What’s new for rugby’s top 10 nations this November series?
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Sam Bruce
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ESPN Associate Editor- Sam was brought up on long drives and the dusty fields of north-west New South Wales, where he developed his love of rugby from an early age. He joined ESPNscrum after a five-year stint heading up Fox Sports Australia’s digital rugby coverage.
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Tom Hamilton
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Senior Writer- • Joined ESPN in 2011
• Covered two Olympics, a pair of Rugby World Cups and two British & Irish Lions tours
• Previously rugby editor, and became senior writer in 2018
Welcome back to the November Test series.
After last year’s Autumn Nations Cup and the delayed Tri Nations, the northern and southern hemisphere nations will finally come together across Europe for a busy schedule of Test matches.
As it stands, the top three spots in the rankings are all held by the southern powerhouses. However, playing at home in conditions they know and love, the Home Unions and France will each fancy their chances of a rise up the Test ladder.
So what’s been going on this year? And exactly what shape is each nation from the current top 10 in?
Read on as we bring you up to speed.
No. 1 – South Africa
Tests: Wales, Nov. 6; Scotland, Nov. 13; England, Nov. 20.
Having emerged triumphant from a dramatic British & Irish Lions series, and back-to-back wins over the Pumas, an unusually inaccurate Springboks team then failed to adapt to Australia’s width and speed of recycle in successive defeats to the Wallabies. But South Africa raised their game again to face the All Blacks, with late penalty goals deciding two hugely physical and memorable encounters that finished one win apiece.
The Springbok blueprint for success hasn’t changed, and no matter of online chatter about the style of their play will force coach Jacques Nienaber and director of rugby Rassie Erasmus into a change of thinking. When it is executed with accuracy, the Springboks’ mixture of tactical kicking, relentless breakdown pressure from the “bomb squad”, and lineout superiority, is incredibly tough to wear down, as the All Blacks discovered in the closing weeks of the Rugby Championship.
The Boks will be hoping Handre Pollard has shaken off the worst of his form slump from his time in Australia, however, particularly with the indefatigable Faf de Klerk missing the November Tests through a hip injury. The Boks are also still without brilliant winger Cheslin Kolbe and 2019 World Player of the Year Pieter-Steph du Toit, who were both badly missed during the Rugby Championship. At their very best, the Boks are capable of a November sweep.
No. 2 – New Zealand
Tests: Wales, Oct. 30; Italy, Nov. 7; Ireland, No. 14; France, Nov. 21.
Last week’s training run in Washington D.C. extended the All Blacks’ season record to 10-1 for 2021, with a last-gasp loss to the Springboks in the Rugby Championship finale the only blemish in what is Ian Foster’s second season in charge. The coach was mid-year granted a two-year extension through to the next World Cup, just reward for retaining the Bledisloe Cup and Tri Nations/Rugby Championship crowns in each of the past two years.
On the paddock, the All Blacks are without their key backline lynchpin, Aaron Smith, for their northern tour. The veteran No. 9, who had been in sensational touch this year, remained in New Zealand for the birth of his second child after the Bledisloe Cup, and then was given the chance for some extended family time. Finlay Christie started against the States as a result, but you should expect Brad Weber and TJ Perenara to fight out the starting position for bigger Tests later in November.
Sam Cane, meanwhile, cautiously made his return from a pectoral injury on the weekend after six months out; Sam Whitelock, however, has been installed as the tour captain. Just where Foster lands on his back-row composition for the Tests against Ireland and France carries huge intrigue – so too whether the All Blacks can better manage the aerial assault that brought the Springboks success in both Townsville and the Gold Coast. Lock Brodie Retallick has also spoken of the need for greater focus and execution in the All Blacks’ lineout drive, after the pack had little success with the rolling maul against South Africa.
Nipping at the Boks’ heels, the All Blacks will be ready to pounce for the No. 1 ranking should South Africa slip up in any of its three November Tests.
No. 3 – Australia
Tests: Scotland, Nov. 7; England, Nov. 13; Wales, Nov. 20.
Dave Rennie has brought significant improvement to the Wallabies in just his second year in charge, coupled with changes on and off the field that have propelled Australia to a five-match winning streak. While it was far from convincing, the Wallabies’ 32-23 win over Japan last weekend reflected the team’s set-piece growth and ability to close games out, something that was badly missing in Rennie’s first season.
Earlier in the year, Australia boosted their confidence with a 2-1 series win over France in July. They then however quickly received a reality check from the All Blacks who romped away with a sweep of the Bledisloe Cup.
