Tesla posts record earnings but on one stock market number Elon Musk’s EV company is still disappointing
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3 years agoon
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said the fundamental good the electric car maker does will be measured in the acceleration of the world to sustainable energy.
Tesla’s role in the auto industry’s move to electrification is undeniable. Many major automakers are now investing billions in EV and battery manufacturing, and consumer interest in EVs continues to grow. While a Pew Research Center survey this summer found only 7% of U.S. adults currently had an electric or hybrid vehicle, 39% said they were considering an electric vehicle to be the next car they bought.
“One of the many things he did is he pushed the industry toward taking EV seriously,” former Ford CEO Mark Fields said of Musk.
Tesla didn’t surpass 1% share of new car sales until 2018, but during the first half of 2021, Tesla’s share of the all-electric segment of the auto market stood at about two-thirds.
“Profitability as a pure EV maker is an accomplishment in and of itself,” said Driss Lembachar, manager of transportation and infrastructure research at Morningstar’s Sustainalytics.
Tesla‘s stock price, now near-$900, and its rise to a near-$1 trillion company, shows that investors have been rewarded for sticking with a company that five years ago traded under $50 amid constant reporting on financial struggles.
But for ESG analysts including Lembachar, “There is some room for improvement.”
Beyond Tesla earnings and sales
As Tesla gets set to report its latest earnings on Wednesday and demand for its EVs show continued growth, its balance sheet becomes less volatile, and it ramps up manufacturing around the globe — including operations in Europe and China — its success is also an indication that Tesla has passed beyond its roots as a California start-up. It’s becoming a mature automaker. That is one reason ESG experts are watching closely to see how Musk’s company evolves in relation to investor concerns about environmental, social and governance issues.
Yana Kakar, global managing partner emeritus at Dalberg, said when the ESG debate is boiled down to a choice between whether the product a company produces is good, such as a Tesla EV, or the way it produces the product is good, that is a mistake.
“That’s a false dichotomy,” she said. “There is no necessary tradeoff. It is not a zero-sum game.”
How a company produces its products can be a reflection of the same values in the products it creates, and “that is entirely achievable,” Kakar said.
This debate over Tesla has a parallel to the rise of Silicon Valley companies that are “revolutionizing” industries and, as a result, have to keep their focus on that primary goal and not ESG.
“That attitude has been particularly prevalent in Silicon Valley,” said Jaakko Kooroshy, head of sustainable investment research at FTSE Russell. “But investors have come around to the view that a company can continue ‘saving the world’ and also have decent sustainability disclosures, and those disclosures do matter in the context of the company trying to save the world.” He added, “The line from Tesla for a very long time was ‘we are busy here saving the world so who cares about our emissions disclosures and corporate governance mechanisms.”
Tesla shareholders are pressing company on ESG
The recent Tesla annual shareholder meeting showed how investor pressure is being applied to the company, with a measure for diversity, equity and inclusion reporting approved by shareholders over management objections. The vote came shortly after a legal case in which a former Tesla contract worker sued over a hostile work environment and was awarded $137 million.
ESG experts say it is a sign that Tesla shareholders are making their voices heard, but it will be another year before ESG experts and shareholders can assess any changes made by Tesla in response to the shareholder measure. Shareholder measures are non-binding, and though corporate management often enacts changes in response to shareholder wins, it is not always with the scope or comprehensiveness that shareholders expected.
To date, in spite of all of the “good” the company is doing related to climate change, Tesla has not had the best ESG track record.
Paul Tudor Jones’ ESG firm JUST Capital ranks Tesla among the bottom 10% of all companies on ESG — its ESG methodology is weighted more heavily to broad social issues than climate specifically.
FTSE Russell has Tesla ranked last among carmakers globally on ESG issues.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on its ESG philosophy.
Environment and climate
ESG rating agencies, in the early days of the industry, don’t yet agree on how to assess Tesla even on the “E” of environment with which it is synonymous.
Lembachar said on the environmental pillar in ESG, “They are one of the best … it goes without saying they produce only cars without emissions, and they have been credited for that.”
But in 2018, FTSE Russell gave Tesla a “zero” on environment because even though its revenue sources are green and its cars are non-emitting, the company didn’t disclose its own operational emissions.
