As Merkel bows out, Germany’s election race remains unclear with just hours left to run

Published

4 years ago

September 24, 2021

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The Hofbrauhaus in the heart of Munich is a huge building dedicated to the art of beer.

It’s been welcoming drinkers for 432 years, during which time Bavaria has been ruled variously by princes, emperors, kings, dukes, dictators and, latterly, a load of democrats.

The walls here have heard every grumble and every political aspiration. And now they seem to reverberate to a desire for…something.

“We need a lot of change because over the last 16 years, even though lots of things have happened, not a lot has changed in the culture of the country,” one drinker told us.

“Germany needs to think about lots of things, like climate change.”

Climate change is one of those topics you hear mentioned a lot in this election.

Ever since the floods that wreaked such damage a few months ago, the topic has crept up in every interview and every debate.

But the curiosity is that, for all the discussion, it’s still not clear whether voters really, truly care about climate change as much as they do about, say, income tax, the minimum wage or rent controls.

The Greens, for instance, are likely to enjoy the best result they’ve ever had in a federal election. But far from capitalising on the angst created by the floods, their polling is actually worse now than when water was cascading through so many houses.

Back in May, the Greens, and their young leader Annalena Baerbock, were the most popular party; now they’re running in third place.

So what’s going on? Michael Pahle is a working group leader at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He has watched the election with interest.

“The Green Party stands for change so when the election was a few months away, Germans embraced change as a concept and offered their support,” he told Sky News.

“But the closer we came to the election, it’s clearer that voting is actually a decision about what their lives will look like in the next four years so then they kind of stepped back into this old comfort zone of having stability and not embracing change as much.”

Mr Pahle told Sky News it was wholly predictable that, at a time of economic stability, people would think of stability. But he also raised the prospect that the Green Party might actually benefit from not winning, but instead playing a significant role in a coalition government.

“That’s definitely not their worst option,” he said. “They would have more responsibility, of course, if they led the government, but then they also have to make concessions.

“If they are in a coalition then they can push through their agenda, probably more than if they were the head of the government.”

Back in Munich, and we move across town.

Angela Merkel is back in Bavaria for a rally of her party, the CDU. Her successor as leader, Armin Laschet, arrives alongside her, but it’s obvious who carries the star quality.

Ms Merkel has the presence of someone who has bestrode the global stage; Mr Laschet, by contrast, looks slightly edgy and awkward.

When he took over as head of the CDU, Mr Laschet inherited a political golden ticket. The party’s alumni include some of the great names from German politics – Adenauer, Kohl, Schauble and, of course, Merkel.

And yet his campaign has stuttered. He was pictured, horribly, chuckling during a presidential speech to recognise victims of the floods. His performances during debates have sometimes seemed wooden.

Were it not for the fact that his chief rival, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, is another uncharismatic white man in his 60s, Mr Laschet’s failings may have appeared even more acute.

Yet it is Mr Scholz who leads, narrowly, as this race enters the home straight. We are bound to end up with another coalition, but the winner of the popular vote will probably end up as chancellor. Probably, but not definitely.

The bottom line is that nobody has really grasped this election, like a long-distance race where none of the runners wants to hit the front.

We are just hours from the end and, truly, we don’t know what’s going to happen. Mr Scholz and Mr Laschet, so often criticised for being dull, may just combine to create a thrilling denouement.

World

Trump’s USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Published

1 hour ago

July 1, 2025

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Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.

Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.

“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.

USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.

The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.

Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.

USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.

Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.

But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.

The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.

The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.

World

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

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4 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.

An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.

The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.

The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.

Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.

Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.

Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.

Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.

The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.

The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.

Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.

Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.

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Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Published

10 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.

The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.

On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”

At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.

The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.

An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.

She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.

The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.

An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.

Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.