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According to a new report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford, previous estimates about how quickly the price of renewables will fall have consistently underestimated reality (We think they are pointing their fingers at the International Energy Agency here.)

Here’s the first few paragraphs of the report:

“Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Most energy economy models have historically underestimated deployment rates for renewable energy technologies and overestimated their costs. The problems with these models have stimulated calls for better approaches and recent reports have made progress in this direction.

“Here we take a new approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that made reliable predictions when they were empirically tested on more than 50 technologies. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and find that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars (emphasis added) even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.

“We show that if solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers continue to follow their current exponentially increasing deployment trends for another decade, we achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within twenty-five years. In contrast, a slower transition (which involves deployment growth trends that are lower than current rates) is more expensive and a nuclear driven transition is far more expensive.

“If non-energy sources of carbon emissions such as agriculture are brought under control, our analysis indicates that a rapid green energy transition would likely generate considerable economic savings while also meeting the 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement target.

“Future energy system costs will be determined by a combination of technologies that produce, store and distribute energy. Their costs and deployment will change with time due to innovation, economic competition, public policy, concerns about climate change and other factors.”

“It’s not just good news for renewables. It’s good news for the planet,” co-author Matthew Ives, a senior researcher at the Oxford Martin Post-Carbon Transition Program, tells ArsTechnica. “The energy transition is also going to save us money. We should be doing it anyway.”

“Our approach is based on two key design principles: 1) include only the minimal set of variables necessary to represent most of the global energy system, and the most important cost and production dynamics, and 2) ensure all assumptions and dynamics are technically realistic and closely tied to empirical evidence. This means that we focus on energy technologies that have been in commercial use for sufficient time to develop a reliable historical record.

“We choose a level of model granularity well suited to the probabilistic forecasting methods used, i.e. one that allows accurate model calibration, and ensures overall cost reduction trends associated with cumulative production are captured for each technology. Our model design can be run on a laptop, is easy to understand and interpret, and allows us to calibrate all components against historical data so that the model is firmly empirically grounded. The historical data does not exist to do this on a more granular level.”

Omitted Technologies

“Consistent with our two design principles, we have deliberately omitted several minor energy technologies. Co-generation of heat, traditional biomass, marine energy, solar thermal energy, and geothermal energy were omitted either due to insufficient historical data or because they have not exhibited significant historical cost improvements, or both.

“Liquid biofuels were also excluded because any significant expansion would have high environmental costs. Finally, carbon capture and storage in conjunction with fossil fuels was omitted because i) it is currently a very small, low growth sector, ii) it has exhibited no promising cost improvements so far in its 50 year history, and iii) the cost of fossil fuels provides a hard lower bound on the cost of providing energy via fossil fuels with CCS. This means that within a few decades, electricity produced with CCS will likely not be competitive even if CCS is free.” (emphasis added)

Massive Storage Capacity

“Since renewables are intermittent, storage is essential. In the Fast Transition scenario we have allocated so much storage capacity using batteries and P2X fuels that the entire global energy system could be run for a month without any sun or wind. This is a sensible choice because both batteries and electrolyzers have highly favorable trends for cost and production.

“From 1995 to 2018 the production of lithium ion batteries increased at 30% per year, while costs dropped at 12% per year, giving an experience curve comparable to that of solar PV. Currently, about 60% of the cost of electrolytic hydrogen is electricity, and hydrogen is around 80% of the cost of ammonia, so these automatically take advantage of the high progress rates for solar PV and wind.”

Final Energy

“To understand these scenarios it is important to distinguish final energy — which is the energy delivered for use in sectors of the economy — from useful energy, which is the portion of final energy used to perform energy services, such as heat, light and kinetic energy.

“Fossil fuels tend to have large conversion losses in comparison to electricity, which means that significantly more final energy needs to be produced to obtain a given amount of useful energy. Switching to energy carriers with higher conversion efficiencies (e.g. moving to electric vehicles) significantly reduces final energy consumption.

