Matthew Berry’s 100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season
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adminAs far as I can tell, there are only two types of people in this world. Those who love the show “Ted Lasso” and those who haven’t seen it yet. I am in the former camp, and my favorite scene is from Season 1 and is known as “the darts scene.”
If you haven’t seen it yet and don’t want to have the scene spoiled for you, skip ahead to the next photo.
In the scene, Ted is challenged to a game of darts by Rupert, the ex-husband of Ted’s boss, Rebecca. Rupert is, to put it kindly, a real jerk, and there are significant emotional stakes up for grabs, especially for Rebecca.
After they agree to play, Rupert pulls out his own — very nice and expensive — set of darts. He’s hustling Ted.
We fast forward to the end of the game, and Rupert makes a particularly nasty comment to Rebecca. Ted asks Rupert to be quiet and then leans over to the bartender to ask what he needs to win.
He is told he needs two triple-20s and a bull’s-eye. Three extremely hard shots. The ex-husband laughs to himself. “Good luck,” he says dismissively.
And it’s at that moment when Ted nods, stands in front of the dartboard and says …
“You know, Rupert, guys have underestimated me my entire life and for years I never understood why. It used to really bother me. But then one day I was driving my little boy to school and I saw a quote by Walt Whitman. It was painted on the wall, and it said, ‘Be curious, not judgmental.’ I like that.”
(Ted throws a triple-20.)
“So I get back in my car and I’m driving to work and all of a sudden it hits me. All them fellas that used to belittle me, not a single one of them was curious. You know, they thought they had everything figured out, so they judged everything and they judged everyone. And I realized that their underestimating me — who I was — had nothing to do with it. Because if they were curious, they would have asked questions. Questions like, ‘Have you played a lot of darts, Ted?'”
(Ted throws another triple-20.)
“To which I would have answered, ‘Yes, sir. Every Sunday afternoon at a sports bar with my father from age 10 until I was 16 when he passed away.'”
(Ted stares at the board for a second.)
“Barbecue sauce.”
(Ted throws a perfect bull’s-eye to win.)
I have to tell you, as a former TV writer, that’s about as good as it gets in terms of writing, acting and directing, and my words don’t give justice to how well Jason Sudeikis plays that. But there are a million articles about how good Ted Lasso is. You didn’t come here for another.
There’s a lot in that speech I would love to unpack, but for this column, I chose that speech because of the Whitman quote.
Fantasy football needs a lot more curious. A lot more questions. Because whether it’s analysts or fantasy players, they are full of judgment. They think they have everything figured out. They think they know which players will do well, which players won’t, which positions to draft when, which NFL coaches are good and which are bad, which fantasy analysts are smart and which ones are morons. They judge everyone and they judge everything.
It’s a good lesson for life and it’s a good lesson for fantasy football. Instead of judging and thinking you know everything, be curious. Ask a question.
I’ll start.
Which of these two quarterbacks do you want in fantasy this year?
Quarterback A: One of the first things that has to concern you is whether Quarterback A will even be on the field. Having missed 18(!) games the past four seasons (nearly 30% of his games), QBA has played all 16 games in a season only once in his NFL career. Given all his missed games, you have to be concerned about his offensive line. Last season, his O-line allowed pressure at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. How bad was it? The line allowed pressure at the third-highest rate when the opponent did NOT blitz. And that’s a problem, because when blitzed, QBA’s off-target percentage was worse than Dwayne Haskins’ and Mitchell Trubisky’s, among others.
QBA’s yards per attempt has gone down three straight seasons, and who wants a dink-and-dunker in fantasy? Get this: 23.3% of his passes last season were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. His team added no significant pass-catchers this offseason, and he just lost the 1,000-yard receiver he had the highest catch rate with. His career is clearly on a downward trend (I mean, his touchdown passes are down a whopping 24% from even just two years ago).
Quarterback B: Meanwhile, Quarterback B has multiple finishes of ninth or better at the position, and he is set up for his best fantasy season ever. Why? He has a new playcaller who with his previous team got 72% of its offensive yards through the air (the sixth-highest rate in the NFL over that stretch). The coach’s offense kept getting better, as last year it had its best season during his tenure in terms of passing yards per game, fastest tempo, TD/INT ratio and fantasy points per red zone attempt.
QBB gives you points with his arm and his legs; he’s coming off a season in which he had the most rushing attempts of his career, doubled his rushing yards and rushing touchdowns from the season before and did that all in one fewer game played. He has been to multiple Pro Bowls, earned multiple NFL Player of the Week awards and is coming off career highs in completion percentage and on-target percentage, a career low in bad-throw percentage and took a big leap forward from 2019 with a higher touchdown percentage and a lower interception percentage.
So, you know everything you need to know, right? You’ve spent this whole preseason studying, mock drafting, reading, listening and watching. So let me ask you again:
Which quarterback do you want?
Understand that every single thing I wrote about each player is 100% true.
I just gave you almost 500 words of detailed research about them. Do you really need more info? You know the right one to pick, don’t you?
The draft clock is winding down. You hear my annoying voice yell at you from the computer screen. “Hurry up! Make a pick!” Gotta make a call. And you know — I mean, you know — which one you want. It’s obvious. Quarterback B, right? The guy with the multiple top-nine finishes and the fantasy-friendly playcaller?
Well, before you answer, you should probably ask me a question.
