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Exactly one month from today, Major League Baseball’s 2021 regular season will come to a close.

When it does, which of the current contenders will be headed to the playoffs? Which teams will be on the outside looking in? Will the San Francisco Giants edge the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, or vice versa? Who will be the favorites to reach the Fall Classic? How will the MVP and Cy Young award races shape up? What will Shohei Ohtani‘s final batting and pitching lines look like at the end of the two-way star’s historic year for the Los Angeles Angels?

And what other surprises might await us down the stretch?

To get a sense of what the final month of the regular season might bring, we convened a panel of 17 ESPN baseball experts to answer some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond. We also asked them to justify their answers — particularly those who went against the grain.

Below, you’ll find our picks for the postseason, the major awards and more, including a few out-on-a-limb answers and some bold predictions about what’s next.

Which team currently in or very close to the playoff field is most likely to miss out?

Reds: 8
Red Sox: 5
Padres: 2
A’s: 1
Yankees: 1

So we’re not sold on the Reds, eh? None of the teams that would currently make the playoffs are really floundering. The Reds are probably the closest to a team playing over its head, while the Padres are the one team in striking distance that has fallen short of expectations. Cincinnati may hold on, and the field grows more crowded by the day, but San Diego has more talent than the Reds, Cardinals or Phillies. — Bradford Doolittle

Nor the Red Sox? Let me just say: I still think the Red Sox make the postseason. But if there’s anything likely at this point to completely derail a team, it’s a COVID-19 outbreak that turns over a third of the roster, and that’s exactly what the Red Sox are dealing with right now. They’ve weathered it reasonably well so far, but they’ve still got series against the Rays and White Sox over the next 10 days, and with Oakland just one game back in the loss column and Toronto ever lurking and dangerous, the Red Sox have work to do if they want to send Chris Sale to the mound in the AL wild-card game. — Jeff Passan

Who will finish the regular season with more wins: the Giants or the Dodgers — and how many W’s for each?

Dodgers: 11 (High: 105; Low: 99; Average: 102)

Giants: 6 (High: 105; Low: 98; Average: 101)

Why the Dodgers? While San Francisco is without a doubt the biggest surprise team in the majors this year, it will feel like a heartbreak when the Giants finish second — because they’re going to wind up with 102 or 103 regular-season victories and get stuck playing a one-game wild-card in the postseason. A great year of progress will all come down to those nine innings. The Dodgers, building on the momentum they have gathered since the trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, will finish with 105 victories. They may not be one of the best teams of all time, which seemed possible in April, but they’ve got the best shot of any team since the Yankees clubs of 1996-2000 to go back-to-back. — Buster Olney

Why the Giants? While some of the Giants’ September schedule is tough, as they’ll take on the Padres and Dodgers in the division, about half their games are against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Rockies. The Giants aren’t one of these highly volatile teams with huge swings at home or on the road or against plus and minus .500 teams. They’re solid in all areas. There’s no reason to think they’ll slow down in the final month after playing great baseball for so long. They may get beat out by the Dodgers but it’ll be because Los Angeles is just that good. The Giants will keep proving they are as well. — Jesse Rogers

You voted for a season-ending tiebreaker. Paint us a picture. The great NL race between the surprising Giants and star-laden Dodgers goes down to the wire — and ends in a tie, both teams with 103 wins. So we get the third Giants-Dodgers tiebreaker in history, following 1951 (“The Giants win the pennant!”) and 1962 (the Giants won that one as well, with four runs in the top of the ninth in Game 3 when it was a best-of-three). The Dodgers go with Walker Buehler and he clinches the Cy Young Award with a 4-0 shutout win, relegating the Giants to the wild card. — David Schoenfield

Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL?

Rays 14
Astros 2
White Sox 1

What makes the Rays so dominant? The Rays are the best-run organization in baseball from rookie ball through the major leagues. Their secret, among many, is that everyone plays, everyone contributes. Their 25th man is better than anyone else’s 25th man. Their 20th through 25th men are better than any other team’s 20th through 25th. The Yankees won 13 games in a row in August, and lost ground to the Rays, making the Yankees the fourth team in history to do that in any month, the first since the 1965 Giants. — Tim Kurkjian

Yet you chose the Astros. Why? It’s as simple as the schedule: The Astros’ remaining slate is a little easier than the Rays’ — those being my top two candidates — and when the two teams link up for three in the final week, with home field probably on the line, the games will be played in Houston. Plus, the Astros are a better — and healthier — team today than the one we’ve seen the past month-plus, with Alex Bregman and Jose Urquidy now back (or close to it, with the latter). — Tristan Cockcroft

And you were the one person who chose the White Sox. Why Chicago? Six of Chicago’s last nine series will come against teams that don’t have anything to play for in this final month (two against the Tigers and one each against the Royals, Angels, Rangers and Indians). The Rays, residing at the top of a fiercely competitive division, still have to play the Blue Jays (twice), Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. It’s a massive gap to make up, I know, but the White Sox have the talent to get scorching hot when they want. — Alden Gonzalez

The 2021 World Series matchup will be … ?

AL
White Sox 7
Astros 5
Rays 4
Yankees 1

NL
Dodgers 12
Giants 3
Brewers 2

Dodgers-White Sox was our most-picked matchup. Why will these two teams meet in October? The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. The White Sox might not be the best team in their own league, and they’re six games back of the best record, but here’s what they do have. Luis Robert, healthy and awesome. Yasmani Grandal, healthy and awesome. Perhaps the deepest lineup in the league. Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dylan Cease. And a fearsome bullpen, which has been pretty rough, truthfully, in the second half but is calibrated for playoff excellence. Explaining why the Dodgers is like explaining why cookies. Just because, OK? The White Sox, on the other hand, might ultimately not be the best, but they look the part more than any of their AL contemporaries. — Passan

Our runners-up in each league were the Astros and Giants. You picked both. What makes you think they’re the teams to beat? The Giants have been consistently excellent. Their offense remains a constant threat for the long ball, yet their pitching keeps the ball in the ballpark. They get the quick score, but make opponents work for every run. The Astros have been a run-differential machine, outscoring opponents through a high-powered offense that got healthier with the return of Alex Bregman. Their pitching has been effective with a mix of young arms coming into their own, excellent defense and strong additions in the bullpen at the trade deadline. These are undoubtedly two of the best teams in baseball, and there is no clear favorite over either of them in their respective leagues. The Astros have shown they can get smoking hot; no reason they can’t do the same in the postseason. — Doug Glanville

You cast the lone vote for the Yankees — and one of just two for the Brewers. Tell us why. When your preseason pick is still alive, despite some ups and downs, now is not the time to abandon it. The Yankees fixed their lineup at the trade deadline and have a sneaky-effective starting staff. If Aroldis Chapman has one good month in him, watch out: The men in pinstripes will pull off an upset or two and still be standing for the Fall Classic. On the other side, how can you not like the Brewers? They have everything a team needs to go all the way — a solid offense, three top starters and a good bullpen led by lefty Josh Hader. On top of everything, they have dominated the powerhouse NL West all season, compiling a 23-9 record against the division including a 12-6 mark against the Dodgers, Giants and Padres so far. Milwaukee should be one of the favorites in the NL. — Rogers

The 2021 AL and NL MVPs will be … ?

AL
Shohei Ohtani 17

NL
Fernando Tatis Jr. 13
Bryce Harper 2
Freddie Freeman 1
Trea Turner 1

How great has Ohtani been? The most futile task in sports is defining Shohei Ohtani’s season. Comparisons no longer work, since there are no longer any reputable comparisons. The stat-facts that begin, “Shohei Ohtani became the first player in 103 years to do something that nobody will ever do again,” have long ago lapsed into parody. Adjectives — astonishing, incredible, unprecedented — are true but unhelpful. He is not just a pitcher who hits, or a hitter who pitches; he is among the top four or five most proficient people in the world at both. He has consistently thrown the ball faster than anybody in baseball while consistently hitting the ball harder and farther than anybody in baseball. It is, in a word, indescribable. — Tim Keown

Why vote for Harper — and not Tatis? Tatis, who seems to lack his typically infectious energy since making the temporary move to the outfield, could be another shoulder subluxation away from his season coming to an abrupt end. Harper doesn’t have those concerns. And he has been scorching hot at the plate, batting .332/.448/.668 since the start of July. There’s no reason for that not to carry over into what will be a critical September for his Phillies. — Gonzalez

And the Cy Youngs will go to … ?

