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A leaked Foreign Office report warned government ministers on 22 July that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would lead to ‘rapid Taliban advances’, a senior Conservative MP has claimed.

Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, told Sky News that the department’s own principle risk report on Afghanistan suggested the country’s cities were in danger of being taken over more than three weeks before the UK government launched Operation Pitting in the middle of August.

Reading the alleged document to MPs during an almost two-hour questioning on the UK’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, Mr Tugendhat said the report stressed the move could lead to “the fall of cities”, the “collapse of security forces” and that the embassy may need to close.

Foreign Secratary Dominic Raab giving evidence to the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee in London, about the Government's handling of the Afghanistan crisis
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Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says intelligence suggested Kabul was ‘unlikely’ to fall this year

It came as Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab told MPs that the “central assessment” of ministers had been that Kabul was “unlikely” to fall this year.

Mr Raab said: “The central assessment that we were operating to – and it was certainly backed up by the JIC (Joint Intelligence Committee) and the military – is that the most likely, the central proposition, was that given the troop withdrawal by the end of August, you’d see a steady deterioration from that point, and it was unlikely Kabul would fall this year.”

He noted that this line of thinking remained “until late”, but stressed that work to develop an evacuation plan was ongoing from June.

But Mr Tugendhat, who chaired the gruelling interrogation of Mr Raab over the situation in Afghanistan and served in the region himself, claimed the leaked document stressed the volatile nature of the country much sooner and said there is “an issue with intelligence”.

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“The Foreign Office’s own principle risk report highlighted in July, on 22 July, the risk of complete failure in Afghanistan – and now we are seeing, even now, people who didn’t make it out in time,” Mr Tugendhat told Sky News.

“So there is a lesson to be learned there.”

He added: “I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the last few weeks who are very keen that I should understand exactly what has been going on inside the Foreign Office, inside other elements of government.

Committee chairman Tom Tugendhat speaking to the media at the Armagh city hotel as members of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee came to Northern Ireland to discuss foreign policy and Brexit.  PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday June 13, 2019. See PA story ULSTER Politics. Photo credit should read: Niall Carson/PA Wire
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Tom Tugendhat said the document had been given to him by ‘somebody who was in a position to know’

“And I have been extremely careful in which bits of information I use and which bits I don’t in order to protect absolutely the security of our nation and those areas where we do need to be cautious.

“But I think in a warning like this, which clearly has now been well-overtaken by events, revealing that it was made on 22 July is a matter of public interest.”

Asked if the leaked report was provided by a whistleblower, Mr Tugendhat continued: “It is a report given to me by somebody who was in a position to know.

“Well it is quite clear that there are two kinds of intelligence failures: there are those failures where the intelligence agency failed to provide the intelligence – and that is the traditional meaning of the word.

“And there is a second kind of intelligence failure where whoever is the principle didn’t read it.

“I am afraid you can’t blame the spies if the officers don’t read the report.”

Mr Tugendhat referenced the report, which is not publicly available, during Mr Raab’s committee hearing questioning highlighting that there was a risk Afghanistan could collapse.

Taliban special force fighters arrive inside the Hamid Karzai International Airport after the U.S. military's withdrawal, in Kabul, Afghanistan PIC:AP
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Taliban fighters pictured at the Hamid Karzai International Airport. Pic :AP

The committee chairman read out an extract of the document which stated clearly that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan would result in rapid Taliban advances which could lead to the fall of cities and the collapse of security forces.

Mr Raab asked for the source of the information before flicking through his folder and responding with details about the central assessment – the intelligence picture the Foreign Office was working from when it made decisions about Afghanistan.

This, he said, stated that it was unlikely Kabul would fall before the end of the year.

This assessment, which was backed by the independent Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and military chiefs, remained the driving force behind government policy until “late”, despite other sources which stated more action might need to be taken.

But Mr Tugendhat suggested the JIC assessment appears to be at odds with the department’s own risk report.

The foreign secretary has faced criticism after it emerged he was on holiday in Crete while the Taliban was advancing on Kabul.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab leaves the Foreign Office in Westminster, London,
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The foreign secretary has faced criticism after it emerged he was on holiday in Crete while the Taliban was advancing on Kabul

The leaked document suggests Mr Raab travelled abroad on holiday after his own department advised Kabul was at imminent risk of falling.

