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We’re more than halfway through August, and teams are making a statement in the MLB playoff races ahead of the final stretch.

Have the Yankees surpassed the Red Sox in our rankings? Are the surging Braves finally in the top 10? Who’s on top in the seemingly eternal battle between the Dodgers and Giants?

Here is what our eight-voter expert panel decided based on what they have learned over the course of the 2021 season so far. We also asked ESPN baseball experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Joon Lee, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with one Week 19 observation based on what they have seen recently for all 30 teams.

Previous rankings: Week 18 | Week 17 | Week 16 | Week 15 | Week 14 | Week 13 | Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8 | Week 7 | Week 6 | Week 5 | Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1 | Opening Day


Record: 78-43
Previous ranking: 2

Based on their projections heading into the season and the general outlook of their roster, some thought that the Giants might fade down the stretch. Instead, they might be playing their best baseball through what is typically considered the “dog days” of August. Through the first 17 days of the month, the Giants had won 13 of 16 and had outscored teams by a combined 30 runs, boasting a .782 OPS and a 3.06 ERA. The Dodgers are providing a lot of pressure, but the Giants continue to maintain their distance. — Gonzalez


Record: 75-46
Previous ranking: 1

While the Dodgers wait for Mookie Betts’ troublesome right hip to heal, they can take solace in witnessing much-needed signs of improvement from the previously struggling Cody Bellinger. Bellinger began August with a .163/.263/.285 slash line and five home runs in 48 games. In his first 13 games since, he batted .255/.300/.617 with four home runs. He’s not at his MVP level yet, but he seems to be inching closer. And the Dodgers, boosted by the addition of Trea Turner, don’t necessarily need an MVP-caliber performance from Bellinger. They just need a productive one. — Gonzalez


Record: 74-47
Previous ranking: 3

Watch out for Wander Franco who’s heating up at the plate, hitting .288/.344/.559 with three homers, 14 RBIs and 12 runs in his last 15 games. In an effort to add depth to the pitching staff, Tampa Bay added former Yankees closer David Robertson on a minor league deal. Robertson will report to Triple-A Durham with a chance to join the division-leader Rays ahead of the playoff stretch. — Lee


Record: 70-50
Previous ranking: 4

In some respects, this year’s Astros have been something of an enigma. Overall, the quality of the team is clear. Houston has a top-five winning percentage and only the Dodgers have a better run differential. On top of that, only San Diego has a better mark against teams at .500 or better, with Houston going 37-25 thus far. But that’s where the enigma starts: The Astros are 33-24 against sub.-500 teams, which is the worst winning percentage among contending teams. In a tightly-packed AL playoff race, there are six teams who can reasonably harbor hopes of landing the eventual top seed in October. All of them, other than Houston, are at least 13 games over .500 against losing teams. To list them: Tampa Bay (39-15), Chicago (52-29), Oakland (46-19), New York (31-18) and Boston (29-16). The good news for the Astros? There won’t be any losing teams in the AL playoff bracket.— Doolittle


Record: 74-47
Previous ranking: 6

The Brewers’ offense has been trending in the right direction for a while now. It came together in a huge series sweep against the Cubs and hasn’t slowed down much since. Milwaukee was the only team in baseball with an OPS over 1.000 over the past seven days. Their final month will mostly be about prepping for the postseason where their trio of All-Star starting pitchers (Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes) will lead them. Rest may be in order for some next month. — Rogers


Record: 71-50
Previous ranking: 5

Eloy Jimenez made his return to the White Sox lineup with his season debut on July 26. Up to that point, Chicago ranked fifth in runs per game, sixth in average and second in on-base percentage. They ranked just 25th in home runs and 27th in runs via the home run. Since Jimenez’s return, the White Sox have added additional longball threats to the mix like trade acquisition Cesar Hernandez and injury returnee Luis Robert. But since Jimenez’ debut, Chicago has ranked 11th in runs per game, 21st in average and 19th in on-base percentage. They have also ranked fourth in homers and first in runs via the home run. None of this is to lay anything at the feet of Jimenez, who has been terrific since coming back. It’s more to suggest at some point before the postseason, Chicago might want to blend some of the diversity of their pre-August offense with some of the firepower of what they’ve done lately.— Doolittle