AL
Gerrit Cole 12
Lance Lynn 3
Robbie Ray 2

NL
Walker Buehler 12
Corbin Burnes 2
Zack Wheeler 2
Josh Hader 1

It’s Cole and Buehler by a mile. What gives them such a huge edge? This is really just a case of consistency meeting expectation, for both pitchers. To start the season, Cole and Jacob deGrom were the consensus best pitchers in the game. Cole started like a house on fire, fell off some after the new sticky-stuff enforcement (but not all that much, really) and has since resumed his place atop the pecking order. Buehler was probably more like the fourth- or fifth-best NL pitcher going into the season (by perception). Then deGrom got hurt, Clayton Kershaw got hurt, etc. Buehler has been the only elite NL hurler to exceed expectation over the course of the full season. Because Cole and Buehler are doing what they were supposed to do, there’s no reason to think it won’t continue to the end of the season. So they have become no-brainer Cy Young picks in their respective leagues. — Doolittle

Buehler? Buehler? Sorry, friends, but you biffed the NL Cy Young voting. What if I told you there’s a pitcher who leads all qualified starters in strikeouts per nine, ranks third in walks per nine and leads in homers per nine with a number nearly twice as good as the next guy? He is the Cy Young winner, right? Of course he is, which is why the choice of the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler over Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes is just wrong. The AL isn’t cut-and-dried, either, with Robbie Ray and Lance Lynn at least in Gerrit Cole’s neighborhood. But overlooking Burnes is silly. Buehler has been undeniable: an MLB-best 2.05 ERA, 176 innings pitched (ranking second overall), great peripherals. A vote for Buehler is understandable. It’s just not the right choice when Burnes is punching out 12.24 per nine, walking 1.68 in the same time period and allowing only five home runs in 139 innings. This much is for sure: The winner of the NL Cy Young almost certainly will have a last name that starts with B-U. — Passan

Why Josh Hader? I am getting more and more reluctant to give this award to a “starter.” The ability to win a game is so much more heavily dependent on the right matchups in the bullpen. Even the best starters do not complete games or even enter the seventh inning, let alone the ninth. That might not be their fault, but someone like Lance Lynn, who has had a great year, averages less than six innings per start. If Craig Kimbrel had the kind of year he is having but had been in the American League all season, he would deserve a lot of votes — just as someone like Ryan Pressly is worth considering. But as we know, there is a lot of baseball left and relievers’ numbers can implode with one bad outing. — Glanville

This has been the Year of Shohei Ohtani. What will be his final batting and pitching lines?

Average batting line: 49 HR, 107 RBIs, .262 BA

Average pitching line: 10-2, 159 SO, 3.07 ERA

As a group, we have Ohtani finishing just shy of 50 homers. You were the high vote — at 51. Why? Ohtani would need nine homers in September to get to 51, something he has done in two of the five months so far this season — in June, when he hit 13 homers, and in July, when he hit nine. August was Ohtani’s worst month at the plate — he slashed just .202/.345/.404 — but given that the Angels won’t be making the playoffs, all that’s left for September (and the first few days of October) is putting the cherry on top of his magical season. — Joon Lee

Looks like Mike Trout was right. Ohtani will finish with 50 homers, and 10 victories — which means that Trout’s preseason prediction of 30-plus homers and 10-plus wins for Ohtani will be right on. It’s been a frustrating, injury-plagued season for Trout, but he saw before anybody how extraordinary Ohtani’s season would be. — Olney

Ohtani … for Cy Young? Ohtani will get MVP votes and Cy Young votes. And I think he stays at his current pace. He has been amazingly consistent considering the many roles he is playing. That alone is amazing. My first full season as an everyday starter, I completely collapsed in September. It is hard enough to be an everyday player, let alone at this level in more than one major role. — Glanville

Make one bold prediction about the final stretch

In the American League …

The Yankees will win the AL East. — Marly Rivera

The Red Sox have appeared to be in deep trouble multiple times this year, and each time, mainly because of manager Alex Cora, they pull out of it and start winning again. The Yankees looked like they were going to run away with the first wild-card spot, then became the first team since the 1994 Royals to lose three in a row directly after winning 13 in a row. These teams are headed for a tie at the end of the regular season for the first wild-card spot. Then we will get Gerrit Cole against Chris Sale in a winner-take-all game. It can’t get much better than that. — Kurkjian

In the National League …

Atlanta has me believing. The Braves will double their lead in the division and win it by eight or more games, something that was inconceivable a month or so ago. — Rogers

The San Diego Padres will find their way and climb their way back to the playoffs. This is the first major obstacle that the Tatis-era Padres face, given the expectations placed on the team. This Padres core has the potential to be one of the defining teams of this era of baseball, but talent can take you only so far, especially in a sport with so many games. This squad clearly has the talent to go far in the postseason, but these Padres will need to overcome some obstacles and gain some experience under their belt to establish themselves as a serious postseason force. — Lee

The Brewers will tie the Giants with 100 wins and earn the NL’s No. 1 seed. Everyone’s talking about the exciting NL West race, but the Brewers boast three legit aces, the best one-two bullpen tandem and an emerging offense, especially after Christian Yelich hit .313 in August. Perhaps his power returns soon, too. This is a dangerous team, with an appealing September schedule, and definitely a World Series contender. — Eric Karabell

The Mets discourse gets even more dismal. I sent in that prediction before the Zack Scott DWI, marking the “thumbs down” circus as the spot from where I thought things would get worse — and they already have. The Mets are down to a single-digit percentage chance of making the playoffs and now there is widespread and well-founded concern about literally every single part of the organization. The Mets have two first-round draft picks next summer, but this group just oversaw the worst draft-related disaster in recent memory. The Mets should be competitive next year, but I don’t see them taking a step forward until at least 2023, unless drastic (and successful) changes are made. The changes part is looking more likely by the day, but the successful part is still an open question. — Kiley McDaniel

In both leagues …

The Phillies rally past the Braves to win the NL East and end the longest playoff drought in the NL and, in even more improbable fashion, the Mariners rally past the A’s and Red Sox to win the second wild card and end the longest playoff drought in the majors (since 2001). Since the Reds will also make the playoffs, the new longest playoff drought will belong to the Tigers and Angels, who last made it in 2014. — Schoenfield

As for individual players …

Logan Webb will become known far and wide. Webb has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 consecutive starts. He is proof that a sinker-slider guy who doesn’t rely on spin rate and the high fastball can still dominate major league hitters. He throws a “heavy ball” — “Like catching a shot put,” Giants catcher Curt Casali says — and his wipeout slider is becoming one of the best pitches in the game. One huge reason the Giants have been able to remain the best team in baseball: Second-half Webb has been first-half Kevin Gausman. Right now, he is the guy to start a wild-card game or the first game of a series. If you don’t know him, you will soon. Hitters already do. — Keown

The Royals’ Salvador Perez will not only blow by Johnny Bench’s record for homers by a primary catcher in a season, but he’ll also break Jorge Soler‘s Royals record (48) and become the first backstop to go deep 50 times. — Doolittle

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win the American League’s Triple Crown. Maybe that isn’t such a crazy thought, because as we closed on August, Vlad Jr. led the AL in runs, hits, on-base percentage, total bases and OPS+. His biggest challenge will be leading the AL in RBIs, given Jose Abreu‘s lead. But remember: Vlad Jr. has a bunch of games left against the Orioles, and White Sox manager Tony La Russa will be customizing Abreu’s workload to prepare him for October. — Olney

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2025-26 CFP Player Rank: Which players made the top 50?

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2 mins ago

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December 17, 2025

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2025-26 CFP Player Rank: Which players made the top 50?

Dec 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Skim through the Heisman Trophy voting, and seven of the top 10 players will be on the field in this year’s College Football Playoff. Our apologies to Jeremiyah Love, whom we’d love to see there, too, but that’s an issue for Notre Dame and the ACC to work out.

But that list only scratches the surface of the depth of talent that will be showcased in this year’s playoff. From Ohio State‘s wealth of riches to James Madison’s band of upstarts, the 12 teams that made this year’s playoff are loaded with future NFL draft picks, college stars and under-the-radar gems just waiting to become household names on the sport’s biggest stage.

