As the West leaves Afghanistan, Kabul’s neighbours will need to work with the Taliban to bring stability to the region
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the focus has been on the evacuation effort, as people scramble to leave a country which has been grappling with war for two decades.
Western forces have now left the country and thoughts will turn to what a post-Western Afghanistan will look like, with the Taliban in control.
In the short-term, neighbours will be watching, hoping for stability and the Taliban will be hoping for international recognition as they seek to establish a government after 20 years in the wilderness.
Chinese delegates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Beijing looks set to support the country
There will be much soul-searching in Washington, London and other NATO capitals as the fallout of the last few weeks is scrutinised.
But in the cities, mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the attention will turn to writing the history of the fallout of the Taliban’s victory.
Afghanistan, and the wider region, is a different place compared to 2001 when the US military intervention began after 9/11. The US had issued a threat to Pakistan at the time, telling it to sever ties with the Taliban or be treated like them by US forces.
It has never been clear whether Pakistan complied with this threat but Pakistan, like China and Iran, will be a key player in Afghanistan’s future simply because of their proximity.
All of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries will react to the developments in the last week; Iran shares a long border with western Afghanistan; China has a comparatively small border to the northeast; while Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are to the north.
Could ISIS Khorasan cause a civil war?
Dr Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow at the University of Nottingham, suggests Afghanistan could be better without a US military presence in its territory.
“Over the last 20 years, the West has constantly indicated a complete lack of cultural and strategic intelligence. The West fails to understand that the Taliban came into existence to fight corruption, and it instead installed a government in a position that is known to be corrupt,” he told Sky News.
There is a concern from neighbouring countries that the Taliban could spread instability into its borders and Afghanistan slides back into a civil war.
Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, believes the US military has taken the “brunt of the instability and with the US departure there will be an onus on the region to take the stability”.
“Many of these neighbouring states are in antipathy with the US, not a single one hosts a US military base,” he told Sky News.
“In the medium-term, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbours all have the incentive to allow ISIS not to use Afghanistan as a breeding ground for extremism. They should work together; it would be smart for the Taliban by helping to not export the violence.”
The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short term
In varying degrees, Tehran and Beijing are each in dispute with Washington and even the government in Islamabad has grown weary of the US.
Prime Minister Imran Kahn was critical of the US last week when he said: “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind.” And Mr Puri suggests a “US failure is going to be a good thing” for the region.
But for all the neighbouring countries, the immediate worry could be one of civil war. ISIS Khorasan, who claimed the attack outside Kabul airport on 25 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and have a vested interest in stopping and disrupting the Taliban.
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The US is reported to have killed 10 members of one family after it tried to stop suicide bombers attacking Kabul airport.
The ISIS-K attack killed 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members.
In response, the US launched an airstrike against what the US military said was a vehicle carrying three ISIL-KP members and another drone strike was carried out on 29 August – allegedly killing 10 members of a family, including children.
But Dr Ashraf believes the threat of a civil war caused by ISIS-K is low. He said: “I doubt there will be a civil war because ISIS-K is too small in number and too dispersed for anything that can be identified close to a civil war.
Western forces have left Afghanistan after 20 years in the country
“The only part of Afghanistan where they have a significant rebellion involving fighting is in the Panjshir Valley and even that cannot be called a civil war.
“It would be interesting to see how the Taliban deal with ISIS. They potentially have the ability to deal with them more effectively than the previous government supported by the CIA and other western agencies. They will be keen to eliminate ISIS, but it is less certain as to how and when they can achieve that.”
While stability is uncertain, the Taliban should focus on its economy
In the short-term, the region’s focus, and that of the Taliban, will be on security but the new leaders will need to look at rebuilding the economy, something that will require corporation and support from its neighbours.
Dr Ashraf said: “The Taliban are hugely dependent on international support. What they are saying is our ‘country boys’ are great at facing and firing bullets, but they can’t do much anything else.
“That’s why they want a representative government and want to retain as many people as possible in government and elsewhere.
“What is different is they are a little more serious and savvier about the fact they won’t be able to live only on handouts, like the previous government.”
Given 20 years of war, it is going to be politically difficult for the western governments to be seen to be funding and supporting a Taliban-led government, even if they wanted to.
They could indirectly provide assistance through the significant work of the United Nations in the country but it is likely that most support comes from other sources in the region.
In the last week, the focus has been on evacuating those on the ground. Soon it will turn to what a Taliban-led Afghanistan looks like Pic: @DefenceHQ
“They will want to invest any support on becoming self-sufficient. They could possibly have some investment from Qatar and other Middle Eastern governments for economic and social development,” Dr Ashraf adds.
Unlike in 2001, the region has greater corporation capability through the multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
All but one country, Iran, hold membership status to the SCO and at the latest summit in July 2021, the instability in Afghanistan was discussed.
Afghanistan has held observer status since 2012, and while formal membership may be delayed, it offers a diplomatic mechanism to coordinate a regional response to the ever-changing realities of Taliban rule.