Record: 68-53
Previous ranking: 8

The injury to Chris Bassitt after he was struck in the face by a line drive could have significant implications to this Oakland team. Bassitt has been one of the team’s best pitchers this year, posting a 3.22 ERA in 25 games and 151 innings pitched. Starling Marte continues to look like one of the best trade deadline acquisitions, hitting .365/.405/.500 since the trade deadline with two homers and 11 stolen bases without being caught stealing.— Lee


Record: 69-54
Previous ranking: 10

Chris Sale made his return from Tommy John surgery and went five innings, allowing six hits and two runs. With Boston continuing to struggle, the team will depend on his arm down the stretch to push them toward the playoffs. Kyle Schwarber also made his debut for Boston, going 2-for-4 with a run and two doubles. Each loss widens the gap between Boston and the first-place Tampa Bay Rays as the resurgent Yankees continue to inch back up the standings, and the Red Sox lineup rotation and lineup hope Sale and Schwarber can each provide the spark they need. — Lee


Record: 69-52
Previous ranking: 11

The momentum is on the side of the Yankees, who have been surging since their acquisitions at the trade deadline with series wins over the Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox and division rival Boston Red Sox. Luis Gil continues to ride a wave of success in the Yankee rotation, going 4.2 innings against Boston in his third start, allowing three hits while walking and striking out four batters apiece. Through three starts, Gil hasn’t allowed a run in 15.2 innings pitched.— Lee


Record: 67-56
Previous ranking: 7

The Padres are slipping fast, having lost seven of their last eight games to the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies, owners of three of the 10 worst records in the sport. The Padres, coming off a three-game sweep at Coors Field, are a combined 17-18 against the Rockies and Diamondbacks this season, two teams they needed to take advantage of in what is otherwise a brutal National League West. Fernando Tatis Jr. is back — as an outfielder — but the Padres are down to three healthy starters in Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Ryan Weathers. — Gonzalez


Record: 65-56
Previous ranking: 13

The power-hitting infield has led the surge over .500 and into first place. All four infielders have a chance to reach 30 home runs, which has never happened. The only team with all four of its primary infielders to reach even 25 home runs were the 2008 Marlins (Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu). The season record for an infield is 139 home runs by the 2019 Astros, and the Braves are on pace for 135. — Schoenfield


Record: 63-56
Previous ranking: 9

Toronto hits a critical stretch of games with their season, with 11 of their next 15 games against the Nationals, Tigers and Orioles, providing an opportunity to beat up on some of the worst teams in the sport and keep pace with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. The team’s success since the return of outfielder George Springer creates wonder about how good the team could’ve been had the All-Star outfielder remained healthy the entire season. It bodes well for an improving young team in the years to come. — Lee


Record: 65-57
Previous ranking: 12

The series loss to the Cubs hurt, but it wasn’t season-burying partly because the San Diego Padres aren’t playing great baseball. The two teams are vying for the second wild card position. Cincinnati is improving on the mound but their strength continues to be the top of their order. Having said that, it was outfielder Tyler Naquin who led them last week hitting over .400. Add him to the Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos and Joey Votto foursome and the Reds might just hit their way to the postseason. — Rogers


Record: 61-59
Previous ranking: 14

Bryce Harper continues to make a run into the MVP discussion, although Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return keeps him as the favorite. Harper is hitting .306/.453/.816 with six home runs in August heading into Wednesday, and he now leads the NL in OPS. People will point to the low RBI total (50), although Harper has hit with just 212 runners on base compared to the MLB average of 248 with his number of plate appearances. — Schoenfield


Record: 61-58
Previous ranking: 19

The Cardinals have been holding out hope that face-to-face meetings with the Milwaukee Brewers would make a difference. It won’t. Their only real hope is the wild card, and with the return of Jack Flaherty, they may have an outside shot. Flaherty pitched six scoreless innings against the Kansas City Royals in his first action since May. That’s a great sign for the stretch run. — Rogers


Record: 65-56
Previous ranking: 16

Heading into Wednesday’s game, the Mariners’ starters had a 2.83 ERA in August — best in the AL. Trade deadline acquisition Tyler Anderson has a 2.91 ERA in his four starts with Seattle, issuing just two walks in 21.2 innings. A positive sign for Jarred Kelenic: He has cut his strikeout rate to 14.8% in 15 games in August, down from 32.2% prior to that. Down on the farm: George Kirby and Emerson Hancock were promoted to Double-A (and Kirby currently ranks as Baseball America’s No. 11 prospect, with Julio Rodriguez and Noelvi Marte in the top 10). — Schoenfield