Like, “Hey, Matthew, what are those guys’ names?”
To which I would answer, “Well, Quarterback B is Jared Goff.”
“Oh, and Quarterback A is named Patrick Mahomes.”
Be curious, not judgmental.
I mean, I was just able to talk down Patrick Mahomes. I did it by using his rookie season, in which he sat for 15 games, and made it seem like he was injury-prone, while also ignoring that the reason he didn’t play all 16 games every season is the Chiefs have usually clinched a bye by Week 16 or 17. I leaned into the Chiefs’ offensive line woes without acknowledging the injuries or opt-outs from last year, or that the team feels it addressed all that during the offseason.
I didn’t mention one reason to throw a lot of short bubble screens is that when you have Tyreek Hill on your team, why not take advantage of the one of the fastest guys in the NFL? I ignored that the reason the Chiefs didn’t make any major offseason moves for a pass-catcher is that they didn’t need to and, I admit, it took me forever to find a good Sammy Watkins stat to make it seem like him leaving the team would be an issue. His 1,000-yard season was in 2015 with the Buffalo Bills, by the way. And finally, I was able to trend Mahomes down by comparing last season’s stats to his ridiculous 50-touchdown 2018 season.
As for Goff, he has, in fact, had two usable fantasy seasons in which he finished in the top nine, but certainly not last season, and there wasn’t a lot else to work with to make Goff sound good. So instead, I went with his new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and used all the ridiculous Justin Herbert stats to make Lynn and Goff sound a lot better. Goff did have four rushing touchdowns last season after getting two the season before. Lamar Jackson he isn’t, but written the right way, he can sound like a dual threat.
My point of making Goff sound great and Mahomes sound washed up is to show you how I can literally make stats say anything I want. I just have to choose the right stats and omit the others for the job. Or ask my friends “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast or Damian Dabrowski — The Stat-a-Pillar from The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+ — to find me the right stat for the job, as I did at various points while writing and researching this column.
You see, there is very little in this world I am actually good at, but one thing I am a world-class master at? Manipulating stats to tell you the story I want you to hear.
As we head into the final 10 or so days of drafts and into the 2021 season, I want you to remember I do that. I do it all the time. Every time, in fact. Podcasts, TV, columns, Twitter … I will give you only some of the story. And anyone who does this for a living or a hobby and is telling you why this guy is awesome and this one is a bum, and why that guy is undervalued and how you need to ignore this other guy, is doing the same thing. It’s all just opinion.
Your job? Watch the games, crunch the numbers, figure out which analysts you trust and whose thinking you respect. And then, most importantly, be curious — not judgmental.
Do it all, and then, at the end of the day, make your own call.
These are 100 facts you need to know. What you do with them is up to you.
1. Over the past three seasons, there are only two quarterbacks with more than 30 games with multiple touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes and … Russell Wilson. They are tied with 34.
2. Wilson is the only QB with at least 30 touchdown passes in each of the past two seasons.
2a. He has done it for four straight seasons.
3. Among QBs over the past four seasons, only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have more rushing yards than Wilson.
4. He has never missed a game in his NFL career.
5. The last season Wilson didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in total points, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow were all starting QBs in the NFL.
6. Over the past four seasons, Wilson is first among QBs in total points and fourth in points per game.
6a. He is being drafted as QB7.
7. In Week 7 of the 2019 season, Ryan Tannehill was named the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. Since that time, he has:
8. The fourth most games with at least 25 fantasy points.
9. The third most passing touchdowns.
10. … and the second most total touchdowns (tied with Josh Allen).
11. Since that time, he is averaging 21.7 points per game.
12. That is 0.6 fewer points per game than Allen and 0.9 fewer points per game than Mahomes.
13. Since becoming the starter, he is the fourth-best QB in fantasy in total points.
14. His team added Julio Jones this offseason.
15. Tannehill is being drafted as QB10.
16. In Week 14 of last season, Jalen Hurts started his first of four straight games as QB for the Philadelphia Eagles.
17. The wide receivers with the most routes run during that four-game stretch were rookie Jalen Reagor, who played his eighth career NFL game in Week 14, and former college quarterback Greg Ward, who in 2019 played wide receiver for the San Antonio Commanders of the now-defunct AAF.
18. It would be the final four games of Doug Pederson’s tenure as head coach of the Eagles.
19. Hurts threw for 919 yards on 133 attempts, ran for 272 yards and scored 10.3 points per game with his legs alone.
20. He averaged 23.0 total points per game.
20a. Last season, 23 points per game would have been QB7.
21. Those numbers prorated over a 16-game season would be 532 pass attempts and 164.8 fantasy points with his legs.
22. Last season, there were only five quarterbacks to throw at least 400 passes and score at least 60 points with their legs.
23. Those five quarterbacks were Allen (QB2), Kyler Murray (QB4), Deshaun Watson (QB5), Wilson (QB6) and Tannehill (QB9).
23a. Hurts is going in the 11th round in ESPN leagues.
24. Fifteen times over the past three seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 35 passes in a game.
25. In those games, he has averaged 313 passing yards and 21.7 fantasy points.
26. That 21.7 mark would have been good enough to be a top-10 QB last season, just 0.8 points lower than QB6, Wilson.
27. Last season, Washington’s starting quarterbacks were current Steelers backup Dwayne Haskins, current Washington backup Kyle Allen and current ESPN analyst Alex Smith.