But the return of Samu Kerevi in the series’ final Test in Perth was to prove a turning point as the Wallabies then went on to record four straight wins to close out the Rugby Championship on the back of the centre’s powerhouse running. Quade Cooper’s return also provided backline stability.
Cue another twist in the Wallabies’ season, as Kerevi and Suntory teammate Sean McMahon decided to withdraw from the U.K. leg of Australia’s spring tour. Quade Cooper is expected to follow suit. How the Wallabies manage Kerevi’s absence, in particular, will go a long way to deciding whether their current 7-4 record for 2021 takes a hit or potentially even finishes with a squared ledger.
Northern rugby fans should keep an eye on back-rower Rob Valetini, who has grown with every Test in the gold jersey this season, while the return of Will Skelton and Rory Arnold should stiffen up the Wallabies pack.
No. 4 – England
Tests: Tonga, Nov. 6; Australia, Nov. 13; South Africa, Nov. 20.
Eddie Jones has drawn a line in the sand with his England squad for the November Tests. Billy Vunipola, Mako Vunipola and George Ford are all exiled, while he has welcomed in a host of young prospects as he moves this England team onto their next stage.
They have Tonga, Australia and South Africa lying in wait, and will be captained by Owen Farrell, who will likely feature at inside centre alongside the outstanding Marcus Smith at No. 10. Smith is just one of several exciting prospects to keep an eye on over the course of the November Tests with Sale scrum-half Raffi Quirke likely to feature, as is Newcastle winger Adam Radwan and Leicester fullback Freddie Steward. But their build-up was tainted by injuries to Luke Cowan-Dickie and Anthony Watson.
After a Six Nations which saw England finish fifth, and comfortable wins in the summer over the USA and Canada, England expect three from three this November from their new-look side. It’ll also be a new-look England coaching set-up behind the team, with Jones now joined by Martin Gleeson, Richard Cockerill, Matt Proudfoot and former Brisbane Broncos coach Anthony Seibold.
No. 5 – Ireland
Tests: Japan, Nov. 6; New Zealand, Nov. 13; Argentina, Nov. 21.
After a summer which saw them defeat Japan 39-31 and ease past the USA 71-10, expect to see a few of those fresh faces thrown into the mix for the November internationals, but this will be evolution, rather than revolution for Ireland. The Andy Farrell blueprint was laid out against England back in the final match of the Six Nations – a game Ireland won 32-18. That’s the Ireland the fans will want to see in their three Tests this autumn against Japan, New Zealand and Argentina.
Ireland have their injury concerns with captain Johnny Sexton currently nursing a hip injury, so Harry Byrne or Joey Carbery will be in the mix to start at least one of the three Tests at fly-half. Of the returning British & Irish Lions, Robbie Henshaw is yet to play this season due to a foot injury. But Simon Zebo earns a recall having last featured for Ireland in 2017.
Six of the players who won their first caps during the summer series have been included in the squad, with Robert Baloucoune, Byrne, Gavin Coombes, James Hume, Tom O’Toole and Nick Timoney all named, while there are two uncapped players named in Leinster duo Dan Sheehan and Ciaran Frawley. Expect to see a similar spine of the team that dominated England back in March as Ireland look to make it three from three this autumn.
No. 6 – France
Tests: Argentina, Nov. 6; Georgia, Nov. 14; New Zealand, Nov. 20.
With their home World Cup two years out, Fabien Galthie’s side will look to put down a statement this autumn against Argentina, New Zealand and Georgia. They fell 2-1 to Australia in a thrilling summer series but will look for a clean sweep this November.
With Charles Ollivon injured, Antoine Dupont will captain the side, having been picked ahead of Gael Fickou, Gregory Alldritt and Julien Marchand. Elsewhere, keep an eye on the fly-half situation and whether Matthieu Jalibert will get the not ahead of Romain Ntamack. Then there’s also the interesting subplot of which uncapped players will force their way in, with second-row Thibaud Flament at the forefront there.
France will be without Uini Atonio and Virimi Vakatawa through injury. This will be a true acid test of where France are, with the match against the All Blacks the barometer to judge whether they are on the right path to be challengers for rugby’s biggest prize in 2023.
No. 7 – Scotland
Tests: Tonga, Oct. 30; Australia, Nov. 7; South Africa, No. 13; Japan, Nov. 20.
This autumn will see us learn more about Scotland’s depth ahead of the 2023 World Cup, with Gregor Townsend’s men facing four matches. Up first is Tonga on October 30 – a match falling outside the international window – so Townsend is unable to pick Scotland players based in England or France. As a result, there will be plenty of new faces on show for that opener, and expect that to continue in their remaining three matches with 12 uncapped players in their 42-man squad for the autumn series as a whole.
