Sharp surge in energy prices threatens economic recovery and is already slowing growth

Published

4 years ago

October 12, 2021

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Woman pumps gas outside of Wawa storefront

Saul loeb

Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out.

There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession.

Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

“Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. “The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth.”

“We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth,” he added. “It’s not at a point where we’re warning about recession, but it’s at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way.”

American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January.

“We’re looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range … We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go … to negative growth,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle.

Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

“What’s different about this is normally it’s oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it’s the tail that’s being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal.”

Trouble brewing in energy markets

Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing.

Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.

Coal prices have also been rising and supplies are short, creating a power supply crunch in China. The country burns coal to generate electricity, but the inventory at its power plants faced a 10-year low in August. That has also increased the demand for natural gas.

“While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geopolitical tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, said in a recent note.

Economists say the rise in energy prices would have to be sharper and much more prolonged to cause a recession.

Bernstein energy analysts looked at past periods where prices rose sharply, and found that recessions followed periods where energy costs were at 7% of global GDP, as they reached in October.

They note the probability of recession rises when the energy costs stay above that level for a period, greater than a year.

“While the recent spike in energy costs may prove transient, a protracted period of energy costs [greater than a year] or further rise in oil to over US$100/bbl could trigger a slowdown in global economic growth as disposable income gets squeezed,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

Even though the share of energy costs is the highest in nearly a decade, on an annual basis it is still 5.2% of GDP so far in 2021, and that is not yet a dangerous level, they added.

“Annual energy costs as a percentage of GDP are above the 30-year average of 4.4%, but below that of 1979 or 2008 when annual energy costs reached over 7% of GDP,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “If energy prices rises prove to be transient, then the risk of an energy induced recession remains low.”

U.S. as a producer

Changes in the U.S. energy industry over the past two decades have provided some insulation from some of the current global energy crisis.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the hit from an energy price surge would not be all negative, since the U.S. is now a large energy producer. The U.S. produces about 11.3 million barrels a day, and exports oil and refined products.

Even with its huge production, the U.S. remains an importer of crude, bringing in an average 3.8 million barrels a day over four weeks, according to the latest Energy Information Administration weekly data.

The U.S. is providing natural gas to Europe and Asia, in the form of LNG exports, but U.S. gas prices are tied more to the domestic market and have been elevated because U.S. supplies remain lower than normal for this time of year.

Zandi said the dominance of the U.S. energy industry also has a positive impact on energy-producing parts of the economy as prices rise.

“That doesn’t mean that higher energy prices under certain scenarios wouldn’t cause a recession,” he said. “It’s just much less likely, and it would take much higher prices than it has in the past.”

Zandi said every penny increase in the cost of a gallon of gas costs U.S. consumers $1 billion. When it rises $1, as it has in the last year, that’s about $100 billion.

Another $1 jump would be harmful.

“That’s $100 billion, just a half percent of GDP. It would do damage. It would ding the economy, but I don’t think it would derail it,” he said. “If it went to $5.25, that’s $200 billion. That’s a percent of GDP. If energy prices are rising like that it’s likely other prices are rising.”

The immediate impact of higher energy costs is higher inflation, which creates a drag on consumer spending.

Kasman said the increase in energy prices, as of last week, would add about 2.5% to the consumer price index in the fourth quarter, if prices remain at that level. That could translate to a drag of a half percentage point or more on GDP, he noted.

“That is not small, but it’s not a recession,” he said. Kasman said he expects a pretty strong global economy next year, but the higher energy costs do raise concerns there could be an even big enough drag on purchasing power and that could chip away at growth.

Kasman said the impacts gets worse, the higher prices go. JPMorgan economists ran an analysis where they projected another 50% jump in energy prices.

“In this scenario, in which crude oil prices move quickly above US$100/bbl, the shock to US incomes is very large — as CPI inflation is pushed up by 10%-pts annualized — nearly twice the impact we estimate for the Euro area,” they said in a note. “While this scenario does not appear likely, it is important to recognize the threat posed by the combination of supply shocks now buffeting the global economy.”

