Attacks by Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan have become more deadly since the withdrawal of NATO forces, with at least 346 civilians killed by the group since late August.
The insurgents carried out bombings in areas where previously they had little presence. A security expert told Sky News this could be a sign of the group’s growing strength.
Earlier this week, US Pentagon officials suggested ISIS-K intended to carry out attacks against the West and could have the ability to do so within six months.
The group is an affiliate of Islamic State based in South and Central Asia and are ideologically opposed to the Taliban’s nationalist view of Afghanistan, instead seeking to establish an Islamic State across the region.
During and after the US withdrawal, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have carried out a suspected 21 attacks in Afghanistan.
The deadliest of these was on 26 August when a suicide bomb at Kabul’s main airport killed 170 civilians and 13 US marines.
Since then, there have been several ISIS-K attacks across Afghanistan, including seven between 18 September – 6 October that killed 18 people.
On 8 October an ISIS-K suicide bomber targeted a Hazara mosque in the northern city of Kunduz, killing at least 43 people.
The picture below shows the damage caused by the bomb inside the mosque.
Shortly after, between 8-12 October, five attacks in four days around Jalalabad, an ISIS-K stronghold, targeted both the Taliban and civil society activists.
A few days later on 15 October, CCTV captured two men attacking a Shia mosque in Kandahar, in the south of the country.
At least 47 people were killed in the suicide attack carried out when prayers were underway in the courtyard of the mosque.
The footage shows the attackers entering the mosque and detonating a device.
At least five further attacks have occurred since the 15 October mosque attack in Kandahar, meaning around 408 people have been killed by ISIS-K in Afghanistan since August 26, including 346 civilians.
This level of ISIS-K attacks is not unprecedented. In 2018 they were responsible for more deaths globally than all but three other terrorist groups that year. Operations by the Afghan government and NATO forces helped reduce the threat throughout 2019 and 2020.
But now the number of attacks is rising again, with civilian casualties in October 2021 alone higher than in the first nine months of 2020.
Many of these attacks have taken place in the east of the country in Nangarhar province, where ISIS-K has a strong presence.
The Taliban has retaliated, with reports of people being dragged from their homes and killed in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar, for allegedly being ISIS-K members or supporters.
The worsening situation is only exacerbating the existing humanitarian crisis within Afghanistan. The UN has warned that without urgent humanitarian relief the country is on a “countdown to catastrophe”.
It already has one of the largest populations internationally facing acute hunger and it is estimated that up to a million children are at risk of starvation.
Who are ISIS-K?
They were formed in 2015 by disaffected members of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Uzbek Islamists and have a “cadre of a few thousand” fighters according to the US Department of Defence.
They want to establish an Islamic caliphate across the region and have targeted ethnic minorities such as Hazara Muslims as well as civil society activists, aid agencies, and the former Afghan government.
Yet many of their actions have been against the Taliban, with 11 of 20 of their fatal attacks carried out in Afghanistan since NATO’s withdrawal being aimed at the new governing group.
What has changed since the withdrawal?
The flurry of attacks highlight the challenge facing the Taliban, who are now expected to provide security across the country despite lacking the manpower, skills, and finance of the previous Afghan government.
Dr Antionio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute, said: “ISIS-K’s main enemy has always been the Taliban – there were relatively few incidents between them and the Americans previously.
“What’s different now is the spread of their activity across Afghanistan – Charikar, Kunduz, and Kandahar – these are places ISIS-K didn’t have overt activity before.
“The Islamic State sees the Taliban as being in a weak position right now as they are stretched very thin financially and militarily. Their manpower is taken up controlling the cities, so ISIS-K see now as the right time to strike.”
This week, a US Department of Defence official said that ISIS-K also intends to attack Western countries but that they don’t currently have the means to do so.
Analysis by Deborah Haynes, Security and Defence Editor
The big fear among western security chiefs is that Afghanistan again becomes a haven for terrorist groups to launch attacks against the United States, the UK and other allies.
Al-Qaeda was allowed to plan and direct the 2001 terror attacks on the United States from the country under the previous Taliban regime.
It prompted the US-led invasion to destroy the group’s training camps and hunt down and kill or capture its leaders.
But 20 years on, al-Qaeda militants are regrouping and still enjoy close links with the Taliban. At the same time, a new threat in the form of the Islamic State offshoot Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) has taken root.