ISIS-K, who carried out the attack outside the airport on 26 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and will seek to disrupt them
The SCO was formed in 1996 as a reaction to the civil war in Afghanistan and the dissolution of the USSR.
It offered ways to foster economic cooperation in the region for its founders China and Russia, as well as a way to track security threats.
While the SCO will look at how they can help the Taliban bring stability, Afghanistan’s neighbours will have their own bilateral responses.
China’s foreign minister met with representatives of the Taliban earlier this week and according to Dr Hongyi Lai, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham in China, Beijing will “see it as a positive development”.
From a Chinese point of view, aligning themselves with Afghanistan will allow them to use it as a bargaining chip on the global stage
“They [China] will be aware of the political and security challenges for them but it is an opportunity for China to play out its influence with the Taliban as a diplomatic tool with the US and Joe Biden,” he said.
“They will use it as a bargaining chip and initially the Taliban will need to gain international recognition with the help of China.
“Chinese mentality regarding stability is they will focus on the economic solution rather than government, which is postulated by the West.”
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Dr Lai and Dr Ashraf both suggested mining rare metals could give the potential for both sides to corporate and build up Afghanistan’s economy.
Dr Ashraf adds that Afghanistan has the potential the develop its economy through agriculture, something that is relatively cost-effective and offsets the potential for radicalisation through the creation of jobs.
Mr Puri also suggests a potential bilateral trade deal between China and Kabul and Dr Ashraf is “confident initially it will be a bilateral” agreement with China.
The Taliban has long-established existing relationships with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – they have offices in Doha and both countries have supported the group financially in recent years.
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General Lord Richard Dannatt ponders the future for Afghanistan now that the Taliban have gained control.
Neither Doha nor Abu Dhabi will want the Taliban to fall into old habits and use the drug trade as a way to survive financially and Dr Ashraf suggests that this will stop senior Taliban officials from investing in the trade and potentially risk important funding now 80% of aid has been cut by the United States.
While it isn’t clear yet whether it is bilateral or multilateral ties that bind Afghanistan to its neighbours, it is evident regional cooperation without western involvement is much more developed now than it was 20 years ago.
Afghanistan’s neighbouring states will be initially looking to shore up their border against any threat of the instability spilling over but once the dust has settled, they will seek to work together to minimise the impact of the US departure.
World
‘If someone took Trump’s land, how would he feel?’ – Ukrainians view peace talks with suspicion
A Ukrainian farmer-turned-soldier in the Donbas has a message for Donald Trump as the US president attempts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
Anatolii, 59, said: “If someone took a piece of his territory, what would he say to that? The same goes for us.”
Like many Ukrainians, the serviceman volunteered to join a territorial defence unit when Russia launched its full-scale war almost four years ago.
He has been fighting ever since, but will have the option to quit next year once he turns 60.
Anatolii and a colleague
Unable to wear body armour anymore because of its weight, Anatolii now operates further back from the frontline in a small workshop on the outskirts of the city of Kramatorsk where he helps to fix and improve the performance of drones – a crucial weapon on the battlefield.
“I want this war to finally end,” he said. “I want to go home, to my family, to my land.”
But not at any price.
He and other soldiers in 107 Brigade of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Force view Mr Trump’s efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with suspicion.
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Peace deal: Russia ‘in no mood to compromise’.
An initial proposal envisaged the Ukrainian government giving up Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions that make up the Donbas, to Russia.
This includes large swathes of land that are still under Ukraine’s control, and that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives fighting to defend.
“I feel negative about it,” Anatolii said, referring to the proposal.
“So many people already fell for this land … How can we give away our land? It would be like someone comes to my house and says: ‘Give me a piece of your home.'”
However, he added: “I understand, we have nothing to take it back with. Maybe through some political means…
“I do not want more people to fall, more people to die. I want politicians to somehow come to terms.”
A short drive away from the workshop is a hidden bomb factory where other soldiers from the same unit are focused on a different kind of war effort.
Surrounded by 3D printed gadgets, metal ball bearings and plastic explosives, they make improvised bombs, including anti-personnel mines and devices that can be fitted onto one-way attack drones and exploded onto targets.
Vadym, 41, is in charge of the production line.
He has been fighting since Russian President Vladimir Putin first attacked eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Vadym
Asked whether he felt tired, he said: “We are always tired, we have no motivation as such, but there is the understanding that the enemy will keep coming as long as we do not stop him. If we stop fighting, our children and grandchildren will fight. That keeps us going.”
Vadym is also against simply handing over Ukrainian land to Russia.
“If we now give away borders, give away Donbas, then what?” he said.
“Any country can come to any other country and say: This is our land. Let’s coordinate, do business, and keep living as before. That is not normal in my view.”
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The Ukrainian president says ‘everyone must be on this side of peace’
The city of Kramatorsk stands testament to Ukraine’s will to fight, remaining firmly in Ukrainian hands, though Russia’s war is inching closer.
Nets stretched like a tunnel line a main road leading into the city to protect vehicles from the threat of small, killer drones.
Coils of barbed wire are also strung across fields around the outskirts of Kramatorsk along with other fortifications such as mounds of dirt and triangular lumps of concrete.