It also poses more questions as to why more was not done sooner to extract British nationals from Afghanistan.

During the committee hearing, Labour MP Chris Bryant asked Mr Raab if he was already on holiday on 11 August – when the US assessed the Taliban were likely to capture the whole of Afghanistan.

He also noted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Mr Raab and the top civil servant at the Foreign Office were all on holiday at the same time.

The foreign secretary repeatedly refused to answer questions about his trip and said he would not participate in a “fishing exercise”.

Meanwhile, Conservative Bob Seely pressed Mr Raab on why the UK’s intelligence was “clearly wrong” about how quickly the Taliban would take over Afghanistan.

The foreign secretary replied that there was some “optimism” from the US but admits that “clearly” the assessment they could not advance at the speed they did was “not correct”.

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Farage says West ‘provoked’ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with EU and NATO expansions

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Farage says West 'provoked' Russia's invasion of Ukraine with EU and NATO expansions

Nigel Farage has reiterated that he blames the West and NATO for the Russian invasion of Ukraine – as he confirmed that he previously said he “admired” Vladimir Putin as a statesman.

Speaking to the BBC, the Reform UK leader was asked about his previous comments on Russia and Ukraine.

Asked about Russia’s 2022 invasion, Mr Farage told Nick Robinson that he had been saying since the fall of the Berlin Wall that there would be a war in Ukraine due to the “ever-eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union”.

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He said this was giving Mr Putin a reason to tell the Russian people “they’re coming for us again” and go to war.

The Reform leader confirmed his belief the West “provoked” the conflict – but said it was “of course” the Russian president’s “fault”.

Pic: Reuters
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Mr Farage was asked about the war in Ukraine. Pic: Reuters

Previous comments Mr Farage made about Mr Putin were also put to him.

He was asked about comments he made in 2014 stating that Mr Putin was the statesman he most admired.

Mr Farage said he disliked the Russian leader – but “I admired him as a political operator because he’s managed to take control” of running the country.

“This is the nonsense, you know, you can pick any figure, current or historical, and say, you know, did they have good aspects?” he added.

“And if you said, ‘well, they were very talented in one area,’ then suddenly you’re the biggest supporter.”

Conservative candidates – who may be feeling the threat of a Reform surge in the polls – were quick to condemn the Reform leader.

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Home Secretary James Cleverly said Mr Farage was “echoing Putin’s vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine”.

Deputy Conservative chair Jonathan Gullis added that Putin is “certainly not someone who should be admired” – adding that he “unleashed chemical warfare on the streets of our country to commit murder, which endangered further innocent British lives”.

Labour’s shadow defence secretary, John Healey, said: “These are disgraceful comments, which reveal the true face of Nigel Farage: a Putin apologist who should never be trusted with our nation’s security.

“Up until now, there has been a united front amongst Britain’s political leaders in supporting the people of Ukraine against the unprovoked and unjustifiable assault they have suffered at the hands of Vladimir Putin.

“Nigel Farage has put himself outside that united position, and shown that he would rather lick Vladimir Putin’s boots than stand up for the people of Ukraine. That makes him unfit for any political office in our country, let alone leading a serious party in parliament.”

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Mr Farage was also asked about Brexit, and how it has impacted the UK.

He was asked about previous comments he made when he said Brexit had “failed”.

The former UKIP leader said this is what “the Conservatives have done with it”.

“If you put me in charge it’d be very, very different,” he claimed, “but of course they didn’t do that, did they?”

On his party’s climate policies, Mr Farage said he wants to “go for nuclear energy” and scrap the existing net zero programme.

He rejected that he was “arguing the science” on climate change, but that “we spend too much time hyperventilating about the problem, rather than thinking practically and logically what we can do”.

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Mr Farage added that King Charles – who was then a prince – made a “very stupid comment” when he said carbon dioxide was a pollutant.

The Reform leader then said that, by deindustrialising, the CO2 production had been sent offshore to places like India and “all we’ve done is to export the emissions”.

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