Record: 60-60
Previous ranking: 15

Tuesday’s loss dropped the Mets to 59-60, which is their first time under .500 since they were 12-13. That loss dropped them to 4-12 in August and 5-14 over their past 19 games. Mets owner Steve Cohen is getting upset. “It’s hard to understand how professional hitters can be this unproductive. The best teams have a more disciplined approach. The slugging and OPS numbers don’t lie.” Oh, Steve, you thought owning a major league team would be more fun, didn’t you? — Schoenfield


Record: 58-61
Previous ranking: 17

After struggling to find his footing early in the season at the big-league level, lately rookie righty Triston McKenzie has looked like Cleveland’s latest successful pitching development story. This was true even before his run at a perfect game at Detroit last weekend, but that masterpiece (91 game score) put his gains on full display. McKenzie still needs to refine his command, as he too often misses in the middle of the plate and gets barreled up more than you’d like to see. But his control — getting the ball over the plate at all — has jumped up a tier or two. Overall, McKenzie had a 5.47 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate and a 19% rate of walks before the All-Star break. Since then, the strikeouts have dropped to 22%, but the walks have nearly disappeared, down to 4%. More importantly, McKenzie’s trajectory seems to be trending upward, and his progress gives Cleveland fans something to root for as the club plays out the string.— Doolittle


Record: 61-61
Previous ranking: 18

Anthony Rendon underwent season-ending surgery to repair a troublesome hip recently — a development that suddenly makes the $188 million remaining on his contract feel a little dicey — but we also have some good news: Mike Trout is back to doing on-field workouts and seems to be on a path towards potentially returning to play. Trout was putting together another MVP-caliber season before a right calf strain sent him to the injured list on May 17. After a recent setback, it would’ve been easy for him to give up on the season, given the Angels’ place in the standings, but he badly wants to play. And baseball is better for it. — Gonzalez


Record: 58-64
Previous ranking: 20

When Miguel Cabrera becomes the 28th big leaguer to reach 500 career home runs, he’ll be the first to do so while playing for the Tigers. That’s a bit surprising for a franchise that’s been around for 121 years and toiled for much of that time at homer-friendly Tiger Stadium. The only other players that have reached 500 homers and played for the Tigers at any point were Eddie Mathews and Gary Sheffield, and both came close to hitting No. 500 during their time with the Tigers. Mathews hit 493 homers for the Braves, then ended up with the Astros, for whom he hit No. 500 in 1967. He then finished with Detroit, hitting his last nine dingers to end up at 512. Sheffield was even closer: He had clubbed 455 homers for six teams before ending up with the Tigers in 2007. He then added 44 homers to that total over two seasons in Detroit — leaving him at 499. Sheffield hit 10 homers, including No. 500, for the Mets during his final season in 2009, finishing at 509. The Tigers’ franchise record for homers is 399 by Al Kaline. Cabrera was sitting at 361 while awaiting his milestone longball, with his first 138 coming during his years with the Marlins.— Doolittle


Record: 51-70
Previous ranking: 22

The Marlins averaged 21,662 fans for a three-game series against the Yankees at the end of July. They drew less than 10,000 fans for all four games against the Mets, and the first two games of the Atlanta series drew under 7,000. The COVID outbreak in Florida isn’t helping. They also drew under 10,000 for games against the Dodgers and Padres in early July. Oh, Derek, you thought owning a major league team would be more fun, didn’t you? — Schoenfield


Record: 54-67
Previous ranking: 26

In a preseason outlook for the Minnesota Twins, who featured an everyday lineup that would include the likes of Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson, who could have guessed that we reach the latter stages of August and the team’s home-run leader would be … Jorge Polanco? This says more about the Twins than Polanco, who is one homer shy of his career-high of 21 in 2019. Still, there’s no doubt that the underrated Polanco has established himself as one of the game’s better middle infield bats. The standard setter in Senators/Twins history for middle infield homers is Brian Dozier, who had a three-year run of 28, 42 and 34 homers, respectively, from 2015 to 2017. Beyond Dozier, the only Twins shortstop and/or second baseman to surpass Polanco in a season are Roy Smalley (24 in 1979) and Jonathan Schoop (23, 2019).— Doolittle