Before the games kicked off, ESPN’s panel of experts (Bill Connelly, David Hale, Max Olson and Adam Rittenberg) attempted to whittle down those 12 rosters to provide the definitive ranking of the 50 best players in this year’s playoff. It was no easy task. We’ve left off a bevy of names that we’ll no doubt come to regret — Georgia’s KJ Bolden, Oregon‘s Bear Alexander and Alabama‘s Germie Bernard and Kadyn Proctor — but that’s only another reminder of just how much star power will be on display in the coming weeks.

The criteria for our list is much like the process used by the College Football Playoff committee, insofar as we mostly made it up as we went. But the bigger point here was to identify not only the players who put up the best numbers during the regular season or the biggest names on the teams most likely to make a deep run, but to find the best players, the ones who’ll have a chance to have postseason star turns the way Will Howard, Cam Skattebo and Jack Sawyer did in 2024.

So, who will be this year’s most impactful playoff performers? The list starts here. — David Hale

Jump to:
50-26 | 25-1

OG, Tulane, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 849 snaps, 2 pressures, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The 6-foot-2, 293-pound big man has developed into a three-year starter at left guard for the Green Wave and has earned first-team All-American Conference honors in back-to-back seasons. Veteran leaders such as Hurst are a big reason why this squad was able to reload for 2025 after losing top players to the portal and pull off an 11-win season and a run to the CFP. — Max Olson

WR, Oklahoma, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 65 rec, 948 rec yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The Arkansas transfer who emerged as a No. 1 receiver and All-SEC performer has been a massive development for helping Oklahoma overcome its recent offensive struggles. Sategna’s explosive touchdowns in close wins over Missouri and LSU played a big part in helping secure the Sooners’ CFP bid, and his 1,273 all-purpose yards were second most among all SEC wideouts. — Olson

QB, James Madison, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,533 yards, 21 TD, 61.2 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The Sun Belt Player of the Year has enjoyed a terrific two-year run as the Dukes’ starter with 6,117 total yards, 68 touchdowns, just 12 interceptions and a 20-5 record. He led his squad on an undefeated run through Sun Belt play with eight wins by double-digit margins and surpassed 300 total yards in five games, including a 448-yard performance against Old Dominion. — Olson

LB, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 35 solo tackles, 7 TFL, 2 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 77

Fisher, a three-year starter, was a first-team All-American in his debut season with the Hoosiers after transferring from James Madison and had another highly productive year as a key leader for the No. 2 scoring defense in FBS. The 6-foot-1, 231-pound senior had a season-high 13 stops in the Hoosiers’ pivotal road win at Oregon and opened their victory over UCLA with a pick-six. — Olson

QB, Miami, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 3,072 yards, 25 TDs, 80.5 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: 29

Beck bypassed the NFL draft for a sixth year in college and one more chance to make a deep CFP run with the Hurricanes. He returned from an elbow injury and in form this season with the second-best completion percentage in FBS and the top QBR in the ACC. Beck led four wins over AP top-25 opponents and has boosted his career record as a starter to 34-5. — Olson

QB, Texas A&M, redshirt sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,932 yards, 25 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After taking over as Texas A&M’s starter during the 2024 season, Reed took a big step forward in his third year with nearly 3,400 total yards and a top-five QBR in the SEC (77.8). He had what it took to lead the Aggies to a last-minute road victory at Notre Dame and a 27-point comeback against South Carolina on their way to an 11-0 start. When he gets hot, few dual-threat quarterbacks are more fun to watch. — Olson

OT, Ohio State, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 759 snaps, 0 sacks allowed
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After earning six starts at left guard last season for the national champions, Siereveld moved to left tackle and proved he could be among the Big Ten’s best, earning second-team all-conference honors from the league’s coaches. Siereveld and his fellow starters up front kept quarterback Julian Sayin protected throughout his run to becoming a Heisman finalist, with only 11 sacks allowed through 13 games. — Olson

DL, Oklahoma, senior
2025 notable stats: 21 pressures, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Thomas has played in only nine games, yet still earned first-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. He has been that impressive as a pass rusher and logged all 6.5 of his sacks in SEC play for a Sooners defense that’s leading the country in TFLs and sacks. Thomas sat out most of November because of a quad injury and is working to try to get back on the field for the CFP. — Olson

LB, Alabama, redshirt senior
2025 notable stats: 75 tackles, 37 solo, 3 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: 27

Lawson put in the work to come back from a torn ACL sustained late in the 2024 season and again played at an All-SEC level for the Crimson Tide as a senior. The two-time team captain delivered two of the biggest plays of the season for Alabama’s defense with his fourth-quarter strip against South Carolina and his fumble recovery against Auburn to clinch close victories. — Olson

QB, Alabama, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 3,268 yards, 26 TDs, 76.7 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Simpson did what QBs rarely do these days in waiting until Year 4 to become a starting QB. He proved he can perform under pressure in leading a run of four consecutive victories over ranked SEC foes to kick off conference play, and he went on to earn second-team All-SEC honors from the conference’s coaches. — Olson

DL, James Madison, redshirt freshman
2025 notable stats: 16 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

West put together a remarkable redshirt freshman season at JMU after logging only seven snaps a season ago. The 6-foot-4, 270-pound defensive end earned Sun Belt Freshman of the Year honors this season and currently ranks second in the conference in TFLs and third in sacks. He brought his best in the Sun Belt title game with nine pressures and three sacks in a 31-14 victory over Troy. — Olson

DT, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 TFL, 29 total tackles, 6 PBU
2025 preseason ranking: NR

He fortified Oregon’s defensive line in his first season as a starter, earning third-team All-Big Ten honors and contributing 29 tackles, four for loss, with five quarterback hurries and six pass breakups. Washington helped the Ducks rise to No. 9 nationally in points allowed. Oregon ranked 20th nationally against the run. — Adam Rittenberg

DT, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 55 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 8 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The 310-pound sophomore from Houston, Mississippi, was one of the stars of Ole Miss’ 2024 recruiting class, and he has enjoyed a breakout campaign as a first-time starter. He has made 45 of his 55 tackles against the run — five of his 11 run stops (tackles at or behind the line) came in tight midseason wins over LSU and Washington State — but he has also had 4.5 sacks. — Bill Connelly

OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 47 tackles, 9 sacks, 46 pressures
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Playing for his fourth school in five years, Height has been the perfect foil for any offense that tries to focus too much attention on David Bailey. The 24-year-old pass-rush specialist has nine sacks and an elite 18.4% pressure rate, and he has been remarkably consistent all season: He has recorded at least three pressures in 12 of 13 games, with at least a half-sack in eight. — Connelly

RB, James Madison, junior
2025 notable stats: 190 carries, 1,263 yards, 10 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The 5-foot-7, 190-pounder has evolved into the most important player on the JMU offense. He has produced at least 85 yards from scrimmage in 12 of 13 games and produced 223 in the Sun Belt championship game win over Troy. He only grows more effective over time, too: He averages a strong 6.8 yards per touch in the first three quarters and an incredible 9.7 in the fourth. — Connelly

OLB, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 61 tackles, 13 TFL, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The former blue-chipper was a contributor from almost day one at Oregon and has blossomed into almost the perfect outside linebacker. He set career highs in TFLs (13), run stops (14), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two), and when he missed a tackle against Washington in the fourth quarter of Oregon’s 12th game, it was his first official miss all season. — Connelly

CB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 39 tackles, 31 solo, 8 PD
2025 preseason ranking: 82

A freshman All-American at James Madison, Ponds has been a huge part of the Indiana rebuild from Curt Cignetti’s first day in charge. He can line up wide or in the slot, and he’s one of the nation’s surest tacklers at the cornerback position. Don’t even bother targeting him downfield: On passes of 10 or more air yards, he has given up only a 28% completion rate. — Connelly

WR, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 73 rec, 744 yards, 5 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

As an extension of the run game, Branch catches most of his passes near the line of scrimmage but averages 8.1 yards after catch. After a reasonably slow start, Branch averaged 6.6 catches and 64.7 yards over his past seven games. He also might be the scariest return man in the CFP. — Connelly