28. With that trio under center, Washington still attempted 37.6 passes per game, ninth most in the NFL.
29. Last season, Fitzpatrick led all qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage on deep passes.
30. This offseason, Washington added Curtis Samuel (4.31 40 time) and drafted Dyami Brown (4.46) to go along with Terry McLaurin (4.35), Antonio Gibson (4.39) and 6-foot-6, 250-pound Logan Thomas (4.61).
31. Fitzpatrick is going undrafted in more than 80% of ESPN leagues.
32. Last season, seven of the top 10 QBs had at least 15% of their fantasy points come from rushing.
33. In his lone full college season, Trey Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs.
34. Since 2019, the 49ers are tied for third in rushing touchdowns, fifth in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing yards.
35. Over the past three seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo has missed 23 games.
36. Lance’s current ESPN ADP is 157.7 (QB19).
37. Since the beginning of 2019, 31 running backs have at least 300 touches.
38. Of those 31 qualified backs, Christian McCaffrey is third with 1.17 fantasy points per touch.
39. Alvin Kamara is second in fantasy points per touch, at 1.20.
40. And first, with 1.21 fantasy points per touch, is Austin Ekeler.
41. In his nine healthy games last season, Ekeler averaged 18.6 touches per game.
42. Over a 16-game season, that equals out to 297.6 total touches.
43. Last season, Ezekiel Elliott had 296 total touches, fifth most in the NFL.
44. Once he came back from injury last season, from Week 12 on, playing with Justin Herbert, no running back had a higher target share than Ekeler’s 19.9%.
45. Last season, Ekeler scored only three touchdowns.
46. In 2019, he scored 11 touchdowns.
46a. He makes Mike Clay’s list of players expected to score more touchdowns this season.
47. From 2011 to 2019, only three times did a running back have at least three runs of 70-plus yards in one season.
48. Those running backs were Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson, all in 2012.
49. None of them repeated it the next year or ever again.
50. Last season, Miles Sanders had three runs of 70-plus yards.
51. Remove those runs and last season Sanders was 41st among running backs in fantasy points per touch.
52. Sanders has never had a game with more than 20 carries in his two-year career.
53. He did, however, have three games last season with 10 or fewer total touches.
54. To put that another way, Sanders played only 12 games last season. In 25% of them, he had 10 or fewer touches.
55. New Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts from 2018 to ’20.
56. In none of those three seasons did a single RB play more than 50% of the Colts’ snaps.
57. In all three seasons, multiple running backs played at least 30% of the snaps.
58. In all three seasons, a third Colts RB played more than 15% of the team’s snaps.
59. Last season, no running back with at least 50 targets had a lower catch rate than Sanders’ 52.8%.
60. This year, the Las Vegas Raiders signed Kenyan Drake to a lucrative two-year, $14.5 million dollar contract.
61. For his career, in games in which Josh Jacobs has had fewer than 15 touches, he has never had 10 or more fantasy points.
62. For his career, in the 16 games with fewer than 20 touches, Jacobs averages 10.5 fantasy points per game.
62a. Twenty touches a game is … a lot.
63. Last season, 10.5 fantasy points per game was lower than RB31 Rex Burkhead’s 10.8 points per game.
64. Last season, among RBs with 100-plus touches, Jacobs ranked 46th in fantasy points per touch. Forty-sixth.
64a. Same category, same qualifier, RB43 was Kalen Ballage.
64b. RB44 was Brian Hill.
64c. RB45 was Devontae Booker.
64d. Booker, Hill and Ballage are all backups this year for their respective NFL teams.
65. This offseason, the Raiders lost starters Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown from their offensive line.
66. Last season, Jacobs’ yards per carry after contact fell by more than 22%.
67. For his career, he averages 1.8 receptions per game.
68. Over the past five years, the New England Patriots have had the NFL’s second-highest red zone rush rate.
69. Last season, the Patriots led the NFL in red zone rush percentage.
70. Last season, the Patriots had 53 goal-to-go carries.
71. Of those 53 carries, 49 of them went to Cam Newton, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel and Damien Harris.
72. Newton (free agent), Burkhead (Texans) and Michel (Rams) are no longer on the Patriots.
73. Last season, teams that were trailing threw the ball 68% of the time.
74. Most sportsbooks have the over/under for Detroit Lions wins this year between 4.5 and 5 wins.
75. Over the past two years, no running back has caught a higher percentage of his targets than new Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams.
76. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the third-highest RB target share in the NFL.
77. From 2017 to ’20, the Chargers, under head coach Anthony Lynn, had the second-most RB receptions in the NFL.
77a. Lynn is now the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.
78. In his seven games last season with at least 10 touches, Jamaal Williams averaged 13.1 points per game, which would have been RB25 on a points-per-game basis.
79. Last season for the Lions, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson combined for 231 touches.
79a. Neither is on the team this year.
79b. Jamaal Williams is currently being drafted as RB41 on ESPN.
80. Last season, Cooper Kupp averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game and finished as WR30 on a per-game basis.
81. Since 2015, here are some of the rookie receivers who averaged fewer than 13.9 points per game in their first season: Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill.
