Markets fret as consumers and investors lose faith in central banks keeping a lid on inflation
The price of natural gas is soaring – and both equity and bond markets are again fretting about surging inflation.
The cost of wholesale gas for next-day delivery in the UK today hit an all-time high of £3.55 per therm (one therm is equal to 100 cubic feet of natural gas), a rise of 27%, meaning the price has doubled in a week.
The immediate upshot is that more “challenger” household energy suppliers, who tend to buy their gas on the spot market rather than in advance, are likely to topple over.
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This is not just an issue in the UK.
Natural gas prices are rising across Europe due to a combination of liquefied natural gas cargoes being diverted to Asia to meet growing demand there, lower supplies from Russia and lower output from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
The United States is also seeing a surge in natural gas prices.
Stock markets have suffered several bouts of unease this year amid signs that inflation is taking off.
There was a notable sell-off early in May reflecting a rise in the price of commodities such as copper and the cost of shipping, exacerbated in March by the stranding in the Suez Canal of Ever Given, a container ship en route from China.
On that occasion, markets took at face value the insistence of central bankers such as Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank and Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England that the inflation starting to appear was simply “transitory”, a reflection of surging demand as economies re-opened after the pandemic.
The standing of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal exacerbated factors behind a sell-off earlier this year
Investors around the world are now taking the threat more seriously.
For example, in Japan, the world’s fourth largest energy importer, the Nikkei 225 has fallen in each of the last eight sessions, taking it into correction territory.
Similarly, the Dax in Germany is down to a level last seen in May, while the Nasdaq – which is full of tech stocks which tend to move in close correlation to expected movements in interest rates – fell this week to a level last seen in June.
The anxiety about inflation is playing out most markedly in the sovereign debt markets.
The yield on 10-year UK government gilts (the yield on a bond rises as the price falls) has surged from 0.621% at the start of September to 1.15% – a level not seen since May 2019 – today.
In the same period, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen from 1.307% to 1.552%, while yields on Treasuries of other durations have also risen.
Several things have changed since May.
The first and most obvious is that the price of crude oil has continued to grind higher.
The Nasdaq has fallen to levels last seen in June
In May, during the last inflation-inspired stock market squalls, a barrel of Brent Crude traded at between $64-$70 a barrel.
This month, so far, it has traded in a range between $77-83 a barrel.
The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, has seen an even sharper move higher and is now trading at a level last seen in November 2014.
That is starting to feed into inflation expectations – something central bankers everywhere watch warily because it usually tends to feed into higher wage demands.
For example, two weeks ago, the latest survey of inflation expectations carried out by the investment bank Citi and the pollsters YouGov found that the British public is expecting inflation to hit 4.1% over the next year.
It is a similar picture elsewhere.
The latest survey from the University of Michigan, which is closely watched by US policymakers, this week pointed to rising inflation expectations among American consumers.
And a market measurement of inflation expectations among consumers in the eurozone – a part of the world that during the last decade has had to worry more about deflation, or falling prices, than inflation – this week hit its highest level for six years.
The price of crude oil has continued to grind higher
In other words, consumers and investors in the US, the UK and the eurozone appear to be losing faith in the ability of their central banks to keep a lid on the cost of living.
That belief is entirely rational if, for example, you are a British motorist who has spent hours during the last couple of weeks trying to find petrol or, for example, you are an American consumer looking at big increases in the price of your weekly grocery shop.
What is particularly interesting is that a number of so-called “trimmed mean” inflation measures, which strip out the more extreme price changes of items in the inflationary “basket”, suggest the headline rate of inflation in the US is being artificially depressed by big drops in items such as air fares and hotel rooms.
They imply that underlying inflation – that element of inflation that cannot simply be explained away by pandemic-influenced levels of supply and demand – is actually much higher.
The third factor is that some investors are now starting to think seriously about “stagflation” – the ghastly combination of stagnant growth and inflation last seen in the 1970s.
Google searches for the term “stagflation” have in the last week hit their highest level since July 2008, when the global financial crisis was getting under way.
Now, there are several good reasons to argue that we are not in for a re-run of the 1970s, not least the fact that the world is less dependent on oil than it was then and the fact that the trades unions – in Britain at least – are not as powerful as they were then.
But such searches do point to a change of sentiment among not only investors but the wider public.
British motorists have spent hours stuck in petrol queues
There is every reason to think that inflation may well rise in coming weeks and months.
A clutch of UK companies, including the car and aerospace parts supplier Melrose, the bakery chain Greggs, the furniture and floorcoverings retailer ScS and the online fashion retailer Boohoo have all in the last week highlighted labour shortages, supply chain issues and rising input costs.
And that is likely to feed into higher bills for consumers.
Petrol prices are already at their highest level for eight years.
The increase in the energy price cap this week will result in higher household energy bills for 15 million UK households.
And recent rises in the price of a number of agricultural commodities in recent weeks mean that food price increases are looming.
Further eating away at the ability of consumers to spend will be next year’s increases in national insurance.
