Looking Into The Future Of The Grid
Over 10,000 tracking heliostats focus solar energy at the receiver on the 640-foot power tower at the Crescent Dunes Solar Thermal Facility in Nevada. The facility is representative of concentrating solar power modeled in the Annual Technology Baseline. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL.
Article courtesy of NREL.
One of the challenges of aggregating energy data from different sources into studies is knowing whether the data uses consistent assumptions. The Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) resolves this challenge by creating consistent assumptions across all electric generation technology cost and performance data.
The ATB integrates current and projected data for electricity-generation technologies into one user-friendly tool. It is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assembled by a team of analysts from the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Each year, new data are released, and the 2021 update of the electricity-sector ATB came out in July.
All renewable energy technologies are represented in the ATB. In this Q&A, solar power technology leads and NREL analysts—David Feldman, Chad Augustine, Parthiv Kurup, and Craig Turchi—share their insight on why the ATB is unique and what is new in terms of solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in the 2021 update, including new technologies, expanded financial data, and better interoperability with other models.
Does any other resource like the ATB exist?
The ATB was created because there was no existing database with the level of nuance on technology innovation that energy analysts need. As a national laboratory dedicated specifically to renewable energy, NREL partners with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to dive into those nuances for renewable generation technologies. Without the ATB, analysts would have to seek out data in many places and are likely to have inconsistent assumptions.
How does NREL build the data each year?
We compile data from literature and expert surveys, studies, and industry partnerships.
Who are the primary ATB users?
The ATB is for any analyst out there who is trying to model the electric grid, or individual technologies, in the United States or internationally. We get questions from analysts all over the country and the world who want to use this data.
What cost and performance metrics are offered for solar technologies in the ATB?
We report upfront costs, operating costs, system performance, and financing costs for most technologies over a 30-year period. These values are used to calculate a levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Note that, while LCOE is an important metric of comparison between electricity generation technologies, there are other factors, such as the value of the energy, which must also be considered.
Today’s representative CSP technology for the ATB is the molten salt power tower with two-tank thermal energy storage, which drives a Rankine steam cycle. This utilizes molten sodium and potassium nitrate as the heat transfer fluid and the storage media.
How is solar data in the ATB used at NREL?
The solar data goes into NREL’s Standard Scenarios—a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector to 2050 that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis—but also any analysis done with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, as well as many other NREL models.
ReEDS is NREL’s capacity deployment model that is used in many high-impact studies across the laboratory, currently including the Storage Futures Study and upcoming Solar Futures Study.
In the past, solar ATB data has been used in the SunShot 2030, Geothermal Vision Study, and Wind Vision Study. Truly, any sort of big study that NREL does with ReEDS uses ATB as the foundational model input for PV, CSP, and all technologies.
In additional to NREL use, have you seen it used outside of the lab?
Absolutely. Recently, the California Energy Commission and Cal ISO [California System Operator] commissioned modelers to look at the future of their grid. They utilized the ATB for their model inputs to understand impacts of policy with high renewables deployment.
Internationally, organizations like the energy department in Chile have utilized the ATB costs in their scenarios and come to us asking about costs in the market as a validation.
Are there any new features or developments related to solar in the 2021 update?
This year we made the exciting linkage between the ATB and NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) so that the costs of the representative CSP plant at the starting point of the projections, or the baseline, are reflected in the SAM model. With this development, people can now dive deep into our assumptions for how we came up with that assessment, down to the number of heliostats. From there, users can change the assumption as they think it should be or customize for their systems like longer storage times or more efficient technologies.
For both PV and CSP, we’ve expanded our resource classes so we have larger representation of how these systems will perform throughout the United States. We also do a better job this year of representing the ongoing operating costs of PV systems, including five new cost categories. That’s a big improvement.
We also added cost and performance metrics for PV-plus-battery storage. Previously, we only had separate PV and battery storage costs, but there is an ever-growing number of PV systems that are coupled with battery storage in the United States. We’re excited to include costs for those systems this year.
What are some trends that you’ve seen over the years in the ATB in terms of cost and performance of solar technologies?