82. Ja’Marr Chase is being drafted as a borderline top-30 wide receiver on ESPN.
83. In Weeks 1-11 last season, with a healthy Joe Burrow under center, Tyler Boyd was WR14 on a per-game basis.
84. In Weeks 1-11 last season, Ja’Marr Chase, in college, was WR … nothing. He didn’t play football last season.
85. Since the start of 2018, Tyler Boyd is WR18 in total points.
86. Boyd is currently going as WR36 on ESPN, often multiple rounds after Chase.
86a. What are we doing here, people? Seriously.
87. Since 2015, among wide receivers, Brandin Cooks ranks fifth in receiving yards, tied for 11th in receiving scores and eighth in total fantasy points.
88. Since 2015, Cooks has missed a total of three regular-season games.
89. Last season, his first in Houston, Cooks was WR17.
90. Last season, William Fuller V, Randall Cobb, Keke Coutee, Darren Fells, Chad Hansen, Kenny Stills, Steven Mitchell, Kahale Warring and Deandre Carter combined for 254 targets.
90a. None of them are on the Texans’ 53-man roster as of Sept. 1, 2021.
91. Last season, Cooks had 10 games with at least seven targets. In those 10 games, he averaged 19.7 fantasy points.
92. Last season, 19.7 fantasy points per game would have been WR4, just ahead of Calvin Ridley.
93. Cooks is currently going as WR33, in the 10th round, in ESPN leagues.
93a. I mean, honestly people. COME ON.
94. Last season, only three tight ends had more red zone targets than Logan Thomas.
95. Last season, only two tight ends had more games of double-digit fantasy points than Thomas’ 10.
96. Last season, only one tight end (Darren Waller) ran a route on a higher percentage of his team’s dropbacks than Thomas’ 82.2%.
97. And last season, no tight end ran more overall routes than Thomas.
97A. And he did all that with quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith.
98. This offseason, Washington upgraded at quarterback and gave Thomas a three-year, $24 million extension.
99. Last season, Thomas was the third-best TE in fantasy.
100. This year, he is being drafted as TE7, in the eighth round.
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Apr 16, 2025, 03:47 PM ET
MINNEAPOLIS — Veteran umpire Hunter Wendelstedt had to leave the game in Minnesota on Wednesday after he was struck in the face behind first base by a line drive foul ball.
Wendelstedt instantly hit the ground after he took a direct hit from the line smash off the bat of New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor in the seventh inning. Both Taylor and Twins right-hander Louis Varland winced immediately after seeing where the ball hit Wendelstedt, who is in his 28th major league season as an umpire.
The 53-year-old Wendelstedt was down for a minute while being tended to by Twins medical staff and was able to slowly walk off on his own, pressing a towel against the left side of his head. Second base umpire Adam Hamari moved to first on the three-man crew for the remainder of the game.
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Braves’ Strider goes 5 in return; Blue Jays fan 19
Published
5 hours agoon
April 16, 2025By
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Associated Press
Apr 16, 2025, 03:34 PM ET
TORONTO — Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider allowed two runs and five hits in five-plus innings in his return to the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon.
Making his first big league appearance in 376 days because of surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Strider struck out five, walked one and hit a batter in the 3-1 loss. He threw 97 pitches, 58 for strikes.
Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt (2-0) struck out a season-high 10 and allowed three hits — all singles — as Toronto set a single-game, nine-inning record with 19 strikeouts. Bassitt lowered his ERA to 0.77 through four starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two of the five hits off Strider, including an RBI single in the third inning and a solo home run into the second deck on a full-count slider in the sixth. The homer — a 412-foot drive — was Guerrero’s first of the season.
Strider followed that by walking Anthony Santander, and Braves manager Brian Snitker immediately replaced Strider with left-hander Dylan Lee.
Strider struck out Bo Bichette on three pitches to begin the game. His hardest pitch was a 98 mph fastball to Guerrero in the first.
Strider struck out Myles Straw to strand runners at second and third to end the second.
The Braves activated Strider off the injured list Wednesday morning and optioned right-handed reliever Zach Thompson to Triple-A.
Strider struck out 13 in 5⅓ innings in a dominant rehab start at Triple-A last Thursday, allowing one run and three hits. He threw 90 pitches, 62 for strikes and reached 97 mph with his fastball.
The Braves are off to a slow start, and the return of Strider could provide a big lift. He went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 2023, finishing with a major league-best 281 strikeouts in 186⅔ innings and placing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Strider, 26, last appeared in the majors on April 5, 2024, against the Diamondbacks in Atlanta. He made two starts last season before undergoing surgery.
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The complicated life of a modern ace: How Paul Skenes has navigated it all by looking inward
Published
5 hours agoon
April 16, 2025By
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THE WORLD IS loud and fast and demanding, and to combat this, Paul Skenes forages for silence. He relishes the moments where the chaos gives way to blissful nothingness, just him and dead air. Right now, they are fewer and farther between than they’ve ever been in the past decade — a decade spent working toward this moment, when he is arguably the best pitcher in the world and inarguably the most internet-famous, which is the sort of thing that tends to put a damper on his quest for quiet.
“You can’t master the noise until you master the silence,” Skenes says. A coach told him that this offseason, and it spoke to Skenes, whose mastery of his first season in Major League Baseball — and a two-month stretch in which he went from top prospect to All-Star Game starting pitcher — set him on a path that only upped his daily dose of cacophony. He had been enjoying partaking in sound-free workouts, a far cry from the weightlifting sessions in Pittsburgh’s weight room — a petri dish of decibels and testosterone, suffused with grunts and clanks, ringed with TVs whose visual clamor complements the music thumping out of speakers, a lizard-brained heavenscape.
