A Decade Of Wind, Solar, & Nuclear In China Shows Clear Scalability Winners
2010–2020 Showed Strong Wins For Wind & Solar In China, Nuclear Lagging
In 2014, I made the strong assertion that China’s track record on wind and nuclear generation deployments showed clearly that wind energy was more scalable. In 2019, I returned to the subject, and assessed wind, solar and nuclear total TWh of generation, asserting that wind and solar were outperforming nuclear substantially in total annual generation, and projected that the two renewable forms of generation would be producing 4 times the total TWh of nuclear by 2030 each year between them. Mea culpa: in the 2019 assessment, I overstated the experienced capacity factor for wind generation in China, which still lags US experiences, but has improved substantially in the past few years.
My thesis on scalability of deployment has remained unchanged: the massive numerical economies of scale for manufacturing and distributing wind and solar components, combined with the massive parallelization of construction that is possible with those technologies, will always make them faster and easier to scale in capacity and generation than the megaprojects of GW-scale nuclear plants. This was obvious in 2014, it was obviously true in 2019, and it remains clearly demonstrable today. Further, my point was that China was the perfect natural experiment for this assessment, as it was treating both deployments as national strategies (an absolute condition of success for nuclear) and had the ability and will to override local regulations and any NIMBYism. No other country could be used to easily assess which technologies could be deployed more quickly.
In March of this year I was giving the WWEA USA+Canada wind energy update as part of WWEA’s regular round-the-world presentation by industry analysts in the different geographies. My report was unsurprising. In 2020’s update, the focus had been on what the impact of COVID-19 would be on wind deployments around the world. My update focused on the much greater focus on the force majeure portions of wind construction contracts, and I expected that Canada and the USA would miss expectations substantially. The story was much the same in other geographies. And that was true for Canada, the USA and most of the rest of the geographies.
But China surprised the world in 2020, deploying not only 72 GW of wind energy, vastly more than expected, but also 48 GW of solar capacity. The wind deployment was a Chinese and global record for a single country, and the solar deployment was over 50% more than the previous year. Meanwhile, exactly zero nuclear reactors were commissioned in 2020.
And so, I return to my analysis of Chinese low-carbon energy deployment, looking at installed capacity and annual added extra generation.
Grid-connections of nameplate capacity of wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020 chart by author
I’ve aggregated this added additional capacity from multiple sources, including the World Nuclear Association, the Global Wind Energy Council, and the International Energy Agency’s photovoltaic material. In three of the 11 years from 2010 to 2020, China attached no nuclear generation to the grid at all. It’s adding more this year, but the year is not complete.
The solar and wind programs had been started in the mid-2000s, and wind energy initially saw much greater deployments. Having paid much more attention to wind energy than solar for the past decade, I was surprised that solar capacity deployments exceeded wind energy in 2017 and 2018, undoubtedly part of why solar was on track to double China’s 2020 target for the technology, while wind energy was only expected to reach 125% of targets. Nuclear was lagging targets substantially, and there was no expectation of achieving them. In 2019, the clear indication was that China would make substantially higher targets for wind and solar, and downgrade their expectations for nuclear, which has been borne out.
But nameplate capacity doesn’t matter as much as actual generation. As stated in the mea culpa, wind energy in China has underperformed. This was assessed in a Letter in the journal Environmental Research by European and North American researchers in 2018.
“Our findings underscore that the larger gap between actual performance and technical potential in China compared to the United States is significantly driven by delays in grid connection (14% of the gap) and curtailment due to constraints in grid management (10% of the gap), two challenges of China’s wind power expansion covered extensively in the literature. However, our findings show that China’s underperformance is also driven by suboptimal turbine model selection (31% of the gap), wind farm siting (23% of the gap), and turbine hub heights (6% of the gap)—factors that have received less attention in the literature and, crucially, are locked-in for the lifetime of wind farms.”
Some of the capacity factor issues are locked in, and some aren’t, but overall wind energy in China’s capacity is well below that of the US fleet still. I’ve adjusted capacity factors for wind energy to be 21% at the beginning of the decade, and up to 26% for 2020 deployments, still well below US experience. Solar, on the other hand, is less susceptible to some of the challenges of that impede wind energy’s generation, and the Chinese experienced median of 20% is used throughout the decade. China’s nuclear fleet has had much better ability to connect to the grid, and as the reactors are new, they aren’t being taken offline for substantial maintenance yet. The average capacity factor for the fleet of 91.1% for the decade is used.