WR, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 58 rec, 804 yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Cooper combined with Elijah Sarratt to provide the perfect 1-2 punch for Fernando Mendoza. He enjoyed two perfect games this season (he caught a combined 18 of 18 passes for 322 yards against Indiana State and Michigan State), and with Sarratt hurt, he made the catch of the year against Penn State with a toe-tapping touchdown with 41 seconds left. — Connelly

DE, Miami, senior
2025 notable stats: 52 tackles, 12 TFL, 7 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR

A sixth-year senior and West Virginia transfer, Mesidor has been a fantastic battery mate for Rueben Bain Jr., either tying or setting career highs this season in TFLs (12), run stops (10), sacks (seven), pressures (42) and pressure rate (13.9%). Following Miami’s back-to-back losses, he raised his game down the stretch, helping to assure the Hurricanes’ rebounded in the CFP rankings. — Connelly

DE, Oklahoma, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 43 tackles, 12 TFL, 6 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Oklahoma lost R Mason Thomas to injury in November, and Wein, who entered the season with only one career tackle, made sure it didn’t matter in the slightest. He recorded at least one TFL in 10 of 12 games, and he made 2.5 sacks with seven pressures in late wins over Alabama and Missouri. Thomas’ return to the lineup could take the focus off of him and also make him more effective. — Connelly

S, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 31 solo tackles, 2 INT, 4 PD
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After serving his time at Purdue, Thieneman moved to Eugene and quickly thrived as a patrolman in the back. Oregon ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback (4.7) and ninth in interception rate (4.0%), and Thieneman’s fingerprints are all over that. His overtime interception against Penn State both clinched a CFP berth for the Ducks (in retrospect) and sent the Nittany Lions spiraling. — Connelly

S, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 67 tackles, 6 INT, 2.5 TFL
2025 preseason ranking: NR

A former junior college player who sued for an extra year of eligibility, Moore transferred back to Indiana after a year at Ole Miss, and he has become a wonderfully effective ball hawk for a defense that is tied for sixth nationally with 25 takeaways. An active defensive front creates pressure and then Moore swoops in to pounce on a quarterback’s mistakes. — Connelly

QB, Ole Miss, senior
2025 notable stats: 3,016 yards, 19 total TDs, 86.0 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR

A year ago, Chambliss was leading Ferris State to the Division II title. Now he’s leading Ole Miss into its first CFP. Austin Simmons began the season as the Rebels’ starter but sustained an early injury. Chambliss made the most of his 10 starts, finishing fifth in Total QBR and eighth in the Heisman voting. He’s a passer first, but he will torch you with his legs if you let him. — Connelly

WR, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 48 rec, 838 yards, 9 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 67

The best No. 3 receiver in the country last season, Tate has become maybe the best No. 2 in 2025. He has topped 100 yards four times this season — including a 183-yard effort against Minnesota — and he has caught at least one touchdown pass in eight of the 10 games he has played. Tate sat out three games in November but returned to catch the clinching 50-yard TD against Michigan. — Connelly

DT, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 11 solo tackles, 8.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Part of Texas Tech’s lucrative defensive transfer class, Hunter arrived from UCF and immediately had an impact on the Red Raiders’ front. Hunter earned third-team AP All-America honors and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection after fortifying the interior line with 34 tackles. The 6-foot-4, 330-pound Hunter regularly commanded double-teams and helped Texas Tech become the nation’s best against the run. — Rittenberg

QB, Georgia, redshirt junior
2025 notable stats: 2,691 yards, 31 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Stockton waited his turn to become Georgia’s starter as a fourth-year junior and was certainly up for the challenge, leading the Bulldogs to another SEC title with a nine-game win streak since an early loss to Alabama. He currently ranks No. 6 nationally in QBR (85.8) and offered plenty of proof in tough tests against Ole Miss, Texas and Tennessee that he’s capable of taking his team on another title run. — Olson

TE, Oregon, junior
2025 notable stats: 40 rec, 490 yards, 8 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

In a season in which injuries hit Oregon’s wide receiver room especially hard, Sadiq emerged as a capable target. He earned second-team AP All-America honors and was named the Big Ten’s Tight End of the Year after recording eight touchdown catches — most among FBS tight ends — and a team-high 40 receptions. Despite sitting out some time because of injury, Sadiq recorded 490 receiving yards and became the first Oregon tight end to be a finalist for the Mackey Award. — Rittenberg

WR, Indiana, senior
2025 notable stats: 51 rec, 687 yards, 12 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 78

One of coach Curt Cignetti’s plug-and-play transfers from James Madison, Sarratt followed a third-team All-Big Ten season in 2024 with a second-team selection this fall, despite sitting out some time because of a hamstring injury. Sarratt recorded touchdown catches in all but two games he played and had three multitouchdown performances and four with seven or more receptions. Sarratt has 186 receptions for 2,835 yards and 28 touchdowns during the past three seasons. — Rittenberg

LB, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT
2024 preseason ranking: 62

The 6-foot-5, 243-pound playmaker has performed at an All-America level for the Buckeyes and should be a first-round NFL draft pick next spring after shining under new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. He’s the leading tackler on the No. 1 defense in the country, had a season-high 12 stops in the Big Ten title game and ranks fourth among all starting linebackers in Pro Football Focus grading this season. — Olson

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0:33

Alabama comes away with a big-time INT in the 3rd quarter

Bray Hubbard hauls in the tipped ball for a big-time Crimson Tide interception.

S, Alabama, junior
2025 notable stats: 4 INT, 6 PBU, 3 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After emerging as a starter in 2024 and leading the team with three interceptions, Hubbard solidified himself as one of the nation’s best defensive backs this season. The junior safety from Mississippi earned first-team All-America honors and again led Alabama with four interceptions, while contributing 66 tackles and a team-high six pass breakups. Hubbard had an interception and a forced fumble in Alabama’s narrow win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. — Rittenberg

OT, Miami, junior
2025 notable stat: Nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8)
2025 preseason ranking: 24

A mainstay at right tackle for the past three seasons, Mauigoa earned first-team AP All-America honors this fall after anchoring one of the nation’s top offensive lines. Miami ranks fifth nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed (3.5 per game) and tied for eighth in fewest sacks allowed (.92 per game), while averaging 37.8 points during the final four regular-season games. He won the ACC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy and earned the nation’s third-highest pass-blocking grade (88.8) from Pro Football Focus. — Rittenberg

QB, Oregon, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 2,733 yards, 24 TDs, 77.8 QBR
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After starting five games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, Moore took the rare step of transferring to a place where he knew playing time would be limited. He used the gap year in 2024 to refocus and blossomed this fall for the Ducks, completing 72.5% of his pass attempts with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Moore helped rally Oregon to road wins against Penn State and Iowa and had 849 passing yards in his final three regular-season games that has him projected as possibly the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. — Rittenberg

OT, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stat: No. 2 graded offensive lineman in the Power 4
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The Hoosiers prioritized upgrading their offensive line after 2024 and made several key additions through the portal. Their best blocker though turned out to be a holdover in Smith, who started the previous two seasons for the Hoosiers at left tackle. He protected the blind side of Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and became the first Indiana player named Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year. Smith also is the first IU tackle to earn first-team All-Big Ten honors since Charley Peal in 1977. — Rittenberg

LB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 6.5 sacks, 10 TFL, 62 total tackles
2025 preseason ranking: NR

A new set of stars emerged to lead the nation’s No. 1 defense this fall, and Reese was undeniably front and center. He has thrived under new coordinator Matt Patricia, recording 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss from the edge position and finished second on the squad with 62 total tackles. One of three Buckeyes defenders named a first-team AP All-American, Reese was named Big Ten’s Linebacker of the Year and recorded a sack in six of Ohio State’s first eight games of the season. — Rittenberg

WR, Miami, freshman
2025 notable stats: 84 rec, 970 yards, 7 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The Miami native dazzled in his home area during his freshman year at the U, recording twice as many receptions than any other Hurricanes player this season, while leading the ACC in touchdowns and ranking fourth in the league in receiving yards, which marked a Miami freshman record. Toney had four 100-yard receiving performances, including in each of his final two regular-season games. A second-team AP All-America selection, Toney earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors after leading FBS freshmen in receptions. — Rittenberg

G, Oregon, senior
2025 notable stat: 87.3 pass-blocking grade
2025 preseason ranking: NR