As fast as Skenes throws a baseball — last summer, it was a half-mile per hour faster than any starter in the game’s century-and-a-half-long history — he thinks slowly, methodically. There are things he wants to do — real, substantive things. He seeks silence because in it he finds clarity. About how to extract the very best from his gilded right arm — but also about who he is and who he aspires to be.
“The times that I’ll figure stuff out is when I’m just sitting and not doing anything,” Skenes says. “I’ll figure some stuff out, on the mound or talking to people, but there will be times where I’m just sitting or lying in bed or something like that. Silence. And there’s nothing else to do but think. I wonder — and I’m not comparing myself to him by any stretch — but Newton discovered gravity because he was sitting under a tree and an apple fell. You figure stuff out because you’re sitting in silence. Compartmentalizing stuff, thinking about the game, doing a debrief of myself. That’s how I’ll get pitch grips. Just sitting around and imagining the feel of the baseball and like, oh, I’m going to try that. It works or it doesn’t work. If you do that enough, you’re going to figure stuff out.”
The irony of this exercise is that the more Skenes figures out on the mound, the shriller his world will get. As Skenes embarks on his first full season in MLB, he’s learning what comes with the commodification of an athlete. Alongside the demand for peak performance come requests for his time and his autograph, pictures taken by gawking fans and GQ photographers. He is pitcher and pitchman. His teammates sometimes wonder whether it’s too much too soon — when they’re not needling him for it.
“You guys doing an interview about our savior?” one said this spring as a reporter queried two others about Skenes. They were, in fact, though the 22-year-old Skenes is far more than just the player Pittsburgh is praying can liberate its woebegone baseball franchise from the dregs of the sport. He is a generational pitcher for a generation that doesn’t pitch like all the previous ones — but he is also still just a kid trying to navigate his way through a universe not built for him. He is happy to forgo the convenience of an apartment adjacent to the stadium for a soundless drive to the suburbs that feels almost meditative. He can ponder the questions he would like to answer — not the ones proffered by others. For instance: In this life so antithetical to the one he thought he would be living, who, exactly, is he?
“It’s funny,” Skenes says. “When you start thinking about stuff like this, you find that you don’t know a whole lot more than you thought while also learning about yourself. I know myself a lot better — and, in some ways, a lot less.”
IN JANUARY 2023 — six months after he’d left the only place he ever wanted to go, seven months before he started a career he never imagined he’d have — Skenes was chatting with LSU baseball coach Wes Johnson about the year ahead. The previous summer, he had transferred to the SEC power from the Air Force Academy, where he had played catcher and pitched. For all of Skenes’ power as a hitter, Johnson wasn’t interested in developing another Shohei Ohtani. This was big-time college baseball, and after a fall semester that for Skenes consisted of online courses and eight or nine hours a day of training for baseball, Johnson, the former pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, understood before most the implications of Skenes’ move.
“For the next two to three years, you will have a new normal every single day,” Johnson said.
Growing up, there were no conversations about the pressures of major league stardom in Skenes’ household. His father, Craig, was a biochemistry major who works in the eye medication industry and topped out in JV baseball. His mother, Karen, teaches AP chemistry and was in the marching band. Skenes was not allowed to touch a baseball after school until he finished his homework.
“It was never the big leagues really,” Skenes says. “It was ‘Be a good person, do your homework, go to church’ and all that. There’s nothing in my family that says that, yeah, this guy was born to be a big leaguer.”
Skenes’ parents told him to find what he loved and work really hard at it, which had led him to the Air Force. Skenes found comfort in the academy’s structure and rigor; the academy embodied his values of discipline and routine and responsibility. Skenes wanted to fly fighter jets and took deep pride in being an airman. That’s why Skenes cried when he decided, at the behest of his coaches, to leave for LSU after his sophomore year: He’d found what he’d loved and worked really hard at it and gotten it, only for something else to find him and cajole him away.
A big SEC school didn’t feel like Skenes’ speed — not the random public approaches, not the fanfare, not the Geaux Tigers of it all — but he understood why he needed to be there. He is a nerd who happened to stand 6-foot-6, weigh 260 pounds and throw a baseball with more skill than anyone in the country, and to turtle from that would be wasteful. The Air Force years had prepared him for the transition, and he ingratiated himself in Baton Rouge with a Sahara-dry sense of humor. Skenes would regularly walk around the clubhouse, stop at each teammate’s locker and rib him: “I worked harder than you today.” It was in jest, but it was also the truth, and when teammate Cade Beloso recounted the practice to ESPN’s broadcast team during LSU’s run to a College World Series title in 2023, Skenes recalls, “I’m like, dude, everybody thinks I’m a douche now. So there is still some of that. I still am that way, just not with everybody.”
He grappled with his identity at LSU, a California kid dropped into the bayou and forced to find his way. Meeting Livvy Dunne only compounded his need to adapt. An LSU gymnast with an innate talent for making social media content that bewitched Gen Z, Dunne was introduced to Skenes by mutual friends and she was immediately smitten. If LSU raised a magnifying glass over Skenes’ life and career — he’d gone from a fringe first-round pick to the top of draft boards on the strength of a junior season in which he struck out 209 in 122⅔ innings — Dunne brought the Hubble telescope. He didn’t even have Instagram or TikTok on his phone.
