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Middle-income earners are likely to be worse off next year due to inflation and tax rises, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

IFS director Paul Johnson was delivering the organisation’s analysis of the budget presented by Chancellor Rishi Sunak on Wednesday.

Mr Sunak had labelled it a “budget to usher in a new age of optimism”, but Mr Johnson described it as a budget of “spending increases and a worrying outlook for living standards”.

Mr Johnson said: “A middle earner is likely to be worse off next year than this, as high rates of inflation and tax rises more than negate small average wage increases.

“This of course comes on top of a decade of historically feeble increases in real incomes.”

He said the situation was “undermined more by Brexit than by the pandemic”, adding that the problems faced would see living standards “barely rising and, for many, falling over the next year”.

Mr Johnson said there was a “staggering” gap between what might have been expected on the basis of pre-financial crisis trends and what is actually happening.

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Average gross earnings “could have been some 40% higher had pre-crisis trends continued”, he said.

“The primacy of asset accumulation, and the importance of asset holdings, over the possibility of getting better off through earnings, is being maintained well into a second decade.”

But it is not just middle-income earners who are facing challenges – those who rely on some form of benefit will also find themselves worse off.

A rise in welfare payments of around 3% would likely be overtaken by high inflation, Mr Johnson said, a day after Mr Sunak had said that inflation is expected to average 4% over the coming year.

Labour and Conservative voters have similar opinions on tax rises to fund budget

Polling company Savanta ComRes asked 1,008 adults across the UK if they would support or oppose paying more tax to fund the commitments made by Rishi Sunak in the budget.

Most people (37%) said they would oppose higher taxes (29% supported) but when broken down into Conservative and Labour voters the difference was minimal.

Out of voters who supported the Conservatives in the 2019 election, 34% supported tax rises and 36% opposed.

Of those who voted Labour in the last election, 32% (2% lower than Tory) supported tax rises and 36% opposed (same as Tory).

The increase in the national living wage and cut to the universal credit taper would also “seem less generous” when weighed against inflation, Mr Johnson warned.

He added: “We are not at 1970s levels of inflation but we are now experiencing enough inflation that real pain will be felt as low-income households – most of whom have little in the way of financial assets – wait more than a year for their incomes to catch up.

“For some in work that may never happen.”

Tax and benefit changes have hit those on lower incomes and favoured the better off, leaving the working age benefit system substantially less generous than it was in 2015, Mr Johnson said.

Among those worst-affected are the childless unemployed, who have had no increase in out-of-work benefits for half a century, leaving their living standards “dramatically trailing those of the working majority”.

“The gap between the generosity of the furlough scheme and the meanness of our out of work benefit system could hardly be more stark.”

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‘Sticking to Labour manifesto pledge costs millions of workers’, Resolution Foundation says

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'Sticking to Labour manifesto pledge costs millions of workers', Resolution Foundation says

Sticking to Labour’s manifesto pledge and freezing income tax thresholds rather than raising income tax has hurt low- and middle-income earners, an influential thinktank has said.

Millions of these workers “would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen”, according to the Resolution Foundation’s chief executive, Ruth Curtice.

“Ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners”, she said.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in her budget speech that the point at which people start paying higher rates of tax has been held. It means earners are set to be dragged into higher tax bands as they get pay rises.

The chancellor felt unable to raise income tax as the Labour Party pledged not to raise taxes on working people in its election manifesto.

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Budget: What does the public think?

But many are saying that pledge was broken regardless, as the tax burden has increased by £26bn in this budget.

When asked by Sky News whether Ms Reeves would accept she broke the manifesto pledge, she said:

More on Budget 2025

“I do recognise that yesterday I have asked working people to contribute a bit more by freezing those thresholds for a further three years from 2028.”

“I do recognise that that will mean that working people pay a bit more, but I’ve kept that contribution to an absolute minimum”.

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The Resolution Foundation thinktank, which aims to raise living standards, welcomed measures designed to support people with the cost of living, such as the removal of the two-child benefit cap, which limited the number of children families could claim benefits for.