In London, meanwhile, nearly 350,000 households and businesses are about to fall foul of Mayor Sadiq Khan’s extension of his ultra low emissions zone, obliging them to either replace their vehicle at vast expense or pay a £12.50 daily fine – again carrying the same effect as inflation.
In short, there are a lot of reasons why consumers and businesses alike have good reason to believe that current levels of inflation are not just transitory, but more deep-seated.
The Bank of England – along with its counterparts around the world – has its work cut out to persuade them otherwise.
Global stock markets are seeing sharp declines and bitcoin has lost this year’s gains as worries intensify that the AI (artificial intelligence) boom has become a bubble fit to burst.
A small tear has certainly appeared in US tech stocks over the past week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing below a key technical indicator for the first time since late April on Monday.
Key worries include not only high valuations but also vast investment spending in the AI space harming and delaying investor returns.
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Sharp stock market falls were seen across large parts of Asia and Europe following the retreat on Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed more than 3% while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.7%.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 was down by just over 1% while Germany’s DAX and the CAC in Paris were 1.2% and 1.3% lower in early afternoon dealing.
Nerves are jangling over tech as the market awaits financial results from Nvidia on Wednesday night.
The stock market wobble began on Wall Street and many analysts say it’s a healthy move. Pic: AP
They are likely to be crucial in determining the path for shares ahead.
The world’s largest company by market value is the beating heart of Wall Street’s artificial intelligence boom and any sign of slowdowns, for both revenues and profits, will be catalysts for further sell-offs.
Fears have been growing for months that record values are overdone.
Stocks linked to AI suffered particularly on Monday, building on declines seen last week, and futures indicated more pain to come when trading begins in the US, though drops were expected to be limited.
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Financial analysts said baskets of top AI-linked stocks had now entered so-called correction territory, falling more than 10% in short order this month.
Others pointed to an impact on confidence in the crypto market.
Bitcoin, which hit a $125,000 spot rate level only last month, stood at $91,000 on Tuesday.
It had begun the year around the $94,000 level.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment for Interactive Investor, said: “This year was meant to be the year of the bitcoin bulls supported by a highly crypto-friendly administration in the White House and Trump’s ‘less is more’ approach towards regulation.
“However, fears of an AI bubble and concerns about the market’s heavy dependence on a handful of tech giants have caused investors to dial back their exposure to speculative assets such as bitcoin.
“There’s a general sense of nervousness that has captured the market mood lately and bitcoin appears to be in the firing line.”
Wider sentiment has also been harmed by weaker bets on the prospects for a further interest rate cut by the US central bank next month.
Many financial analysts described the stock market shifts as a healthy correction, given all the uncertainties which include the possibility of a US court ruling against Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs regime ahead.
Mike Gallagher, director of research at Continuum Economics, told Sky’s US partner CNBC that the market action implies equities could fall about 5% from recent highs – or “a bit more”.
“There’s some things coming over the horizon that make you want to take a bit of risk off the table,” he told the channel’s Squawk Box Europe show.
“So, part of it is just natural pocket taking, part of it is thinking, ‘well, is the macro story going to be perfect? No, it’s not.”
He concluded: “To get a major sell-off, you may need major bad news, and that we haven’t actually got to that point yet.”
In the hour after Wall Street opened, the tech company-heavy Nasdaq Composite had dropped nearly 1.8%.
The S&P 500 US index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable, lost more than 1% and the index of 30 major companies listed on US stock exchanges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), dropped 1.3%.
A crackdown on online pricing has seen investigations opened into eight companies, with a further 100 facing warnings over their conduct.
The competition watchdog said it was formally examining practices at StubHub, viagogo, AA Driving School, BSM Driving School, Gold’s Gym, Wayfair, Appliances Direct and Marks Electrical.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said the 100 other companies, which it did not identify, were getting letters outlining concerns about additional fees and sales tactics.
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The action against StubHub and viagogo – part of the same company after a 2021 merger – was revealed as the government reportedly prepares to separately confirm a ban on the resale of tickets for live events above their face value.
It is part of a long-threatened crackdown on touts to shield consumers from rip-off prices.
The regulator’s separate action falls under the new Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act which gives it additional powers to protect consumers.
The CMA said StubHub and viagogo were under review “regarding the mandatory additional charges applied when consumers buy tickets – and whether or not these fees are included upfront”.
The AA Driving School and BSM Driving School were being investigated over their “presentation of mandatory fees on these sites”, the CMA said, “specifically, whether these fees are included in the total price the consumer sees at the beginning of the purchase process.”
Gold’s Gym is under investigation over its presentation of a one-off joining fee for its annual membership, and whether the way it presents this fee breaks the law.
It explained that the examination of homeware retailers Wayfair, Appliances Direct, and Marks Electrical was related to whether their time-limited sales “ended when they said they would, or whether customers are being automatically opted in to purchasing additional services”.
Commenting on the CMA’s action an AA Driving School spokesperson said: “We are comfortable that the £3 booking fee for lessons is already transparent and in line with the CMA’s rules and are more than happy to additionally notify customers earlier in the journey as well, which we have already done.”
