Up to 660,000 jobs – many in the UK’s industrial heartlands – are at risk unless Boris Johnson speeds up green investment and moving to “net zero” carbon dioxide emissions, according to a major study.
Many of the areas where jobs are most under threat include the “red wall” constituencies won by the Conservatives from Labour at the last election, and the unemployment threat will worry Tory MPs from these areas.
The warning comes in analysis by the TUC as it begins a three-day conference and just weeks before the Prime Minister welcomes world leaders including President Biden to the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow.
Besides climate change, being debated on day one, the TUC’s part-virtual conference at its London HQ will be dominated by protecting jobs post-COVID, opposition to last week’s national insurance hike and the planned £20 universal credit cut next month.
Spelling out the jobs warning, general secretary Frances O’Grady, who speaks in person on day two of the conference, declared: “The world is moving very clearly in one direction – away from carbon and toward net zero. The UK must keep up with the pace of change.
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“There’s still time to protect vital jobs in manufacturing and its supply chains. But the clock is ticking.
“Unless the government urgently scales up investment in green tech and industry, we risk losing hundreds of thousands of decent jobs to competitor nations.
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“If we move quickly, we can still safeguard Britain’s industrial heartlands. The government should boost investment to at least the G7 average and commit to the Green Jobs Taskforce plans in full.
“Then today’s workers will know that their jobs are safe, and the future can be bright with decent jobs for their children too.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer will address the conference in person on Tuesday
The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will address the conference in person on Tuesday, in what is likely to be a dress rehearsal for his Labour conference speech in Brighton two weeks later, which critics claim will be make-or-break for his leadership.
The conference will also see the public debut of new Unite general secretary Sharon Graham, elected last month, who is also due to speak on Tuesday, in support of a TUC motion demanding an end to “fire and rehire” by employers.
The TUC’s job losses analysis is based on data from the Office of National Statistics and researchers Catapult Energy Systems, a company funded by the government through Innovate UK, the UK’s innovation agency.
The unions want the government to implement recommendations in a report in July by its Green Jobs Taskforce, chaired by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, and launch an £85bn green recovery package to create 1.24 million green jobs.
The TUC claims that unless the government acts now nearly 260,000 manufacturing jobs and more than 400,000 in supply chains could be moved offshore to countries that offer superior green infrastructure and greater support for decarbonising industry.
According to a TUC report in June, the UK Treasury is investing £180 per person on green recovery and jobs over the next decade, compared to President Biden planning £2,960 per person on green recovery, jobs and programmes like public transport, electric vehicles and energy efficiency.
Image: Hundreds of thousands of people face unemployment, the TUC has warned
The industries facing the biggest job losses, according to the TUC analysis, are:
• Rubber and plastics: nearly 80,000 jobs; • Chemicals: 63,000; • Glass and ceramics: more than 40,000; • Iron and steel: nearly 27,000; • Textiles: 18,000; • Paper, pulp and printing: 15,500.
Supply chain jobs threatened include those in construction, producing and maintaining industrial machinery, transport, and trade, bringing the total number of jobs at risk to 660,000, according to the TUC.
The TUC also claims workers in the UK’s industrial heartlands are particularly at risk, with nearly 40,000 under threat in North West England, nearly 37,000 in Yorkshire and the Humber and more than 30,000 in the West Midlands.
According to the TUC,jobs in the steel industry are at a high risk because manufacturing is currently dependent on burning coal for high temperatures required to produce high-grade steel.
Alan Coombs, who has worked at Port Talbot steelworks for 40 years, said: “Companies overseas are already setting target dates for green steel. But the UK isn’t even putting our toe in the water.
“We have families here who are third or fourth generation working at the plant. If we don’t have apprenticeships in green steel technology soon, there won’t be another generation.
“If we put ourselves at forefront of green innovation, we can protect the workforce. But it needs government action.”
Sticking to Labour’s manifesto pledge and freezing income tax thresholds rather than raising income tax has hurt low- and middle-income earners, an influential thinktank has said.
Millions of these workers “would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen”, according to the Resolution Foundation’s chief executive, Ruth Curtice.
“Ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners”, she said.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in her budget speech that the point at which people start paying higher rates of tax has been held. It means earners are set to be dragged into higher tax bands as they get pay rises.
The chancellor felt unable to raise income tax as the Labour Party pledged not to raise taxes on working people in its election manifesto.
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3:47
Budget: What does the public think?
But many are saying that pledge was broken regardless, as the tax burden has increased by £26bn in this budget.
When asked by Sky News whether Ms Reeves would accept she broke the manifesto pledge, she said:
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“I do recognise that yesterday I have asked working people to contribute a bit more by freezing those thresholds for a further three years from 2028.”
“I do recognise that that will mean that working people pay a bit more, but I’ve kept that contribution to an absolute minimum”.
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The Resolution Foundation thinktank, which aims to raise living standards, welcomed measures designed to support people with the cost of living, such as the removal of the two-child benefit cap, which limited the number of children families could claim benefits for.
The announced reduction in energy bills through the removal of as yet unspecified levies was similarly welcomed.
The chancellor said bills would become £150 cheaper a year, but the foundation said typical energy bills will fall by around £130 annually for the next three years, “though support then fades away”.
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This budget won’t be the last of it, Ms Curtice said, as economic growth forecasts have been downgraded by independent forecasters the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and growth is a “hurdle that remains to be cleared”.
“Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing budgets,” she added.
It comes despite Ms Reeves saying as far back as last year, there would be no more tax increases.
Ultimately, though, the foundation said, “The great drumbeat of doom that preceded the chancellor’s big day turned out to be over the top: the forecasts came in better than many had feared.”
On the edge of the Chilterns and 30 minutes from central London by train, it’s Britain’s most expensive market town for first-time buyers. It’s also been voted one of the top 10 best, and top 20 happiest, places to live in the country.
Last summer Labour did well in the polls here too. Hitchin’s 35,000 inhabitants, with above average earnings, levels of employment, and higher education, ejected the Conservatives for the first time in more than 50 years.
Having swept into affluent southern constituencies, Rachel Reeves is now asking them to help pay for her plans via a combination of increased taxes on earnings and savings.
While her first budget made business bear the brunt of tax rises, the higher earners of Hitchin, and those aspiring to join them, are unapologetically in the sights of the second.
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2:37
How will the budget impact your money?
Kai Walker, 27, runs Vantage Plumbing & Heating, a growing business employing seven engineers, all earning north of £45,000, with ambition to expand further.
He’s disappointed that the VAT threshold was not reduced – “it makes us 20% less competitive than smaller players” – and does not love the prospect of his fiancee paying per-mile to use her EV.
But it’s the freeze on income tax thresholds that will hit him and his employees hardest, inevitably dragging some into the 40% bracket, and taking more from those already there.
“It seems like the same thing year on end,” he says. “Work harder, pay more tax, the thresholds have been frozen again until 2031, so it’s just a case where we see less of our money. Tax the rich has been a thing for a while or, you know, but I still don’t think that it’s fair.
“I think with a lot of us working class, it’s just a case of dealing with the cost. Obviously, we hope for change and lower taxes and stuff, but ultimately it’s a case of we do what we’re told.”
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3:00
‘We are asking people to contribute’
Reeves’s central pitch is that taxes need to rise to reset the public finances, support the NHS, and fund welfare increases she had promised to cut.
In Hitchin’s Market Square it has been heard, but it is strikingly hard to find people who think this budget was for them.
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8:41
OBR gives budget verdict
Jamie and Adele Hughes both work, had their first child three weeks ago, and are unconvinced.
“We’re going to be paying more, while other people are going to be getting more money and they’re not going to be working. I don’t think it’s fair,” says Adele.
Jamie adds: “If you’re from a generation where you’re trying to do well for yourself, trying to do things which were once possible for everybody, which are not possible for everybody now, like buying a house, starting a family like we just have, it’s extremely difficult,” says Jamie.
Image: Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election
Liz Felstead, managing director of recruitment company Essential Results, fears the increase in the minimum wage will hit young people’s prospects hard.