Read more:
Budget 2025: The key points at a glance
Budget calculator: See how your finances have changed

The announced reduction in energy bills through the removal of as yet unspecified levies was similarly welcomed.

The chancellor said bills would become £150 cheaper a year, but the foundation said typical energy bills will fall by around £130 annually for the next three years, “though support then fades away”.

More to come

This budget won’t be the last of it, Ms Curtice said, as economic growth forecasts have been downgraded by independent forecasters the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and growth is a “hurdle that remains to be cleared”.

“Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing budgets,” she added.

It comes despite Ms Reeves saying as far back as last year, there would be no more tax increases.

Ultimately, though, the foundation said, “The great drumbeat of doom that preceded the chancellor’s big day turned out to be over the top: the forecasts came in better than many had feared.”

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour – and some now feel betrayed

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour - and some now feel betrayed

Hitchin in Hertfordshire does well in the polls.

On the edge of the Chilterns and 30 minutes from central London by train, it’s Britain’s most expensive market town for first-time buyers. It’s also been voted one of the top 10 best, and top 20 happiest, places to live in the country.

Last summer Labour did well in the polls here too. Hitchin’s 35,000 inhabitants, with above average earnings, levels of employment, and higher education, ejected the Conservatives for the first time in more than 50 years.

Money latest: What the budget means for your money

Having swept into affluent southern constituencies, Rachel Reeves is now asking them to help pay for her plans via a combination of increased taxes on earnings and savings.

While her first budget made business bear the brunt of tax rises, the higher earners of Hitchin, and those aspiring to join them, are unapologetically in the sights of the second.

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How will the budget impact your money?

Kai Walker, 27, runs Vantage Plumbing & Heating, a growing business employing seven engineers, all earning north of £45,000, with ambition to expand further.

He’s disappointed that the VAT threshold was not reduced – “it makes us 20% less competitive than smaller players” – and does not love the prospect of his fiancee paying per-mile to use her EV.

But it’s the freeze on income tax thresholds that will hit him and his employees hardest, inevitably dragging some into the 40% bracket, and taking more from those already there.

“It seems like the same thing year on end,” he says. “Work harder, pay more tax, the thresholds have been frozen again until 2031, so it’s just a case where we see less of our money. Tax the rich has been a thing for a while or, you know, but I still don’t think that it’s fair.

“I think with a lot of us working class, it’s just a case of dealing with the cost. Obviously, we hope for change and lower taxes and stuff, but ultimately it’s a case of we do what we’re told.”

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‘We are asking people to contribute’

Reeves’s central pitch is that taxes need to rise to reset the public finances, support the NHS, and fund welfare increases she had promised to cut.

In Hitchin’s Market Square it has been heard, but it is strikingly hard to find people who think this budget was for them.

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OBR gives budget verdict

Jamie and Adele Hughes both work, had their first child three weeks ago, and are unconvinced.

“We’re going to be paying more, while other people are going to be getting more money and they’re not going to be working. I don’t think it’s fair,” says Adele.

Jamie adds: “If you’re from a generation where you’re trying to do well for yourself, trying to do things which were once possible for everybody, which are not possible for everybody now, like buying a house, starting a family like we just have, it’s extremely difficult,” says Jamie.

Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election
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Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election

Liz Felstead, managing director of recruitment company Essential Results, fears the increase in the minimum wage will hit young people’s prospects hard.

“It’s disincentivising employers to hire younger people. If you have a choice between someone with five years experience or someone with none, and it’s only £2,000 difference, you are going to choose the experience.”

Read more:
Budget takes UK into uncharted territory to allow spending spree
Main budget announcements at a glance
Reeves reveals £26bn of tax rises
Cash ISA limit slashed – but some are exempt

After five years, the cost of living crisis has not entirely passed Hitchin by. In the market Kim’s World of Toys sells immaculately reconditioned and repackaged toys at a fraction of the price.

Demand belies Hitchin’s reputation. “The way that it was received was a surprise to us I think, particularly because it’s a predominantly affluent area,” says Kim. “We weren’t sure whether that would work but actually the opposite was true. Some of the affluent people are struggling as well as those on lower incomes.”