“I’m not perfect by any means, but I think that you can get yourself in trouble really quickly now because if you do anything, someone’s filming it,” Skenes says. “It takes a whole lot more energy to go out anywhere and pretend to be someone else than it does to go out and just be yourself. If being yourself doesn’t get you in trouble, then great. So that’s kind of the life that I think I was geared to live just based on the whole path coming up.
“I don’t think anything’s really changed. When I look at famous people or celebrities, I see a lot of the time people that do whatever they can because they think they can do whatever they can. Why is that? We’re all people. What has gotten you there? What has gotten you to being famous, to being a movie star? Whatever it is, you’re very good at what you do. So why change? I respect the people that don’t change a whole lot more than the other people that are, ‘Hey, I’m a celebrity.'”
Going with the first overall pick tested his willingness to stand by that ethos. Every pitch he threw invited more eyeballs, his rapid ascent to Pittsburgh an inevitability. The Pirates are a proud franchise hamstrung by an owner, Bob Nutting, fundamentally opposed to using his wealth to bridge the game’s inherent inequity. Skenes was their golden ticket, the best pitching prospect in more than a decade, and the excitement for his arrival at LSU paled compared to what greeted him May 11, when the Pirates summoned him to the big leagues. He was Pittsburgh’s, yes, but everyone in the baseball ecosystem wanted a piece of Skenes.
Over the next two months and 11 starts, he so thoroughly dominated hitters that he earned the start for the National League in the All-Star Game. His only inning included showdowns with Juan Soto (a seven-pitch walk that ended on a 100 mph fastball painted on the inside corner but not called a strike) and Aaron Judge (a first-pitch groundout on a 99 mph challenge fastball). He rushed home to spend the rest of the break with Dunne and settle back into a life he was learning to enjoy.
Skenes’ first season could not have gone much better. He threw 133 innings, struck out more than five hitters for every one he walked and posted a 1.96 ERA. The last rookie to start at least 20 games with a sub-2.00 ERA was Scott Perry in 1918, the tail end of the dead ball era. When Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. announced Skenes as NL Rookie of the Year winner, Dunne broke into a wide smile and rejoiced as Skenes sat stone-faced before mustering a toothless grin. Memelords pounced instantaneously and Skenes was immortalized as the picture of utter disinterest.
Which is fine by him. He was proud, but pride can manifest itself in manifold ways, and if LSU and his first big league season taught Skenes anything, it’s that he is not beholden to external whims and expectations. He’s going to figure out who he is his way. And that starts with seeking out the people whose opinions do matter to him.
IN THE FIRST inning of a July game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Skenes left the Pirates’ dugout and beelined into the bowels of Chase Field. Randy Johnson had just been inducted as an inaugural member of the Diamondbacks Hall of Fame, and Skenes was not going to miss the opportunity to shake his hand and pick his brain.
For someone as polished and proficient as Skenes, he remains fundamentally curious. However exceptional his aptitude to pitch might be, he’s still enough of a neophyte that he’s got oodles to absorb, and he’s humble enough to know what he doesn’t know. Skenes is not shy about trying to learn, and over the past year he has sought advice from a wide array of players whose careers he would love to emulate.
Johnson’s would have ended 20 years earlier than his 2009 retirement had he not done the same. Like Skenes, he was an otherworldly talent. Unlike Skenes, he needed almost a decade to tame it. Johnson didn’t find success until Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton, as well as pitching guru Tom House, advised him. So he was glad to talk with Skenes and try to offer a sliver of the assistance he’d been afforded. First, though, he had a question.
“It all depends on what you’re looking for,” Johnson said. “Are you looking for a good game, a good season or a good career?”
Skenes’ answer was a no-brainer: a good career. The no-selling of his Rookie of the Year win is a perfect example. It’s an award. It’s nice. It’s also the reflection of a single great season among the many more he anticipates having. For Skenes, the goal is game-to-game excellence and longevity, the hallmarks of true greatness. Johnson fears that the modern usage of starting pitchers inhibits players’ ability to marry the two.
Over the past 25 years, the number of 100-plus-pitch games in MLB has dipped from 2,391 to 635 last season. There were 1,297 starts of 110 or more pitches in 2000 and 33 last year. Skenes — and Johnson — believe some of today’s starting pitchers are capable of more. For a pitcher like Skenes to be limited by strictures based more in fear of injury than data that supports their implementation gnaws at Johnson, who regularly ran up high pitch counts before retiring at 46.
The second a career begins, Johnson told Skenes, it is marching toward its end, and the truly special players use the time in between to defy expectations and limitations. If Skenes is as good as everyone believes — “He’s where I’m at six or seven years after I found my mechanics,” Johnson says — then he will either convince the Pirates to remove the restrictor plate or eventually find a team that will. Which is why Johnson’s ultimate advice to him was simple: “This is your career.”
“It will be a mental mission for him,” Johnson says. “I understood throughout the course of my career that if I can talk myself through a game, I will realize my mission. I trained myself to put me in those positions for success, get me through that. I know the pitchers can do these things I talk about, but they’re not allowed to. And that, to me, is mind-boggling. It makes no sense to me. You’re not going to see a pitcher grow mentally or physically if you take him out of situations.”