Generally, performance has increased, and cost has decreased, dramatically for PV and overall in CSP. The ATB has shown us there are several paths forward for continued price reduction. In the Standard Scenarios studies, you can see that when price decreases, renewable energy can become a significantly larger share of U.S. electricity generation. When that happens, there is also a lot of opportunity for greater deployment of storage technologies.
Moving forward, how will you continue to improve the ATB?
The DOE recently made a down-selection of what they believe to be the next generation of CSP technologies as part of their Gen3 program, so going forward we would like to see those captured in the ATB with the same fidelity of modeling as the current technologies.
We’d also like to continue to watch the market for PV-plus-battery storage and how those systems are designed and operated to accurately reflect them in the ATB.
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The US solar industry put nearly 18 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity on the grid in the first half of 2025. Even as the Trump administration rolled out anti-clean energy policies, solar and storage still made up 82% of all new power added to the grid in the first six months of the year. But the growth picture isn’t as sunny as it looks, according to the SEIA.
Trump’s big bill (HR1) and new administration actions targeting solar have dragged down deployment forecasts. The latest US Solar Market Insight Q3 2025 report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie warns that these policies could cut 44 GW of US solar growth by 2030 – an 18% decline. Compared with pre-HR1 forecasts, that’s a total loss of 55 GW, or 21% fewer solar projects by 2030.
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. She added that the administration is “deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardizing the reliability of our electric grid.” Still, Hopper stressed that demand will keep the industry growing because “the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”
Ironically, the report found that this year, 77% of new solar capacity has been built in states Trump won. Eight of the top 10 states for new installations — Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas — all went red in 2024.
On the manufacturing side, the US added 13 GW of new solar module capacity in the first half of the year, with factories ramping up in Texas, Indiana, and Minnesota. That brings total domestic capacity to 55 GW. But momentum stalled in Q2, with no new upstream manufacturing investment as federal policy uncertainty spooked private capital.
Looking ahead, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie expect solar deployment to land 4% lower than pre-HR1 projections by 2030. Near-term solar growth is buoyed by projects already underway, developers racing against tax credit deadlines, and surging electricity demand as new gas generation becomes pricier and less reliable.
The report also highlights the risk of federal permitting changes. A Department of the Interior order throws up obstructions for solar permits, threatening about 44 GW of planned projects. Arizona, California, and Nevada are expected to be hit hardest.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie. “The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment incredibly challenging.”
SEIA has urged Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to reverse course, warning that the administration’s approach could mean lost jobs, higher power bills, and a weaker US economy.
The stakes stretch beyond energy: SEIA notes that if solar growth stalls as projected, the Trump administration will blow its chances at winning the global AI race – something it’s keen to do. Last week, the trade group rolled out a grid reliability policy agenda calling on leaders at all levels of government to shore up the grid with solar and storage to meet surging demand.
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 91% of new US power generating capacity in H1 2025
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Inflation is back, with prices rising 2.7% compared to last year (and that doesn’t include food, fuel, or rent, which are up even more), which is objectively bad. But it’s not true that everything is getting more expensive. These inflation-busting EVs are heading into 2026 with prices that are lower than they were in 2025!
There’s plenty of reasons for prices to go up or down in a market – everything from tariffs and taxes and increased domestic production to changes in inflation or even just a manufacturerwillingness to take a smaller profit on per-unit sales in order to drive volume. There’s a little bit of all of that happening in the American EV market this year, especially in the face of the expiring Federal EV tax credit that kind of makes most EVs cost $7,500 more than they would have otherwise.
That said, as I was putting this list together, I realized there were plenty of ways for me to present these MY26 price cuts. “Best deals?” Too opinion-based. “Biggest discounts by percentage?” Too much math. In the end, I went with alphabetical order, by make. Enjoy!
Cadillac OPTIQ
Cadillac is the industry’s luxury EV leader these days – and for good reason. Its electric crossovers are good-looking, have long range, great acceleration, and ultra-fast charging. Heck, they can even power your home in a pinch.
Even so, the powers that be at GM are worried about how their EV sales will fare in an American without a $7,500 Federal EV tax credit, so they’re offering a rear-wheel-drive version of the OPTIQ crossover with 300 miles of range for the 2026 model year with a starting price that’s nearly $2,000 lower than the least-expensive 2025.