Many civilians have remained here as well as the nearby city of Slovyansk, even as other landmark sites such as Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka have fallen.
Yet the toll of living in a warzone is clear.
Stallholders swept away rubble and broken glass on Sunday after a Russian missile smashed into a central market in Kramatorsk on Saturday night.
Some, like Ella, 60, even chose to reopen despite the carnage.
“It’s frightening. We need to earn a living. I have my mother, I need to look after her, help my children. So we do what we have to do,” she said.
Her adult children live in Kyiv and want her to leave, but Kramatorsk is her home.
“We’ve been living like this for four years now. We’re so used to it. A drone flies overhead and we keep working,” she said.
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Is the UK prepared to fight a war?
Asked how she felt about what the war had done to her city, Ella’s voice wobbled and she wiped tears from her eyes.
“We keep it all inside, but it still hurts. It’s frightening and painful. I just want things as they used to be. We don’t want anything here to change,” she said.
As for what she would do if a future peace deal forced Ukraine to surrender the area, Ella said: “That’s a hard question … I wouldn’t stay. I’d leave.”
Production by security and defence producer Katy Scholes, Ukraine producer Azad Safarov, camera operator Mostyn Pryce
This community in Sri Lanka’s Kandy District is a mass of mud and loss.
The narrow, filthy streets in Gampola are filled with broken furniture, sodden toys and soiled mattresses. A torrent of floodwater ripped through this neighbourhood and many people had no time to escape.
Trying to reach their now destroyed homes is like wading through treacle – the mud knee-deep.
Many locals say they were not warned about the threat Cyclone Ditwah posed here before it struck last Friday, and weren’t told to evacuate. They say they’ve received very little help since.
Resourceful neighbours were left to try to help rescue survivors. But some had to carry the bodies of the dead, too. Mohamed Fairoos was one of them.
Fairoos Mohamed
“We took five bodies from here,” he says, gesturing to a house full of debris, where mattresses hang drying over the balcony.
“We took nine bodies in total and handed them over to the hospital.” He appears both shocked and exasperated at the lack of support this community received.
The house where Fairoos pulled the bodies from
“When I took the bodies, the police, the navy, no one sent for us.” He tells me he even posted a video online appealing for boats, hoping it might help.
I ask him if he thinks the government has done enough. “No,” he says forcefully. “No one called for us. No one helped us. No one gave us any boats.”
Read more: Families count the cost of devastating floods
Kumudu Wijekon and her husband Kumar Premachandra
‘Five people were killed here’
Just a few doors down, a group of volunteers have come to clear another home filled with floodwater. “Five people were killed here,” one of them tells me.
Five of them came from one family: a mother, father, their two daughters and son. Kumudu Wijekon tells me she was friends with them and they’d fled here to a friend’s house, hoping to escape the threat.
“There was heavy rain, but they didn’t think there would be flooding. They left their own home to save themselves from landslides. If they had stayed, they would have survived.”
Chamilaka Dilrukshi
‘We don’t have a single rupee’
A short drive away, Chamilaka Dilrukshi is sobbing inside the photography studio she shares with her husband Ananda. They have two children aged four and 11.
Chamilaka is clutching a bag of rice – she says it’s been donated by a friend and it’s all they have to eat.
Ananda Wijebandara and his wife Chamilaka Dilrukshi
Everything in the shop is wrecked – expensive cameras and lighting equipment covered in thick layers of mud, and outside, rows of broken frames and ripped pictures.
They think they’ve lost nearly £2,500 and their home is severely damaged. She weeps as she tells us: “We don’t have a single rupee to start our business again. We spent all of our savings on trying to build our house.”
Like Mohamed, she believed they should have been warned. “We didn’t know anything. If we did, we would have taken our cameras and our computers out. We just didn’t know it was coming.”
The studio was caked in mud
Anger at government’s perceived failings
Sri Lankan president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared a state of emergency to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone, and international aid has arrived.
But many people are angry at the government’s perceived failings. It’s been criticised for not taking the warnings from meteorologists seriously two weeks before the cyclone made landfall, as well as for not communicating enough messages in the Tamil language.
It is going to take places like Gampola a long time to rebuild, repair and restore trust. And in a country still recovering from an economic collapse, nothing is guaranteed.
The Americans were given the full VIP treatment on their visit to Moscow.
There was a motorcade from the airport, lunch at a Michelin-starred restaurant, and even a stroll around Red Square.
It felt like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were on more of a tourist trail than the path to peace.
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Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow
They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.
According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.
The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.
But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.
Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Putin thinks he’s winning…
Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.
It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.
It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.
Read more:
Michael Clarke answers your Ukraine war questions
‘Thousands’ of Westerners applying to live in Russia
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‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’
…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned
The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.
It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.
With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.
As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.
It all gives the impression that when it comes to Russia, the US prefers to placate rather than pressure.
According to the Kremlin, both Russia and the US have agreed not to disclose the details of yesterday’s talks in Moscow.
I doubt Volodymyr Zelenskyy is filled with hope.
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