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One decade ago, I was writing about the rapid growth of solar power in the United States and the exciting forecast for much more solar growth in the country. The past couple of years have again brought record solar installations in the United States, and record solar activity more broadly. Of course, this is driven in large part by record-low solar prices, but not only.

Chart by U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report.

What’s Driving US Solar Power Growth?

Money, money, money — it’s hard to say that most of this growth doesn’t come down to continuous solar panel cost drops over the past decade, which as I reported last year led to an average rooftop solar power price of $2.19/watt across the USA and a Tesla rooftop solar power price of $1.49/watt across the country. Both prices are the price after the US solar tax credit, aka Investment Tax Credit (ITC), takes 26% off the consumer cost.

Related, the federal solar tax credit was on the verge of dropping from 26% of the cost of a solar power system to 22% after 2020, but it was extended at the end of the year. A desire to get the 26% credit before it was cut to 22% surely led to a solar power rush throughout the year. It turns out the tax credit was extended at the end of the year, but that doesn’t mean the systems installed due to the potential expiration are any less real.

How Much Did US Solar Power Grow In 2020?

As noted above, the big-picture view is of solar activity — or solar PV module shipments — which includes solar panel (aka solar module) imports, solar panel exports, solar panels produced, and solar panels sold domestically. (I know, it seems like a somewhat weird accumulation of different activities.) They rose to 21.8 million peak kilowatts (kW) of solar power capacity in 2020, by far their best ever. In fact, that was 5.4 million peak kW above 2019’s total, their previous best.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration adds that the COVID-19 crisis may have given rooftop solar a boost, too. “Demand for residential solar installations increased in 2020 in part because people were spending more time at home, which in turn resulted in an increased interest in home improvement.”

Though, the growth wasn’t all about rooftop solar. In fact, utility-scale solar saw an even bigger growth spurt than rooftop solar. Utility-scale solar PV installations (1 MW and above) rose by 29% in 2020, compared to 2019, whereas small-scale solar rose by 19%. The average of the two was 25% growth.

average US solar panel prices 2010-2020

Graph by U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report

Low solar power costs combined with growing awareness and greater increase in energy self-reliance have surely led to further solar power growth in 2021, but there likely won’t be a rush induced by changes to the tax incentives again until 2022, since the 26% credit extension went through 2022, dropping to 22% in 2023 (unless it gets extended again, but that seems unlikely).

“The average value (a proxy for price) of solar shipments decreased from $1.96 per peak watt in 2010 to $0.38 per peak watt in 2020,” the EIA writes, referencing the graph above. “Lower supply chain costs and an oversupply of modules because of increased production are largely responsible for the declines in the average value of solar PV modules over the past decade.”

And here are a few more stats from the EIA team, with lead writing by Lolita Jamison: “In 2020, 89% of U.S. solar PV module shipments were imports. PV module imports in 2020 totaled 19.3 million peak kilowatts (kW), an increase of 26% from the 15.3 million peak kW imported in 2019. Vietnam was the leading importer to the United States, followed by Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand.”

As far as where in the US all of this solar power gets installed, as could be expected, the three most populated states in the nation — each of which have more than ample solar energy resources — stand out well above the crowd. Though, #4 Virginia shows an impressively large contribution, coming out of nowhere compared to previous years (it was #14 in 2018 and #19 in 2019). North Carolina, South Carolina, and New York round out the top 7, with the first and the last in that trio very familiar with top rankings, and the middle child improving on a very solid 2019 total. Here’s a short bullet-point summary for the top 10 in 2020 since the table below is a bit hard to read (all figures in MWdc):

  1. California — 3904
  2. Texas — 3425
  3. Florida — 2822
  4. Virginia — 1406
  5. North Carolina — 785
  6. South Carolina — 617
  7. New York — 544
  8. Arizona — 503
  9. Utah — 427
  10. New Jersey — 387

Table courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

2021 and Beyond

What will 2021, 2022, and 2023 bring?

The U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) projects that 2021 will set an even significantly stronger solar power installation record, and then will grow a bit more gradually in 2022 and 2023 before dropping off for a few years in 2024, 2025, and 2026 due to the US solar tax credit reduction.

Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

The trends are expected to be approximately the same in both the small-scale (typically rooftop) solar PV market and the utility-scale solar PV market.

Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

Chart courtesy of U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

We shall see.

Is It Time To Go Solar?

This is always the question, and the answer is always “yes.” There are a variety of factors to consider and it’s a decision for each person, family, or business to look at closely themselves. However, year after year, it is typically the case that there’s a lot of money to be made, or saved, by going solar. If financing, the long-term savings often beat business-as-usual retail electricity purchasing. If considering a cash purchase, one can also take into account other investment opportunities and risk-reward levels. One way or another, though, going solar often makes financial sense. And when you take into account the climate catastrophe we’re facing, it’s just the right thing to do.