Historically, Tesla did not provide transparency in terms of reporting its Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon emissions, water use, or waste management. But Tesla has improved as investors pressed for more information and it has started publishing more corporate disclosures in recent years, said Kooroshy, which has led to an improvement in Tesla’s environmental ranking in the FTSE Russell ESG analysis.
How Tesla deals with the waste it generates and its water usage, particularly as it is starting to scale around the world and provide millions of vehicles, does matter, he said. There are many ways to produce EVs, some cleaner and some more problematic, and supply chains and sourcing of raw materials such as cobalt, which goes into batteries, and human rights and labor issues in regions where minerals are sourced, need to be considered by investors as risk factors.
“What is clear is that Tesla has made some improvements, but compared to many of its peers in the auto industry, its environmental reporting is still fairly rudimentary,” Kooroshy said. “They are conscious of, and made commitments to disclose more data points in future, and as they do, when they do, we will see it reflected in those ratings.”
Labor
On balance, social and governance issues remain the major hurdles for Tesla. MCSI places Tesla above average in its rankings, but not as an ESG leader.
“If you look at labor management or product safety quality, we see some issues there,” said Arne Klug, vice president of ESG research at MSCI. “We couldn’t say that the company’s programs, in terms of labor management, or product safety, quality, are really aligned with its growth strategy based on our assessment.”
In March, the National Labor Relations Board ruled that Tesla violated federal labor laws while United Auto Workers and other unions tried to organize at its original plant in Fremont, California. The NLRB also found Tesla guilty of “coercively interrogating” three employees over unionizing activities, illegally firing another and disciplining another.
For JUST Capital, worker issues are one of the primary reasons Tesla gets “tripped” up in its rankings, Whittaker said. How a company supports local communities, what is it doing on diversity, and what it is doing on fair pay and worker issues, are all issues that JUST weighs more heavily than climate alone in its overall ESG rankings because Whittaker said, “the public weighs them highly.”
The labor issues will pose a material risk to Tesla as it expands around the world, Lembachar said, as they do for any company with global operations where a confrontation with a labor force at one site can increase the risk of more general strikes.
“Workforce issues can have more of an effect now that the company is getting out of this start-up stage and expanding around the world and in Europe, where there is a really strong union tradition,” he said. “The company must be prepared for labor-related risks and, according to us, must have stronger labor-related programs prepared to tackle issues related to the expansion of its workforce engine around the world.”
Autopilot as an ESG issue
Tesla is facing investigations from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding Autopilot, the automated driving technology currently in Tesla’s Models 3, S, X and Y in 2021.
While it may at first not seem obvious how self-driving is an ESG issue, it in fact falls within traditional categories that date all the way back to the days of Ralph Nader and “unsafe at any speed”: product safety and passenger safety.
Lembachar said Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) is something his firm receives a lot of questions about as an ESG scoring metric, but he says it is simple: “Anything related to passenger safety is product governance and falls under the ‘Social’ pillar. Everything related to recalls, accidents, defects, responsibility of company is product governance.”
He was quick to point out that if self-driving works it may ultimately cut down on accidents by as much as 90%, and Tesla is potentially far ahead of competitors with the technology. But in a period of time when it is being scrutinized as the cause of accidents and fatalities, self-driving remains a product governance negative, and that metric has a heavy weighting for the auto industry. That hits other companies, too, such as GM after its recent recall on electric cars due to battery fire risk. And Lembacher said these issues have a material cost: for GM, more than $1 billion in the case of the recalls. “That is a very material issue,” he said.
Corporate governance and Tesla’ ESG future
Even though tweets may seem ephemeral, Musk’s confrontation with the Securities and Exchange Commission over controversial tweets can negatively impact the company’s corporate governance score.
“In terms of corporate governance, we see the confrontation between Musk and the SEC as problematic,” Lembacher said. “Tweets are problematic when they change the share price and that can be harmful for shareholders … and that’s why the SEC has been flagging it. There is a risk that the regulator at some point will sanction the company and since we are running a risk rating product, we have to flag this issue.”
Questions also remain about the company’s acquisition of SolarCity, which was controlled by Musk’s cousins (a legal case is ongoing brought by shareholders).
The corporate governance issues raise a bigger question about Musk’s impact on ESG ratings.