“Our Fast Transition scenario assumes that eventually almost all energy services originate with electricity generated by solar PV and wind, making and burning P2X fuels or using batteries when it is impractical to use renewables directly. The Fast Transition substantially increases the role of electricity in the energy system.”

The INET report focuses mainly on the process of technological advancement, which is part of what has made renewables cheaper. Renewables have routinely performed beyond the expectations of previous papers. “They’ve been getting these forecasts wrong for quite some time,” Ives said. “You can see we’ve consistently broken through those forecasts again and again.”

Rather than a plateau on renewable energy costs, Ives said the greater likelihood is that the prices will decrease slower once things like solar and wind end up dominating the market. At that point, technological advances may very well still happen, but they might not be rolled out as frequently as they are now. “It’s the deployment that slows it down,” Ives says.

Michael Taylor, senior analyst at IRENA, agrees. He tells ArsTechnica his organization found that the cost reduction drivers — improved technology, supply chains, scalability, and manufacturing processes — for solar and wind are likely to continue at least for the next 10 to 15 years. With regard to previous forecasts, he says, “I would expect they’re overly pessimistic.”

Unforeseen issues such as the global pandemic and supply chain woes could slow the decline in the cost of renewables, as well as other barriers such as oil and gas subsidies, public opinion, permitting, and political considerations. “Just on purely economic grounds, there are increasing benefits to consumers to be had by accelerating the roll out of renewable power generation,” Taylor says. “We encourage policymakers to look very seriously at trying to remove the barriers that currently exist.”

The Takeaway

The report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is a breath of fresh air. In particular, it explodes all the tripe being trotted out by fossil fuel companies to justify the continued use of their products. Carbon Capture? Pure baloney, a chimera they can hide behind while the continue their relentless greenwashing campaigns.

INET envisions consumers saving trillions of dollars as renewable energy takes over from thermal generation. The bottom line is we must stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible if we want to keep the Earth habitable for humans. This report comes just in time for the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow. In a rational world, global leaders would seize upon it as justification for moving forward aggressively with favorable renewable energy policies.

That’s unlikely. Those political leaders are beholden to fossil fuel companies, so expect a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth as they try to spin their way out of the obvious. The only thing we as renewable energy advocates can hope for is that the price of renewables will get so low that anyone with the acumen of kumquat will have to recognize the truth. Ultimately, those free market imperatives reactionaries are so fond of will drive a stake through the heart of their beloved fossil fuel industry. We can’t wait!

 

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Why repowering wind farms is wind power’s next big thing

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Why repowering wind farms is wind power's next big thing

Renewables developer Exus Renewables North America is giving a $200 million upgrade to Somerset County, Pennsylvania’s 139 megawatt (MW) Twin Ridges Wind Farm – here’s why repowering projects like this are the future of the wind industry.

Wind energy repowering is all about breathing new life into older turbines or entire wind farms. By swapping out aging parts like turbines, blades, and nacelles for the latest tech, wind farms can see significant boosts in efficiency, power capacity, and overall lifespan. Other infrastructure and control systems can also get a second life, too.

Adding new components to existing infrastructure and grid connections mean it’s less expensive to extend the life of the wind farm with fewer resources. New components make the turbines less prone to breakdowns which means less maintenance, so there are fewer operational costs. Plus, a wind farm’s debt is usually paid off at around 10 years, and it qualifies for new tax credits and new financing at around that time. Existing wind farms often have power purchase agreements in place, and data companies are increasingly chasing power sources as demand grows.

Repowering Twin Ridges meant keeping all 68 towers and foundations while swapping out the nacelles and blades. Vestas, which has identified the repower market as a huge opportunity and engineered a solution that’s compatible with most turbines, supplied US-made nacelles, hubs, blades, and tower adaptors for the project. (Twin Ridges’ original supplier, RES, is no longer in business.)

