The cost of bread, biscuits and beer could increase this year due to the impact of the unusually wet autumn and winter on UK harvests.

Research suggests that production of wheat, oats, barley and oilseed rape could drop by four million tonnes (17.5%) compared with 2023.

The wet weather has resulted in lower levels of planting, while flooding and storms over winter caused farmers more losses.

The predictions come just as the rate of price increases on many food items begins to slow as inflation falls.

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The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data.

It found a “real risk” of beer, biscuits and bread becoming more expensive if the poor harvest increases costs for producers, according to its lead analyst Tom Lancaster.

Beer prices could be affected because the wet weather is still disrupting the planting of spring crops such as barley, the ECIU said.

And potatoes might also see a price hike in the coming months, with growers warning of a major shortage in the autumn due to persistent wet weather.

Planting of this year’s potato crop has been delayed across much of northern Europe.

“It’s had a massive impact on us,” said Lincolnshire farmer Colin Chappell.

“We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it’s now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they’ll get drilled this year. The situation is very hit and miss.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said recently that extreme weather was one of the biggest dangers to UK food security.

Warmer and wetter winters similar are predicted to become more common as the climate warms.

Drop in production could be more than five million tonnes

The total drop in production could even be more than five million tonnes (21.2%) when compared with the average harvest for 2015-2023.

Wheat production could be particularly hard hit, according to the research, with an estimated fall of 26.5% compared with last year.

It’s because the milling wheat used for bread has higher quality requirements that will be harder for farmers to achieve with wet weather.

The owner of Kingsmill and Ryvita, Associated British Foods, warned last week of potential price hikes if the cost of grains in the UK aren’t offset by bigger harvests abroad.

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The ECIU’s Tom Lancaster said the government’s green farming schemes are vital in “helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts”.

With half of food coming from abroad, he said foreign farmers would also need support.

“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security,” he added.

William Kendall, the farmer behind Green & Blacks chocolate, said “regenerative farming methods” were also important as they “greatly enhance the soil’s capacity to hold water and therefore prevent saturation”.

“Not only does this mean better crops, produced at a lower cost for the farmer,” he said, “but it ensures that the chances of the flash flooding downstream we have seen this winter are greatly diminished”.

A British artificial intelligence company which helps customers to map complex corporate transactions is raising millions of pounds to spur its growth from a vehicle backed by one of Italy’s renowned business dynasties.

Sky News understands that Jigsaw, which was founded by Stephen Scanlan and Travis Leon, two former lawyers, will announce on Tuesday that it has secured $15m in Series A funding.

The round is being led by Exor Ventures, which is part of the Agnelli family’s business empire and which has backed tech companies including Mistral, one of the world’s hottest AI start-ups.

Jigsaw says it helps clients to create diagrams and images to help clients visualise, design and manage corporate structures at many times the speed of existing software tools such as PowerPoint.

Angel investors from the law firm Linklaters, investment bank Morgan Stanley and private equity firm KKR also participated in the fundraising.

The Jigsaw co-founders previously established XRef, a proofreading software company, which they sold for a reported $10m.

Their latest venture launched three years ago, and is used by big four accountancy firms and major global law firms including Ashurst and Goodwin Procter.

Employing nearly 150 people, Jigsaw has offices in cities including London, Barcelona and Chicago.

Mr Scanlan said: “We’ve dedicated ourselves to building products that white-collar professionals deeply value for the creation of corporate structure charts, which are used to map out anything from the ownership of a company to the different stages of complex legal and financial transactions.

“We plan to expand our multi-product line focused on visualising complex transactions into an end-to-end platform that facilitates the management of corporate structures and governance.”

The Growth Stage, which works with technology entrepreneurs on fundraisings and other corporate transactions, advised Jigsaw on the funding round.

The average price paid for comprehensive motor insurance rose 1% in the first quarter of the year, according to industry data indicating an easing in the steep rises seen last year.

The latest tracker issued by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) showed a 1% increase on the previous three months to £635.

That was despite the average claim paid rising 8% to reach a record of £4,800 pounds, the body said.

The ABI said the disparity showed that its members were “absorbing” additional costs and not passing them on.

Premiums hit record levels last year to reflect a surge in additional costs and claims.

The ABI reported a 23% hike in 2023, compared with the year-ago period, with £9.9bn paid out in claims.

That was the highest annual claims figure since the ABI started collecting the data back in 2013, the organisation said.

Insurers had flagged a 16% spike in the cost of paint, with spare parts also rising on average by a double-digit figure.

Other bills, largely driven by the price of energy, were up by 46%, the ABI’s report had said.

They included delays in repair and supply chains and the fact that increasingly sophisticated car technology made repairs more expensive.

The rise in premiums also reflected, it warned, a surge in uninsured drivers who did not take out policies likely because of pressure on their personal finances from the wider cost of living crisis.

The 1% rise in premiums could reflect growing regulatory pressure on the industry.

Insurers faced a further warning from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in March over values placed on written-off and stolen cars.

The watchdog said it was concerned that insurance customers were only getting a better deal in settlement of their claim when they complained.

The industry has also faced accusations that drivers who can’t afford to pay for cover annually were being stung with high levels of interest.

The consumer group Which? recently found APRs being applied to monthly payments of almost 40%.

The average rate across 27 providers that charge interest and disclosed their rate was 23.37%, its report had suggested.

Which? demanded action from the FCA.

The ABI responded last week to insist that its members were taking action to address the concerns.

Its director of general Insurance policy Mervyn Skeet said of its latest tracker data: “We understand that car insurance costs are putting pressure on household finances.

These figures show how competitive the motor market is, with insurers absorbing significant cost rises but keeping prices relatively stable.

Which? director of policy and advocacy Rocio Concha said in response: “While it’s encouraging to see the price of premiums steadying, they still remain eye-wateringly high and prohibitively expensive for many drivers.

“It won’t be lost on motorists that premiums increased by a quarter in 2023 compared to 2022.

“To make matters worse, some who can’t afford to pay for their annual cover all in one go are being stung with interest on monthly repayments of up to nearly 40 per cent, which can add hundreds of pounds onto the final bill.

“The regulator needs to get a grip of the issue quickly by making clear that insurers squeezing customers paying monthly with excessive interest rates to make higher profit margins than those paying annually does not meet fair value requirements, and setting deadlines for firms to fix this.”