Generation in TWh added each year by wind, solar and nuclear in China 2010-2020
And this tells the tale. Even adjusted for the poor capacity factor’s wind experienced and the above global average capacity factor for nuclear, in no year did the nuclear fleet add more actual generation than wind energy. The story is more mixed in the solar vs nuclear story, but only once in the past five years was more annual generation in TWh added by the nuclear program than by solar. And as a reminder, the Chinese wind and solar deployment programs started well over a decade after the nuclear program which saw its first grid connections in 1994.
What is also interesting to see is that the reversal in wind and solar deployments in China in the past two years. 2019 and 2020 saw double or more than double the actual generation in TWh added by wind than solar. To be clear, some of this is uptick is due to an expected and subsequently announced elimination of federal subsidies for utility-scale solar, commercial solar and onshore wind projects in 2021.
“The new rule, effective from Aug. 1, follows a drastic fall in manufacturing costs for solar and wind devices amid booming renewable capacity in China.”
This appears to have driven Chinese 2020 wind energy deployments to ensure that they would receive the compensation, just as US deployments have seen significant surges and lulls due to changes in the production tax credit. As a result, there is speculation that the announced wind generation capacity is not as fully completed as announced. However, that should not change the expected capacity factors for the coming years, and so I’ve left the 120 TWh projected delivery from the wind farms deployed in 2020 as is.
It’s worth noting that as of today, 7 of the 10 largest wind turbine manufacturers, and 9 of the 10 largest solar component manufacturers are Chinese companies. China remains, as I pointed out a couple of years ago, the only scaled manufacturer of many of the technologies necessary for decarbonization. Further, it’s expanding its market share in those technologies rapidly.
My 2014 thesis continues to be supported by the natural experiment being played out in China. In my recent published assessment of small modular nuclear reactors (tl’dr: bad idea, not going to work), it became clear to me that China has fallen into one of the many failure conditions of rapid deployment of nuclear, which is to say an expanding set of technologies instead of a standardized single technology, something that is one of the many reasons why SMRs won’t be deployed in any great numbers.
Wind and solar are going to be the primary providers of low-carbon energy for the coming century, and as we electrify everything, the electrons will be coming mostly from the wind and sun, in an efficient, effective and low-cost energy model that doesn’t pollute or cause global warming. Good news indeed that these technologies are so clearly delivering on their promise to help us deal with the climate crisis.
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MINI has partnered with lifestyle brand, Deus Ex Machina, to develop this. It’s called the Skeg, and it’s a high-performance, racing-inspired electric concept car that’s sure to lighten the mood – by shedding fully 15% of its mass in the quest for speed.
One of a pair of exclusive, one-off concepts based on MINI’s John Cooper Works cars. The Deus Ex Machina Skeg celebrates MINI’s storied racing history with what the company calls, “a clean, minimal, and quiet rebellion,” that draws on materials, technologies, and philosophies from the world of surfing.
The electric MINI JCW Skeg is stripped to its essentials, with much of the steel and aluminum bits replaced with lightweight fiberglass to maximize acceleration while driving the minimalist aesthetic home. The end result weighs 15% less than the standard car – but makes the same stout 190 kW (258 hp) as the production car.
Surf’s up
The interior is stripped back to the barest essentials, reflecting BMW’s vision of a surf culture that prioritizes function over form. MINI claims the end result resembles a mobile surf shop, with fiberglass trays for wetsuits, specially shaped bins, neoprene seats, and other touches that “bring the surf culture into the interior.”
For their part, the BMW and MINI styling team seems pretty proud of its minimalistic electric endeavor. “In this extraordinary collaboration … every single detail has been crafted with artisanal precision and expertise,” says Holger Hampf, Head of MINI Design. “This has resulted in unique characters that are clearly perceived as belonging together through their distinctive design language and use of graphics.”
The concept retains the production version’s 54.2 kWh li-ion battery pack, up to 250 of WLTP range with the production aero kit, sprints from 0-100 km (62 mph) in just 5.9 seconds. With 15% less mass, though, that should jump to more than 255 miles, with 0-60 times dropping below 5.5 seconds.
I dig it – but I’d skip the surf bits and just appreciate the raw composite, minimalist interior look for what it is. Take a look at the image gallery, below, then let us know what you think of MINI’s Skeg concept in the comments.
MINI Skeg concept | gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: BMW MINI.
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Environment
Volvo Penta teams up with e-power to equip Boels with next-gen Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
Veteran marine and industrial power solutions company Volvo Penta has joined forces with energy solutions provider e-power to build battery energy storage systems (BESS). Volvo Penta’s battery systems for energy storage will power BESS units built by e-power that can be catered to a range of applications, most notably construction rental clients like Boels Rentals in Europe.