Jim Spencer, CEO of Exus Renewables North America, said of Twin Ridges, “This upgrade will increase the power generation by 30%, which is a lot more power going into the grid. Repowering will allow it to use more of its allotted grid capacity since wind farms don’t operate at maximum capacity 100% of the time.”

Unlike a new wind farm, which comes online all at once, a repowered wind farm sees refurbished turbines turned on one at a time since the infrastructure is already in place. Out of its 68 upgraded turbines, Twin Ridges has brought 40 repowered turbines online, and a 41st turbine will soon follow.

Industry estimates suggest that up to 50 GW of US onshore wind capacity will be assessed for repowering in the next few years.

Read more: Renewables now make up 30% of US utility-scale generating capacity


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New Honda battery electric lawn mowers will be made in the USA

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New Honda battery electric lawn mowers will be made in the USA

Honda is set to introduce a full line of battery electric walk-behind consumer and zero turn electric riding lawnmowers to its US power equipment dealers for 2025.

Gas-powered lawn equipment is horrible for public health — so much so that a single two-strike leaf blower can produce significantly more harmful carbon emissions than a conventional car. That’s why a growing number of cities and states have passed regulations restricting the use of gas-powered lawn equipment.

As our own Jamie Dow put it, “It’s important to mention how horrendous gas lawn equipment is all the time, and how it’s often possible to get electric stuff for cheap because air quality districts know this is some of the lowest hanging fruit. The issue is that ‘small off-road engines‘ (SOREs) usually don’t include any sort of pollution controls, and are often dirtier two-stroke engines that create more power in a small package, but emit orders of magnitude more pollution in the form of unburned particulates from the incomplete combustion process they undergo when compared to four-stroke engines.”

With that in mind, then, we have to consider the recent announcement that Honda will be offering its battery electric HRX, HRN, and HRC walk-behind consumer lawn mowers and a zero-turn-radius (ZTR) commercial electric riding lawn mower at select Honda Power Equipment dealers nationwide in 2025.

Honda electric lawn mower line

Screencap, via Honda Power Equipment.

That’s bigger news than you might think, too. That’s because Honda actually stopped producing new lawn mowers in 2023 amid tightening emissions regulations amid shifting customer preferences. The new battery-powered lineup will, therefor, re-establish Honda dealers as full-line outdoor power equipment (OPE) stores while, at the same time, supporting the company’s electrification vision.

“With the new line of Honda battery-powered lawn mowers, we will deliver the exceptional ownership experience that our customers have come to expect while providing lawn care options for a variety of users, conditions and applications,” says Mark Kohls, vice president of Honda Power Sports & Products at American Honda. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is only part of the challenge, as battery-powered power products must meet Honda standards for rugged performance, ease of use and comfortable operation to meet the high expectations of our residential and commercial customers.”

Honda ZTR electric riding mower

On the commercial front, Honda’s new ZTR mowers are powered by 5 separate, 48V brushless electric motors — 3 motors under the machine’s 60″ cutting deck (12″ wider than the Kubota‘s) that each power a rotating set of twin blades, and 2 drive wheel motors to maneuver the mower with precise control. The company says it’s engineered to, “stand up to the rigors of commercial landscaping, with power to mow at maximum efficiency while maintaining pristine cut quality.”

Honda says the ZTR’s six 48-volt lithium-ion battery packs offer enough power to mow up to 15 acres of lawn on a single charge, and can be recharged in under 6 hours on a 220V outlet.

The new ZTR will be the first electrified power product produced at Honda North Carolina Manufacturing (NCM) facility in Swepsonville, and will be assembled using both “using “domestic and globally sourced parts.”

“Technology is aggressively shaping the future of the world, including the landscaping industry, and trends show that buyers are integrating battery-powered products into their fleets,” said Kohls. “Honda Sports & Products is providing the battery-powered Honda ZTR lawn mower to introduce flexibility into the fleet, help increase operating efficiency and comfort, address labor shortages and support the sustainability goals of commercial landscapers.”

No word, yet, on pricing.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Honda Power Equipment, via Power Progress.

