As the West leaves Afghanistan, Kabul’s neighbours will need to work with the Taliban to bring stability to the region
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan the focus has been on the evacuation effort, as people scramble to leave a country which has been grappling with war for two decades.
Western forces have now left the country and thoughts will turn to what a post-Western Afghanistan will look like, with the Taliban in control.
In the short-term, neighbours will be watching, hoping for stability and the Taliban will be hoping for international recognition as they seek to establish a government after 20 years in the wilderness.
Chinese delegates have already met with representatives from the Taliban as Beijing looks set to support the country
There will be much soul-searching in Washington, London and other NATO capitals as the fallout of the last few weeks is scrutinised.
But in the cities, mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Central Asia, the attention will turn to writing the history of the fallout of the Taliban’s victory.
Afghanistan, and the wider region, is a different place compared to 2001 when the US military intervention began after 9/11. The US had issued a threat to Pakistan at the time, telling it to sever ties with the Taliban or be treated like them by US forces.
It has never been clear whether Pakistan complied with this threat but Pakistan, like China and Iran, will be a key player in Afghanistan’s future simply because of their proximity.
All of Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries will react to the developments in the last week; Iran shares a long border with western Afghanistan; China has a comparatively small border to the northeast; while Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are to the north.
Could ISIS Khorasan cause a civil war?
Dr Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow at the University of Nottingham, suggests Afghanistan could be better without a US military presence in its territory.
“Over the last 20 years, the West has constantly indicated a complete lack of cultural and strategic intelligence. The West fails to understand that the Taliban came into existence to fight corruption, and it instead installed a government in a position that is known to be corrupt,” he told Sky News.
There is a concern from neighbouring countries that the Taliban could spread instability into its borders and Afghanistan slides back into a civil war.
Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, believes the US military has taken the “brunt of the instability and with the US departure there will be an onus on the region to take the stability”.
“Many of these neighbouring states are in antipathy with the US, not a single one hosts a US military base,” he told Sky News.
“In the medium-term, the Taliban and Afghanistan’s neighbours all have the incentive to allow ISIS not to use Afghanistan as a breeding ground for extremism. They should work together; it would be smart for the Taliban by helping to not export the violence.”
The Taliban have offices in Doha, Qatar and could lean on their Middle Eastern allies for support in the short term
In varying degrees, Tehran and Beijing are each in dispute with Washington and even the government in Islamabad has grown weary of the US.
Prime Minister Imran Kahn was critical of the US last week when he said: “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind.” And Mr Puri suggests a “US failure is going to be a good thing” for the region.
But for all the neighbouring countries, the immediate worry could be one of civil war. ISIS Khorasan, who claimed the attack outside Kabul airport on 25 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and have a vested interest in stopping and disrupting the Taliban.
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The US is reported to have killed 10 members of one family after it tried to stop suicide bombers attacking Kabul airport.
The ISIS-K attack killed 182 people, including 169 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members.
In response, the US launched an airstrike against what the US military said was a vehicle carrying three ISIL-KP members and another drone strike was carried out on 29 August – allegedly killing 10 members of a family, including children.
But Dr Ashraf believes the threat of a civil war caused by ISIS-K is low. He said: “I doubt there will be a civil war because ISIS-K is too small in number and too dispersed for anything that can be identified close to a civil war.
Western forces have left Afghanistan after 20 years in the country
“The only part of Afghanistan where they have a significant rebellion involving fighting is in the Panjshir Valley and even that cannot be called a civil war.
“It would be interesting to see how the Taliban deal with ISIS. They potentially have the ability to deal with them more effectively than the previous government supported by the CIA and other western agencies. They will be keen to eliminate ISIS, but it is less certain as to how and when they can achieve that.”
While stability is uncertain, the Taliban should focus on its economy
In the short-term, the region’s focus, and that of the Taliban, will be on security but the new leaders will need to look at rebuilding the economy, something that will require corporation and support from its neighbours.
Dr Ashraf said: “The Taliban are hugely dependent on international support. What they are saying is our ‘country boys’ are great at facing and firing bullets, but they can’t do much anything else.