A key member of an Oregon offensive front reshaped through the transfer portal, Pregnon earned first-team AP All-America honors during his first season with the Ducks. After starting two seasons for USC, Pregnon helped protect quarterback Dante Moore, giving up no sacks and only three pressures on 335 pass-blocking opportunities. Oregon enters the CFP ranked sixth in fewest tackles for loss allowed. — Rittenberg

DL, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 28 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Running against Ohio State is no easy task, thanks in large part to the work of McDonald around the line of scrimmage. McDonald racked up 16 run stuffs this season — stops on runs at or behind the line — while making 60 total tackles on plays that gained an average of just 1.1 yards. McDonald missed only two tackles all season, making him one of the most reliable defenders on the D-line in the country. — Hale

RB, Ole Miss, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 258 carries, 20 TDs, 1,279 yards
2025 preseason ranking: NR

After playing sparingly for Missouri in 2024, Lacy became one of the top impact transfers in the country under coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. He set an Ole Miss single-season record with 20 rushing touchdowns and became the school’s first finalist for the Doak Walker Award. Lacy leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and is fourth nationally in points per game. According to Pro Football Focus, he is second nationally in missed tackles forced (84) and fourth in yards after contact (809). Lacy had at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game. — Rittenberg

DL, Ohio State, senior
2025 notable stats: 36 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

Curry was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season, racking up 11 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries and 40 pressures. Curry’s versatility allowed him to create havoc on the edge and inside throughout the season, and his ability to move in space and play physical helped him rack up 62 total tackles, most in the Big Ten by a defensive lineman. — Hale

WR, Texas A&M, junior
2025 notable stats: 886 yards, 9 TDs, 12 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

No incoming transfer this season has affected two phases of the game as much as Concepcion, who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile player. The NC State transfer earned first-team All-SEC honors at wide receiver, return specialist and all-purpose player, after leading the league with nine receiving touchdowns and 480 all-purpose yards. He became the first A&M player in the modern era to score on a reception, a rush and a punt return in the same year. Concepcion had 57 receptions for 886 yards. — Hale

DL, Miami, junior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 33

The numbers don’t exactly scream superstar. Bain had 4.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and 37 total tackles. But ask any QB or offensive coordinator who faced Miami this season who the best player on the field was, and the answer probably would be unanimous. Bain’s motor is unrivaled, and the attention he commands at the line of scrimmage opens up lanes for others on Miami’s front. For the season, Bain racked up 48 pressures — tops in the ACC — and 18 stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. — Hale

LB, Georgia, junior
2025 notable stats: 45 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 38

Perhaps the most fierce player on the Dawgs’ defense, Allen is a machine in the middle for Georgia, racking up 85 total tackles, including eight for a loss. He added four PBUs, two QB hurries, two forced fumbles and contested seven of 16 targets while in coverage. — Hale

CB, Ohio State, junior
2025 notable stats: 18 solo tackles, 1 INT
2025 preseason ranking: 3

Downs picked off two passes this season, which is far more impressive than it sounds, because despite playing 322 snaps in coverage, opposing QBs targeted him only 20 times. Downs gave up only nine catches all season as the primary defender, accounting for only 72 yards and no touchdowns. The longest completion he gave up was 17 yards. A 14-yard completion in the second quarter of the Big Ten title game was the first one he’d given up in nearly two months. There is not a more lockdown corner in the country than Downs. — Hale

DL, Texas A&M, senior
2025 notable stats: 19 solo tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 FF
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The problem, according to Miami coach Mario Cristobal, with trying to control Texas A&M’s pass rush is that the Aggies so rarely need to bring extra help. The front four dominate on their own. There’s plenty of praise to go around, of course, but the leader of that group is Howell, who led the SEC with 11.5 sacks and finished fourth with 14 tackles for loss. Howell added five QB hurries, six PBUs and a forced fumble for good measure. If the Aggies are going to make a deep run, it probably will be because of the chaos created up front by Howell & Co. — Hale

QB, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 3,323 passing yards, 31 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

When Will Howard left after winning a national championship last season, Ohio State could’ve chased another veteran in the portal. Instead, the Buckeyes handed the keys to the best roster in college football to a player with no real previous experience. Sayin didn’t flinch. From beating Texas in Week 1 to blossoming into a Heisman finalist by year’s end, Sayin never appeared overwhelmed by the moment, racking up an eye-popping stat line that included 31 touchdown passes, only six interceptions and a nearly 79% completion percentage. Sayin’s 182.2 passer rating was the best in the country, and if he makes a similar leap in the playoff as Howard did last year — there might be no stopping Ohio State from a repeat. — Hale

OLB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 27 solo tackles, 13.5 sacks, 3 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 57

One of the best pash rushers in the country, Bailey led all Power 4 players in sacks with 13.5. He finished the regular season with 17.5 tackles for loss, 13 QB hurries, 65 pressures, a ridiculous 19.9% pressure rate and three forced fumbles. The Red Raiders’ defensive front was its best weapon, and no one on that D-line created more havoc in 2025 than Bailey. — Hale

LB, Texas Tech, senior
2025 notable stats: 117 tackles, 61 solo, 7 FF
2025 preseason ranking: 92

Arguably the best defensive player in the country in 2025, Rodriguez dominated in all areas for Texas Tech this season. He racked up 117 tackles, second most in the Big 12. He picked off four passes, had 11 tackles for loss, broke up six passes and forced seven fumbles. And as if it wasn’t enough to dominate on defense, Rodriguez even got into the action on offense, rushing twice and scoring both times. — Hale

WR, Ohio State, sophomore
2025 notable stats: 1,086 rec yards, 11 TDs
2025 preseason ranking: 1

If we’re ranking based on talent alone, there’s a good argument that no player comes close to matching Smith’s ability. Smith caught 80 balls for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore, but that doesn’t really tell the story. It’s how he has done it. Smith commands double-teams constantly, draws the attention of everyone’s best corner, and has every defensive coordinator he faces scheming to slow him down. And none of it has mattered. Smith continues to produce big play after big play, opening up options for Ohio State’s offense all over the field. — Hale

QB, Indiana, junior
2025 notable stats: 2,980 passing yards, 39 total TDs
2025 preseason ranking: NR

The Heisman Trophy winner has to top the list. Mendoza was a force for Indiana, as the Hoosiers took the next step from playoff Cinderella in 2024 to the No. 1 team in the country entering the 2025 postseason. Mendoza’s final numbers tell the story: more than 3,200 total yards, 39 touchdowns and only six interceptions for the last undefeated team in the country. — Hale

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MLB free agency reset: Predictions for the remaining top 10 free agents

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2 hours ago

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December 17, 2025

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MLB free agency reset: Predictions for the remaining top 10 free agents

  • David SchoenfieldDec 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
    • Former deputy editor of Page 2
    • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

We’ve started to see some top free agents come off the board as the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber back to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays. The closer market also moved quickly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.

That still leaves seven of the top 10 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 ranking unsigned. Let’s look at that group and see where things stand. The team at the center of everything right now is the Mets: They have needs to fill and money to spend and will be a key player in how the rest of this offseason plays out.

We’ll list Kiley’s contract projections for each player — including updated projections for the four remaining big free agent hitters, based on how the deals for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, of course, we’ll make some predictions that will certainly be correct.

2025 free agent ranking: 1

Initial projection: 11 years, $418 million
New projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)

Team that might be out: Phillies. The Phillies crossed off their top agenda item, re-signing Schwarber, and then filled a hole in the outfield with a one-year deal for Adolis Garcia. At the Garcia press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies’ outfield is “pretty well set,” with Brandon Marsh in left field (at least against right-handed pitching) and rookie Justin Crawford getting the chance to win the job in center field.

What about the Mets? The Mets quickly replaced Alonso with Jorge Polanco, but they have holes in the outfield, where Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and prospect Carson Benge are the current candidates to suit up alongside Juan Soto. The payroll is some $42 million below where it was in 2025, via Roster Resource at FanGraphs, but the Mets still need a front-line starting pitcher and bullpen depth.

Does the reluctance to give Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the younger Tucker? Not necessarily, but it’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is operating with a disciplined mission this offseason, focusing on upgrading the team’s defense and not getting trapped into longer deals that can quickly go awry. Plus, with Soto entering the second year of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to give another long-term deal to an outfielder? Probably not.