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Black Friday sales take $4,000 off EcoFlow power stations and up to $1,350 off e-bikes from ENGWE, Xtracycle, more

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Black Friday sales take ,000 off EcoFlow power stations and up to ,350 off e-bikes from ENGWE, Xtracycle, more

We’ve got a ton more Black Friday sales for you in today’s Green Deals, with EcoFlow being the first of the major backup power brands to launch its savings event and offering up to $4,000 in savings on units like the new DELTA Pro 3 Portable Power Station that is at a new $2,789 low. There’s also ENGWE’s sale that has a bunch of savings options too, which has lowered the L20 2.0 e-bike to $699, among others. Xtracycle has taken up to $1,350 off its cargo e-bike bundles starting from $3,999, while Greenworks’ 80V Venture Commuter and Mountain e-bikes are at some of their lowest rates from $1,281. We even have a surprise last-minute entry that was too sweet to pass up as four Juiced e-bikes are getting up to $1,899 taken off their price tags in a massive clearance sale, dropping them to new low prices across the selection that start from $1,300. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals are in the links at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s early Black Friday savings from Velotric, the limited Hiboy EX6 e-bike low, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

EcoFlow Black Friday sale drops 4,096Wh DELTA Pro 3 power station to new $2,789 low (Reg. $3,699)

EcoFlow has launched its early Black Friday sale through November 20 which is taking up to $4,000 off its lineup of power stations, bundle packages, and accessories. One of its newest releases, the DELTA Pro 3 Portable Power Station is now down at $2,789.07 shipped. Normally fetching $3,699, we’ve only seen a few varying discounts since releasing back in July, with it launching at $3,199, and subsequent discounts only bringing costs down to $3,399 at best. This sale though is giving folks the best rate to date as it falls $700 from its price tag and lands at a new all-time low price – but that’s not where the savings stop, as you’ll be getting an additional $210 (7%) off thanks to the bonus savings we discuss more below.

Now, as is often the case with EcoFlow’s big sales, there are some great additional savings that you can get right now. Aside from double points for members and a 30-day price-matching guarantee, you’ll also benefit from extra savings based on reaching certain order thresholds. For orders between $1,000 to $1,999 you’ll receive an additional 5% discount, while orders between $2,000 and $4,999 will receive 7% off discounts, and orders over $5,000 will receive a further 9% taken off the tag. Discounts will be automatically applied in your cart.

EcoFlow’s DELTA Pro 3 power station provides a 4,096Wh LiFePO4 battery capacity that you can expand further up to 48,000Wh, while also dishing output power up to 4,000W – surging to 6,000W and also expandable up to 12,000W when you have three power stations connected together. There’s a massive variety of recharging methods for this model, with seven solo-source options and 18 combination options. A standard wall outlet, for example, gets the battery back to 80% in just 50 minutes, with other options including solar (2,600W input max), EV, automotive cigarette outlets, dual PV charging, and so much more.

Through the EcoFlow app you’ll have full smart controls available via Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, while the 14 output ports offer plenty of ways to power and recharge your devices/appliances. This is one of three models (alongside the DELTA 3 Plus and RIVER 3 stations) that boasts the brand’s X-Core 3.0 tech, an integrated architecture system that is designed to offer far superior host safety, performance, and intelligence improvement. This upgrade also boosts its surge power rating for your more demanding appliances too, as well as increasing charging speeds, letting it run quieter and cooler than previous models, improving the battery management system and its overall lifespan, and more.

EcoFlow early Black Friday DELTA 3 Pro bundle deals:

EcoFlow’s early Black Friday DELTA power station deals:

EcoFlow’s early Black Friday RIVER power station deals:

EcoFlow’s best early Black Friday DELTA series bundle deals:

EcoFlow’s best early Black Friday accessory deals:

You can view all the main featured deals from EcoFlow’s Black Friday sale on the landing page here, or if you instead want to browse the sale’s offerings in their entirety, check out everything discounted here.