“It is not enough to say the company is being run by a ‘genius’ and as a result, ‘please don’t ask us too many questions,” Kooroshy said. “There is no doubt about the achievements of this company, particularly about accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. This is stuff for the history books, but at the end of the day, for investors trying to understand how much of a portfolio to invest in this company … not enough, he said. “It’s still not a free pass. … Making these disclosures doesn’t stop them from innovating.”
Kakar said Tesla’s mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, and its focus on that as an argument in its defense, is implicitly a relative statement comparing itself to other automakers, and that is where the false tradeoff comes in. “It is terrific they are making EVs … but relative to the next guy is not the important point, and doesn’t obfuscate responsibility.”
Many ESG investors and ESG investment products today accentuate the “E” and climate specifically. “That’s where the action is at and investors have seen it as a good story, and if you think about environmental performance and climate as the big opportunities, you see Tesla as a big solution and will be attracted to it,” Whittaker said.
But as any company grows in scope and scale, the range of issues they have to contend with changes and investors will ask more about the “how” behind the growing business.
“That’s what is going to happen with Tesla as people become more aware of the social risk of how it operates,” Whittaker said. “It is bound to become more of an issue for investors and more of an operational risk for the company if it doesn’t perform well … more prominent in the overall calculus of company competitiveness and success.”
“That is not to say it won’t do well,” he added. “Musk is an incredible entrepreneur and business leader and I am sure if it becomes an issue he thinks will affect the value of the company or brand, he will respond accordingly. I expect it will become more of an issue for the management team to have to deal with.”
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Environment
Rivian Adventure Network open to other cars soon, will be ‘awesome’ says CEO
Published
40 mins agoon
November 23, 2024By
adminWe heard a little more about Rivian’s upcoming plans to open its Rivian Adventure Network chargers at a roundtable discussion with CEO RJ Scaringe this week.
Rivian has been working on its own in-house charging network since 2020, with a focus of placing charging sites on the way to the sort of beautiful natural places that it has tied so much of its brand to.
For a primary example of this, Rivian opened its first “Charging Outpost” just outside Yosemite National Park in July, renovating an old gas station into a very cool ranger cabin-style spot to stop and refuel your car – and also yourself.
Now, it’s ready to open its network to other brands, which it announced last April. The goal was to open by the end of 2024 – which is fast approaching.
While Rivian stopped short of announcing a date for this at our roundtable discussion, it was clear that the announcement is coming “very soon.”
Scaringe told us that he was just reviewing the software that non-Rivian customers will use and that “it’s gonna be awesome.” So it sounds like there’s a plan to offer a separate app experience for non-Rivian owners, likely through the Rivian app (thus ballooning the number of apps that every EV owner needs to have… we need to do something about that).
To this end, Rivian did purchase A Better Route Planner (ABRP) last June, one of the more popular charge planning apps for EVs. This has surely been a factor in Rivian’s app development.
Scaringe told us that RAN has now expanded to a total of 91 sites and around 700 chargers – which he says is around 4% of the size of Tesla’s Supercharger network, but that RAN has maintained high uptime as it scales. Scaringe said that if you would have asked him 6-7 years ago, he would have expected more successful third-party charging companies by now., but that now, out of all the charging networks out there, there are “only two great networks – and only one great scaled network,” namely Tesla Superchargers.
The others, which aren’t owned by an EV manufacturer, just aren’t as good. RAN and Tesla have ~99% uptime, where Scaringe said that other networks have sub-70% or even sub-50% uptime (this may be an underestimate – or maybe not – but the point stands that every EV driver can tell you Tesla is the gold standard here).
So Rivian sees it as important to electrification to offer another great network that can help give drivers more choices, more availability, and high reliability.
But how will that interface with the NACS transition? Rivian was early to hop aboard and announce that it will shift to using NACS and ship adapters to its owners, though its current vehicles still have native CCS ports even post-refresh (the Korean brands will be the first to offer native NACS ports on their vehicles).
We were quite interested in the timeline of who started the discussions to shift to NACS, and Scaringe told us that it was pretty much universal across the industry that as soon as Tesla released its NACS whitepaper calling it an open standard, car companies started talking amongst themselves about the potential of finally harmonizing on a single charging standard.