Record: 55-66
Previous ranking: 21

The Rockies could be a juggernaut if they never left Coors Field. No, seriously. On the road, they’re a ghastly 14-45 with a minus-119 run differential. At home, where they just completed a sweep of the Padres, they’re 41-21 and have combined to outscore teams by 74 runs. That is a stunning home-road split, to say the least, but it is not without explanation, given the significant difference in conditions when playing home games at high altitude. It’ll be up to the new head of baseball operations — whoever that is — to figure out how to make up that gap. — Gonzalez


Record: 52-68
Previous ranking: 23

Tuesday’s win temporarily halted a 1-12 skid, but this is a terrible baseball team right now. Since Max Scherzer beat the Phillies 3-1 in the first game of a doubleheader on July 29, the Nationals have a 6.11 ERA and have allowed five or more runs 14 times in 18 games (heading into Wednesday). — Schoenfield


Record: 52-67
Previous ranking: 25

During his minor-league career, Nicky Lopez looked like a bat-on-ball maestro who might carve out a niche at the highest level as a high-contact, patient hitter who would add value with his glove and on the basepaths. Alas, he spent much of his first two seasons with the big club in Kansas City looking like someone simply overwhelmed by big-league pitching. This season has been different, as Lopez now looks like a quality utility player, at worst, and possibly even a semi-regular starter in the middle infield. While his lack of power will always be an issue, Lopez’s contact skills have finally manifested against big-league pitching, as his 2021 contract rate (85%) rates in the 93rd percentile of all qualifying hitters. He’s also filled in admirably at shortstop during the extended absence of Adalberto Mondesi and looks like he’ll be a plus defender no matter where you plug him in on the infield. And as for the basepaths: Lopez was just 1 for 7 in steal attempts before this season. In 2021, he’s a perfect 13 for 13.— Doolittle


Record: 54-69
Previous ranking: 24

Tryouts are well underway for next season with one player jokingly calling it ‘Game of Thrones’-esque. May the best men win jobs. The unfortunate part is the Cubs aren’t sending top prospects out to play, mostly older retreads from other organizations. They finally won a series in beating the Reds as the one bright spot of the season. Kyle Hendricks won his league-leading 14th game of the year. — Rogers


Record: 42-78
Previous ranking: 27

Texas played the spoiler role over the weekend in a series win against Oakland. They scored 15 runs in winning two games, something that’s been lacking since the trade of Joey Gallo to the Yankees. Reliever Joe Barlow has been a nice find this season as he’s produced a 0.61 ERA in 16 games to go along with two saves — both coming against the A’s. — Rogers


Record: 42-79
Previous ranking: 28

Considering how poorly the Cubs are playing, the Pirates actually have a shot at getting out of the cellar of the NL Central before season’s end. It may not be their true motivation as the Pirates have to rely on high draft picks — not free agency — to improve their team. Building around rookie Ke’Bryan Hayes is the best Pittsburgh can hope for right now. — Rogers


Record: 40-81
Previous ranking: 30

The D-backs’ miserable, tough-luck season received a much-needed feel-good moment on Saturday night, when Tyler GIlbert — a 27-year-old making his first major league start, who was originally acquired in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft — threw a no-hitter against the mighty Padres. Gilbert only recorded five strikeouts and allowed 10 batted balls that traveled 95 mph or harder. But as D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said: “We were at the right place at the right time. And made plays. And it equaled a no-hitter.” The D-backs will certainly take it. — Gonzalez


Record: 38-81
Previous ranking: 29

Baltimore finds itself in the middle of a 13-game losing streak and sole claim to the worst record in baseball. As the rebuild continues, the Orioles moved to the top of the FanGraphs farm systems rankings, but whether or not it was worth it will depend on how those prospects eventually blossom at the major league level. Cedric Mullins continues his reign as not only the team’s best player, but among the best in the entire sport. — Lee

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Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

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Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.

Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.

“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”

Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.

Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.

“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”

Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.

The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.

Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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College Football Playoff picks after Week 4

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College Football Playoff picks after Week 4

After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.

While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.

A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.

The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.

Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.

Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:


Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis

Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida

Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis

David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis

Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida

Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida

Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis

Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There’s a new No. 1

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There's a new No. 1

Is the U back?!

It’s been a minute.

With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.

This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.

The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.

The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.

Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.

Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.

Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.

Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.

Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.

Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.


Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.

Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.

Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.


Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.

Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.

Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.


Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.

Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.

Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.


Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.

Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.

Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.

Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.

Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.


Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.

Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.

Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.

Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.

Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.


Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.

Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.


Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.

Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State

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