Sharp surge in energy prices threatens economic recovery and is already slowing growth

Published

4 years ago

October 12, 2021

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Woman pumps gas outside of Wawa storefront

Saul loeb

Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out.

There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession.

Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

“Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. “The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth.”

“We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth,” he added. “It’s not at a point where we’re warning about recession, but it’s at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way.”

American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January.

“We’re looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range … We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go … to negative growth,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle.

Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

“What’s different about this is normally it’s oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it’s the tail that’s being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal.”

Trouble brewing in energy markets

Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing.

Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.

Coal prices have also been rising and supplies are short, creating a power supply crunch in China. The country burns coal to generate electricity, but the inventory at its power plants faced a 10-year low in August. That has also increased the demand for natural gas.

“While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geopolitical tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, said in a recent note.

Economists say the rise in energy prices would have to be sharper and much more prolonged to cause a recession.

Bernstein energy analysts looked at past periods where prices rose sharply, and found that recessions followed periods where energy costs were at 7% of global GDP, as they reached in October.

They note the probability of recession rises when the energy costs stay above that level for a period, greater than a year.

“While the recent spike in energy costs may prove transient, a protracted period of energy costs [greater than a year] or further rise in oil to over US$100/bbl could trigger a slowdown in global economic growth as disposable income gets squeezed,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

Even though the share of energy costs is the highest in nearly a decade, on an annual basis it is still 5.2% of GDP so far in 2021, and that is not yet a dangerous level, they added.

“Annual energy costs as a percentage of GDP are above the 30-year average of 4.4%, but below that of 1979 or 2008 when annual energy costs reached over 7% of GDP,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “If energy prices rises prove to be transient, then the risk of an energy induced recession remains low.”

U.S. as a producer

Changes in the U.S. energy industry over the past two decades have provided some insulation from some of the current global energy crisis.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the hit from an energy price surge would not be all negative, since the U.S. is now a large energy producer. The U.S. produces about 11.3 million barrels a day, and exports oil and refined products.

Even with its huge production, the U.S. remains an importer of crude, bringing in an average 3.8 million barrels a day over four weeks, according to the latest Energy Information Administration weekly data.

The U.S. is providing natural gas to Europe and Asia, in the form of LNG exports, but U.S. gas prices are tied more to the domestic market and have been elevated because U.S. supplies remain lower than normal for this time of year.

Zandi said the dominance of the U.S. energy industry also has a positive impact on energy-producing parts of the economy as prices rise.

“That doesn’t mean that higher energy prices under certain scenarios wouldn’t cause a recession,” he said. “It’s just much less likely, and it would take much higher prices than it has in the past.”

Zandi said every penny increase in the cost of a gallon of gas costs U.S. consumers $1 billion. When it rises $1, as it has in the last year, that’s about $100 billion.

Another $1 jump would be harmful.

“That’s $100 billion, just a half percent of GDP. It would do damage. It would ding the economy, but I don’t think it would derail it,” he said. “If it went to $5.25, that’s $200 billion. That’s a percent of GDP. If energy prices are rising like that it’s likely other prices are rising.”

The immediate impact of higher energy costs is higher inflation, which creates a drag on consumer spending.

Kasman said the increase in energy prices, as of last week, would add about 2.5% to the consumer price index in the fourth quarter, if prices remain at that level. That could translate to a drag of a half percentage point or more on GDP, he noted.

“That is not small, but it’s not a recession,” he said. Kasman said he expects a pretty strong global economy next year, but the higher energy costs do raise concerns there could be an even big enough drag on purchasing power and that could chip away at growth.

Kasman said the impacts gets worse, the higher prices go. JPMorgan economists ran an analysis where they projected another 50% jump in energy prices.

“In this scenario, in which crude oil prices move quickly above US$100/bbl, the shock to US incomes is very large — as CPI inflation is pushed up by 10%-pts annualized — nearly twice the impact we estimate for the Euro area,” they said in a note. “While this scenario does not appear likely, it is important to recognize the threat posed by the combination of supply shocks now buffeting the global economy.”

JPMorgan forecasts fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.5%, and now expects the third quarter grew at a 4% pace, down from an earlier forecast of 8%. The firm expects average growth of 3.5% next year. They also forecast CPI gains to average more than 4% during the second half of the year.

CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

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CNBC Daily Open: Most people don’t start a political party after separation

Published

5 hours ago

July 7, 2025

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CNBC Daily Open: Most people don't start a political party after separation

US President Donald Trump, right, and Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a news conference in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, May 30, 2025.

Francis Chung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

When they find themselves without a significant other, most men finally start living: They pay attention to their personal grooming, hit the gym and discover new hobbies.

What does the world’s richest man do? He starts a political party.

Last weekend, as the United States celebrated its independence from the British in 1776, Elon Musk enshrined his sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump by establishing the creatively named “American Party.”

Few details have been revealed, but Musk said the party will focus on “just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts,” and will have legislative discussions “with both parties” — referring to the U.S. Democratic and Republican Parties.

It might be easier to realize Musk’s dream of colonizing Mars than to bridge the political aisle in the U.S. government today.

To be fair, some thought appeared to be behind the move. Musk decided to form the party after holding a poll on X in which 65.4% of respondents voted in favor.

Folks, here’s direct democracy — and the powerful post-separation motivation — in action.

— CNBC’s Erin Doherty contributed to this report.

What you need to know today

Trump confirms tariffs will kick in Aug. 1. That postpones the deadline by a month, but tariffs could “boomerang” back to April levels for countries without deals. Trump on Friday said letters with “take it or leave it” offers will go out to 12 countries Monday.

U.S. stock futures slipped Sunday. Despite the White House pushing back the return of “reciprocal” tariffs, some investors could be worried trade negotiations would result in higher-than-expected duties. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.48% Friday.

OPEC+ members to increase oil output. Eight members of the alliance agreed on Saturday to hike their collective crude production by 548,000 barrels per day, around 100,000 more than expected.

Elon Musk forms a new political party. On Saturday, the world’s richest man said he has formed a new U.S. political party named the “American Party,” which he claims will give Americans “back your freedom.”

[PRO] Wall Street is growing cautious on European equities. As investors seek shelter from tumult in U.S., the Stoxx 600 index has risen 6.6% year to date. Analysts, however, think the foundations of that growth could be shaky.

And finally…

Ayrton Senna driving the Marlboro McLaren during the Belgian Grand Prix in 1992.

Pascal Rondeau | Hulton Archive | Getty Images

The CEO mindset is shifting. It’s no longer all about winning

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/06/the-ceo-mindset-is-shifting-its-no-longer-all-about-winning.html

CEOs today aren’t just steering companies — they’re navigating a minefield. From geopolitical shocks and economic volatility to rapid shifts in tech and consumer behavior, the playbook for leadership is being rewritten in real time.

In an exclusive interview with CNBC earlier this week, McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown outlined a leadership approach centered on urgency, momentum and learning from failure.

— Spriha Srivastava

Environment

Honda now has an electric Ruckus. Will they bring it to the US?

Published

16 hours ago

July 6, 2025

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Honda now has an electric Ruckus. Will they bring it to the US?

The Honda Ruckus has earned cult status thanks to its minimalist styling, exposed frame, and seemingly endless customizability. The scooter, also known in international markets as the Honda Zoomer, has spent years being seen as a blank canvas for scooter tuners, urban commuters, and anyone who just wanted something simple, small, and kind of weird to zip around town. A few years ago, Honda finally answered the call for an updated version by announcing and producing the “Zoomer e:”, which was an electric version of the Honda Ruckus. So where is it?

When Honda launched the all-electric version of the Ruckus, the Zoomer e:, back in 2023, many fans hoped it was only a matter of time before we saw it quietly glide onto U.S. streets.

But two years later, there’s still no sign of a stateside release, and no indication that Honda plans to change that anytime soon.

The Zoomer e: was first introduced in China in early 2023 alongside two other retro-inspired electrics: the Cub e: and Dax e:.

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The Zoomer e: keeps the stripped-down, industrial look of the classic gas-powered Ruckus, but swaps the 49cc engine for a 400W rear hub motor and a 48V 24Ah battery (around 1.15 kWh).

It was originally given a top speed of a mere 25 km/h (15.5 mph) to keep it street legal as an electric bicycle in its first market of China, where it also came with functional but stubby pedals so riders could pretend it was actually pedalable.

The first version of the electric scooter claimed a range of up to 80–90 km (50–56 miles) from its removable lithium-ion battery, depending on conditions.

An advertisement for a Honda Zoomer e: in the Philippines via Facebook

We’ve since seen the performance bumped up to 40 km/h (25 mph) top speeds when the scooter was introduced into the Philippines market, where the local L1B classification allowed for higher speeds. It’s fairly obvious that the performance can be software-tweaked by Honda depending on the market, though likely to a limit. To achieve speeds much higher than 25 mph, a motor and controller swap may be required, though neither would be complicated.

In other words, the electric Ruckus’ debut revealed an ultra-lightweight, street-legal runabout designed for countries with expansive low-speed e-bike laws. But in the U.S., these types of quasi-e-bikes that are actually scooters are few and far between. The same performance can be had from a $1,000 electric bicycle, and in fact, Class 3 e-bikes in the US can go nearly twice as fast as the original electric Ruckus.

So Honda obviously hasn’t been in a rush to bring its low-spec version of the bike to the US market, where it would be a slower and heavier competitor to the wide range of cheap imported electric bicycles. However, its iconic design and cultural legacy have kept enthusiasm up for riders who have managed to privately import their own models. One Redditor appears to have imported two Honda Zoomer e: models in parts to assemble in the US, while someone else posted a YouTube video of his completely assembled Honda Dax e: model that was launched along the Zoomer e:.

