COVID cases could hit 100,000 a day, Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned – but he confirmed England will not yet move to the government’s plan B for dealing with pressures on hospitals this winter.
Speaking at a Downing Street news conference on Wednesday, Mr Javid cautioned that the coronavirus pandemic “is not over”.
“Thanks to the vaccination programme, the link between hospitalisations and deaths has significantly weakened, but it’s not broken,” the health secretary said.
“So we must all remember that this virus will be with us for the long term and remains a threat to our loved ones, and a threat to the progress that we’ve made in getting our nation closer to normal life.”
On Wednesday, the UK recorded 49,139 new COVID-19 cases – the eighth day in a row that infections have been above 40,000 – and 179 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.
Mr Javid said that current COVID deaths “remain mercifully low” – an assertion later questioned by one SAGE scientist – and the health secretary added he does not believe the current pressures on the NHS are “unsustainable”.
Mr Javid previously warned of coronavirus cases reaching 100,000 a day this summer ahead of COVID restrictions being lifted on “freedom day”.
Although cases did later rise to a summer peak of around 60,000 in one day in mid-July, they subsequently began to fall.
However, a recent rise in cases has led to calls for ministers to enact plan B of their autumn and winter COVID response strategy.
Under the government’s plan B, contingency measures could include the reintroduction of a legal requirement to wear face coverings in some settings; the potential introduction of COVID vaccine passports; and the possible return of the work from home command.
But Mr Javid said he would not yet be reintroducing COVID measures in England.
“We’re looking closely at the data and we won’t be implementing our plan B of contingency measures at this point,” he told the news conference.
“But we’ll be staying vigilant, preparing for all eventualities, while strengthening our vital defences that can help us fight back against this virus.”
The health secretary also urged people to take “little steps” that would make a “big difference”.
These include meeting others outdoors where possible, ensuring good ventilation, voulntarily wearing masks in crowded spaces and taking lateral flow tests.
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‘Landmark’ antiviral deals announced
“We’ve come so far thanks to the efforts of so many, but with winter ahead, we can’t blow it now,” Mr Javid said.
He also appeared to link the possible reintroduction of COVID measures this winter to the success of the booster jabs programme in the coming weeks.
The health secretary said that getting a top-up vaccination – which are being made available to the most vulnerable and over-50s – was “not just to save lives, but to keep your freedoms too”.
“Because all of these precious moments that we’ve been able to restore over the past few months – the loved ones we’ve been able to see and the collective experiences we’ve been able to share – they’ve been possible thanks to our vaccination programme and because so many of you came forward when it was your time,” he added.
“If we want to secure these freedoms for the long-term than the best thing we can do is come forward once again when that moment comes.
“After the decisive steps that we’ve taken this year, none of us want to go backwards now.”
Urging people to get vaccinated against both COVID and flu, Mr Javid said: “If we all play our part, then we can give ourselves the best possible chance in this race, get through this winter, and enjoy Christmas with our loved ones.”
Professor Stephen Powis, the national medical director of NHS England, said the health service was “very, very busy indeed” but added there was no one number of COVID admissions to hospitals that would trigger fresh interventions.
“What’s happening in one part of the country might not be happening in another part of the country,” he told the news conference.
“That’s been typical of the pandemic over the last 18 months and it’s possible that we will see that variation again.”
Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said the country was going into winter with a “really high level” of COVID cases.
“What we can see is that the cases now are almost as high as they were in July and actually not far off where they were last winter,” she said.
“What we are not seeing is that dip down again at the other side of the peak and that is really important because we are kicking off the winter at a really high level of cases.
“Fortunately that is not currently working through into serious disease and deaths.”
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Sajid Javid is asked why Tory MPs were not wearing face masks during Prime Minister’s Questions
The antiviral drugs, if approved by the medicines regulator, are expected to be given to those most at risk from the virus, helping to reduce the severity of symptoms and ease pressure on the NHS.
Amid mounting concern about rising cases, Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation which represents health bodies, has warned the country risks “stumbling into a winter crisis”.
And he has called on the government to enact “Plan B” of its strategy for coping with autumn and winter pressures on hospitals “without delay”.
Mr Taylor also called for a “plan C” to be outlined to health leaders, should the measures in Plan B prove to be “insufficient”.
Labour’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth accused Mr Javid of “complacency” at the Downing Street news conference.
“The so-called wall of defence against Covid is crumbling and today we needed a plan to rebuild it,” he said.
Responding to Mr Javid’s assertion that current COVID deaths “remain mercifully low”, SAGE member Professor Susan Michie posted on Twitter: “What kind of mercy is this?”
Sir Keir Starmer will launch his plan to deliver millions more appointments across the NHS and to reduce waiting times to 18 weeks over the next five years.
The prime minister will lay out how greater access to community diagnostic centres (CDCs) will help deliver up to half a million more appointments, alongside 14 new surgical hubs and three expanded existing hubs.
Up to a million appointments could be freed up by giving patients the choice to forego follow-up appointments currently booked by default, the government says.
Overall, the plan will involve a drive to deliver two million extra appointments by the end of next year.
The aim of the reforms is that by the end of March 2026, an extra 450,000 patients will be treated within 18 weeks.
