official visits.
“They play in the Big Ten at [11 a.m. Central time]. If [a recruit] played on Friday night, how does he get there for kickoff?” a former assistant said. “You’re not flying into Lincoln directly. When you’re in the Big 12, you can recruit Texas and Oklahoma and get kids to come.”
The coach added that recruits based in areas with other Power 5 schools must elect to “fly over everybody” to reach Nebraska. There are recruiting challenges within the Big Ten, too, being located in the least populated of the league’s 11 states.
“You’re not going to out-recruit Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan,” another former assistant said. “You’re not going to out-recruit Michigan State. Minnesota has access to more kids faster because they have a national hub airport. Wisconsin is closer to more population bases.”
Riley, who went 9-4 in 2016, thought his recruiting strategy would pay off with Nebraska’s 2018 class, which initially included commitments from four-star prospects such as wide receiver Joshua Moore and cornerbacks Brendan Radley-Hiles, Mario Goodrich and Chase Williams. All four would decommit — they signed with Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and USC, respectively — as Nebraska in 2017 endured its worst season (4-8) since 1961, leading to the ousting of athletic director Shawn Eichorst and then Riley.
New hope arrived with Frost, a native Nebraskan and a quarterback for Osborne’s final national championship team in 1997. Frost engineered a historic turnaround at UCF, which went 13-0 with a Peach Bowl victory in 2017, two years after going winless. He also had cut his teeth as an Oregon assistant under Chip Kelly. After spurning Florida to come home to Nebraska, Frost was widely seen as a potential program savior.
Many believed Frost could bridge what worked in the past with what Nebraska needs now, even though he hadn’t recruited the Big Ten region.
Frost has generated some recruiting wins. Nebraska signed ESPN top-25 classes in 2019 and 2020. But the Huskers have logged four consecutive losing seasons and three under Frost (12-20 overall), which seemed to impact the most recent class (39th nationally).
“What draws a kid there?” a former assistant said. “When’s the last time they won a conference championship? No kid in high school has any idea that they ever won.”
Before his time on local Nebraska sports radio, Benning played for Nebraska during the end of the Osborne glory era. He also has closely observed the program’s path ever since.
His conclusion: What Nebraska became from the early 1960s through the 1990s, capitalizing on two Hall of Fame coaches — Osborne and Bob Devaney — and some structural advantages to become a national force, was not sustainable.
“More of a geographic anomaly than built for the long haul as a blue blood,” Benning said. “Nebraska’s got a great fan base, they print money, they’ve got great facilities. They’ve got to evolve with the times. It’s been really hard for me to reconcile that in my head — what they once were versus what they’re capable of being. There’s a real fine line between understanding history and embracing it but not being held captive.
“Nebraska’s still held captive by the success they’ve had. They need to be comfortable in their own skin. They have to have peace with it.”
Nebraska undoubtedly can perform much better in the Big Ten. But part of the path toward future success is acknowledging realistic goals and adjusting to achieve them.
“At a place like Nebraska, you’re not going to beat Ohio State every year,” one source said. “You don’t have the same recruiting base. Iowa’s more of a model at Nebraska than Ohio State is, with where you’re located and where you’re recruiting. You’ve got to be realistic. At some point, you’ve got to not be delusional.”
The philosophical shift remains difficult for some, especially after decades of competing nationally.
“A state of 1.8 million people, where they’re located, and you look at just the West [Division]. Where do you fit with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern or Purdue?” one person said. “They didn’t want to judge themselves against that group. They wanted to judge themselves against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State. The sky’s falling when you lose to Purdue.
“They have to get self-awareness as to who they are, where they fit.”
Osborne thinks Nebraska still can be distinctive, despite its new reality.
“We don’t have to be a copycat program,” he said. “If you continue to do what everybody else is doing, what the leaders in the league like Ohio State are doing, and you don’t have the same talent level, then it’s not going to work out well.”
The process unquestionably requires more continuity. Between 1962 and 1997, Nebraska had two football coaches and did not have a losing season, winning nine or more games in all but two seasons (1967 and 1968). Since 2002, Nebraska has had five (plus two interim). Pelini and Frank Solich were fired with a combined record of 125-46.
Between 1962 and 2002, the school had three athletic directors. Since 2003, Nebraska has had five (plus three interim).
“That’s not a reputation for stability,” Potuto said. “I’m pretty sure if I was a coach, it wouldn’t be a situation that gives me confidence in what I was doing. I don’t know that moving to the Big Ten Conference triggered any of that. I still think the conference was absolutely the right move.”
Nebraska’s frequent leadership changes stand out in a division where continuity is king. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the FBS (1999), while Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald ranks seventh (2006). Iowa has had the same athletic director (Gary Barta) since 2006. Wisconsin just made its first athletic director hire since 2004, and Northwestern made its first since 2008.
“The West has the poster programs for stability,” said Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo, the former coach at Indiana, LSU and Vanderbilt. “Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern: What other three teams in any division of college football have that kind of stability? The SEC certainly doesn’t. I don’t think the Pac-12 does.”
DiNardo added of Nebraska: “Their identity right now is lack of stability.”