“That’s why they want a representative government and want to retain as many people as possible in government and elsewhere.
“What is different is they are a little more serious and savvier about the fact they won’t be able to live only on handouts, like the previous government.”
Given 20 years of war, it is going to be politically difficult for the western governments to be seen to be funding and supporting a Taliban-led government, even if they wanted to.
They could indirectly provide assistance through the significant work of the United Nations in the country but it is likely that most support comes from other sources in the region.
In the last week, the focus has been on evacuating those on the ground. Soon it will turn to what a Taliban-led Afghanistan looks like Pic: @DefenceHQ
“They will want to invest any support on becoming self-sufficient. They could possibly have some investment from Qatar and other Middle Eastern governments for economic and social development,” Dr Ashraf adds.
Unlike in 2001, the region has greater corporation capability through the multinational Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
All but one country, Iran, hold membership status to the SCO and at the latest summit in July 2021, the instability in Afghanistan was discussed.
Afghanistan has held observer status since 2012, and while formal membership may be delayed, it offers a diplomatic mechanism to coordinate a regional response to the ever-changing realities of Taliban rule.
ISIS-K, who carried out the attack outside the airport on 26 August, are sworn enemies of the Taliban and will seek to disrupt them
The SCO was formed in 1996 as a reaction to the civil war in Afghanistan and the dissolution of the USSR.
It offered ways to foster economic cooperation in the region for its founders China and Russia, as well as a way to track security threats.
While the SCO will look at how they can help the Taliban bring stability, Afghanistan’s neighbours will have their own bilateral responses.
China’s foreign minister met with representatives of the Taliban earlier this week and according to Dr Hongyi Lai, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham in China, Beijing will “see it as a positive development”.
From a Chinese point of view, aligning themselves with Afghanistan will allow them to use it as a bargaining chip on the global stage
“They [China] will be aware of the political and security challenges for them but it is an opportunity for China to play out its influence with the Taliban as a diplomatic tool with the US and Joe Biden,” he said.
“They will use it as a bargaining chip and initially the Taliban will need to gain international recognition with the help of China.
“Chinese mentality regarding stability is they will focus on the economic solution rather than government, which is postulated by the West.”
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Dr Lai and Dr Ashraf both suggested mining rare metals could give the potential for both sides to corporate and build up Afghanistan’s economy.
Dr Ashraf adds that Afghanistan has the potential the develop its economy through agriculture, something that is relatively cost-effective and offsets the potential for radicalisation through the creation of jobs.
Mr Puri also suggests a potential bilateral trade deal between China and Kabul and Dr Ashraf is “confident initially it will be a bilateral” agreement with China.
The Taliban has long-established existing relationships with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – they have offices in Doha and both countries have supported the group financially in recent years.
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General Lord Richard Dannatt ponders the future for Afghanistan now that the Taliban have gained control.
Neither Doha nor Abu Dhabi will want the Taliban to fall into old habits and use the drug trade as a way to survive financially and Dr Ashraf suggests that this will stop senior Taliban officials from investing in the trade and potentially risk important funding now 80% of aid has been cut by the United States.
While it isn’t clear yet whether it is bilateral or multilateral ties that bind Afghanistan to its neighbours, it is evident regional cooperation without western involvement is much more developed now than it was 20 years ago.
Afghanistan’s neighbouring states will be initially looking to shore up their border against any threat of the instability spilling over but once the dust has settled, they will seek to work together to minimise the impact of the US departure.
For days, the people of Paiporta have been dealing with the devastation of their town. But what hurts them now is the sense that they have been forgotten by their country.
As we walk through this town, what we see is relentless hard work – clearing mud, pumping out water, recovering cars.
But none of it is being done by people in uniform. Paiporta is being saved by its own residents, by friends, and by volunteers.
“The town feels like chaos,” says Cristina Hernandez, who moved here a year ago from Madrid
“Nobody has organised anything so we are doing our best. We feel we are abandoned by the government and there are also a lot of thieves in the night, so we are scared.