EcoFlow Black Friday

ENGWE’s Class 3 entry-level L20 2.0 e-bike hits $699 in Black Friday sales + bonus savings

ENGWE’s Black Friday sale has kicked into gear through December 2, taking up to $600 off e-bikes and also offering discounted accessories, free gear, and multiple chances to get your order paid back in full (more info below). A notable price cut from previous sales is the entry-level L20 2.0 e-bike that is going for $699 shipped. It’s normally priced at $999 since it was released in March, with the lowest we saw it go being a fall to $659 at the end of summer. Since summer’s end, it’s kept at above $799, most recently during the previous Halloween sale, but that price is getting beaten out today with a total $300 markdown that lands it at the second-lowest price we have tracked – just $50 above the all-time low from summer. Learn more about the sale’s bonus savings and this e-bike below, or you can learn about it in our hands-on review.

For all the orders placed during this sale, ENGWE will have four different drawing periods (Nov 11, 18, 25, and Dec 2) with two winners in each – all of them receiving a full refund on their orders. Along with this, ENGWE is also giving away a free accessory mystery box with every order over $600 that gives you free gear worth up to $109.

One of the newer models coming out of ENGWE, the L20 2.0 e-bike makes for a solid entry-level commuter that will weigh far lighter on your wallet than many other brands. Its 750W geared hub motor provides a 28 MPH top speed when utilizing the pedal assistance, and 20 MPH speeds cruising on pure electric power. The 52V 676Wh battery delivers a range of up to 68 to 80 miles on a single charge (depending on conditions), while only using the throttle cuts that down to around 28 miles, which is still plenty to get you around.

It has a folding frame, making its off-riding storage and transport an easier task, plus is weighs just about 68 pounds making it easy to manage for most folks living in apartment buildings. And for the price, it also comes with some decent additional features, like the mechanical disc brakes on 180 mm rotors, a rear cargo rack, integrated head/tail/brake LED lights, front fork and post suspension, a SHIMANO 7-speed derailleur, puncture-resistant fat tires, and a color LED display.

Best ENGWE Black Friday e-bike deals:

  • Engwe EP-2 Pro e-bike: $949 (Reg. $1,498)
    • Up to 75-mile range
    • with extra battery (up to 150-mile range)
  • M20 Dual-Suspension e-bike: $899 (Reg. $1,199)
    • up to 75-mile range
    • dual-battery option $200 more
  • X20 Triple-Suspension Folding e-bike: $999 (Reg. $1,599)
    • Up to 93-mile range
    • Dual-battery options start for $100 more
  • M20 2.0 Full-Suspension Double-Range e-bike: $1,199 (Reg. $1,499)
    • with dual batteries for up to 150-mile range
    • single battery model $200 cheaper
  • LE20 Step-Thru Cargo e-bike: $1,249 (Reg. $1,499)
    • Up to 109-mile max range
  • And much more…
Xtracycle Stoker cargo e-bike

Save $1,350 on Xtracycle’s Stoker off-road cargo e-bike with free gear at $3,999 in Black Friday sales

Xtracycle has begun its early Black Friday sales through November 18, offering up to $1,350 in savings on three different e-bike bundles. Among the three discounted models here, the prices start lowest for the brand’s Stoker Off-Road Cargo e-bike which is down at $3,999 shipped. This higher-end model normally sits at its $4,499 price tag most of the time, not seeing as many discounts as some of its higher-priced counterparts, though we did see a similar bundle offer back during the brand’s Labor Day sales. This month’s sale is giving us a bigger bundle than previously seen, as the included Everyday Rider Bundle also gives you an everyday bike pack, a 40L cargo bag that attaches to the bike’s frame, a padded cushion for passengers, a Hooptie rail system, and a Snackbar rail system – plus, you’ll also be getting free shipping and local assembly fees waived, giving you a total of $1,350 in savings ($260 more value than Labor Day).

