“Renewable Natural Gas” Is the Ultimate Red Herring
There are three fossil fuels we must stop burning if we are to save our planet: coal, oil, and methane (aka “natural”) gas. Coal is declining precipitously. Scientists think we hit peak coal in 2013, and American use of coal has fallen by over 50% in the last 10 years (though, we need to quickly nail this coffin closed considering how dirty and polluting coal is). Oil is seeing the writing on the wall as major automakers commit to electric vehicles. Many think 2019 may have been the year we hit peak oil, and EVs are expected to make the internal combustion engine a “historical technology” by 2040. The faster we historicize petroleum, the better, so please buy that electric car or e-bike today.
Natural gas (aka methane) now comes into sight as the next fossil fuel we need to banish in the quest to rescue ourselves from the most catastrophic climate catastrophe. Burning methane is currently responsible for nearly 25% of all carbon emissions in the US, and its use is growing. Methane is also deeply embedded in many of our homes, and this will make it a challenge to extricate. We aren’t anywhere near hitting peak natural gas usage on our current trajectory.
But, as of recently, some American cities, mostly in California, have recognized the need to eliminate gas and slowly get us off the fossil sauce. In 2019, these leading cities did something that had never been done in the history of our species — they started banning future use of methane in new construction. The idea has been to stop digging a hole that we have to quickly climb out of, so they legislated that no new homes or buildings should be built with methane hookups. This will avoid costly retrofits later. The city-led ban began in California, has reached over 50 cities, and is spreading up the West Coast like a good kind of wildfire.
Enter “Renewable” Natural Gas
Any entrenched industry will fight with all its might not to disrupt revenue streams, regardless of the effects of their products on humanity (see: oxycontin and tobacco). So, it is to be expected that methane peddlers will spend the next crucial decades resisting efforts to ban their product. They’ll use lots of arguments to slow humanity’s inexorable push towards a fossil fuel future. The most ingenious/insidious one that we must quickly debunk is that their carbon polluting fuel is actually clean or has the potential to become so.
Enter, stage right, “renewable natural gas,” or RNG, a brilliant buzzword for a product that companies are counting on consumers to believe in, to continue with business mostly as usual. Renewable natural gas is methane that comes from biological sources like human and cow sewage or landfills. It differs from current methane, which is fracked from the earth’s interior, some of which escapes through pipes, while the rest is burned, adding to our dangerous warming blanket. RNG harnesses methane being created anyway and thus, doesn’t add new layers to our greenhouse problem. A group of nonprofits in my region just released an in-depth look at renewable natural gas and the numbers aren’t good.
How to Make Renewable Natural Gas — Anaerobic Digestion and Gasification
Before we can examine how much RNG our society will be able to realistically produce, let’s briefly talk about the two ways to make renewable natural gas. Even though, as we’ll shortly see, RNG won’t come remotely close to meeting our current gas demand, it still has the potential to be an important, lower-carbon tool in reducing the emissions of hard-to-decarbonize applications (like industry).
The first way to make RNG is through anaerobic digestion technology. This is a process where bacteria eat waste in an atmosphere that doesn’t contain oxygen (anaerobic). Sewage treatment plants and pig farms use this process. They gather fecal matter, bring bacteria to a specific temperature, do a lot of other magic in pipes, and out comes methane gas. Landfills are another source of this methane as wasted food and other fun stuff are eaten by bacteria underground and methane is created as a byproduct.
The second way to make RNG is through thermal gasification, which “uses energy to turn agriculture and commercial forest harvest residues” into something called Syngas. Syngas can then be converted to methane with more processing. According to a large survey by the State of Oregon, “There are currently no commercial-scale thermal gasification plants in the United States that convert biomass into methane. The existing plants produce syngas, which is burned and used to generate heat and electricity.” So thermal gasification is a potentially important, but unproven technology that should not make us believe that we can simply keep burning gas in our homes.