As of now, Rivian is still installing CCS cables, not NACS ones. It sounded like it intends to keep doing this for the foreseeable future, and that “the charging network will catch up” as cars transition to NACS. Until then, people can use adapters – and “in the long term, everything will go to NACS” as it’s just a better standard, and whatever remaining CCS cars exist will just end up using adapters.
This seems a little strange to make cars that aren’t (natively) supported on your own charging network, but Scaringe said that that’s the benefit of owning the network – cables are not too hard to swap out. So it would be easy to just change out the cable heads on existing chargers without having to build new sites or install new cabinets.
We asked whether they’d try a dual-charging-head strategy, with NACS and CCS heads on each cabinet, but it didn’t sound like that was in the plans. The cables will, at least, be long enough to reach both sides of the vehicle – an important consideration given the lack of standardization of charging port locations on EVs, as networks start opening up to multiple brands.
So – we’re looking forward to hearing more about Rivian’s efforts to open RAN, which ought to bear fruit quite soon, if the “end of the year” schedule holds. Stay tuned, as we’re sure there’s more news to come soon.
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Environment
How tech bros bought ‘America’s most pro-crypto Congress ever’
Published
2 hours agoon
November 23, 2024By
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Bernie Moreno, Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Ohio, attends a campaign event in Holland, Ohio, on Saturday, October 26, 2024. Moreno is running against Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Prior to announcing his Senate candidacy in April 2023, Bernie Moreno was a political no name. A former car salesman in the Cleveland area, his only prior experience in politics was a losing bid for Ohio’s other Senate seat in 2022.
Moreno has since accomplished the once unthinkable.
On Nov. 5, as part of the election that swept Donald Trump back into the White House, Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, who was first elected to the House in 1992, before winning his Senate seat in 2006 and chairing the powerful Banking Committee since 2021.
Moreno’s rise from unsung Ohio businessman to prominent political leader was no accident. His campaign was backed by $40 million from the cryptocurrency industry as part of a highly targeted effort to get friendly candidates elected and, perhaps more importantly, its critics removed. Moreno’s victory was one of the Senate seats Republicans flipped to take control of the chamber.
In total, crypto-related PACs and other groups tied to the industry reeled in over $245 million, according to Federal Election Commission data. Crypto accounted for nearly half of all corporate dollars that flowed into the election, according to nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen. Advocacy group Stand With Crypto Alliance, which Coinbase launched last year, developed a grading system for House and Senate races across the country as a way to help determine where money should be spent.
Crypto execs, investors and evangelists saw the election as existential to an industry that spent the past four years simultaneously trying to grow up while being repeatedly beaten down. Nearly 300 pro-crypto lawmakers will take seats in the House and Senate, according to Stand With Crypto, giving the sector unprecedented influence over the legislative agenda.
The crypto political lobby worked so well this cycle because it made something complicated, like campaign finance, simple: Raise a ton of cash from a handful of donors and buy ad space in battleground states to either support candidates who back crypto or smear the candidates who don’t. It also required thinking of candidates as a bit of a binary: They were either with the industry or against it.
Crypto companies and their executives mobilized rapidly, and they successfully figured out how to deploy their cash through a sophisticated ad machine across the country. They also took cues from what big tech got wrong. Rather than spending hundreds of millions of dollars on lobbying legislators post-election, the crypto industry invested in targeting their opponents ahead of the election so they wouldn’t have to deal with them at all the next few years.
For over a year, Moreno was grilled by Silicon Valley heavy hitters like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and David Sacks about blockchain technology, digital asset policy and the shifting terrain of global finance.
“They didn’t just jump in head first,” Moreno said, describing the scores of meetings that stretched back to his run in the primary. “We had to build a lot of trust.”
Moreno also met with Coinbase co-founders Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam as well as policy chief Faryar Shirzad. Armstrong and Ehrsam did not respond to CNBC’s request, through Coinbase, for comment about the meetings.
Coinbase is the largest digital asset exchange in the U.S. and has been battling the Securities and Exchange Commission in court for over a year. The company was the crypto kingmaker in the 2024 cycle, giving more than $75 million to a super PAC called Fairshake. It was one of the top spending committees of any industry this cycle and exclusively gave to pro-crypto candidates running for Congress. Fairshake’s candidates won virtually every race that it funded in the general election.
“Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics,” Coinbase’s Armstrong wrote on X following Moreno’s victory.
As the price of bitcoin has multiplied by about sixfold in the past four years, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has taken major crypto players like Coinbase and Ripple to court for allegedly selling unregistered securities and has avoided working with companies to develop new specialized regulations.
Meanwhile, Sen. Brown sided with the expressly anti-crypto Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in targeting crypto for allegedly funding terrorist organizations, including Hamas. Brown became more vocal in calling for crackdowns of the industry after the failure of crypto exchange FTX in late 2022.
As FTX was spiraling into bankruptcy, Brown on Nov. 10 retweeted a post from the Senate Banking Committee calling the event “a loud warning bell that cryptocurrencies can fail” and can “have a ripple effect on consumers and other parts of our financial system.”
The bipartisan Fairshake won all but three races in the general election, spending big on Republicans and Democrats gunning for key seats. Protect Progress, a PAC affiliated with Fairshake, gave more than $10 million apiece to Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona and Michigan. Both won. Defend American Jobs, another one of Fairshake’s affiliated PACs, spent more than $3 million to support Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, who will take the former seat of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin when the new session gets underway in 2025.
In California, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter lost a Senate primary after Fairshake spent more than $10 million on ads against her.
“I was, like, ‘What the heck is Fairshake?'” Porter told The New Yorker.
How tech bros made their pick
Those vetting Moreno wanted to understand what he would do differently than the current administration and regulatory regime, the senator-elect told CNBC in an interview.
“These are people who know how to vet investments, know how to vet people and they took that same discipline” with me, Moreno said.
It helped that he’d built a blockchain startup, a company called Champ Titles that digitizes automobile ticketing and registration.
“What they didn’t want was to put time, effort and energy behind somebody who, at the end, would be a disappointment,” Moreno said.
A spokesperson for Andreessen and Horowitz, who are co-founders of a venture firm bearing their names, declined to comment. Sacks, founder of Craft Ventures, didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for an interview.
Coinbase’s Shirzad met Moreno over breakfast in Washington in the spring. Moreno wasn’t an expert on the details of the policy issues he’d be pursuing but had a clear understanding of crypto technology and how it could be applied, Shirzad told CNBC in an interview.
“It was a really great meeting of minds between me as a policy guy and him as kind of a business guy that saw the potential of the technology,” Shirzad said.
Moreno was out of cash after spending all he had on a tough and expensive primary, said David McIntosh, an early backer of Moreno’s Senate bid and president of the Club for Growth, a conservative organization that focuses on American economic issues. Fairshake played a crucial role for Moreno’s campaign starting in the summer, McIntosh said.
Moreno’s victory over Brown “sent a really strong signal to Washington that the voters are going to support candidates who are pro-blockchain,” McIntosh said.
McIntosh noted that the Club for Growth spent $6.5 million to help Moreno with advertising in the primary through its different super PACs, including the Bitcoin Freedom Fund.
Brown’s office didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
Brown told Politico he hasn’t ruled out running for Vice President-elect JD Vance’s open Senate seat in Ohio, which will be filled by special election in 2026.
Moreno benefited from branding himself as the “change” candidate while Brown “became a defender of the status quo,” Shirzad said.
“Crypto thematically is a change issue,” Shirzad said. “It appeals to not only a younger demographic, but it also appeals to voters who want to change.”
Fairshake declined to comment on whether it would spend to block another Brown Senate run, but the super PAC has already raised $78 million for the 2026 midterms.
“We stuck to our core strategy from Day 1, supported pro-crypto candidates and opposed those who played politics with jobs and innovation, and won,” Fairshake told CNBC in a statement.
‘Most pro-crypto Congress ever’
The past two election cycles featured spending from the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March for stealing more than $8 billion worth of customer money through FTX.
This year’s contributor list was more robust but saw large sums of funding come from companies that have been at odds with SEC Chair Gensler for years. That includes Coinbase and blockchain giant Ripple Labs. Prominent venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, which has a large portfolio of crypto companies, was one of the other primary contributors.
A lot of crypto’s big names also gave significantly in 2024.
FEC filings show Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss were among the largest individual crypto donors this election cycle, giving a combined $10.1 million. Top executives from Ripple contributed millions, led by billionaire founder Chris Larsen, who gave around $12 million this cycle.