Unlike al-Qaeda, ISIS-K is an enemy of the Taliban. Taliban leaders will also know that if the group is able to conduct attacks on the West from their soil they will face the possibility of US-led airstrikes and possibly even special forces raids inside Afghanistan once more.
It is not just the US that will be monitoring developments with ISIS-K closely.
For the threat to be controlled, the support of other external powers will likely be needed. According to Dr Guistozzi: “The Taliban can only consolidate with support of the regional powers, notably China and Russia. Both of these countries are against the Islamic State – ISIS-K fear Russia in particular and their ruthless airstrikes, like they carried out in Syria.”
Reporting: Jack Taylor and Kieran Devine
Maps and Digital Production: Ganesh Rao
Satellite imagery: Google Earth Data: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
There is a sense of impotent futility to the latest sanctions imposed by the UK on Russia in the wake of the Dawn Sturgess public inquiry report released today.
And it’s not just the UK.
For all Europe’s handwringing, rhetoric and sanctions, Vladimir Putin remains unmoved.
This week, he was more belligerent than ever, warning that while Russia does not want a war, if Europe starts one,it’s more than ready.
As we approach a fourth year of Russia’s war with Ukraine, the world is operating under new management and new rules, but the penny has not yet dropped in Europe.
The much-vaunted ‘rules-based world order’ is falling apart. America, so long its guardian, has deserted it and is now in league more and more with Russia.
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2:26
The role Putin played in Briton’s death
The Trump administration is more interested in the promise of renewed trading ties and business deals with Putin’s Russia, despite all its murderous faults.
Putin is winning on the battlefield, slowly but steadily, and Ukraine is running out of money. America has turned off the tap and is now acting as an arms dealer, selling Ukraine weapons via Europe.
Ukraine needs in excess of a hundred billion dollars a year to continue fighting. Europe is bickering over how to use frozen Russian assets to fund that.
And there is certainly no sign of European governments biting the bullet and asking taxpayers to do so instead.
The alternative way of stopping Russia’s grinding advance is sending troops to Ukraine, which remains out of the question.
So for now, we have just words and sanctions instead.
Sir Keir Starmer may wring his hands about the “Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives” in the wake of the inquiry into Dawn Sturgess’s death in Salisburyin 2018. It holds the Russian leader “morally responsible” for the Skripal poisoning.
But if Europe is not prepared to put its money where its rhetoric and sanctions are, does this add up to much more than posturing?
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2:19
Ukrainian troops react to Trump’s peace plan
European governments have for almost a year seemed in denial, acting like a cheated spouse. As America’s affections for Russia have become more and more obvious, Europe has hoped against hope to win back its partner.
The affair between Trump and Putin is now, it seems, in full sight.
America no longer wants to support either Europe or Ukraine, only to profit from arms sales to the conflict.
Tantalising deals dangled by Moscow are all it takes, it seems, to keep Donald Trump’s interest.
Substituting impotent sanctions and rhetoric for solid financial support for Ukraine at some point becomes worse than pointless.
It encourages Kyiv to carry on fighting, as Putin put it recently, “to the last Ukrainian” in the mistaken belief that Europe has its back.
The moment of reckoning approaches for Europe, but there is no sign of its leaders accepting that fact.
There is a desperate desire for normality in Gaza – for full shops, functioning hospitals, open schools, habitable homes and usable roads. For electricity that comes on reliably, skies that don’t hum with drones and days that don’t crackle with gunfire.
In Khan Younis, 54 couples got married at one enormous shared ceremony. The event attracted crowds who clambered on to a smashed-out building opposite the dais to wave at the brides and grooms, and to celebrate. Amid a grey landscape of dust and destruction, the image was one of colour and cheer.
It is a captivating vision of a better world, but it is an illusion. Gaza is still being ripped by tides of danger, violence and volatility. And it all sits within a cobweb of conflicting interests that makes security so precarious that you wonder how peace can ever return.
Take the past day or two. First, the Israeli military says that five of their soldiers have been injured after being attacked by Hamas fighters who may have emerged from hiding in tunnels.
Image: Palestinians celebrate a mass wedding ceremony in Khan Younis, on 2 December: Pic: AP
As has happened after all such incidents previously, Israel responds with a show of might – with an airstrike that, it says, was aimed at a senior Hamas official. In the ensuing fallout, civilians, including two children, are killed.
