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Boris Johnson will be confident of victory in a snap Commons vote on his NHS bailout and social care shake-up, which MPs are claiming is the biggest political gamble of his premiership.

Defying potential Tory rebels, the prime minister has raised taxes to their highest level since the Second World War and broken Conservative manifesto pledges on taxation and pensions.

And ahead of a debate and vote on what some senior Tories are calling a one-item Budget, the threat of a damaging backbench rebellion was receding and a full-scale mutiny close to collapse.

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PM promises social care boost

The crucial vote, just 24 hours after Mr Johnson unveiled his £12 billion tax hike, is on a motion to give the government the authority to create a healthcare levy and change the rate of national insurance.

Writing in the Daily Mail, the prime minister said he wanted to put an end to the “cruel lottery” of who will or will not face financial ruin to meet their care costs.

Mr Johnson conceded that a lot of the money raised would not, at least in the short term, be going towards social care reform, but would be used to relieve pressure on the NHS and to clear the “backlog of missed operations and treatments”.

He said he had ruled out borrowing to pay for his proposed reforms and instead had “reluctantly concluded that the only responsible course is to ask everyone to pay more”.

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He added: “No one in this Conservative government wants to raise taxes. But after the extraordinary exertions of the NHS – and the sacrifices made by countless people – we cannot shirk the challenge.”

And although the PM has not ruled out further tax rises, most Conservative MPs back the post-COVID emergency cash injection to tackle the massive NHS backlog and accept that reform of social care funding is long overdue.

Many MPs also see the snap vote as a move to bounce potential rebels into backing the controversial proposals and claim the threat of an imminent government reshuffle is being used by No. 10 to exert pressure on MPs and ministers to remain loyal.

The prime minister’s move to combine his tax hike to pay for social care reforms with extra cash to fight the COVID backlog in the NHS is being seen as a political masterstroke that effectively killed off the threat of a major rebellion.

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Is the social care plan fair or unfair?

Defending the tax hike, Chancellor Rishi Sunak writes in The Times: “This is one of the most consequential decisions a government has made on a matter of public policy in my lifetime; a decision that governments of all political colours have said they would make, but ultimately ducked.

“But we can’t spend money we don’t have, and this will come at a cost. There will be some who will say that we should borrow, and hope that in the end it will all come good. But no responsible government would ever plan on that basis.

“With national debt set to reach nearly 100 per cent of GDP and our borrowing levels high as a result of the pandemic, we must take the difficult decisions. So we have made the tough but responsible choice to raise taxes.

“And the only way to raise such significant sums is from income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions (NICs). We believe NICs is the fairest and most progressive approach.”

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A budget in all but name

The Commons vote presents a dilemma for Labour, which also backs more cash for the NHS but is opposed to the 1.25% rise in national insurance. Sir Keir Starmer held an emergency meeting of his shadow cabinet to decide how to respond.

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Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

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Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

The prime minister has refused to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes in next week’s budget while speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby.

Sir Keir Starmer was interviewed by Rigby while the pair were in South Africa for a meeting of the G20 group of nations.

Despite the government last year indicating it was not going to raise more taxes, it appears that Wednesday’s fiscal event will involve substantial increases in levies.

The 2024 Labour manifesto said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.

“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

At the start of their interview, the prime minister was asked by Rigby if it was important for politicians to “stick to their word”.

Sir Keir said: “Yes, it is important that politicians stick to their word.

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“They have to make decisions against a political backdrop. And, we’ve also got big decisions to make in the budget that’s coming in just a few days time.”

This caveat matches the expectations that a range of taxes are going to be increased so the government can keep its spending pledges and increase its fiscal headroom amid worsening economic headwinds.

There was chaos last week after the increase in income tax that many had expected to be on the way was revealed to no longer be on the cards.

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Why has chancellor U-turned on income tax rises?

Asked specifically on the manifesto commitment on tax, Sir Keir told Rigby that decisions will be made “against a very difficult backdrop”.

In total, the prime minister refused 12 times to rule out tax rises.

He added it was “important to take the right decisions for our country”.

Rigby pointed out in the lead-up to the 2024 Budget, the prime minister was more unequivocal, saying income tax, national insurance and VAT would not all go up.

The prime minister declined to make the same promise, saying the decisions on tax will be announced on Wednesday.

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However, Sir Keir said the budget will be guided by “principles”, including “fairness”.

The prime minister said the three areas he is “bearing down on” are the NHS, cutting national debt and dealing with the cost of living crisis.

One tax rise that has not been ruled out is what is known as a “stealth tax rise” of freezing income tax thresholds.

Rigby highlighted that in last year’s budget, Rachel Reeves said freezing thresholds will “hurt working people” – and asked the prime minister if he agreed.

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Sir Keir said: “We are going to set out our decisions.

“We will have absolutely in mind that the cost of living is the number one issue for people across the country.”

Pushed again, if working people will have their taxes increased, the prime minister instead mentioned he has people who are “struggling with the cost of living” in mind when making decisions.

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Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

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Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

Khurram Dara, a former policy lawyer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, officially launched his campaign for New York State Attorney General.

In a Friday notice, Dara cited his ā€œregulatory and policy experience, particularly in the crypto and fintech spaceā€ among his reasons to try to unseat Attorney General Letitia James in 2026.

The former Coinbase lawyer had been hinting since August at potential plans to run for office, claiming that James had engaged in ā€œlawfareā€ against the crypto industry in New York.

Law, Politics, New York, Elections
Source: Khurram Dara

Until July, Dara was the regulatory and policy principal at Bain Capital Crypto, the digital asset arm of the investment company. According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as Coinbase’s policy counsel from June 2022 to January 2023 and was previously employed at the crypto companies Fluidity and Airswap.

James, who took office in 2019, has faced criticism from many in the crypto industry for filing lawsuits against companies on behalf of affected New Yorkers, including Genesis, KuCoin and NovaTech. Whoever assumes the role of New York’s attorney general would have significant discretion over whether to file charges against crypto companies.

Related: New York AG urges Congress to bolster protections in crypto bills

Dara, who said he plans to run as a Republican, also echoed Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s recent winning campaign, citing New Yorkers’ concerns about the cost of living and affordability. Cointelegraph reached out to Dara for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

The lawyer who represented XRP holders is also running for office again

As the deadline approached for candidates for various offices to announce their runs, former Massachusetts senatorial candidate John Deaton said he would try to unseat a Democrat again.Ā 

Deaton ran against Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2024, losing by about 700,000 votes. On Nov. 10, however, he announced he would run as a Republican again, attempting to unseat Senator Ed Markey in 2026.