Chevy Silverado EV
Chevy is crushing it right now. After setting EV range records and surpassing Ford in EV sales this semmer, Chevy is now the fastest-growing domestic EV brand in the US – and they’re seemingly intent on keeping that momentum into 2026 with a more affordable WT trim level that starts at $54,895, compared to $57,095 for the ’25 WT Standard Range.
The financial picture is looking rosier at the top of the Silverado EV model range, too. The range-topping model for 2026 is the $88,695 Trail Boss, while the $97,895 RST Max Range topped the 2025 lineup.
Mercedes-Benz EQS
Despite being objectively capable, technologically-advanced, and supremely luxurious long-range electric vehicles, the Mercedes EQS and EQS SUVs were saddled with a somewhat anonymous, jellybean-like styling language that’s seen the flagship EVs struggle to find a foothold in the ultra-luxury segment they inhabit.
To that end, Mercedes kicked off its 2025 with big discounts on its in-stock EQS and EQS SUVs, and is responding to lower-than-expected market demand by reducing the cars’ MSRPs. In the case of the EQS SUV, by an inflation-busting $15,000 (!).
Toyota bZ
For 2026, Toyota has axed the bZ4X name and added a raft of both functional and cosmetic improvements to its five-passenger electric crossover, including body color fenders, up to 25% more range, and – thanks to a new thermal management system and battery preconditioning – a bigger battery that can charge from 10-80% capacity in about thirty minutes.
Even with those upgrades, the new and improved 2026 Toyota bZ is cheaper than the outgoing bZ4X, starting at $34,900 – or $2,170 less than the outgoing model.
Disclaimer: the prices above were sourced from CarsDirect, Motor1, and a number OEM websites. All offers were current as of 07SEP2025, and all links provided are from trusted affiliates. These prices may not be available in every market, with every discount, or for every buyer (the standard “with approved credit” fine print should be considered implied). Check with your local dealer(s) for more information.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Sennebogen’s new 824 G Electro Battery material handler is being put through its paces at a recycling site in Munich’s Aubing district. And, thanks to its innovative grid-connected/battery system, it never has to stop to recharge!
With its emphasis on the recycling of stainless steel, ferroalloys, and superalloys, CRONIMET Alpha’s recycling operations are loud, and adding the ceaseless drone of diesel engines straining against the mass of all that metal as it’s sorted and fed into bailing presses. That’s why the company was so excited to test out Sennebogen’s new, all-electric 824 G Electro Battery material handler during an extensive trial at its Munich site.
So far, CRONIMET’s operators have been impressed with the new Sennebogen. “The battery-powered machine drives just like a diesel-powered one,” explains equipment operator Zoran Alexsic. “You don’t notice any difference in power – only that everything runs much more smoothly and quietly … you don’t have to take breaks to escape the noise.”
Quiet, but powerful
The Sennebogen 824 G comes standard with a 98 kWh battery, but operators can install up to four modular packs for a total of 392 kWh and roughly eight hours of runtime. Even with a single pack—good for 1.5 to 3 hours—the machine can keep CRONIMET’s operations running almost nonstop, thanks to its built-in dual power mode.
Sennebogen’s dual power mode enables the 824 G to run on battery while drawing power from the grid at the same time. When connected to grid power, the machine can recharge its batteries as it works, eliminating the downtime other BEVs need for charging and giving operators the freedom to reposition the machine on battery power, then plug back in when convenient.
Beyond flexibility, the electric handler is also cleaner, quieter, and more cost-effective than the diesel models it’s designed to replace. By seamlessly cycling between battery and grid power, it reduces both noise on the job site and energy costs during peak hours.
Electrek’s Take
We’ve seen grid-connected equipment assets like this before, and with good reason. Simply put, it takes many more kilowatts of energy to dig up tons and tons of dirt and rocks than it does to send an aerodynamically smoothed sedan down a road. That’s why you still see a push towards hydrogen and other energy-dense fuels in construction – but permanently grid connected assets, whether wired or inductive, could solve for some of the limitations of batteries on job sites that can support them.
If the 824 G Electro Battery is a commercial success, expect Sennebogen to roll out more grid-connected options in the years to come.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Sennebogen.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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