Coinbase CEO Armstrong gave over $1.3 million to a mix of PACs including Fairshake and JD Vance for Senate Inc. He also gave directly to Democrats and Republicans running for House and Senate seats. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal attended at least two Trump fundraisers, including one in Nashville, Tennessee, on the sidelines of the biggest bitcoin event of the year.
Kraken Chairman Jesse Powell donated over $1 million to the Trump campaign.
Other individual crypto contributors include ex-Bitfinex strategy chief Phil Potter (over $1.6 million), Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani ($878,600), Paradigm co-founder Fred Ehrsam ($735,400), Union Square Ventures partner Fred Wilson ($1,4 million), Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla ($198,500), BitGo CEO Mike Belshe ($119,825), Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko ($67,100), and Xapo Bank founder Wences Casares ($374,899).
This week, Armstrong reportedly met with the president-elect to discuss appointments. Within a day, conversations swirled about the potential for the White House’s first crypto czar. By the end of the week, SEC Chair and longtime crypto foe Gensler, whose term doesn’t expire until June 2026, announced he was retiring on inauguration day.
One of Trump’s promises to his crypto fans on the campaign was that he would fire the SEC head and choose crypto-friendly regulators if elected. Gensler may have taken a look at the pressure that faces him across Washington and decided it just wasn’t worth trying to stick it out.
“Welcome to America’s most pro-crypto Congress ever,” Armstrong wrote on X on Nov. 5.
Environment
Data centers powering artificial intelligence could use more electricity than entire cities
Published
3 hours agoon
November 23, 2024By
admin
An Amazon Web Services data center in Ashburn, Virginia, US, on Sunday, July 28, 2024.
Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The power needs of artificial intelligence and cloud computing are growing so large that individual data center campuses could soon use more electricity than some cities, and even entire U.S. states, according to companies developing the facilities.
The electricity consumption of data centers has exploded along with their increasingly critical role in the economy in the past 10 years, housing servers that power the applications businesses and consumers rely on for daily tasks.
Now, with the advent of artificial intelligence, data centers are growing so large that finding enough power to drive them and enough suitable land to house them will become increasingly difficult, the developers say. The facilities could increasingly demand a gigawatt or more of power — one billion watts — or about twice the residential electricity consumption of the Pittsburgh area last year.
Technology companies are in a “race of a lifetime to global dominance” in artificial intelligence, said Ali Fenn, president of Lancium, a company that secures land and power for data centers in Texas. “It’s frankly about national security and economic security,” she said. “They’re going to keep spending” because there’s no more profitable place to deploy capital.
Renewable energy alone won’t be sufficient to meet their power needs. Natural gas will have to play a role, developers say, which will slow progress toward meeting carbon dioxide emissions targets.
(See here for which stocks are helping to fix the nation’s power grid.)
Regardless of where the power comes from, data centers are now at a scale where they have started “tapping out against the existing utility infrastructure,” said Nat Sahlstrom, chief energy officer at Tract, a Denver-based company that secures land, infrastructure and power resources for such facilities.
And “the funnel of available of land in this country that’s industrial zone land that can fit the data center use case — it’s becoming more and more constrained,” said Sahlstrom, who previously led Amazon’s energy, water and sustainability teams.
Beyond Virginia
As land and power grow more limited, data centers are expanding into new markets outside the long-established global hub in northern Virginia, Sahlstrom said. The electric grid that serves Virginia is facing looming reliability problems. Power demand is expected to surge, while supply is falling due to the retirement of coal- and some natural gas-powered plants.
Tract, for example, has assembled more than 23,000 acres of land for data center development across the U.S., with large holdings in Maricopa County, Arizona — home to Phoenix — and Storey County, Nevada, near Reno.
Tract recently bought almost 2,100 acres in Buckeye, Arizona with plans to develop the land into one of the largest data center campuses in the country. The privately-held company is working with utilities to secure up to 1.8 gigawatts of power for the site to support as many as 40 individual data centers.
For context, a data center campus with peak demand of one gigawatt is roughly equivalent to the average annual consumption of about 700,000 homes, or a city of around 1.8 million people, according to a CNBC analysis using data from the Department of Energy and Census Bureau.