JPMorgan forecasts fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.5%, and now expects the third quarter grew at a 4% pace, down from an earlier forecast of 8%. The firm expects average growth of 3.5% next year. They also forecast CPI gains to average more than 4% during the second half of the year.

CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

Environment

Gogoro goes affordable with new Ezzy battery-swapping scooter

Published

2 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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Gogoro goes affordable with new Ezzy battery-swapping scooter

Taiwanese smart-scooter pioneer Gogoro is taking a step into more accessible territory with its newest model, the Ezzy. The company hopes to leverage its massive lead in battery-swapping technology while also bringing its smart scooters to a broader audience by lowering its price point.

Designed as a no-frills, budget-friendly ride that doesn’t skimp on modern conveniences, Ezzy is priced around NT$59,980 (around US $2,000). Once you add in the government subsidies from its native Taiwan, that price drops below NT$30,000 (around US $1,000). For Gogoro, this is the smartscooter distilled to its essential core: practical, connected, and ready for daily life.

The Ezzy looks like it is trying to build on Gogoro’s success with its 2024 Jego launch, the company’s previous forray into lower cost electric scooters. The Jego was a massive success and wound up resulting in around 40% of the company’s sales. Now the Ezzy looks to keep the good vibes rolling in a sleek, compact, and intuitive package.

The scooter features a rounded, minimalist body with a durable front panel and straightforward controls. Practicality is the guiding principle: a 68 cm (27 inch) long seat, spacious footwell, and a 28 liter (7.4 gallon) under-seat storage compartment, which the company says is large enough for two helmets – if they’re a 3/4 and a half helmet. Put it all together, and the features sound like they should make the Ezzy ideal for urban errands or weekend jaunts. Add in a built-in cupholder and flip-out footrests, and you’ve got a scooter designed to seamlessly slot into everyday routines with one or two riders aboard.

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The design is cute, but it’s under the panels where Gogoro usually tries to set itself apart. Ezzy is powered by a new hub motor capable of speeds up to 68 km/h (42 mph), high enough for city traffic while keeping maintenance low. The last time I was scootering around in Taipei, those speeds felt like plenty on the congested streets.

And while Gogoro’s scooters have long been impressive, the most important part of the company’s offerings isn’t even its rides, it’s how they’re powered. Ezzy integrates directly into Gogoro’s famed battery-swapping network, which includes thousands of swap stations around Taiwan.

Riders can skip charging downtime by swapping depleted packs at GoStation kiosks, which regularly see hundreds of thousands of battery swaps every day.

Electrek’s Take

In terms of performance, Ezzy strikes a balance. It’s not built for speed demons, but it likely won’t bog down in traffic either. It’s not overflowing with gadgets, yet includes thoughtful features that matter – cup holder, flip-out footrests, and room for two helmets. At around US $2,000 retail before subsidies, it’s clearly aimed at broadening access to smart two-wheeling in dense cities. And since the combustion engine scooters still dominate cities in most countries, making electric alternatives more affordable is a key part of displacing those heavy polluters.

This feels less like a normal launch and more like a strategic pivot for Gogoro. While the company’s premium Smartscooters – like the sports car-inspired Pulse or high-performance SuperSport – are impressive, they’re also spendy and niche. Ezzy, by contrast, looks like what Gogoro might want every city overpopulated by cars to embrace: a stylish, comfortable, and economical electric scooter that’s accessible to the masses.

It’s still early days and Gogoro hasn’t confirmed availability beyond Taiwan, but enthusiasm for affordable, swappable-battery electric scooters is growing. If Ezzy finds even moderate success in its initial market, it could pave the way for Gogoro to expand its smart ecosystem deeper into urban centers worldwide.

In short, Ezzy may not be a headline-grabbing performance machine, but that’s exactly the point. Sometimes progress happens not with fireworks, but with smart, thoughtful moves that make electric mobility more attainable for everyone. And that’s an evolution worth riding along with.