The Xtracycle Stoker e-bike is an all-terrain cargo-hauling model that can traverse streets, trails, and more with ease. A Shimano STEPS EP-8 motor and a 630Wh battery reside within its chromoly steel frame, providing a 20 MPH top speed with its pedal assistance system (without any throttle) for up to 60 miles on a full charge. The terrain isn’t much of a concern thanks to the 24-inch NICA’GNAR Cargo Tires which come with fenders over each, and it has 4-piston hydraulic disc brakes for reliable stopping power the moment it is needed. The entire bike is rated for a total 400-pound payload, coming with an integrated rear cargo rack that only has its capabilities bolstered by the free gear. Among its other features, there’s the Sram NX11 X-HORIZON derailleur, integrated LED headlights and taillights, and an E-series cycling computer that gives you easy handlebar access to controlling your settings as you ride.

More Xtracycle early Black Friday e-bike deals:

  • RFA Urban Scout e-bike: $4,499 (Reg. $4,999)
    • 20 to 28 MPH top speeds for up to 60 miles
    • comes with $600 in free gear + free shipping/local assembly ($200 value)
  • Swoop Family Cargo e-bike: $4,499 (Reg. $4,999)
    • 20 to 28 MPH top speeds for up to 60 miles
    • comes with $650 in free gear + free shipping/local assembly ($200 value)
JetCurrent Pro

Get up to $1,899 in massive savings on Juiced e-bikes at lowest prices ever in clearance sale starting from $1,300

Coming to us through Velowave Bikes, we’re seeing a large Black Friday Clearance sale taking up to $1,899 off a collection of Juiced e-bikes at some of the best rates we have tracked to date – including the brand’s newest JetCurrent Pro Foldable e-bike at $1,700 shipped, for example. It’s no secret that Juiced has been having financial troubles this year, with sales running dry over 2024 and folks seeing fewer and fewer differing offers coming from the brand while the stock has not been replenished after models sell out. Today though, thanks to Velowave’s warehouse, you can now score major savings on some of the popular models that bolstered Juiced’s reputation at the lowest prices we have ever seen, particularly its newest model. Head below for pricing.

Juiced e-bike clearance sale deals:

EcoFlow Black Friday

Greenworks’ 80V Venture 27.5-inch commuter e-bike hits new $1,520 low

Amazon is offering rare discounts on a pair of Greenworks’ Venture series e-bikes, with the Greenworks 80V Venture 27.5-inch Commuter e-bike for $1,519.99 shipped. Normally going for $1,900 since first releasing at the start of the year, we’ve only seen one previous discount on this model, which dropped costs to $1,615 back in February. It’s been keeping to its MSRP all this time since but is finally seeing its price come down thanks to the 20% markdown here that slashes $380 off the price tag and lands it at a new all-time low. It also beats out Greenworks’ direct site, where it’s still sitting at full price.

This 80V commuter e-bike is one of Greenworks’ new Venture series models, designed to expand the brand’s versatile battery ecosystem, which is standard across most of its tools. The 350W brushless rear hub motor (that peaks at 500W) is powered by the brand’s included 4.0Ah battery (and you’ll also get a rapid charger) that can also be switched out with other tools/batteries you may already own. Utilizing three different forms of pedal assistance as you ride, you’ll be able to cruise around at 20 MPH top speeds for up to 22 miles on a single 40-minute charge. It also features a front suspension fork, an adjustable suspension seat, a 7-speed Shimano shifter, 27.5-inch Kenda tires, an LED headlight, a rear cargo rack, as well as an LCD display paired with a simple control panel along the handlebars.

If you would prefer an electric mountain bike instead, Amazon is also offering the Greenworks 80V Venture 26-inch All-Terrain Fat Tire e-bike for $1,280.99 shipped, down from $2,100. This model sports a larger 500W brushless rear hub motor (peaking at 750W) to better support you through off-road travels, providing the same speed and mileage as the above model with its three pedal assist modes. You’re getting the same general features too, aside from the 26-inch by 4-inch all-terrain Kenda fat tires and minus the rear cargo rack.

Best Black Friday e-bike deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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