Israel also announces that it will open the Rafah Crossing, but only to allow people out of Gaza. Egypt says it won’t co-operate unless the crossing allows people to go in both directions. Israel, which suspects Egypt of offering financial support to Hamas, does not agree. Stalemate.
Also in Rafah, Yasser Abu Shabab, leader of a militant group that opposed Hamas and was getting covert backing from Israel, is killed, presumably by Hamas fighters. Exactly how they got into his territory is hard to guess, but his killing suggests that, far from being degraded, Hamas is once again exerting control.
And then there is the return of the remains of the penultimate hostage, Sudthisak Rinthalak, from Gaza to Israel. Only one body now remains to be handed back, that of police officer Ran Gvili, and once that has been returned, then we wonder what will happen next.
In theory, we enter Phase Two, which will see a flood of aid, the disarmament of Hamas, the rebuilding of Gaza and a new governance structure. But the obstacles ahead are monumental, ranging from questions about exactly who is going to take Hamas’s weapons away from them, to how Palestinians are going to feel about Gaza being governed by foreigners.
Image: Hostage Ran Gvili, whose remains have yet to be returned. Pic: AP
Sources say that a huge amount of effort has been invested, largely by American diplomats, soldiers, planners and business people, in trying to plan for this future. America has a huge co-ordination centre set up in southern Israel and President Trump believes that peace in the Middle East is his ticket to the Nobel Prize.
But it would be a huge – strike that, impossible – stretch of faith to think that these plans will come into play effortlessly. They won’t. The ambitions outlined in Phase Two are still little more than hopes.
For one thing, half of Gaza is still under Israeli military control and the IDF are not going anywhere. For another, the other half of Gaza is in a state of quasi-anarchy.
The idea of a military supervisory force has been signed off by the United Nations, but has not yet been created. Nor has a set of rules of engagement – imagine if an Egyptian military unit comes across a firefight between Hamas and a different militia – who would they shoot at first? What rules would cover their actions? How do you maintain peace in Gaza?
The questions go on into the distance. And, as long as Hamas regroups, so the concept of it then choosing to voluntarily disarm and largely disband seems harder and harder to believe. If that doesn’t happen, then Israel will not stop worrying about another October 7 attack.
We could go on like this, but the point is clear. The return of the final hostage will bring into play a mass of new questions, none of which appear to have answers. And for the people of Gaza, the anxiety of life will roll on.
The assassination attempt on a former Russian spy was authorised by Vladimir Putin, who is “morally responsible” for the death of a woman poisoned by the nerve agent used in the attack, a public inquiry has found.
The chairman, Lord Hughes, found there were “failings” in the management of Sergei Skripal, 74, who was a member of Russian military intelligence, the GRU, before coming to the UK in 2010 on a prisoner exchange after being convicted of spying for Britain.
But he found the assessment that he wasn’t at “significant risk” of assassination was not “unreasonable” at the time of the attack in Salisbury on 4 March 2018, which could only have been avoided by hiding him with a completely new identity.
Mr Skripal and his daughter Yulia, 41, who was also poisoned, were left seriously ill, along with then police officer Nick Bailey, who was sent to search their home, but they all survived.
Image: Sergei Skripal and Yulia Skripal.
Pic: Shutterstock
Dawn Sturgess, 44, died on 8 July, just over a week after unwittingly spraying herself with novichok given to her by her partner, Charlie Rowley, 52, in a perfume bottle in nearby Amesbury on 30 June 2018. Mr Rowley was left seriously ill but survived.
In his 174-page report, following last year’s seven-week inquiry, costing more than £8m, former Supreme Court judge Lord Hughes said she received “entirely appropriate” medical care but her condition was “unsurvivable” from a very early stage.
The inquiry found GRU officers using the aliases Alexander Petrov, 46, and Ruslan Boshirov, 47, had brought the Nina Ricci bottle containing the novichok to Salisbury after arriving in London from Moscow with a third agent known as Sergey Fedotov to kill Mr Skripal on 2 March.
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Image: L-R Suspects who used the names of Sergey Fedotov, Ruslan Boshirov and Alexander Petrov. Pics: UK Counter Terrorism Policing
The report said it was likely the same bottle Petrov and Boshirov used to apply the military-grade nerve agent to the handle of Mr Skripal’s front door before it was “recklessly discarded”.