“It is a nightmare not only because of the floods but also because of the anarchy that we are living through now. After the catastrophe, the worst thing is that we are still scared.
Spain floods latest: King Charles ‘utterly heartbroken’
“We don’t have food or clothes. Some of our friends are still missing and some have lost their houses with all their things in them.
“So it is pretty sad that we see trucks going past but nobody is helping with the mud and clearing the houses, so we are alone.”
As if on cue, we can see a helicopter flying above us, but it passes by. She shakes her head.
Volunteers and residents clean up the mud four days after flash floods swept away everything in their path in Paiporta. Pic: AP/Angel Garcia
“We see them, but we don’t know what they are doing,” she says. It is, at the moment, a cruel sight – a tantalising vision of help that comes and goes.
Around us is a tapestry of devastation – dozens and dozens of wrecked cars, many of them lying in a lake of stagnant water. Cloying mud covers piles of debris. On the road, there is a child’s booster seat, a shoe and a small purse. Tangled wires lie like a web.
AP/Angel Garcia
Along the road, every house is affected, splattered with mud. You can see the dark waterline where the water reached its highest point.
Ruth is sweeping water along the street, time after time, pushing it towards an open manhole cover. She rests for a second, then starts again.
She takes a break and tells me that she has not seen a policeman, a soldier, a doctor or any other official. “It’s only us who clean up,” she says. “Where are they?”
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Aerial footage captures aftermath of floods
I start to ask her if she is angry with the government, and she interrupts. Her fury is palpable. “Angry? I am so, so angry with the government.
“I don’t care which political party you support, because my flag is Spain. And this is so bad.”
She wanders off, then returns and gently grabs my arm. “Come this way,” she says. “The world should see this.”
We round a corner and come to a street that is entirely packed with a wall of cars, mixed with huge piles of debris.
A fridge freezer, a microwave. Ruth clambers on top of a shattered bonnet and pulls me alongside her. “Nobody can reach these houses; nobody has looked in these cars,” she says. “They have forgotten.”
A man talks to a Guardia Civil officer in Paiporta. Pic: AP/Angel Garcia
It’s not true to say that no officials have come to Paiporta. We see local police, civil guard, ambulances and firefighters. As we’re leaving, we even see a military truck pull up.
But nobody seems to be coordinating any of this. At one point, I saw a policeman try to take control of a vehicle recovery, but nobody listened to him. He had a short row with his colleague, and then they both drove off.
As for the military, I had a chat with one of the officers as they stood by the road, waiting for a lorry to move so they could drive in.
The soldier was evidently frustrated. “We want to help, we know we can help, but so far we don’t have the orders about what we have to do,” he said.
“So you need a chief – someone to take control?” I asked. A question answered with a deep, long nod.
Paiporta has suffered grievously in these floods. At least 60 people are dead, a figure that shocked Cristina when I told her. They have no access to the internet, of course, and cannot leave their town. “There will be more,” was her response.
But what makes that pain so much worse is the time it is taking to be helped. Last year, I went with my colleagues to an appalling earthquake in Morocco, and within two days there were well-equipped Spanish response teams helping out, saving lives and leading the response.
And yet now, in their own country, the response is sluggish and indecisive.
A French offer to send in help was turned down. We are told that huge numbers of troops are being mobilised but we have seen hardly any and the ones we’ve met don’t know what they’re supposed to do.
These towns are desperate for leadership, reassurance, help and certainty. Instead, right now, they are fending for themselves.
World
Dmitry Medvedev warns US it should take Russia nuclear warnings seriously to avoid World War Three
Moscow has warned the US it should take Russia’s nuclear warnings seriously to avoid World War Three.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s security council and who served as the country’s president from 2008 to 2012, warned the US on Saturday it was “wrong” to believe “that the Russians will never cross a certain line”.
He told Russian-state broadcaster RT that Moscow believed the current US and European political establishments lacked the “foresight and subtlety of mind” displayed by the late Henry Kissinger.
“If we are talking about the existence of our state, as the president of our country has repeatedly said, your humble
servant has said, others have said, of course, we simply will not have any choice,” Mr Medvedev said.