How Much Renewable Natural Gas Could We Conceivably Produce?
In the 2018 Oregon study cited above, (which had many gas industry officials involved in its writing) researchers looked at what we could optimistically hope for from RNG production. The numbers aren’t good. The potential for anaerobic digestion is 4.6% while the potential for thermal gasification is 17.5% of current natural gas usage in the state. So RNG could potentially cover 20% of the methane gas we use today, assuming significant investments in technology and distribution systems that do not exist today – in other words and not anytime soon.Think about it. We could work our tushies off over the next couple, crucial decades, to try to decarbonize natural gas pipes, while the planet is heating up and wildfire smoke is crossing our country coast to coast, and after crucial time and work, we’d still be using 80% fracked, fossil natural gas. If that’s not backing the wrong horse, then I don’t know what is.
Oregon’s numbers are similar to national numbers. Another study found that, nationally, we could hope for about 16% renewable natural gas, and again, this is far in the future and only if we invest heavily in RNG.
Compare that to electricity as a fuel, and you’ll see a stark difference. Right now, the national electric grid gets 20% of its power from renewables and 20% from nuclear, making electricity 40% carbon free. Biden wants to get to 100% by 2035. Oregon recently passed a law to get to 80% clean electricity by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Wind and solar are carbon neutral and are the cheapest and most installed forms of new energy generation. We have the roadmap and the tools to completely decarbonize electricity over the next 10–20 years and are doing so faster than anyone expected. Clean electricity is real, proven, happening and the horse we should be backing.
Electrifying our house and capping our natural gas pipe was one of the best things my family has done for the climate.
Other problems with renewable natural gas
There are other significant problems with renewable natural gas which are highlighted in depth in this brilliant article by Laura Feinstein and Eric de Place. Renewable natural gas isn’t even zero carbon. It is true that it often comes from existing sources of methane, but often those sources of methane could be avoided. Take landfills for example. When we toss food scraps into landfills it creates methane. We could capture that methane to make renewable natural gas or we could compost the food scraps like many cities and nations do, and avoid making that methane in the first place and get the benefits of richer, healthier soil in our communities. Relying on renewable natural gas could thus lock us into wasteful, inefficient practices when other options exist.
Another significant problem is that RNG costs a lot to make. A million BTUs of methane gas currently costs $3. The median cost for the equivalent amount of RNG is about 6 times that, at $18. Yipes! Imagine telling consumers that their gas bills are going to sextuple, and you’ll start to see how viable RNG is as a long term solution.
Scratch the surface, and it’s easy to see how RNG meets the classic definition of a red herring; “something that misleads and distracts us from a relevant or important question.” There won’t be very much of it, and it’s going to be very expensive. Let’s not get sidetracked from real climate solutions. When our local methane suppliers use the word “renewable” to keep pumping fossils into our homes, we need to understand that this is at best a stalling tactic and a greenwash to distract from the dangers of methane gas. Let’s stay focused on more realistic solutions for heating our homes and addressing the climate crisis like electrification.
I’ll be co-hosting a free webinar with Electrify Now on “The Future of Natural Gas” on Wednesday, September 22. Register and get more information here
Check out this in-depth report on methane gas released by a coalition of 62 organizations recently.
Related: Natural Gas Leaks Deadly For Trees (Video)
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Yup, Mullen Automotive [Nasdaq: MULN] is still here! And the EV company is defying the naysayers, reporting progress in EV sales, and reducing its monthly burn rate. Following Mullen Automotive’s significant strides in expanding its EV presence and improving its financial health in the last few weeks, Electrek caught up with David Michery, CEO and chairman of Mullen Automotive, who told us what trends he thinks 2025 will see for EV owners and others in the EV market.
After 2024 saw breakthroughs in tech, affordability, and adoption, Michery predicts this year will see even more disruption, transforming transportation and logistics on a massive scale. Here’s what to watch for this year.