“It’s disincentivising employers to hire younger people. If you have a choice between someone with five years experience or someone with none, and it’s only £2,000 difference, you are going to choose the experience.”
After five years, the cost of living crisis has not entirely passed Hitchin by. In the market Kim’s World of Toys sells immaculately reconditioned and repackaged toys at a fraction of the price.
Demand belies Hitchin’s reputation. “The way that it was received was a surprise to us I think, particularly because it’s a predominantly affluent area,” says Kim. “We weren’t sure whether that would work but actually the opposite was true. Some of the affluent people are struggling as well as those on lower incomes.”
Customer Joanne Levy, shopping for grandchildren, urges more compassion for those who will benefit from Reeves’s spending plans: “The elderly, they’re struggling, bless them, the sick, people with young children, they are all struggling, even if they’re working they are struggling.”
On the edge of the Chilterns and 30 minutes from central London by train, it’s Britain’s most expensive market town for first-time buyers. It’s also been voted one of the top 10 best, and top 20 happiest, places to live in the country.
Last summer Labour did well in the polls here too. Hitchin’s 35,000 inhabitants, with above average earnings, levels of employment, and higher education, ejected the Conservatives for the first time in more than 50 years.
Having swept into affluent southern constituencies, Rachel Reeves is now asking them to help pay for her plans via a combination of increased taxes on earnings and savings.
While her first budget made business bear the brunt of tax rises, the higher earners of Hitchin, and those aspiring to join them, are unapologetically in the sights of the second.
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2:37
How will the budget impact your money?
Kai Walker, 27, runs Vantage Plumbing & Heating, a growing business employing seven engineers, all earning north of £45,000, with ambition to expand further.
He’s disappointed that the VAT threshold was not reduced – “it makes us 20% less competitive than smaller players” – and does not love the prospect of his fiancee paying per-mile to use her EV.
But it’s the freeze on income tax thresholds that will hit him and his employees hardest, inevitably dragging some into the 40% bracket, and taking more from those already there.
“It seems like the same thing year on end,” he says. “Work harder, pay more tax, the thresholds have been frozen again until 2031, so it’s just a case where we see less of our money. Tax the rich has been a thing for a while or, you know, but I still don’t think that it’s fair.
“I think with a lot of us working class, it’s just a case of dealing with the cost. Obviously, we hope for change and lower taxes and stuff, but ultimately it’s a case of we do what we’re told.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:00
‘We are asking people to contribute’
Reeves’s central pitch is that taxes need to rise to reset the public finances, support the NHS, and fund welfare increases she had promised to cut.
In Hitchin’s Market Square it has been heard, but it is strikingly hard to find people who think this budget was for them.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
8:41
OBR gives budget verdict
Jamie and Adele Hughes both work, had their first child three weeks ago, and are unconvinced.
“We’re going to be paying more, while other people are going to be getting more money and they’re not going to be working. I don’t think it’s fair,” says Adele.
Jamie adds: “If you’re from a generation where you’re trying to do well for yourself, trying to do things which were once possible for everybody, which are not possible for everybody now, like buying a house, starting a family like we just have, it’s extremely difficult,” says Jamie.
Image: Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election
Liz Felstead, managing director of recruitment company Essential Results, fears the increase in the minimum wage will hit young people’s prospects hard.
“It’s disincentivising employers to hire younger people. If you have a choice between someone with five years experience or someone with none, and it’s only £2,000 difference, you are going to choose the experience.”
After five years, the cost of living crisis has not entirely passed Hitchin by. In the market Kim’s World of Toys sells immaculately reconditioned and repackaged toys at a fraction of the price.
Demand belies Hitchin’s reputation. “The way that it was received was a surprise to us I think, particularly because it’s a predominantly affluent area,” says Kim. “We weren’t sure whether that would work but actually the opposite was true. Some of the affluent people are struggling as well as those on lower incomes.”
Customer Joanne Levy, shopping for grandchildren, urges more compassion for those who will benefit from Reeves’s spending plans: “The elderly, they’re struggling, bless them, the sick, people with young children, they are all struggling, even if they’re working they are struggling.”