What about the Dodgers? The Dodgers could shift Teoscar Hernandez to left field and sign Tucker to play right field, especially with the payroll about $43 million below where it was in 2025. But do the Dodgers believe that much in Tucker to give him a megadeal? At some point, they do need to weave some younger position players into the lineup — and their top prospects are all outfielders: Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope. Tucker on a shorter deal with a higher AAV might work if a longer one isn’t out there for him.

Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Series appearance so far, signing starters Cease and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, as well as reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer in the final year of his deal, Tucker can be viewed as Springer’s replacement in the outfield (with Anthony Santander as the DH). The Jays also have a lot of other money coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Including Springer, that’s $78 million, so they can absorb the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.

2025 free agent ranking: 2

Initial projection: 6 years, $168 million

Team that might be out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his player option and then the Jays signing Cease and Ponce, the rotation looks settled for 2026.

What about the Mets? Last offseason, Stearns tried the second-tier route to fix the rotation, signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, Clay Holmes for three years and $38 million, and Frankie Montas for two years and $34 million. It didn’t exactly work. Holmes was fine, but Manaea had a 5.64 ERA in 12 starts while Montas made just seven starts and the Mets released him after the season. Given that Mets starters ranked 27th in the majors, let’s see if Stearns swims in deeper waters this time and signs the top starter out there, one who has averaged 192 innings the past four seasons. But does Stearns have the appetite to sign a pitcher for longer than three years? Reports seem to suggest the answer to that question is no — and that a trade is more likely.

What about the Orioles? Signing Alonso shouldn’t prevent the Orioles from going after one of the top remaining starting pitchers. Indeed, after signing Alonso and trading for Taylor Ward (a free agent after 2026) the urgency to win now has only increased. The payroll is $22 million below 2025’s $160 million. Is that enough room to sign Valdez? A more likely option might be a starter just outside the top 10 free agents, such as Ranger Suarez or Michael King.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs need a top-of-the-rotation starter, a guy they feel more confident handing the ball to in a playoff game than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga. They also have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million below last season’s total.

2025 free agent ranking: 3

Initial projection: 6 years, $165 million
New projection: 6 years, $180 million

Team that might be out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds were ever in on Bellinger, but they were in on Schwarber. Even though Bellinger fits a need in the outfield, the Reds’ interest in Schwarber was apparently only due to ownership’s belief the Ohio native would help sell tickets.

What about the New York Yankees? It has been a quiet offseason so far for the Yankees, but general manager Brian Cashman reiterated at the winter meetings that the Yankees still want Bellinger back after a stellar 5.1-WAR season in the Bronx. While they don’t necessarily want to give up on Jasson Dominguez, there is still plenty of room for Bellinger, especially since he can play center — which allows New York to hedge against Trent Grisham regressing from his surprising 2025 numbers. Bellinger could also fill in at first base or play right field when Aaron Judge needs a DH day.

Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing defense — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger fits in that regard, especially in left field, where he would be a plus defender, and he can handle center as well. The Dodgers could be in the mix here as well, but that outfield hole for the Mets is glaring. If they aren’t going to sign Tucker and if they’re not willing to give a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the best fit for them at the top of the market.

Would the Mets give Bellinger a bigger contract than the one Alonso received from the Orioles? Bellinger is only a year younger, but over the past three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR while Alonso averaged 3.1

2025 free agent ranking: 4

Initial projection: 5 years, $160 million
New projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million

Team that might be out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the perfect match last offseason when Bregman was a free agent, but Buster Olney recently reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” last year, making it less likely for a match this time around.

What about the Mets? This was a popular prediction at the outset of free agency, but the Mets now seem committed to Brett Baty at third base. Bregman’s age — he’s entering his age-32 season — also makes him a risky bet, and Stearns is clearly anti-risk.

What about the Cubs? The Cubs went hard after Bregman last season and there have been reports of interest once again, even though Matt Shaw played much better in the second half of his rookie season (.258/.317/.522).

Prediction: Boston Red Sox. In the end, a return to Boston still makes the most sense. The Red Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, and they need Bregman’s right-handed bat to help balance out the lefty-heavy lineup.

2025 free agent ranking: 5

Initial projection: 6 years, $135 million

Team that might be out: Dodgers. After initially declaring he wants to take the Dodgers down, Imai has doubled down on his desire to beat the Dodgers — not join them. “With the number of pitchers they already have, they don’t need me,” he told a Japanese news outlet. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow told MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he spoke with Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers’ exec told him, “You’re not going anywhere.” Seems like the Dodgers will stick with their rotation.

What about the Mets? If the Dodgers are out, Imai landing with a big-market East Coast team certainly feels like a strong possibility. But, there’s still the issue of whether Stearns will give a pitcher a long-term deal — and Imai is expected to get five or six years.

What about the Yankees? Imai has until Jan. 2 to sign, so this could happen any day. The rotation isn’t really a need for the Yankees — they finished fourth in rotation ERA in 2025 without Gerrit Cole, who should be back at some point in the first half of the 2026 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2025. But they are undoubtedly looking at all of the Dodgers’ Japanese starters with envy, plus there are rumors of the Yankees going after a starting pitcher (such as a return engagement with King).

Prediction: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are going to be in the mix for several of these top guys — Tucker, Bellinger and the pitchers. Heck, if Imai wants to beat the Dodgers, how about joining a team where he can face them four or five times a season? The Giants’ payroll is only $8 million under 2025’s total, but that 2025 figure was about $30 million below 2024. They have room to pay, they need a starting pitcher and Robbie Ray is a free agent after 2026.

2025 free agent ranking: 7

Initial projection: 5 years, $130 million
New projection: 5 years, $150 million

Team that might be out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, where he played 24 games at the end of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They have Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility role.

What about the Mets? Bichette’s age — he’s entering his age-28 season — makes him the kind of free agent that might be more attractive to Stearns, although the Mets have their double-play combo set with Francisco Lindor and Semien. But what about Bichette moving to third? His range at shortstop is subpar anyway, and that was before the knee injury in September. Executives love his high-contact rate that should translate well to October baseball — and he would make for a terrific No. 3 hitter behind Lindor and Soto. Baty would then become trade bait for pitching or outfield help. Don’t sleep on this one.

What about the Blue Jays? A return certainly fits, with Andres Gimenez taking over at shortstop and Bichette sliding to second base on a permanent basis. But do the Jays have an appetite to sign both Tucker and Bichette? They do also have other infield options, with Addison Barger playing third base after splitting time between third and right field in 2025 and Ernie Clement playing second on a full-time basis.

Prediction: Yankees. We’re trying to read the tea leaves here and those Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade rumors keep popping up. Perhaps the Yankees are trying to clear space for a new infielder? Bichette could either provide another option at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled at the plate in 2025 and saw his defense regress as well, or play second, with Jose Caballero still around to back up both positions.

2025 free agent ranking: 10

Initial projection: 5 years, $80 million

Team that might be out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets were linked early on, but given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — where many scouts believe Murakami is best suited to play — there doesn’t seem to be a clear fit, unless the Mets turn him into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos is still around for that role or could share it with Polanco).

What about the Red Sox? The Red Sox have obviously been on the prowl for a slugger and Murakami’s power potential is huge — although it will come with a lot of swing-and-miss. If the Red Sox are tired of Triston Casas‘ continued injury issues, Murakami is a fit at first base. His age — he turns 26 in February — also makes him attractive, despite the strikeout risk.

What about the Seattle Mariners? At the winter meetings, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said the Mariners were still interested in adding one more hitter. That obviously won’t be re-signing Polanco. They’ve been mentioned in trade rumors for Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. But what about keeping their prospects and just signing Murakami to play third base and DH? The Mariners might not want to add another strikeout-prone hitter, but if the bidding for Murakami does fall below nine figures, maybe they get in the mix.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to sign is Dec. 22, so we’re running out of time. His market still seems wide open. The Phillies could also be an interesting fit, or maybe the Los Angeles Angels want to do something. Indeed, if any of these top 10 free agents land in a surprising spot, Murakami might be the one. The White Sox have money to spend — their current estimated payroll is just $68 million and that includes $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who might be traded. They have a desperate need for power and Murakami fits at either third or first, depending on where Miguel Vargas ends up. This would be a nice roll of the dice for a White Sox team that looks to be on the rise.