Considering going solar at a home or business? If so, I always recommend getting at least 3 quotes from solar installers (they’re always free), looking carefully at the terms and conditions, and consulting with someone who has already gone solar if you have the opportunity. If you end up deciding on going solar with Tesla, feel free to use my referral code — https://ts.la/zachary63404 — for a $100 discount (and a bit of a bonus for me, too). That works for either conventional solar panels or a Tesla Solar Roof (solar tiles).

 

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Hyundai recalls more than 145,000 EVs

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Hyundai recalls more than 145,000 EVs

Hyundai Motors is recalling 145,235 EVs and other “electrified” vehicles in the US, citing concerns about a loss of driving power, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Friday.

The NHTSA announced this morning that the recall affects selected IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 EVs, as well as certain luxury Genesis models, including the GV60, GV70, and G80 electrified variants, from the 2022-2025 model years, Reuters reported.

2025-Hyundai-IONIQ-5-prices
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 (Source: Hyundai)

It looks like the issue stems from “the integrated charging control units in these vehicles, which may become damaged and fail to charge the 12-volt battery. This malfunction could lead to a complete loss of drive power, posing safety risks for drivers,” the NHTSA stated.

If you’re an owner of one of these Hyundai models dating 2022-2025, stay tuned. Hyundai has not yet provided a timeline as to when affected vehicles will be repaired.

To make that happen, the company’s dealers will inspect and replace the charging unit and its fuse if necessary, NHTSA said. Free of charge, of course.

Importantly, no crashes, injuries, fatalities, or fires due to this issue have been reported in the US, Hyundai reported.


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Tesla brings ‘Actually Smart Summon’ to Europe and Middle East where FSD is limited

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Tesla brings 'Actually Smart Summon' to Europe and Middle East where FSD is limited

Tesla announced that ‘Actually Smart Summon,’ its autonomous driving feature that enables moving its vehicles without anyone inside over short distances, is now being launched in Europe and the Middle East.

The automaker’s Full Self-Driving suite of features has been limited in those markets due to regulations and Tesla’s focus on making them work in North America first.

Actually Smart Summon is the vision-only version of Tesla’s “smart summon” feature, which was released years ago on Tesla vehicles with ultrasonic sensors.

When Tesla transitioned away from ultrasonic sensors, Smart Summon was one of the missing features that Tesla had yet to adapt to the vision-only (cameras and neural nets) system.

CEO Elon Musk said that it would be coming in 2022, but it finally came only a few months ago, in 2024.

However, that’s only in North America where Tesla focuses its Full Self-Driving (FSD) development, the feature package that includes Actually Smart Summon, also referred to as ‘ASS’.

Most of Tesla’s other markets, including Europe, don’t have the same capabilities under the Full Self-Driving package. That’s partly due to regulations, but Tesla also focuses on making the features work on North American roads first.

Now, Tesla has announced that its Actually Smart Summon feature is launching in Europe and the Middle East:

The feature can only be used on private roads, like parking lots and driveways. Most people have used it to bring their vehicles parked in a large parking lot to them as they exit a store or restaurant. However, the vehicle moves quite slowly under the feature and the owner needs to keep an eye on it at all time and be ready to cancel the summon as Tesla doesn’t take any responsibility for accidents caused by using Actually Smart Summon., like all other FSD features.

Therefore, most people I know who have the feature, myself included, tried once or try to see or impress some friends who have never seen a car move without anyone inside and then stopped using it.

The feature’s main useful use-case is for people with extremely tight parking spots. It enables them to exit the vehicle before it is in its final parking spot and then move the car in and out remotely.

However, that has been the case for years with the regular Smart Summon, as you generally don’t need the vehicle to handle complex parking lots. You mostly need it to move a few feet forward or backward.

But a recent update has broken this feature for some people. We recently reported on a very unfortunate situation that resulted in a Tesla owner having to get out of his car through his trunk.

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Big auto learned its lesson? It’s begging Trump not to blow up emissions rules

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Big auto learned its lesson? It's begging Trump not to blow up emissions rules

US Automakers are planning to ask Mr. Trump to retain President Biden’s EPA exhaust rules, in the face of signs that Mr. Trump might try to reverse them. If the rules are reversed, it would cost Americans hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of deaths per year.

Interestingly, this is the opposite of what big auto did the last time a reality TV show came to the White House – signaling that they have perhaps learned their lesson this time ’round.

First, some history.