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Environment

750W e-bikes in Europe? Discussions underway to update e-bike laws

Published

7 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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750W e-bikes in Europe? Discussions underway to update e-bike laws

The e-bike industry in the West has long been a tale of two territories. North Americans enjoy higher speeds and power limits for their electric bicycles while Europeans are held to much stricter (i.e. slower and lower) speed and power limits. However, things might change based on current discussions on rewriting European e-bike regulations.

New power levels are not totally without precedent, either. The UK briefly considered doubling its own e-bike power limit from 250 watts (approximately 1/3 horsepower) to 500 watts, though the move was ultimately abandoned.

But this time, the call for more power is coming from within the house – i.e., Germany. The Germans are the undisputed leaders and trend setters in the European e-bike market, accounting for around two million sales of e-bikes per year. Home to leading e-bike drive makers like Bosch, the country has yet another advantage when it comes to making – or regulating – waves in the industry.

And while there aren’t any pending law changes, the largest German trade organization ZIV (Zweirad-Industrie-Verband), which is highly influential in achieving such changes, is now discussing what it believes could be pertinent updates to current EU electric bike regulations.

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Some of the new regulations involve creating rules maxing out power at levels such as 400% or 600% of the human pedaling input. But a key component of the proposed plan includes changing the present day power limit of e-bikes from 250W of continuous power at the motor to 750W of peak power at the drive wheel.

The difference includes some nuance, since continuous power is often considered more of a nominal figure, meaning nearly every e-bike motor in Europe wears a “250W” or less sticker despite often outputting a higher level of peak power. Even Bosch, which has to walk the tight and narrow as a leader in the European e-bike drive market, shared that its newest models of motors are capable of peak power ratings in the 600W level. That’s still far from the commonly 1,000W to 1,300W peak power seen in US e-bike motors, but offers a nice boost over an actual 250W motor.

Other new regulations up for discussion include proposals to limit fully-loaded cargo e-bike weights to either 250 kg (550 lb) for two-wheelers or 300 kg (660 lb) for e-bikes with more than two wheels. As road.cc explained, ZIV also noted that, “separate framework conditions and parameters must be defined for cargo bikes weighing more than 300 kg (see EN 17860-4:2025) as they differ significantly from EPACs and bicycles in their dynamics, design and operation.” Such heavy-duty cargo e-bikes, which often more closely resemble small delivery vans than large cargo bikes, are becoming more common in the industry and have raised concerns about cargo e-bike bloat, especially in dedicated cycling paths.

It’s too early to say whether European e-bike regulations will actually change, but the fact that key industry voices with the power to influence policy are openly advocating for it suggests that new rules for the European market are a real possibility.

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Environment

China overhauls EV charging: 100,000 ultra-fast public stations by 2027

Published

13 hours ago

July 9, 2025

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China overhauls EV charging: 100,000 ultra-fast public stations by 2027

China just laid out a plan to roll out over 100,000 ultra-fast EV charging stations by 2027 – and they’ll all be open to the public.

The National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC) joint notice, issued on Monday, asks local authorities to put together construction plans for highway service areas and prioritize the ones that see 40% or more usage during holiday travel rushes.

The NDRC notes that China’s ultra-fast EV charging infrastructure needs upgrading as more 800V EVs hit the road. Those high-voltage platforms can handle super-fast charging in as little as 10 to 30 minutes, but only if the charging hardware is up to speed.

China had 31.4 million EVs on the road at the end of 2024 – nearly 9% of the country’s total vehicle fleet. But charging access is still catching up. As of May 2025, there were 14.4 million charging points, or roughly 1 for every 2.2 EVs.

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To keep the grid running smoothly, China wants new chargers to be smart, with dynamic pricing to incentivize off-peak charging and solar and storage to power the charging stations.

To make the business side work, the government is pushing for 10-year leases for charging station operators, and it’s backing the buildout with local government bonds.

The NDRC emphasized that the DC fast chargers built will be open to the public. This is a big deal because a lot of fast chargers in China aren’t. For example, BYD’s new megawatt chargers aren’t open to third-party vehicles.

As of September 2024, China had expanded its charging infrastructure to 11.4 million EV chargers, but only 3.3 million were public.

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