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How Wallstedt, Bussi, five other NHL goalies leveled up their play this season

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3 hours ago

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December 17, 2025

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How Wallstedt, Bussi, five other NHL goalies leveled up their play this season

  • Kristen ShiltonDec 17, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.

There’s a new sheriff in the State of Hockey. And a Swedish one, at that. His name? Jesper Wallstedt.

But you can call him The Wall of St. Paul. His teammates do. It’s a nickname befitting of a Minnesota Wild goaltender who’s rewriting the franchise’s rookie record books as one of the league’s breakout stars.

The Wild even made T-shirts to show their support. Wallstedt just wasn’t sure whether to join in on the fun or not.

“I have no idea where it came from,” Wallstedt said last month after several Minnesota players began wearing the shirts. “I got in here and I’m like, ‘Am I supposed to wear it, or is that kind of weird wearing your own shirt?’ So, I ended up not wearing it.”

Wallstedt’s play has been advertisement enough. He’s at the top of a goaltending wave bringing several new freshmen to light in the season’s first half, along with resurgent campaigns from some familiar faces.

It’s almost a mystery how these things work. Goaltending is a complicated job, after all. Goalies have to account for hundreds of different skaters on the attack, all of whom have studied that player in the crease in search of ways to beat him.

That’s pressure enough — and granted, goaltenders are a particular breed unto themselves and often boast of unique journeys to their jobs in the league.

“[Part of] what you’re seeing now is that it takes a good three to five years of development for goalies,” former NHL goaltender Martin Biron said of this current freshman class. “And now with the amount of goalies being used during the season you see that there is some good quality from those drafts from 2019 to 2021.”

It’s part of what makes the position so fascinating, particularly this season where we’ve seen everything from the upstarts shining (Devin Cooley has been a bright spot for Calgary) to veteran No. 1s having career years (stick taps to Logan Thompson). There have been just nine rookie goalies to appear in at least 41 games of a full season for their teams since 2019-20; there could be half that many alone this season.

We may never know why. But here is a non-comprehensive look at the unexpected who’s who of the goaltending world.

9-1-2 | 1.95 GAA | .937 SV%

Wallstedt’s signature celebration is to pretend to shoot an arrow. It could just as easily be a dagger — bursting the bubble of an opponent trying to score.

Not everyone approves of Wallstedt’s enthusiastic response to a win. But the 23-year-old is having a moment, and won’t be changing things up anytime soon.

Wallstedt turned heads from the get-go this season after having just five career NHL starts to his credit prior to 2025-26, amounting to a 2-3-0 mark with .877 SV% and 3.44 GAA. If anything, Wallstedt was tabbed as a capable backup partner for Filip Gustavsson; instead, Wallstedt has become his own one-man show.

There was always the potential for Wallstedt to be a burgeoning star in the league. He was a top youth goalie in Sweden, appearing on national teams and debuting with the SHL’s Lulea HF at just 17 years old. Minnesota hopped past Edmonton in the 2021 draft to select Wallstedt, making him the first Swedish goalie to be drafted in the first round. That alone was an accomplishment. But coming to North America wouldn’t be without difficulties.

Wallstedt’s transition from Sweden to the Wild’s American Hockey League affiliate in Iowa was fine at first. He produced a .908 SV% his first season there, and improved to .910 the one after that. He was an AHL All-Star selection. By the 2024-25 season, Minnesota had Marc-Andre Fleury and Gustavsson sharing the net.

There was no room for Wallstedt as third wheel and he went back to the AHL — where it wasn’t pretty. Wallstedt went 9-14-4 that season, with an .879 SV%. Iowa wasn’t a strong team overall but Wallstedt’s performance — including his two NHL appearances that were both losses and came with an .843 SV% — was concerning, and rightly raised questions about his NHL-readiness.

Minnesota waived Fleury off into retirement over the summer, and that left an opening for Wallstedt to step into a tandem with Gustavsson. Regardless of his past, Wallstedt was ready to soar. He went 8-0-2 through his first 10 games, while recording four shutouts to give him five in 15 career games played. That’s the second-fewest starts required to reach that mark since Frank Brimsek in 1938 (“Mr. Zero” required only nine games). His road shutout streak — going through Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver — was halted at 116:09. That was the third-longest streak of its kind in franchise history, and Wallstedt was just the fifth rookie goalie since 1929-30 to do it.

The numbers show how Wallstedt persevered to become this season’s goalie sensation. And Minnesota is hoping he’s just getting started. The Wild are third in the Central Division and have appeared increasingly confident right along with their goaltender. If Wallstedt continues to shine, there’s no telling how far he can help carry the Wild this season.

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Jesper Wallstedt makes big-time save vs. Jets

Jesper Wallstedt makes beautiful save

10-1-0 | 2.07 GAA | .910 SV%

In early October, Bussi was facing an uncertain future. Little did he know it would include etching his name in the NHL record books.

At the time, Bussi had been placed on waivers by the Florida Panthers after signing a one-way, two-year contract with the reigning Stanley Cup champions in July. If he cleared, Bussi could join the Panthers’ AHL affiliate. Instead, the Carolina Hurricanes swooped in to claim Bussi when Pyotr Kochetkov was hurt to start the season. That has become a defining moment for Bussi and Carolina. He has outperformed any expectation the Hurricanes could have had for him, including becoming the fastest goalie to earn 10 wins in NHL history.

That feat is impressive on its own. It’s even more impressive considering Bussi came to Carolina with zero NHL experience — but he is not technically a rookie. In order to qualify for freshman status with the league, players have to be under 26 years old on Sept. 15 of a season. Bussi turned 27 in June. Age is just a number, though, and we are not beholden to such parameters here, so Bussi gets grouped into the rookie class. But the first-year netminder hasn’t played like a newbie at all.

The Sound Beach, New York, native began as a backup to veteran Frederik Andersen, making his NHL debut on Oct. 14 in a 5-1 rout of San Jose. He was so good behind Andersen that Carolina kept him in the fold even after Kochetkov returned in early November. Kochetkov would have a flare-up of the same injury weeks later, and that’s when Bussi got rolling, passing Andersen as coach Rod Brind’Amour’s go-to in net while reeling off a 10-1-0 to start his pro career, with a .910 SV% and 2.07 GAA. He’s just the fifth NHL goalie to win nine of his first 10 appearances.

Carolina couldn’t have anticipated leaning on Bussi like it has. But Andersen — ironically one of the other five goalies that also recorded nine wins in his first 10 career games — has struggled this season (going 5-7-2 with an .875 SV%) and if not for Bussi, Carolina could have taken a tumble while Kochetkov recovers.

If he keeps that up, time will tell what the Hurricanes goalie rotation looks like when all are healthy — and how many wins Bussi can string together as this season’s Cinderella story.

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Brandon Bussi robs Predators with save

Brandon Bussi robs Predators with save

2-3-3 | 2.72 GAA | .923 SV%

Hildeby can’t help but take over a room.

His 6-foot-7 hulking frame seems in direct contradiction to his quiet, unassuming personality. But the man affectionately known as “Hildebeast” didn’t earn the moniker by running his mouth. He has done it by using that big body to make the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ net look small — and hold some of the league’s best scorers at bay.

The Leafs have been in a goaltending bind throughout the season. Would-be No. 1 Anthony Stolarz was average out of the gate and then got hurt; he hasn’t suited up since Nov. 11 while nursing an upper-body injury. Joseph Woll took over from there after returning from a personal leave of absence, and Hildeby — a fourth-round draft choice by the Leafs in 2022 with just six NHL games to his credit — tagged in on clean-up duty and a few back-to-backs.

It was Toronto’s alarming defensive issues — they were second in shots against per game and fourth in goals against per game through the end of November — that stood out most, wasting quality starts from Hildeby, who was 1-2-1 with a .914 SV% supporting Woll.

When Woll also hit the sideline with a lower-body injury last week, Toronto had no choice but to put their full faith in Hildeby. That has paid off.