Customer Joanne Levy, shopping for grandchildren, urges more compassion for those who will benefit from Reeves’s spending plans: “The elderly, they’re struggling, bless them, the sick, people with young children, they are all struggling, even if they’re working they are struggling.”

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour – and some now feel betrayed

Published

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour - and some now feel betrayed

Hitchin in Hertfordshire does well in the polls.

On the edge of the Chilterns and 30 minutes from central London by train, it’s Britain’s most expensive market town for first-time buyers. It’s also been voted one of the top 10 best, and top 20 happiest, places to live in the country.

Last summer Labour did well in the polls here too. Hitchin’s 35,000 inhabitants, with above average earnings, levels of employment, and higher education, ejected the Conservatives for the first time in more than 50 years.

Money latest: What the budget means for your money

Having swept into affluent southern constituencies, Rachel Reeves is now asking them to help pay for her plans via a combination of increased taxes on earnings and savings.

While her first budget made business bear the brunt of tax rises, the higher earners of Hitchin, and those aspiring to join them, are unapologetically in the sights of the second.

👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How will the budget impact your money?

Kai Walker, 27, runs Vantage Plumbing & Heating, a growing business employing seven engineers, all earning north of £45,000, with ambition to expand further.

He’s disappointed that the VAT threshold was not reduced – “it makes us 20% less competitive than smaller players” – and does not love the prospect of his fiancee paying per-mile to use her EV.

But it’s the freeze on income tax thresholds that will hit him and his employees hardest, inevitably dragging some into the 40% bracket, and taking more from those already there.

“It seems like the same thing year on end,” he says. “Work harder, pay more tax, the thresholds have been frozen again until 2031, so it’s just a case where we see less of our money. Tax the rich has been a thing for a while or, you know, but I still don’t think that it’s fair.

“I think with a lot of us working class, it’s just a case of dealing with the cost. Obviously, we hope for change and lower taxes and stuff, but ultimately it’s a case of we do what we’re told.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘We are asking people to contribute’

Reeves’s central pitch is that taxes need to rise to reset the public finances, support the NHS, and fund welfare increases she had promised to cut.

In Hitchin’s Market Square it has been heard, but it is strikingly hard to find people who think this budget was for them.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

OBR gives budget verdict

Jamie and Adele Hughes both work, had their first child three weeks ago, and are unconvinced.

“We’re going to be paying more, while other people are going to be getting more money and they’re not going to be working. I don’t think it’s fair,” says Adele.

Jamie adds: “If you’re from a generation where you’re trying to do well for yourself, trying to do things which were once possible for everybody, which are not possible for everybody now, like buying a house, starting a family like we just have, it’s extremely difficult,” says Jamie.

Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election
Image:
Hitchen ditched the Conservatives for Labour at the 2024 election

Liz Felstead, managing director of recruitment company Essential Results, fears the increase in the minimum wage will hit young people’s prospects hard.

“It’s disincentivising employers to hire younger people. If you have a choice between someone with five years experience or someone with none, and it’s only £2,000 difference, you are going to choose the experience.”

Read more:
Budget takes UK into uncharted territory to allow spending spree
Main budget announcements at a glance
Reeves reveals £26bn of tax rises
Cash ISA limit slashed – but some are exempt

After five years, the cost of living crisis has not entirely passed Hitchin by. In the market Kim’s World of Toys sells immaculately reconditioned and repackaged toys at a fraction of the price.

Demand belies Hitchin’s reputation. “The way that it was received was a surprise to us I think, particularly because it’s a predominantly affluent area,” says Kim. “We weren’t sure whether that would work but actually the opposite was true. Some of the affluent people are struggling as well as those on lower incomes.”

Customer Joanne Levy, shopping for grandchildren, urges more compassion for those who will benefit from Reeves’s spending plans: “The elderly, they’re struggling, bless them, the sick, people with young children, they are all struggling, even if they’re working they are struggling.”

Continue Reading

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