EV total cost of ownership falls sharply
“Even if the federal EV tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act is repealed, EVs will become more affordable through state-level incentives, manufacturer subsidies, and private partnerships. The investment case for electrification is simply too strong for the private sector to ignore.
“Reduced battery costs, cheaper maintenance, and lower energy expenses will make EVs increasingly attractive to businesses and consumers. Charging infrastructure programs and fleet retrofitting will also help organizations navigate the upfront costs with the goal of long-term savings.
“The result is a financial tipping point: EVs will no longer just be environmentally compelling – they will also be the most cost-effective choice.”
Commercial EVs expand their use cases
“If 2024 was any indication, 2025 will bring new use cases for EVs. Transportation and delivery will likely continue to reign supreme, but the customizable nature of EVs means that we can expect more specialized use cases such as airport shuttles, university campus logistics, home services, and refrigerated delivery.
“Airports will adopt EV cargo vans for quieter, cleaner transit and delivery between terminals, while universities will electrify campus logistics to align with sustainability goals. Innovations in temperature-controlled EVs will expand the reach of refrigerated deliveries, cutting emissions in cold-chain logistics. And this is cause for celebration.
“New use cases mean more widespread adoption – and recognition that electrification is the best way forward.”
(Editor’s note: This is the business that Mullen Automotive is in, and he’s not wrong.)
2025 will be the year of the battery
“EV batteries are poised for immense improvement in the coming year. Solid-state polymer batteries – an innovation that significantly expands battery lifespan and thus widens range – are currently in road testing.
“Offering higher energy density and faster charging, these new batteries will make EVs more reliable and competitive with internal combustion vehicles as compared to other electric alternatives.
“Plus, better range and more efficient energy consumption will undoubtedly translate to lower maintenance costs for fleet owners.”
Read more: Mullen scores a solid, 3,000-unit electric truck order from Volt Mobility
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Environment
Toyota is still lagging behind EV rivals in the US as bZ4X sales finally start to pick up
Although Toyota bZ4X sales nearly doubled last year, the auto giant is still falling behind in the US EV market. Overseas rivals like Hyundai and Kia are lapping Toyota. Even other Japanese automakers, including Honda and Nissan, are selling more EVs in the US than Toyota.
Toyota bZ4X sales lagged behind US EV rivals in 2024
Toyota boasted that its 2024 electrified vehicle sales reached over 1 million in the US in 2024. However, that’s primarily thanks to its hybrid models.
With just 1,854 bZ4X models sold in December, Toyota’s 2024 total reached 18,570. Although that number is up 99% from the 9,329 sold in 2023, it’s still far behind the competition.
To put it in perspective, Honda, which began delivering its electric Prologue last March, sold over 33,000 models last year. In December, Honda sold nearly 7,900 Prologues alone. During the second half of 2024, Honda sold an average of over 5,000 electric SUVs per month.
Nissan also outsold Toyota with nearly 19,800 Ariya electric SUVs sold last year. Nissan’s decade-old LEAF secured another 11,226 sales in the US in 2024, up 57% year-over-year.
Kia’s first three-row electric SUV, the EV9, outsold the bZ4X last year despite a +$10,000 higher MSRP. After deliveries began in late 2023, Kia sold over 22,000 EV9 models in the US last year.
After setting new US sales records last year, Hyundai and Kia are aggressively aiming for more EV market share in 2025. Hyundai began production at its massive new EV plant in Georgia, where it will produce new EVs like the upgraded 2025 IONIQ 5 and three-row IONIQ 9.
With Kia building EV9 models at its West Point plant and the Genesis Electrified GV70 built in Alabama, Hyundai Motor has five EV models that qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit for the first time, which should boost demand further.
Toyota slashed 2025 bZ4X prices by $6,000 to make it more competitive. Starting at $37,070, the 2025 bZ4X undercuts the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 ($42,500) and Nissan Ariya ($39,770).