A data center campus that size would use more power in one year than retail electric sales in Alaska, Rhode Island or Vermont, according to Department of Energy data.
A gigawatt-size data center campus running at even the lower end of peak demand is still roughly comparable to about 330,000 households, or a city of more than 800,000 people — about the population of San Francisco.
The average size of individual data centers operated by the major tech companies is currently around 40 megawatts, but a growing pipeline of campuses of 250 megawatts or more is coming, according to data from the Boston Consulting Group.
The U.S. is expected see a growing number of data center campuses of 500 megawatts or more, equivalent to half a gigawatt, in the 2030s through mid-2040s, according to the BCG data. Facilities of that size are comparable to about 350,000 homes, according to CNBC’s analysis.
“Certainly the average size of the data centers is increasing at a rapid pace from now to 2030,” said Vivian Lee, managing director and partner at BCG.
Community impact
Texas has become an increasingly attractive market due to a less burdensome regulatory environment and abundant energy resources that are more easily tailored to specific sites, Sahlstrom said. “Texas is probably the world’s best experiment lab to deploy your own power solution,” the energy officer said.
Houston-based Lancium set up shop in 2017 with the idea of bringing large electric loads closer to abundant renewable energy resources in west and central Texas, said Fenn, the company’s president. Originally focused on cryptocurrency mining, Lancium later shifted its focus to providing power for artificial intelligence with the advent of ChatGPT in late 2022.
Today, Lancium has five data center campuses in various stages of development. A 1,000-acre campus in Abilene is expected to open in the first quarter of 2025 with 250 megawatts of power that will ramp up to 1.2 gigawatts in 2026.
The minimum power requirement for Lancium’s data center customers is now a gigawatt, and future plans involve scaling them up to between three and five gigawatts, Fenn said.
For data centers that size, developers have to ensure that electricity costs in neighboring communities don’t rise as a consequence and that grid reliability is maintained, Fenn said. Pairing such facilities with new power generation is crucial, she said.
“The data centers have to partner with utilities, the system operators, the communities, to really establish that these things are assets to the grid and not liabilities to the grid,” Fenn said. “Nobody’s going to keep approving” such developments if they push up residential and commercial electric rates.
Renewables not enough
Data center campuses run by publicly-traded Equinix are rising to several hundred megawatts from 100- to 200 megawatts, said Jon Lin, general manager for data center services at the company. Equinix is one of the largest data center operators in the world with 260 facilities spread across 72 metropolitan areas in the U.S. and abroad.
Developers prefer carbon-free renewable energy, but they also see solar and wind alone as unable to meet current demand due to their reliance on changing weather conditions.
Some of the most critical workloads for the world’s economy, such as financial exchanges, run at data centers operated by Equinix, Lin said. Equinix’s data centers are online more than 99% of the time and outages are out of the question, the executive said.
“The firmness of the power is still incredibly important for these data centers, and so doing that solely off of local renewables is candidly just not an option,” Lin said.
The major technology companies are some of the largest purchasers of renewable power in the U.S., but they are increasingly turning to nuclear in search of more reliable sources of electricity. Microsoft is supporting the restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania through a power purchase agreement. Amazon and Alphabet’s Google are investing in small nuclear reactors.
But building new nuclear reactors is expensive and fraught with delays. Two new reactors in Georgia recently came online years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget.
In the short run, natural gas will fuel much of the power demanded by data centers, Lancium’s Fenn said. Gas is the main, short-term power source providing the reliability these facilities require, Boston Consulting Group’s Lee said.
Investments could be made in new gas generation that adds carbon capture and battery storage technology over time to mitigate the environmental impact, Lee said.
The industry hopes that gas demand will taper off as renewables expand, battery storage costs come down and AI helps data centers operate more efficiently, Fenn said. But in the near term, there’s no question that data center expansion is disrupting technology companies’ emissions targets, she said.
“Hopefully, it’s a short term side step,” Fenn said of stepped-up natural gas usage. “What I’m seeing amongst our data center partners, our hyperscale conversations, is we cannot let this have an adverse effect on the environmental goals.”
Note: CNBC analysis assumes a data center campus is continuously utilizing 85% of its peak demand of a gigawatt throughout the year, for a total consumption of 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours. Analysis uses national averages for household electricity consumption from EIA and household size from Census Bureau.
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