He made nine saves in relief of Woll to preserve a 5-1 victory for the Leafs over Carolina, and was their No. 1 from there: Hildeby backstopped Toronto to a frustrating 2-1 shootout loss to Montreal, blanked the Tampa Bay Lightning in a hard-fought 2-0 victory, stood on his head to get the Leafs a point in their 3-2 overtime loss to San Jose and was hung out to dry in Edmonton’s 6-3 rout of Toronto.

Hildeby deserved better than a 1-1-2 record in those starts, given his .934 SV% and 2.34 GAA. It’s a small sample size, but Hildeby ranks second in save percentage among goalies with at least 10 starts (.923).

More than that, he has been consistently good for a club that has only recently showed defensive improvements — although the Leafs have begun to backslide in that department again.

Toronto’s glaring issue now is an inability to stay healthy in net, or on the back end. After Hildeby, there’s just Artur Akhtyamov, who made his NHL debut in relief of Hildeby during last week’s tilt against the Oilers. There’s no telling yet when Stolarz will return, with coach Craig Berube saying on this week he’s not progressing as the team had hoped. Woll made his return on Tuesday, but he has a concerning injury history. Meanwhile, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are both still out from the blue-line group.

Hildeby needs a reliable partner, too. But even though Woll is ready, it’ll be tough for coach Craig Berube to take the reins from Hildeby entirely given how he has exceeded expectations.

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Dennis Hildeby makes big-time save vs. Sharks

Dennis Hildeby robs Sharks with save

11-8-1 | 3.24 GAA | .902 SV%

Askarov might be playing in his first full NHL season, but you’d be forgiven for mistaking him for a veteran.

San Jose’s rookie netminder is carrying a heavy load for the surprising Sharks, and it has made up for enough defensive deficiencies in front of him to have San Jose in the playoff mix. Askarov put a slow start behind him to produce a 9-4-0 run with a .928 SV% and 2.20 GAA while being under siege from the opposition. During that stretch, San Jose has allowed among the most high-danger chances and the second-most shots on net, leading Askarov to average nearly 30 saves per game compared to the league average of 24.

San Jose has continued to be leaky defensively and now pace the league in shots against, and Askarov hasn’t been perfect — he was pulled in a game this month after allowing four goals on 12 shots to the Washington Capitals — but it’s hard to argue that Askarov hasn’t been a prize for the Sharks overall.

The team is 22nd in offense this season — averaging 2.88 goals per game — and has relied on Macklin Celebrini‘s sensational start (with 47 points through 33 games) and Askarov’s netminding to continue punching above their weight class in the Western Conference. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a 23-year-old goaltender, but Askarov was ready to take on a bigger role in the NHL.

Originally drafted 11th overall by Nashville in 2020, Askarov felt pushed aside when the organization signed Juuse Saros to an eight-year contract extension in 2024 and inked Scott Wedgewood to be his backup. Askarov requested a trade, and the Sharks were all-in. After making 13 starts for San Jose last season, going 4-6-2 with an .896 SV%, Askarov is blossoming at just the right time to give the Sharks some hope for the present and future.

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Yaroslav Askarov makes beautiful save

Yaroslav Askarov makes beautiful save

7-8-5 | 2.75 GAA | .906 SV%

Some great player stories end with a thud or turn out to be a flash in the pan. Greaves has been the opposite for Columbus.

Greaves was recalled from the Blue Jackets’ AHL affiliate late last season to bolster Columbus in the crease for the team’s final (albeit unsuccessful) playoff push.

That failure wasn’t for Greaves’ lack of effort, though. The netminder was 4-1-0 through April, with a .975 SV%. His final NHL stat line for the season: 7-2-2, with a .938 SV% and 1.91 GAA.

Could Greaves maintain those types of figures in the long term? Columbus had to find out.

Greaves came into this current campaign in tandem with veteran Elvis Merzlikins, but quickly established himself as closer to the team’s No. 1. His numbers aren’t dazzling, with a .906 SV% and 2.75 GAA, but dig deeper and it’s clear Greaves is the difference-maker Columbus needs. He ranks eighth overall in goals saved above expectation and 10th in save percentage above expected on high-danger shots, per MoneyPuck.

He can’t do it all, of course. The Blue Jackets haven’t been tight defensively this season, and like Hildeby, Greaves’ record (7-8-5) isn’t exactly indicative of his performance. Columbus is allowing the third-most shots on net (31.3) per game, and the fifth-most goals against (3.47), while sitting 23rd in offense (with 2.88 goals per game).

Greaves gives the Blue Jackets a chance, though, by continuing to provide consistency in the cage. That could keep Columbus on track to work its way back into the playoff race this season — if the rest of the Blue Jackets can start helping their goalie.

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Marchenko puts Columbus ahead in shootout, Greaves finishes with save

Marchenko puts Columbus ahead in shootout, Greaves finishes with save

10-7-5 | 2.52 GAA | .915 SV%

Connor Bedard courts most of the headlines in Chicago. Which is just fine with Knight.

The Blackhawks’ goaltender is happy to cede the spotlight to Bedard while providing the necessary backbone in net to preserve the terrific season Bedard — and the Blackhawks in general — have been able to produce.

Knight was the primary return for Chicago when they flipped Seth Jones to Florida last season. Knight was the Panthers’ 13th overall pick in 2019, a standout at Boston College and, at just 20 years old, earned a 5-1 victory in his NHL debut. He worked from there in tandem with Sergei Bobrovsky but Knight’s relationship with the Panthers eventually came to an end due to a salary cap crunch over the goalie’s $4.5 million cap hit.

Florida’s loss has been Chicago’s gain. Knight arrived to the Blackhawks in March 2024 with a 44-25-7 career record, a .906 SV% and 2.76 GAA. It was an inauspicious finish to that campaign for Knight (5-8-2, .896 SV%), but fortunately for Chicago not a sign of things to come.

The 24-year-old has played some of his best hockey this season, going 10-7-5 with a .915 SV%, 2.52 GAA and two shutouts through his first 21 games. He has taken the brunt of the Blackhawks’ workload in front of backup Arvid Soderblom, and Chicago ranks 17th in goals against per game despite giving up the fifth-most shots against. That speaks to Knight’s impact and the way he has helped the Blackhawks push their way into a Western Conference wild-card spot midway through December.

It’s enough to make you wonder how much Team USA GM Bill Guerin is keeping tabs on Knight as a potential option in the crease at the upcoming Milan-Cortina Olympics.

The only looming question about Knight really is: Can he maintain this level as a No. 1? Knight’s previous career high in starts was 32 in 2021-22 with Florida. The Blackhawks will need more than that from Knight, perhaps working him hard all the way into spring.

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Spencer Knight makes beautiful save

Spencer Knight makes beautiful save

11-5-3 | 2.48 GAA | .908 SV%

Vladar can attest that some lessons must be learned the hard (and sometimes painful) way.

It took him a good five years after being drafted by the Boston Bruins in the third round of the 2015 draft to get a shot in the NHL and longer than that to stay full time. That opportunity came with Calgary in 2021, and after working his way to that pinnacle, Vladar wasn’t about to step aside due to a lingering injury. He just kept playing through a torn labrum in his right hip for years, often to his own detriment.

It wasn’t until April 2024, while still with the Flames, that the 6-foot-5 Vladar finally had surgery and started a six-month recovery process. His only regret is not doing it sooner.

Well, the 28-year-old is making up for lost time.

Vladar had a subpar 2024-25 season in Calgary while finding his footing again, post-procedure. The Prague native was stellar in the spring while representing Czechia at the IIHF World Championships (going 3-0-0 with a .951 SV% and 1.09 GAA) and earned himself a two-year, $6.7 million contract with the Flyers in July.

It was tough for Philadelphia to know exactly what they’d get out of Vladar, especially when he was meant to be supporting Samuel Ersson‘s continued development. But a healthy Vladar seized the moment and has been a steadying presence — at 11-5-3 with a .908 SV% and 2.54 GAA — for a Philadelphia team currently holding an Eastern Conference wild-card spot.

Vladar has been a significant part of that success, producing the best numbers of his career. Tweaks like improved skating have allowed him more control over his big body and that has helped him earn coach Rick Tocchet’s trust.

While Vladar may lament not trusting his own instincts about when to go under the knife, that path brought him to Philadelphia and a second chance to be the player he always aspired to be.

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Dan Vladar robs Golden Knights with save

Dan Vladar robs Golden Knights with save

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