Volvo Penta is a provider of sustainable power solutions that currently serves land and sea applications under the Volvo Group umbrella. As more and more of the world goes all-electric, the global manufacturer has also adapted, sharing cultural values with Volvo Group to engineer new and innovative sustainable power solutions.
Nearly 100 years later, Volvo Penta remains an industry leader in marine propulsion systems and industrial engines. As more and more of the world goes all-electric, the Swedish manufacturer has also adapted, sharing cultural values with Volvo Group to engineer new and innovative sustainable power solutions.
For example, all Volvo Penta diesel engines now run on hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO), reducing well-to-wheel emissions by up to 90% across the marine and industrial power industries. On the zero-emissions side, Volvo Penta has expressed its dedication to fossil-free power solutions, including battery electric components to serve heavy-duty applications such as terminal tractors, forklifts, drill rigs, and feed mixers, to name a few.
To leverage its battery electric value chain, Volvo Penta has also ventured into battery systems for energy storage (or BESS subsystems). These energy-dense, purpose-built BESS subsystems can provide portable, sustainable energy for all-electric charging and reduce grid dependency.
Volvo Penta to deploy battery systems for energy storage
Volvo Penta recently announced a strategic partnership with e-power, a Belgian power solutions provider. Together, Volvo Penta and e-power will develop a scalable Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) for Boels Rental.
The collaboration continues a long-standing partnership between all three companies. Boels – one of the largest construction rental companies is a long-time customer of e-power generators that utilize Volvo Penta engines. As the company shifts toward electrification and sustainability, it will again turn to those companies to deliver reliable performance.
Volvo Penta’s BESS subsystem comprises battery packs, a Battery Management System (BMS), DC/DC converters, and thermal management, combining to offer a compact, high-density, and transport-friendly solution optimized for rental operations. The company shared that this BESS design is integration-ready, enabling other OEMs like e-power to adapt and scale systems to customer-specific needs. Per e-power business support director, Jens Fets:
We’ve built our reputation on reliability and efficient power systems. Working again with Volvo Penta, this time on battery energy storage, allows us to meet the growing demand for energy in a silent, low-emissions, compact and mobile design—especially in rental applications.
The deployment of these new battery energy storage systems will help Boels cater to its customers’ growing demand for clean, silent, and mobile energy solutions in construction and other industrial applications.
Aside from being more quickly adaptable to customer needs, Volvo Penta says its BESS architecture marks an overall shift in rental power systems. This is welcome news for all who support a cleaner, more sustainable future across all industries.
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That didn’t take long! Just a few hours after Mercedes revealed the screen-heavy interior of its upcoming 2026 GLC EV, photos of the new crossover’s exterior – and that controversial grille! – leaked on Instagram and Reddit. We’ve got them here.
Two days ahead of the GLC EV’s officially schedule global debut, images that reportedly show the new 2026 Mercedes undisguised have leaked on Instagram and Reddit. They show the blocky new light-up grille on the nose of a very smooth, jellybean-like crossover shape that, despite Mercedes’ insistence that it’s moving away from the EQ series’ design language, looks an awful lot like an EQ Mercedes.
Check out the leaked images from kindleauto’s Instagram account, below, and see if you agree with that assessment.
If you need to see more before you feel comfortable commenting on the new SUV’s looks, there’s a few more angles over on the r/mercedes_benz subreddit.
Leaked exterior pictures of the upcoming GLC EV
byu/Quick_Coyote_7649 inmercedes_benz
As with everything else on the internet, take those unofficial images with a grain of salt and maybe wait until the GLC EV’s official reveal in a few days’ time before casting your final vote on the new look – but there’s very little reason to believe the new Mercedes will look terribly different from what you see here.
Will the new grille and tech-forward interior with its massive, 39″ screen and MB.OS software be enough to turn the tide for Mercedes-Benz, enabling it to finally gain some traction in the electric crossover market? That remains to be seen, but the recently updated Tesla Model Y and crisply-styled new BMW iX3 with its 500 miles of range will make it an uphill battle, for sure.
We got a sneak peek at the new GLC back in July, when Mercedes-Benz Group CEO, Ola Källenius said that, “We’re not just introducing a new model – we’re electrifying our top seller.” Back then, we learned that the new GLC EV would have a wheelbase 3.1″ longer than the current ICE-powered model, as well as more head- and leg-room for its occupants and an extra 4.5 cubic feet (for 61.4 total) of cargo space.
Källenius also promised an innovative new 800V electric architecture and the latest battery tech, which will enable the electric GLC to add around 260 km (~160 miles) of WLTP range in just ten minutes thanks to more than 300 kW of charging capability.
SOURCES | IMAGES: kindleauto; Quick_Coyote_7649.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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