Longevity was on the mind of another subject from whom Skenes sought advice. When the Pirates went to New York last year, Skenes met with Gerrit Cole in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. Cole is perhaps the best modern analog for Skenes: born and raised in Southern California, big-bodied hard thrower. Both went to college and then were drafted No. 1 by the Pirates; both are thoughtful, diligent, dedicated. Amid the de-emphasis of starting pitching, Cole blossomed into the exception, a head-of-the-rotation stalwart on a Hall of Fame track who made at least 30 starts in seven seasons before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this spring.
Unlike Johnson, who is now 61, Cole speaks the language of a modern pitcher. He is fluent in Trackman data, the benefit of good sleep habits and the influence diet can have on success.
“In the true pursuit of maximum human performance, these tools are providing an avenue for people to achieve that quicker,” Cole said earlier this month. “With the avenue out there to reach those maximum potentials quicker, the industry demands — the teams demand — almost a higher level of performance and, to a certain extent, an unsustainable level of performance. We’ve used the technology to maximize human performance. We haven’t used the technology quite well enough to maximize human sustainability.”
Cole is acutely aware of this. After more than 2,000 innings and 339 career starts, his right elbow blew out during spring training and will sideline him for the remainder of 2025. The correlation between fastball velocity and higher risk of arm injuries is established to the point that most in the industry regard it as causative. Johnson was the exception, not the rule, and Skenes knows enough math to know the fool’s errand of banking on outlier outcomes.
“My focus is on volume and durability,” Cole continued. “In order to give myself a chance to pitch for a long time to pitch for championship-contending teams, I have to be healthy. There’s a lot of incentives — as a competitor, financial — to make durability and sustainability the main goal.
“Skenes has the foundation to match that — and exceed it. He’s got more horsepower than me. He’s asking better questions early — questions about diet and sleep. He’s asking questions about mechanics. He’s tracking his throws. He has his own process with people that he surrounds himself with that are not only looking out for his performance right now but his performance long term. That’s important for guys to have advocates in their corner, not looking out just for this year. It’s really tough to find the right people.”
With Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer on the precipice of retirement, and Cole and Zack Wheeler in their mid-30s, a baton-passing is afoot. Because Skenes is best positioned to be the one grabbing it, Cole says, his advice runs the gamut. They spoke about pitching game theory, and Cole pointed out that the approach of Verlander, with whom he was teammates in Houston, runs counter to the max-effort philosophies espoused by starters who know that regardless of their ability to go deep into games, they’re not throwing much more than 100 pitches anyway.
Piece by piece, Skenes learns from those who have been what he intends to be. Pitchers, old and young, fill in some blanks, but he looks beyond the players who share his craft, too. He plans to spend more time talking with Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ star outfielder he met on a Zoom call for a rookie immersion program, and ask him: “What do you have that I need?” He reads books like “Relentless” and “Winning” by Michael Jordan’s longtime trainer, Tim Grover, and “Talent Is Overrated,” which has particular appeal for someone whose talent didn’t manage to attract draft interest from a single team out of high school despite playing in arguably the most talent-rich area in America.
“I don’t know if I’m going to get anything out of talking to anybody,” Skenes says, but at the same time he sees no harm in asking. Considering how much the game asks him to give, he’s owed a rebalancing.
THE FIRST TIME Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt met Skenes, he introduced himself with a proposition: “I’m gonna nominate you for the union board.”
The executive subcommittee of the Major League Baseball Players Association consists of eight players who help guide the union, particularly during collective bargaining. And with the current basic agreement set to expire following the 2026 season, labor discord has left people across the sport fearful of an extended work stoppage. The board is expected to wield even more power in the next round of negotiations, so the eight members are paramount in helping shape the game’s future.
Bassitt knew Skenes by reputation: that he was thoughtful, even-tempered, judicious — the kind of guy whose poker face on the mound would translate to a board room. He knows, too, the history of the union, that it’s at its strongest when the game’s most influential players serve as voices during the bargaining process. With the encouragement of veteran starter Nick Pivetta and former executive board head Andrew Miller, Skenes accepted his nomination and became the youngest player ever selected to the executive subcommittee.
“If we’re thinking about the future of the game,” Skenes says, “I think it’d be stupid to not have someone at least my age in there.”
Labor work is taxing. The game’s best players today often avoid the hassle. It did not have to be Skenes. But he harkened back to his years at the Air Force Academy in which cadets are taught the PITO model of leadership: personal, interpersonal, team and organization. In their first year, they focus on personal responsibility. Year 2 calls for them to take responsibility for another cadet. Skenes left before experiencing of team and organizational leadership at the academy, but the principles he learned apply enough that he felt a duty to serve as a voice for more than 1,200 other big leaguers, even if his service time pales compared to many of theirs.
The union and its rank and file are far from the only ones in the baseball world leaning on Skenes. MLB has struggled for years to create stars, and Skenes entered the big leagues with a Q score higher than 99% of players. Dunne’s presence alone invites a younger generation reared on the idea that baseball is boring to reconsider. Going forward, every marketing campaign MLB launches is almost guaranteed to include four players. One plays in Los Angeles (Ohtani). Two are in New York (Judge and Soto). The fourth resides in Pittsburgh.