“They can have had no regard to the hazard thus created, of the death of, or serious injury to, an uncountable number of innocent people,” it said.
It is “impossible to say” where Mr Rowley found the bottle, but was likely within a few days of it being abandoned on 4 March, meaning there is “clear causative link” with the death of mother-of-three Ms Sturgess.
Image: Novichok was in perfume bottle. Pic: Reuters
Lord Hughes said he was sure the three GRU agents “were acting on instructions”, adding: “I have concluded that the operation to assassinate Sergei Skripal must have been authorised at the highest level, by President Putin.
“I therefore conclude that those involved in the assassination attempt (not only Petrov, Boshirov and Fedotov, but also those who sent them, and anyone else giving authorisation or knowing assistance in Russia or elsewhere) were morally responsible for Dawn Sturgess’s death,” he said.
Russian ambassador summonsed
After the publication of the report, the government announced the GRU has been sanctioned in its entirety, and the Russian Ambassador has been summonsed to the Foreign Office to answer for Russia’s ongoing campaign of alleged hostile activity against the UK.
Sir Keir Starmer said the findings “are a grave reminder of the Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives” and that Ms Sturgess’s “needless” death was a tragedy that “will forever be a reminder of Russia’s reckless aggression”.
“The UK will always stand up to Putin’s brutal regime and call out his murderous machine for what it is,” the prime minister said.
He said deploying the “highly toxic nerve agent in a busy city centre was an astonishingly reckless act” with an “entirely foreseeable” risk that others beyond the intended target would be killed or injured.
The inquiry heard a total of 87 people presented at A&E.
Image: Pic AP
Lord Hughes said there was a decision taken not to issue advice to the public not to pick anything up which they hadn’t dropped, which was a “reasonable conclusion” at the time, so as not to cause “widespread panic”.
He also said there had been no need for training beyond specialist medics before the “completely unexpected use of a nerve agent in an English city”.
After the initial attack, wider training was “appropriate” and was given but should have been more widely circulated.
In a statement following the publication of his report, Lord Hughes said Ms Sturgess’s death was “needless and arbitrary”, while the circumstances are “clear but quite extraordinary”.
“She was the entirely innocent victim of the cruel and cynical acts of others,” he said.
Image: ‘We can finally put her to peace’ . Pic: Met Police/PA
‘We can have Dawn back now’
Speaking after the report was published, Ms Sturgess’s father, Stanley Sturgess, said: “We can have Dawn back now. She’s been public for seven years. We can finally put her to peace.”
In a statement, her family said they felt “vindicated” by the report, which recognised how Wiltshire police wrongly characterised Ms Sturgess as a drug user.
But they said: “Today’s report has left us with some answers, but also a number of unanswered questions.
“We have always wanted to ensure that what happened to Dawn will not happen to others; that lessons should be learned and that meaningful changes should be made.
“The report contains no recommendations. That is a matter of real concern. There should, there must, be reflection and real change.”
Wiltshire Police Chief Constable Catherine Roper admitted the pain of Ms Sturgess’s family was “compounded by mistakes made” by the force, adding: “For this, I am truly sorry.”
Russia has denied involvement
The Russian Embassy has firmly denied any connection between Russia and the attack on the Skripals.
But the chairman dismissed Russia’s explanation that the Salisbury and Amesbury poisonings were the result of a scheme devised by the UK authorities to blame Russia, and the claims of Petrov and Borisov in a television interview that they were sightseeing.
The inquiry chairman said the evidence of a Russian state attack was “overwhelming” and was designed not only as a revenge attack against Mr Skripal, but amounted to a “public statement” that Russia “will act decisively in its own interests”.
Lord Hughes found “some features of the management” of Mr Skripal “could and should have been improved”, including insufficient regular written risk assessments.
But although there was “inevitably” some risk of harm at Russia’s hands, the analysis that it was not likely was “reasonable”, he said.
“There is no sufficient basis for concluding that there ought to have been assessed to be an enhanced risk to him of lethal attack on British soil, such as to call for security measures,” such as living under a new identity or at a secret address, the chairman said.
He added that CCTV cameras, alarms or hidden bugs inside Mr Skripal’s house might have been possible but wouldn’t have prevented the “professionally mounted attack with a nerve agent”.
Sky News has approached the Russian Embassy for comment on the report.