The other companies were yet to comment.
The CMA’s first major act under the new digital market rules was to give itself special oversight over Apple and Google.
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The CMA’s so-called “strategic market status” rulings mean both companies will face specific obligations to limit their dominance in smartphone and tablet operating systems (iOS and Android respectively), app distribution and browsers.
Commenting on its latest inquiry, CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said: “At a time when household budgets are under constant pressure and we’re all hunting for the best deal possible, it’s crucial that people are able to shop online with confidence, knowing that the price they see is the price they’ll pay, and any sales are genuine.
“Whether you’re spending your hard-earned cash on concert tickets or driving lessons, joining a gym or buying furniture and appliances for your home, you deserve a fair deal.
“It’s our job to protect consumers from misleading prices and illegal pressure selling and today marks an important milestone as we take action across the economy to make sure businesses do the right thing by their customers.”
“Since the launch of the new regime, we’ve been working hard to help businesses understand the law. But alongside supporting businesses to comply, we’ve always been clear that we will take swift action where we suspect potentially serious breaches of the law.
“This is just the start of our work. Any businesses who break consumer law should be in no doubt we will stamp out illegal conduct and protect the interests of consumers and fair-dealing businesses.”
Rubbish will continue rotting in the streets of Birmingham for months, union chiefs have warned, after more workers voted to join industrial action.
Agency workers employed by Job&Talent are now joining the dispute for the first time, with the Unite union blaming “an epidemic of bullying, harassment and intimidation”.
And with workers voting to extend the already months-long strike, the union says bins could go uncollected beyond next year’s local elections in May.
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (centre left) on the picket line in Tyseley, Birmingham, to support striking bin workers. Pic: PA
It comes after footage obtained by Sky News captured a manager from Job&Talent warning agency staff that those who join the strike would be blacklisted by the council.
In the clip, he says: “Those people that do decide to join the picket line, then the council have confirmed to us that they are not going to get a permanent job.”
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham added: “This is a real escalation in the dispute with agency workers now joining picket lines due to the terrible way they have been treated by Job&Talent and Birmingham council.
“The council is spending a fortune it doesn’t have on a dispute that could easily be resolved by agreeing a fair deal for workers.
“Unite does what it says on the trade union tin; we are totally committed to fighting for the jobs, pay and conditions of all members.
“Agency and directly-employed workers alike in Birmingham council’s refuse service have the union’s complete and utter support.”
Striking refuse workers outside Perry Barr depot in Birmingham. Pic: PA
A spokesperson for Birmingham City Council said: “While we are disappointed the dispute has not been resolved as Unite has rejected all our offers, we are continuing to make regular waste collections and our contingency plan is working.
“We have been collecting an average of approximately 1,330 tonnes of kerbside waste every day, more than we did prior to industrial action, and over the last six months we have collected over 100,000 tonnes of kerbside waste.
“There has been a 22 per cent increase in tonnage of waste collected per employee and a 52 per cent improvement regarding missed collections.
“A small number of agency staff are in a separate dispute with Job&Talent. The city council has contingency plans and will continue to look to maintain residents with a minimum of one collection a week.
“Meanwhile we continue to move forward with the service improvements that are long overdue and that our residents need.”
Uncollected refuse bags in the Aston area of Birmingham. Pic: PA
The council also said it would not tolerate blacklisting, and had investigated the matter, but concluded no blacklisting had taken place.
In a statement last week, Job&Talent responded to the leaked footage.
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The statement read: “Job&Talent is aware of a short video clip circulating online which shows a Job&Talent manager speaking to agency workers at one of the city’s refuse depots.
“The comments made in the recording were part of a longer discussion and do not reflect the position of Job&Talent.
“We do not engage in or condone any form of blacklisting, and no worker is or would be denied employment opportunities on the basis of lawful participation in industrial action.”
Unite said Job&Talent workers would be able to join the picket line from 1 December.
Bin workers have been locked in a standoff with the council over proposed pay cuts for most of the year.
Union bosses say council plans will leave 171 workers £8,000 worse off a year.
Collections have been disrupted since January, but the row descended into an all-out strike in March.
Uncollected refuse bags in the Sparkhill area of Birmingham. Pic: PA
The council soon declared a major incident and rubbish has continued to pile up across the city as the dispute continues.
Unite claims there have been no formal negotiations over ending the dispute since May.
The union’s lead officer, Onay Kasab, said: “Residents of Birmingham will be rightly concerned to see that the misery of bin strikes can continue through Christmas, New Year and beyond May’s local elections but the council is solely responsible for the ongoing dispute.
“Unite remains fully committed to return to meaningful negotiations to secure a fair deal for affected workers while also ensuring the endemic bullying culture and threats of blacklisting are stamped out.”
In a statement, Job&Talent said: “We acknowledge the ballot outcome and will continue working closely with our workers to address any concerns.
“The result reflects only a small portion of our overall workforce.
“As addressed previously, Job&Talent remains firmly committed to operating with transparency, integrity, and full compliance with employment laws.”
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