Nebraska’s fluctuation has coincided with improvement around the West Division. Big Ten television revenue has helped every school make facilities upgrades and invest in coaches and staff.
Since 2011, Wisconsin has logged six 10-win seasons and five AP top-13 finishes, while Iowa has posted four AP top-25 finishes in the past six years. Northwestern is enjoying its best post-World War II stretch (three 10-win seasons, two division titles, five AP top-25 finishes). Minnesota recently has posted two of its three highest wins totals — 11 in 2019, nine in 2016 — since 1905.
“That Western part, early on, before we got there, wasn’t really that strong of a division,” Riley said. “Now you look at that division, all those guys are great coaches. Every program has improved. The football gained a top-to-bottom competitiveness.
“It’s not easy to step in [at Nebraska] and say, ‘Let’s win like we did in the old Big Eight.’ It’s quite a chore.”
Nebraska’s Big Ten move affected recruiting and other areas of the program, but how much of the team’s performance is because it changed conferences?
“It’s been a bad thing,” a former assistant said.
Others don’t think the Big Ten factored nearly as much in the program’s downturn.
“Our football program was transitioning before we went to the Big Ten,” Perlman said. “We came off of an extraordinary period of time with an extraordinary head coach, and an environment that was amenable to Nebraska building a great program. We underestimate what a great coach Tom Osborne was. Also, the world has changed. Nebraska’s a small state. We’ve only got 1.8 million people, and with the change in eligibility, the change in number of scholarships, the other things that have impacted our program, I think it’s taken time to adjust.
“That would have happened regardless of what conference we were in.”
Another person described the Big Ten as “the least of their problems,” stressing a need for self-assessment and tackling present-day hurdles, rather than living in the past.
“Their struggles in the Big Ten are exacerbated by the strength of the Big Ten,” a former Big Ten athletic director said. “I think Nebraska could have continued to do a little bit better in the Big 12, but I don’t know if they would have done appreciably better.”
As Nebraska begins its second decade in the Big Ten, those familiar with the first say a refined plan is needed. Before Alberts’ hiring, Benning said the athletic director vacancy represents the school’s most important hire in 15 years, noting that Nebraska “needs to find stability in the message.” Benning and others say Nebraska must stop throwing money at its problems and instead outline a clear philosophy and commit to it.
“It has to be earned,” Alberts said at his introduction last week. “We’ll go to work. We’ve got great people. We can do this. But it isn’t going to be overnight, and it isn’t going to be easy, but we’re really going to focus on the fundamentals and mechanics of how we operate. Attention to detail. Work habits.”
Part of the shift could involve fully embracing Big Ten culture. Nebraska historically hasn’t been a program to bite its tongue, whether about Texas’ increasing influence in the Big 12 or the Big Ten’s initial decision to cancel the fall football season in 2020. Although Ohio State and other programs also voiced displeasure with the Big Ten last summer, Nebraska’s approach drew the most attention (and criticism). Frost floated playing as an independent before the Big Ten officially canceled, and Nebraska’s leadership then issued a joint statement expressing disappointment with the league’s decision. Eight parents of Nebraska players sued the Big Ten over the decision to cancel. When the Big Ten revived the fall season, Moos expressed frustration about a schedule front-loaded with Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.
Longtime Omaha World-Herald columnist Tom Shatel calls this Nebraska’s “independent spirit,” borne from years in the Big Eight and Big 12. But the Big Ten historically has settled disputes internally and projected unity. A Big Ten coach said of Nebraska, “It’s almost like them against the world, everybody’s out to screw ’em.”
Frost, speaking last month during Nebraska’s Big Red Caravan event, said that while his views haven’t changed, he might not have been so bold in expressing them, saying, “It put the crosshairs on us.”
“You can tell the relationship is strained,” Benning said. “I don’t feel like Nebraska has a really firm seat at the table. It’s twofold: Nebraska has to do a better job of keeping in-house business in-house. When they have these conversations with the conference, they have to find the happy medium between personalizing what’s best for a university and not alienating the conference. It’s been quite the juggling act.”
Nebraska has plenty of work ahead, but a Big Ten breakthrough remains possible. DiNardo, who faced Nebraska in the Big Eight as a Colorado assistant, knows the program’s potential when properly aligned.
“It’s a big jump to go from Big Eight to Big 12 to Big Ten,” he said. “None of those historic, successful programs have gone through what Nebraska’s gone through. But at the end of the day, the right coach and right administration puts them in position to win the Big Ten, which gives them a chance to win nationally.”
Osborne, who helped recruit Frost back to Nebraska, attended several spring practices and likes what he sees: an experienced quarterback (Adrian Martinez), capable wide receivers and an ascending defense. He thinks areas that defined Nebraska’s dynasty, such as the walk-on program, will start paying off more.
“There’s always an ebb and a flow with programs, and we’ve gone through a difficult stretch, but the basics are pretty good,” he said. “We hope we can be long-term Big Ten, and we can be competitive. I don’t have a crystal ball. I can’t predict what’s going to happen five, 10 years from now, but I have a little bit of an idea of what’s going to happen this fall, and I think we’ll be improved.”
You may like
Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
Published
21 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
-
Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
21 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

-
Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike