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Saul loeb

Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out.

There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession.

Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

“Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. “The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth.”

“We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth,” he added. “It’s not at a point where we’re warning about recession, but it’s at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way.”

American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January.

“We’re looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range … We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go … to negative growth,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle.

Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

“What’s different about this is normally it’s oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it’s the tail that’s being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal.”

Trouble brewing in energy markets

Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing.

Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.

Coal prices have also been rising and supplies are short, creating a power supply crunch in China. The country burns coal to generate electricity, but the inventory at its power plants faced a 10-year low in August. That has also increased the demand for natural gas.

“While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geopolitical tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, said in a recent note.

Economists say the rise in energy prices would have to be sharper and much more prolonged to cause a recession.

Bernstein energy analysts looked at past periods where prices rose sharply, and found that recessions followed periods where energy costs were at 7% of global GDP, as they reached in October.

They note the probability of recession rises when the energy costs stay above that level for a period, greater than a year.

“While the recent spike in energy costs may prove transient, a protracted period of energy costs [greater than a year] or further rise in oil to over US$100/bbl could trigger a slowdown in global economic growth as disposable income gets squeezed,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

Even though the share of energy costs is the highest in nearly a decade, on an annual basis it is still 5.2% of GDP so far in 2021, and that is not yet a dangerous level, they added.

“Annual energy costs as a percentage of GDP are above the 30-year average of 4.4%, but below that of 1979 or 2008 when annual energy costs reached over 7% of GDP,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “If energy prices rises prove to be transient, then the risk of an energy induced recession remains low.”

U.S. as a producer

Changes in the U.S. energy industry over the past two decades have provided some insulation from some of the current global energy crisis.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the hit from an energy price surge would not be all negative, since the U.S. is now a large energy producer. The U.S. produces about 11.3 million barrels a day, and exports oil and refined products.

Even with its huge production, the U.S. remains an importer of crude, bringing in an average 3.8 million barrels a day over four weeks, according to the latest Energy Information Administration weekly data.

The U.S. is providing natural gas to Europe and Asia, in the form of LNG exports, but U.S. gas prices are tied more to the domestic market and have been elevated because U.S. supplies remain lower than normal for this time of year.

Zandi said the dominance of the U.S. energy industry also has a positive impact on energy-producing parts of the economy as prices rise.

“That doesn’t mean that higher energy prices under certain scenarios wouldn’t cause a recession,” he said. “It’s just much less likely, and it would take much higher prices than it has in the past.”

Zandi said every penny increase in the cost of a gallon of gas costs U.S. consumers $1 billion. When it rises $1, as it has in the last year, that’s about $100 billion.

Another $1 jump would be harmful.

“That’s $100 billion, just a half percent of GDP. It would do damage. It would ding the economy, but I don’t think it would derail it,” he said. “If it went to $5.25, that’s $200 billion. That’s a percent of GDP. If energy prices are rising like that it’s likely other prices are rising.”

The immediate impact of higher energy costs is higher inflation, which creates a drag on consumer spending.

Kasman said the increase in energy prices, as of last week, would add about 2.5% to the consumer price index in the fourth quarter, if prices remain at that level. That could translate to a drag of a half percentage point or more on GDP, he noted.

“That is not small, but it’s not a recession,” he said. Kasman said he expects a pretty strong global economy next year, but the higher energy costs do raise concerns there could be an even big enough drag on purchasing power and that could chip away at growth.

Kasman said the impacts gets worse, the higher prices go. JPMorgan economists ran an analysis where they projected another 50% jump in energy prices.

“In this scenario, in which crude oil prices move quickly above US$100/bbl, the shock to US incomes is very large — as CPI inflation is pushed up by 10%-pts annualized — nearly twice the impact we estimate for the Euro area,” they said in a note. “While this scenario does not appear likely, it is important to recognize the threat posed by the combination of supply shocks now buffeting the global economy.”

JPMorgan forecasts fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.5%, and now expects the third quarter grew at a 4% pace, down from an earlier forecast of 8%. The firm expects average growth of 3.5% next year. They also forecast CPI gains to average more than 4% during the second half of the year.

CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

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Tenways launches Wayfarer e-bike with $577 savings at $1,899, Jackery Explorer 3000 V2 solar bundle at exclusive new $1,249 low, more

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October 31, 2025

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Tenways launches Wayfarer e-bike with 7 savings at ,899, Jackery Explorer 3000 V2 solar bundle at exclusive new ,249 low, more


Happy Halloween, everyone! The holiday is closing out this week’s Green Deals led by the brand new launch of Tenways’ Wayfarer e-bike that is getting $277 in FREE gear and a $300 price cut to $1,899. We also have an exclusive $1,750 savings on Jackery’s Explorer 3000 V2 (HomePower 3000) Portable Power Station bundled with two 200W solar panels at a new $1,249 low, as well as two one-day only deals on a heavy-duty Greenworks snow blower and Anker’s SOLIX C1000X Gen 2 variant, and much more waiting for you below. And don’t forget about the hangover deals from last week that are collected together at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s combined EcoFlow Halloween Sale and Monthly Madness promotions that end tonight, Rad Power’s extended sale offers, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Tenways launches new Wayfarer e-bike with 85-mile range, Apple Find My, and $577 savings at $1,899

Running alongside its ongoing Early Black Friday Sale, Tenways has launched its Wayfarer e-bike that comes with $277 in FREE gear at $1,899 shipped, after using the on-page code EARLYBIRD300 at checkout. This new model will go for $2,199 at full price once these launch savings end, which is getting a significant $300 markdown that sets the bar for future discounts, while also getting $277 in FREE add-on gear. That gear includes mudguards, a kickstand, and a rear cargo rack to bring some extra versatility. As always with this brand, folks who are medical providers, military, first responders, students, or teachers can receive an extra $100 discounts upon verification.

Whereas Tenways is known for its throttle-less commuters that have smaller motor and battery combos that add to their lightweight designs, the brand’s Wayfarer e-bike is flipping the script as it not only comes with a throttle, but also a larger Bafang 500W rear hub motor (peaking at 750W) powered by a 720Wh battery. This pairing gives you up to 85 miles of pedal-assisted support (with a torque sensor) and up to 35 miles of throttle-led full electric power, maxing out at either 20 or 28 MPH (depending on your local laws).

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Among its features, you’ll find hydraulic disc brakes with power cut-off, Kenda EPS all-terrain puncture-resistant tires, an 8-speed Shimano derailleur, an LED headlight, a brake-activated taillight with turn signaling, a TFT LCD screen for setting adjustments, and more. We’re even seeing some app-based support come in the form of a live dashboard for settings and performance, navigation services, and even Apple Find My integration so you always know where it is. You can learn even more in our original launch coverage.

You can also check out Tenways’ full Early Black Friday Sale with up to $1,116 savings here.

jackery's explorer 3000 v2 (homepower 3000) power station in yard with two solar panels

Score an exclusive $1,750 savings on Jackery’s Explorer 3000 V2 solar bundle with 2x 200W panels at a new $1,249 low

We’ve secured an exclusive deal on the Jackery Explorer 3000 V2 (HomePower 3000) Portable Power Station bundled with two 200W solar panels at $1,249 shipped, after using the exclusive code 9TO5BFJACK at checkout. This solar-expanded package usually goes for $2,999 in full, which we’ve seen regularly keeping down at $1,599 since mid-September, and has only gone as low as $1,499 up until today. It’s starting off with an initial price cut to that $1,499 rate that we only saw once before during Prime Day, with the exclusive bonus savings taking things lower than ever with a combined $1,750 markdown to a new all-time low price.

If you want to learn more about this power station’s capabilities, be sure to check out our original coverage of this exclusive deal here.

man clears snow with Greenworks 80V 24-inch cordless two-stage snow blower

Greenworks’ heavy-duty 80V 24-inch cordless two-stage snow blower kit hits $1,400 (Today only)

As part of its Deals of the Day, Best Buy is offering the Greenworks 80V 24-inch Cordless Two-Stage Snow Blower with two 4.0Ah batteries and dual-port rapid charger at $1,399.99 shipped, with it being unavailable at Amazon currently. While it goes for $2,000 in full here, you’ll find it carrying a lower $1,850 MSRP direct from the brand, which is where it’s currently priced. This is the first time in 2025 we’ve seen this particular model with this package being offered at a discounted rate, and for the rest of the day, you can save $600 off Best Buy’s pricing for the second-lowest rate we have tracked, coming in $100 above the low that we last saw in 2024.

If you want to learn more about this two-stage snow blower, be sure to check out our original coverage of this one-day-only deal here.

man and woman charging phone and drone outdoors with anker solix c1000x gen 2 power station

For the rest of the day, save $325 on Anker’s black SOLIX C1000X Gen 2 power station at $475

As part of its Deals of the Day, Best Buy is offering the very first discount we’ve spotted on the Anker SOLIX C1000X Gen 2 Portable Power Station to $474.99 shipped. Normally going for $800 at full price, this is the first time we’ve seen discounts on this black colorway, as opposed to the standard grey colorway that is sold direct from the brand (currently $449), Amazon (currently $450), and other retailers. For the rest of the day only, you can pick it up with a $325 markdown off the going rate. Keep in mind that this is identical to the standard grey model we’ve seen go as low as $379, and is only notable for folks who would prefer the darker color. You can also browse the newer SOLIX C2000 Gen 2 power station launch deals here.

If you want to learn more about this or the standard C1000 Gen 2 station, you can check out our original coverage of this one-day-only deal here, or get a more in-depth rundown in our hands-on tested review here.

Best Fall EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.


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Podcast: Tesla’s ‘flying’ Roadster, Elon’s pay, new EVs from Japan, and more

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October 31, 2025

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Podcast: Tesla's 'flying' Roadster, Elon's pay, new EVs from Japan, and more

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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla’s ‘flying’ Roadster, Elon’s pay package, new EVs unveiled at Japan’s mobility show, and more.

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

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We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:


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Hyundai IONIQ 5 gets a superhero costume from Brian Kim Designs

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3 hours ago

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October 31, 2025

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Hyundai IONIQ 5 gets a superhero costume from Brian Kim Designs

IONIQ EVO - IONIQ 5 N Wide Bodykit CONCEPT

Just in time for next week’s SEMA show in Las Vegas, Brian Kim Designs has dressed up the all-electric Hyundai IONIQ 5 in a wild concept body with wings, flared fenders, wild colors, and a whole lot more – perfect for Halloween!

Based on the ultra-high performance Hyundai IONIQ 5 N, Brian Kim Designs’ IONIQ EVO concept considers one of the directions high-performance electric vehicles could take as the tuner cars of the future, and explores (what Kim calls) the, “untapped potential of EVs” in the broader aftermarket and customization space.

The IONIQ EVO features aggressively flared fenders that barely cover the high-performance VOLK wheels and sticky summer tire combination. The suspension is lowered slightly, too, to give the concept a bullish, broad shouldered stance that announces to the world that this Hyundai means business.

The colors, too – in a high-energy matte finish, were carefully chose to set help the IONIQ EVO apart from its more pedestrian cousins. You can take a look, below:

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The Kim-designed aerodynamics-enhancing concept also incorporates fin-type side skirt trims, a deep chin splitter, and outlet designs that extract dirty air generated by the wheels. A massive, roof-mounted spoiler with full-length aero fin for enhanced stability at triple digit speeds is, of course, also included.

Of course, all the spoilers in the world won’t make a car faster. For that, you need power – but it’s not quite as easy to get “more” power out of an electric motors as it can be from an ICE. Luckily, the IONIQ 5 N has power and torque to spare. That means that the best way to improve performance isn’t necessarily having more horsepower, but having fewer lbs. for each of the car’s horses to pull aruond.

The VOLK wheels help significantly, as do the lightweight Brembo brakes. To further reduce mass, the bodywork is made of lightweight composites – an approach we’ve seen before in the Lancia Delta-inspired Vanwall, which shed 500 lbs. from the IONIQ 5.

Kim’s website calls the IONIQ EVO exterior design, “an in-house customization concept by Hyundai Motor Company.” Here’s hoping the two get to collaborate again, soon.

Brian Kim Designs | IONIQ EVO

SOURCE | IMAGES: Brian Kim Designs.

If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them. 

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.


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