Two Honda Zoomer e: electric mopeds imported to the US in pieces then assembled; image via: Reddit

Despite clear consumer interest and a growing market for low-speed electric vehicles, as well as Honda’s own proven interest in growing its electric scooter market, the company hasn’t made any moves to release the Zoomer e: in the US. That’s not surprising since America still lacks a robust electric scooter culture (or even a gasoline scooter culture, for that matter), and anything motorcycle-shaped that doesn’t hit 30+ mph tends to get passed over by mainstream buyers.

But perhaps that could change one day. Technically, bringing the Zoomer e: to the US wouldn’t be a monumental task for Honda. The U.S. is a self-certify country, meaning Honda could design a version that meets federal vehicle safety standards, beef up the motor and controller for higher speeds, and sell it as either a Class 2/3 e-bike, or perhaps more appropriately, as a low-speed motorcycle with a top speed in the 35-45 mph range (55-70 km/h).

With the rise of micromobility, electrification, and growing frustration with car-centric cities, now might actually be the perfect time for a reborn electric Ruckus to hit US roads. But until Honda decides to take that step, American riders will have to keep dreaming – or start importing.

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A private import of a Honda Zoomer e: to the US

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Environment

BMW ups the ante with the fastest, most powerful electric maxi-scooter

Published

2 days ago

July 5, 2025

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BMW ups the ante with the fastest, most powerful electric maxi-scooter

BMW Motorrad’s futuristic electric scooter just got its first real refresh since beginning production in 2021. The BMW CE 04, already one of the most capable and stylish electric maxi-scooters on the market, now gets a set of upgraded trim options, new aesthetic touches, and a more robust list of features that aim to make this urban commuter even more appealing to riders looking for serious electric performance on two wheels.

The BMW CE 04 has always stood out for its sci-fi styling and high-performance drivetrain. It’s built on a mid-mounted liquid-cooled motor that puts out 31 kW (42 hp) and 62 Nm of torque. That’s enough to rocket the scooter from 0 to 50 km/h (31 mph) in just 2.6 seconds – quite fast for anything with a step-through frame.

The top speed is electronically limited to 120 km/h (75 mph), making it perfectly capable for city riding and fast enough to hold its own on highway stretches. Range is rated at 130 km (81 miles) on the WMTC cycle, thanks to the 8.9 kWh battery pack tucked low in the frame.

But while the core performance hasn’t changed, BMW’s 2025 update focuses on refining the package and giving riders more options to tailor the scooter to their taste. The new CE 04 is available in three trims: Basic, Avantgarde, and Exclusive.

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The Basic trim keeps things clean and classic with a Lightwhite paint scheme and a clear windshield. It’s subtle, sleek, and very much in line with the CE 04’s clean-lined aesthetic. The Avantgarde model adds a splash of color with a Gravity Blue main body and bright São Paulo Yellow accents, along with a dark windshield and a laser-engraved rim. The top-shelf Exclusive trim is where things get fancy, with a premium Spacesilver metallic paint job, upgraded wind protection, heated grips, a luxury embroidered seat, and its own unique engraved rim treatment.

There are also a few new tech upgrades baked into the options list. Riders can now spec a 6.9 kW quick charger that reduces the 0–80% charge time to just 45 minutes (down from nearly 4 hours with the standard 2.3 kW onboard charger). Tire pressure monitoring, a center stand, and BMW’s “Headlight Pro” adaptive lighting system are also available as add-ons, along with an emergency eCall system and Dynamic Traction Control.

BMW has kept the core riding components in place: a steel-tube chassis, 15-inch wheels, Bosch ABS (with optional ABS Pro), and the impressive 10.25” TFT display with integrated navigation and smartphone connectivity. The under-seat storage still swallows a full-face helmet, and the long, low frame design means the scooter looks like something out of Blade Runner but rides like a luxury commuter.

With these updates, BMW seems to be further cementing the CE 04’s role at the high end of the electric scooter market. It’s not cheap, starting around €12,000 in Europe and around US $12,500 in the US, with prices going up from there depending on configuration. However, the maxi-scooter delivers real motorcycle-grade performance in a package that’s easier to live with for daily riders.

Electrek’s Take

I believe that the CE 04’s biggest strength has always been that it’s not trying to be a toy or a gimmick. It’s a real vehicle. Sure, it’s futuristic and funky looking, but it delivers on its promises. And in a market that’s still surprisingly sparse when it comes to premium electric scooters, BMW has had the lane mostly to itself. That may not last forever, though. LiveWire, Harley-Davidson’s electric spin-off brand, has teased plans for a maxi-scooter-style urban electric vehicle in the coming years, but as of now, it remains something of an undefined future plan.

Meanwhile, BMW is delivering not just a concept bike but a mature, well-equipped, and ready-to-ride electric scooter that keeps improving. For riders who want something faster and more capable than a Class 3 e-bike but aren’t ready to jump to a full-size electric motorcycle, the CE 04 hits a sweet spot. It delivers the performance and capability of a commuter e-motorcycle, yet with the approachability of a scooter. And with these new trims and upgrades, it’s doing it with even more style.