Russia has been signalling for weeks to the West that Moscow will respond if the US and its allies help Ukraine fire longer-range missiles deep into Russia.
US diplomats have previously said Washington is not seeking to escalate the war in Ukraine.
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It’s not the first time Mr Medvedev has warned of a serious escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
Back in September, he threatened that Ukraine’s incursion into the Russian territory of Kursk had given Russia formal grounds to use nuclear weapons.
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It comes as Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv became the subject of an overnight aerial attack which lasted until midday today and saw one person injured, city officials said. All drones had been shot down.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has recently seen North Korean troops join the fight alongside Russia’s army, said strikes were also reported in the central Poltava and northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
“This year, we have faced the threat of ‘Shahed’ drones almost every night – sometimes in the morning, and even during
the day,” he wrote on social media, referring to the Iranian-made attack drones used by Russia.
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North Korean troops are near the Ukrainian border
Kyiv’s military said on Friday that Moscow’s forces had launched more than 2,000 drones at civilian and military targets
across Ukraine in October alone.
Russia has denied aiming at civilians and said power facilities are legitimate targets when they are part of Ukrainian military infrastructure.
World
Children among 25 people killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza – as 41 killed in attack on northern Lebanon
An 18-month-old boy and his 10-year-old sister are among 25 people who were killed in a series of Israeli strikes on central parts of Gaza, hospital officials have said.
Sixteen people were initially reported to have been killed in two strikes on the central Nuseirat refugee camp on Thursday, but officials from the Al Aqsa hospital said bodies continued to be brought in.
The hospital said they had received 21 bodies from the strikes, including some transferred from the Awda hospital, where they had been taken the day before.
Strikes on a motorcycle in Zuwaida and on a house in Deir al Balah on Friday killed four more, hospital officials said, bringing the overall toll to 25.
Five children and seven women are among those who have been confirmed dead.
The mother of the 18-month-old boy is missing and his father was killed in an Israeli strike four months ago, the family has said.
The Palestinian news agency WAFA earlier reported that 57 people had died in the Israeli strikes.
The Israeli military did not comment on the specific strikes but said its troops had identified and eliminated “several armed terrorists” in central Gaza.
Palestinians watch as smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
It also said its forces had eliminated “dozens of terrorists” in raids in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area – home to one of the territory’s refugee camps.
It comes as the Israeli military said on Friday it killed senior Hamas official Izz al Din Kassab, describing him as one of the last high-ranking members, in an airstrike in Khan Younis.
A displaced Palestinian boy in Gaza City on 28 October. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have over the past few weeks resumed intense operations in the north of Gaza, claiming they are seeking to stop Hamas, the militant group ruling Gaza, from regrouping.
Meanwhile, top UN officials said in a statement on Friday that the situation in northern Gaza is “apocalyptic” and the entire Palestinian population in the area is at “imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence”.
The overall number of people killed in Gaza in the 13-month war is more than 43,000, officials from the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, reported this week.
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Civil defence members work at a site damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: Reuters
It comes as at least 41 people were killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Baalbek region on Friday, the regional governor said.
The deaths were confirmed hours after Lebanon’s health ministry said 30 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on the country in the past 24 hours.
It is not clear if any of those killed in the Baalbek region were included in that figure.
In recent days, Israel has intensified its airstrikes on the northeast city of Baalbek and nearby villages, as well as different parts of southern Lebanon, prompting roughly 60,000 people to flee their homes, according to Hussein Haj Hassan, a Lebanese official representing the region.
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Israel has issued evacuation orders for people living in parts of Lebanon
Israel’s military said in a statement that attacks “in the area of Beirut” had targeted Hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites, command centres and other infrastructure.
Israeli planes also pounded Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh overnight, destroying dozens of buildings in several neighbourhoods, according to the Lebanese state news agency.
More than 2,800 people have been killed and 13,000 wounded since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalated after Hamas’s 7 October attack last year, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said.
Meanwhile, in northern Israel, seven people, including three Israelis and four Thai nationals, were killed by projectiles fired from Lebanon on Thursday, Israeli medics said.
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