Although Honda has yet to release 2025 Prologue prices, it’s expected to start much higher. The 2024 Honda Prologue starts at $47,400.
Electrek’s Take
Like several others, Toyota pushed back major EV projects, including its first three-row electric SUV. The delay gave overseas rivals, like Hyundai and Kia, an opportunity, which they gladly took advantage of.
Toyota also scrapped plans to build new Lexus electric SUVs in North America. Instead, the new Lexus EV models will be imported from Japan.
The company is preparing to start battery production at its new $13.9 billion facility in NC, which should help ramp up EV sales. In the first half of 2026, it will also begin building the larger electric SUV at its Georgetown, Kentucky, plant.
The Japanese auto giant is still promising advanced new EV batteries are coming soon with significantly more range and faster charging at a lower cost. But when will they actually hit the market?
Toyota has been vowing to launch new EV battery technology for years. By 2027, the company plans to launch a pair of new Performance and Popularized batteries, which will enable a nearly 500-mile (800-km) WLTP range. In 2028, Toyota plans to launch solid-state EV batteries with mass production in 2030.
Will it be enough? Or is Toyota already too late to the party? Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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Volkswagen has identified a solution for its ID.4 recall and is ready to start producing post-recall ID.4s, with sales restarting now or soon at a dealership near you.
In September, VW identified a problem with its ID.4 EVs which resulted in a recall of almost 100k vehicles. Apparently, the door handles could leak and allow water into the circuit board controlling the handle, leading to the doors opening unexpectedly.
At the time, VW said the production halt could last until the beginning of next year (so, it’s just about on schedule) and resulted in about 200 workers being furloughed for the time being.
Now, three months later, the fix is ready and has been installed in some cars, with more heading out to dealers and being installed at VW’s factory in Tennessee as well.
Sales started back up this week, with dealerships applying the fix to some of their cars already. A local dealer told us that they’ve applied the fix to about 10% of their inventory so far, and that some cars have already been sold this week. So if you were looking for an ID.4, you should be able to find one in a local dealer now or soon.
The cars affected are model year 2021-2024 ID.4s. Owners should receive notifications from VW soon to get fixes applied to their vehicles – but there was never a stop-drive on the vehicles, so owners can continue driving their cars until the fix is applied.
Update: VW has now officially announced that the ID.4 is back on sale, with production starting in coming weeks “with the aim of re-instating the ID.4 to its prior position as one of the best-selling electric vehicles in the U.S. and Canada.”
We’ve also obtained a copy of the letter being sent out to owners, which claims the repair will take about 4 hours, free of charge.
You can arrange a repair by finding your local dealer on VW’s website.
Electrek’s Take
Prior to the recall, ID.4 sales had been down significantly for the year. Despite a big update to the 2024 model year vehicles which fixed some issues owners had and added a bunch of big improvements, the model seemed not to capture the imagination of the American public. Even though EV sales are rising, the ID.4 had experienced one of the highest drops in sales of any model.
But this is a bit puzzling, because the ID.4 is a competent vehicle. Especially after those aforementioned fixes, I was quite impressed by this model year. It’s a good choice for someone who just wants a reasonable vehicle with a good amount of space. And Electrek’s very own Michelle Lewis has one and loves it.
That said, three months always felt a little slow for this fix. While VW did say that the production pause and stop sale would last until the end of the year, it’s not like door handles are a new thing, and VW certainly has made plenty of vehicles over the years. We can’t help but wonder if the aforementioned down sales year might have contributed to a lack of urgency.
But, now that process is done and VW is ready to start 2025 strong with a car ready to go (and, as our local dealer reminded us, the ID.BUZZ just started selling last month, so now you’ve got multiple EV options from VW).
To contact a local dealer and see if they have any VW ID.4s ready to sell, feel free to use our link. You can also reach out about the ID.Buzz, if a quirky electric minivan is more your speed.
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