More than anyone, the Pirates and their forlorn fan base regard Skenes as the fulcrum of their rebirth. They last won a division championship in 1992, when Barry Bonds still wore black and yellow. Their most recent playoff appearance was 2015, the last of three consecutive seasons with a wild-card spot (and losing the single game) when Cole was pitching for the franchise. Since then, they’ve finished fourth or fifth in the National League Central the past eight years and currently occupy the basement.
Nutting’s frugality hamstrings the Pirates perpetually. Never have they carried a nine-figure payroll. (This year’s on Opening Day: $91.3 million.) Since he bought the team in 2007, it has been in the bottom five 14 of 18 seasons. The Pirates’ revenue, according to Forbes, is almost identical to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Opening Day payroll: $188.5 million), Minnesota Twins ($147.4 million), Kansas City Royals ($131.6 million), Washington Nationals ($115.6 million) and Cincinnati Reds ($114.5 million). Other owners privately peg Nutting as among the game’s worst.
Which only reinforces the fear among Pirates fans that Skenes is bound to follow Cole out the door via trade within a few years of his debut, lest the team lose him following the 2029 season to free agency. Rooting for the Pirates is among the cruelest fates in sports, with the combination of unserious owner and revenue disparities leaving general manager Ben Cherington to crank up a player-development machine in hopes of competing. Their free agent signings this winter were longtime Pirate Andrew McCutchen, left-hander Andrew Heaney, outfielder Tommy Pham, second baseman Adam Frazier and left-handed relievers Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, all on one-year deals totaling $19.95 million. The last multiyear free agent contract Nutting handed out was to Ivan Nova in 2016.
“We’re going to create it from within the locker room, and it’s not going to be an ownership thing,” Skenes says. “Having a group of fans that are putting some pressure on the ownership and Ben and all that — it’s not a bad thing, but we have to go out there and do it. I kind of feel like we owe it to the city.”
Skenes had never been to Pittsburgh before he was drafted. “I do love it,” he said, and those who know him confirm Skenes’ sincerity. He wants nothing more at this point in his career than for his roommate and close friend Jared Jones, who’s on the injured list with elbow issues, to get healthy, and for Bubba Chandler, the Triple-A right-hander who’s topping out at 102 mph, to arrive, and for the Pirates’ farm system to churn out position players as regularly as it does pitchers. A couple more bats, a few relief arms, a free agent signing that’s more than a short-term plug, and you can squint and see a contender.
So much is out of Skenes’ control, though. All he can do is be the best version of himself. And bit by bit, he’s figuring out what that looks like.
SKENES IS ALWAYS looking for new ways to occupy himself when he’s away from the mound. In the back of his truck lays a compound bow. He shot it all of four times before abandoning it. In his bedroom sits a guitar gathering dust, $200 down the drain. He’s getting into golf these days, but he’s not sure it’s going to last.
“I get bored easily,” Skenes says. “I had a coach tell me that, and I was like, ‘I don’t think so. I think you’re wrong.’ And I’ve been thinking about that lately, and I think he’s right, because I’ve tried plenty of different hobbies and none of them have stuck.”
Similarly, Skenes wonders if the places his mind goes during his periods of silence are a function of boredom with baseball. “Not in a bad way,” he clarifies, but in the manner that behooves a player — that “there’s always something to be better at.”
In his most recent start Monday — a typical Skenes outing in which he allowed one earned run, struck out six and didn’t walk anyone over six innings — he threw six pitches: four-seam fastball, splinker, slider, sweeper, changeup, and curveball and splinker, the hybrid sinker-splitter he throws in the mid-90s to devastating effect. He toyed around with a cutter and two-seam fastball during spring training and could break them out at any moment. He waited until the fourth or fifth week of his season at LSU to unleash his curveball.
“I absolutely don’t believe that just because it’s the season, all right, this is what you got,” he says. “There’s no difference between spring training and the regular season in terms of getting better every day.”
This is his career, Skenes says, echoing Johnson, and he’s learning that he must wrangle control of it. He needs to chat with others who are what he wants to be, and he needs to find the silence to find himself, and he needs to set stratospheric expectations. Of all the aphorisms Skenes repeats, his favorite might be one he read in a book: “How you do anything is how you do everything.”
“There’s no option to not do the work that I need to do,” Skenes says. “… If I didn’t want to get in the cold tub a couple years ago or whatever it is, I wouldn’t. Now I do know whether I want to do it or not, it’s a nonnegotiable.”
If he keeps doing the work, Skenes believes, everything is there for the taking. The wins will come, and the success will follow, and the search for advice will give way to the dispensing of it. In the same way his training at the Air Force Academy readied him to handle the pressure cooker at LSU, it’s likewise destined to propel him into a role as leader and elder statesman in baseball.
For now, though, Skenes is trying to focus on today, tomorrow, this week. Even if the clock on his career is ticking, the hour hand has barely moved, and he doesn’t want this charmed life to fly by without taking the time to appreciate it. Earlier this spring, Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin asked Skenes: “What motivates you?”
Skenes considered the question and gave variations on the same answer: winning and getting better every day. Winning a baseball game is in his hands once every fifth day. But those are not the only wins within his control. Hard work is a win. Learning is a win. Leading is a win. Growing is a win. And in a life that’s only getting louder and faster and more demanding, silence is the sort of win that will help remind him who he is.
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