In the middle of the 20th century, the effects of human activity on the atmosphere became readily apparent. Certain cities – with Los Angeles among the forefront – were choked by smog, and it was soon found out that vehicle pollution was the primary reason for this smog.

Since Los Angeles was one of the most smog-choked cities, California led the way on clean air regulation, creating the California Air Resources Board in 1967 (under then-Governor Ronald Reagan).

The federal government gave California special dispensation to set stricter regulations than the rest of the country, in recognition that it had a unique smog problem in its primary metropolis. California has retained this dispensation, in the form of a “waiver,” since then. And other states can follow California’s rules, but only if they copy all of the rules exactly.

Thus, there have been two separate sets of clean air regulation in this country since then – the federal rules, and then the “CARB states” which follow California’s rules.

In 2012 that finally changed, when President Obama’s EPA negotiated with California to finally harmonize these standards and also implement higher fuel efficiency nationwide. This would have been a huge boon for both industry and consumers, saving money and giving regulatory certainty to the auto industry.

But then, in 2016, the candidate who got the 2nd most votes in the presidential election was headed for the White House. And automakers responded by immediately lobbying to torpedo these standards, even before inauguration.

Now, you might think that asking a profoundly ignorant individual, who ended up staffing the EPA with bought-and-sold science deniers (huh, that would never happen again would it?), to change rules which had already been set through years of negotiation and lobbying was not a great idea. And you’d be right.

Not long after automakers had the dumb idea to ask an idiot to fix something that wasn’t broken, that idiot went and broke things further, fracturing the agreement between California and the federal government and ensuring less regulatory certainty for automakers.

After realizing their blunder (which they could have avoided by, y’know, thinking at all about it beforehand), big auto relented and asked the government to please not implement the rollbacks automakers had asked for. Some companies even forged their own agreement with California.

But it was too late, and we are now back in the era of disparate regulatory regimes – something which John Bozzella, head of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (formerly called Global Automakers), keeps complaining about these days, despite having lobbied for exactly this in the first place.

The US EPA and California are still not fully harmonized, but both released recent new standards which do have somewhat similar targets. If a manufacturer builds towards one set of rules, they’ll probably not be too far off from meeting the other.

So in the end, we did get better emissions regulations and California has continued to push forward with clean air regulations, thus signaling a failure on the part of Mr. Trump to cause the long term harm to Americans that he and his oil industry solicitors so desperately seem to desire.

The most recent EPA standards, finalized in March (after being softened at the auto industry’s request), do not mandate any particular powertrain, but rather require steep emissions cuts – and EVs are the easiest way to achieve lower emissions.

Notably, Tesla lobbied in favor of making this last set of standards stronger, and they also lobbied against ruining the Obama/CA standards in 2016 – being one of very few automakers who were on the correct side of that discussion.

Despite that the President Biden EPA’s rules do not mandate any particular powertrain, Mr. Trump, in his usual ignorance, has said that he will end the nonexistent EV mandate. And now that he has received more votes than his opponent for the first time (after three tries, and despite committing treason in 2021 for which there is a clear legal remedy), it looks like the upcoming EPA might be directed to end these emissions cuts and fuel/health cost savings for Americans.

But in this instance, it sounds like the automakers might actually do the right thing for once, and ask the government not to do any rollbacks, and instead let them continue on with the plans without disruption from a convicted felon who seems determined to cede a US EV manufacturing boom back to China.

Detroit’s Big Three automakers – GM, Ford and Stellantis – are all reportedly trying to figure out how to ensure that these rules stay in place. The mentality is that constantly changing regulations are not beneficial for companies – particularly in the auto realm, where models take on the order of 7 years to plan and execute. Long-term planning is important for the hundreds of billions in manufacturing investment that EVs have attracted in the US during Biden’s EV push.

These attitudes are notable, given that this is not what automakers did in 2016/2017. That time, they compulsively pushed for fewer regulations, and now they are asking for regulations to remain in place.

It’s further notable that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company lobbied strongly in favor of emissions cuts and makes more use of the federal EV tax credit than any other company, is now allied with the very entity that’s looking to harm EVs. It seems that we have entered opposite world.

So it remains to be seen where we will go from here – on the one hand, doctorsnursesscientists, environmental groupsmany businessespeople who recognize that they have lungs which they would like to continue using, and so on, generally support the strongest regulation possible. Now, automakers have been added to the pile asking for strong regulations.

On the other hand, a former reality TV host – tagged along with by the CEO of the company that has sold more electric cars than any other – seem determined to kill electric cars, despite the harm that would cause to Americans’ pocketbooks and health insurance premiums. And that famously vindictive character may be even more spurred towards this harmful course of action after failing in his efforts the first time.

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