Figures published by NHS England last month showed an estimated 7.54 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of October – the lowest figure since March 2024.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the last time the NHS met the target of 92% of patients receiving treatment within 18 weeks was in 2015.
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The reforms for England will also see an overhaul of the NHS app to give patients greater choice over where they choose to have their appointment and will also provide greater detail to the patient including their results and waiting times.
The first step in the digital overhaul will be completed by March 2025, when patients at over 85% of acute trusts will be able to view their appointment details via the NHS app, the government said.
They’ll also be able to contact their provider and receive updates, including how long they are likely to wait for treatment.
In the effort to free-up one million appointments, patients will be given more choice over non-essential follow up appointments, while GPs will also be given funding to receive specialist advice from doctors before they make any referrals.
Sir Keir is expected to say: “This government promised change and that is what I am fighting every day to deliver.
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1:37
Streeting: ‘We’re going as far and as fast as we can’
“NHS backlogs have ballooned in recent years, leaving millions of patients languishing on waiting lists, often in pain or fear. Lives on hold. Potential unfulfilled.
“This elective reform plan will deliver on our promise to end the backlogs. Millions more appointments. Greater choice and convenience for patients. Staff once again able to give the standard of care they desperately want to.”
The CDCs will be open 12 hours a day and seven days a week wherever possible. Patients will be able to access a broader range of appointments in locations that are more convenient for them and which may speed up the pace of treatment.
There have been some concerns that giving patients choice of the location of their treatment may see some hospitals in greater demand than others – but Health Secretary Wes Streeting said this was a “matter of principle”.
“When I was diagnosed with kidney cancer, I was inundated with colleagues in parliament who were asking who my surgeon was, whether I was going to the best place for treatment, whether I was exercising my right to choose in the NHS,” he said.
“Now, it turned out I had one of the best kidney cancer surgeons in the country assigned to me by the NHS, so I was lucky.
“But frankly, someone like my mum as a cleaner should have as much choice and power in the NHS as her son, the health secretary.”
NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard said the government’s plan was an “ambitious blueprint”.
“The radical reforms in this plan will not only allow us to deliver millions more tests, appointments and operations, but do things differently too – boosting convenience and putting more power in the hands of patients, especially through the NHS app.”
For British politicians, the question of the moment is how do you handle Elon Musk?
The billionaire owner of X and Tesla, soon to take up a role as efficiency tsar in the Trump administration, has been throwing grenades almost every hour about British politics on his social media platform and dominating the headlines.
Much of it is inflammatory claims about Keir Starmer and his government – despite their efforts to build good relations with Donald Trump.
And until today, enthusiastic backing for Nigel Farage, who only in mid-December met Musk in the glitzy surroundings of Mar-a-Lago to talk money, amid reports he was considering a $100m donation to Reform.
Then bam! – after Farage repeatedly hailed Musk as a “hero” who made Reform “look cool” and was looking forward to a chat at Trump’s inauguration – the tables have turned rather dramatically.
His change of heart comes after Musk has spent days intensively tweeting about grooming gangs in the UK, and his support for jailed far right activist Tommy Robinson, who has seized on this issue.
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Farage, who has tried to distance himself from Robinson for most of his career, thinks this is the reason for the fall out, responding that he was surprised but added: “My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles.”
Last week, Musk posted a series of tweets calling for Robinson – real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – to be released from prison, where he is serving an 18-month sentence for contempt of court for repeating false allegations against a Syrian refugee.
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2:09
Grooming victim’s father, Marlon West, speaks to Sky News.
What does this spat mean for Reform?
In the short-term, Reform would hardly have wanted an unexpected falling out just as they are trumpeting rising membership figures and Farage is poised to meet him in Washington.
But Farage sees Robinson as toxic for his brand, and a distraction from his mission of building a campaign machine to fight the next UK general election – even if he loses powerful friends.
The prospect of a donation from Musk – who has donated huge sums to Donald Trump’s campaign, would have been an enticing one, but there were already significant legal questions around it, under UK election rules.
Farage’s friendship with Trump, going back to his first term as president, also does not seem to have been affected, so a hotline to the White House is still possible.
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3:17
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has told Sky News that Tommy Robinson is not welcome in his party.
What does it mean for Starmer and Labour?
It’s unclear what Trump thinks about Musk’s recent obsession with British politics altogether – as he rails against Keir Starmer and other US allies hour by hour, and whether this online trolling will be tolerated after he takes up his job in the White House.
This is a question that Labour officials are eagerly awaiting the answer to, although there may be some relief that the criticism is now being turned on Farage.
Musk has – in the last day or two alone – made a series of incendiary and unfounded accusations against Starmer, claiming he was “complicit in the rape of Britain”, that he is “guilty of terrible crimes” and questioning whether he, as director of public prosecutions, “allowed rape gangs to exploit young girls without facing justice?”
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, doing interviews today, said Musk’s criticism was “completely ill-judged and ill-founded” and that Starmer had done a huge amount to support victims and achieve prosecutions in grooming cases. But largely, the government are trying to ignore the noise.
Kemi Badenoch was accused of dancing to Musk’s tune by calling for a national inquiry into grooming gangs – the Conservatives having rejected one when in government just two years ago.
An unelected US-based billionaire is now setting a cat among the pigeons for all parties in Britain – and throwing issues into the limelight which none will find easy to ignore.