Sale’s Ewan Ashman, Bath’s Josh Bayliss, Glasgow’s Rory Darge, Sharks’ Dylan Richardson, and Edinburgh quartet Luke Crosbie, Jamie Hodgson, Marshall Sykes and Pierre Schoeman are all included as forwards. Glasgow Warriors’ Jamie Dobie, Rufus McLean, Ross Thompson, and Sione Tuipulotu are the other four uncapped players.
Once Tonga have visited Murrayfield, Townsend’s side have Australia, South Africa and Japan up next, where the likes of Chris Harris, Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Jonny Gray, Rory Sutherland, Duhan van der Merwe, and Adam Hastings will come back into the mix. Scotland will be without and Mark Bennett due to injury.
Given Scotland’s gradual improvement under Townsend, they’ll expect at least three victories from four this autumn but like the other home unions, they face the challenge of getting their Lions contingent up to speed after their delayed start to the season.
No. 8 – Argentina
Tests: France, Nov. 6; Italy, Nov. 13; Ireland, Nov. 21.
It was not a happy Rugby Championship campaign for the Pumas, who were again forced to complete the entire tournament on the road. Six straight defeats have all but wiped the memory of their stellar performances of 2020 when, despite significant hurdles, they defeated the All Blacks, and twice drew with the Wallabies in a truncated Tri Nations. Six players and two staff were also caught up in a state border breach ahead of their Test with Australia on the Gold Coast.
Former skipper Pablo Matera was among those border busters, but he has still been included in the Pumas touring squad alongside prop Santiago Medrano. Fly-half Nico Sanchez should also be available, after he missed the closing three rounds of the Rugby Championship through injury.
Two years out from the World Cup, coach Mario Ledesma won’t want his side’s losing streak to really take root, putting huge pressure on the second of their three November Tests, against Italy, as matches against France and Ireland appear tough assignments. The Pumas were well off the pace in the Rugby Championship, but should be better suited to the style of play up north.
No. 9 – Wales
Tests: New Zealand, Oct. 30; South Africa, Nov. 6; Fiji, Nov. 14; Australia, Nov. 20.
Wayne Pivac’s Six Nations champions face a brutal November with New Zealand, South Africa and Australia all coming to town, and the squad will have a familiar look with just two uncapped players in the 38-man party. Scarlets prop WillGriff John and Exeter Chiefs’ 19-year-old second-row Christ Tshiunza will both hope to make their debuts, but Wales have got the spine of their team already established ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Alun Wyn Jones will look to add to his astonishing tally of 148 caps this autumn, and he is joined in the squad by their British & Irish Lions contingent. There’s also a recall for Rhys Priestland, who last featured for Wales in 2017, while Gareth Anscombe will look to play his first Test for Wales in two years after recovering from the major knee injury he suffered in August 2019.
But that first Test against the All Blacks will be an even tougher task for Wales given they won’t have their England-based players available, which will see them be without Dan Biggar, Taulupe Faletau and Louis Rees-Zammit, plus the likes of Nick Tompkins and Callum Sheedy.
For Pivac, the challenge will be to get this team back up to their 2021 Six Nations standards. By his own admission, several of the squad haven’t played that much rugby this season and haven’t yet found form, while they also have issues in the back-row with Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, James Botham, Josh Macleod and James Davies all injured, while Ellis Jenkins is unlikely to face New Zealand.
So, while Wales will be aiming for a clean sweep, this will be a true test of their depth.
No. 10 – Japan
Tests: Ireland, Nov. 6; Portugal, Nov. 13; Scotland, Nov. 20.
Japan have been one of the big losers of the pandemic in rugby’s Test arena, with the Brave Blossoms having played just three internationals since they exited their home World Cup in the quarterfinals. They were a late scratching from last year’s Autumn Nations Cup, before at last returning to the field against the British & Irish Lions and then Ireland in mid-2021
Given it was basically four months between those games and the weekend’s Test with the Wallabies, the 32-23 defeat was a fine effort against an Australian team hardened by the Rugby Championship. Jamie Joseph’s side were just four points adrift of the Wallabies with five to play, too, showing they are truly capable of mixing it with world rugby’s top 10.
The Brave Blossoms are superbly coached, understand how they want to play the game and boast a growing list of players of genuine attacking quality. With a little improvement at set-piece, Japan could worry both of Ireland and Scotland — whom they beat at RWC 2019 — and the Brave Blossoms should be far too strong for Portugal. Building squad continuity this November will set Japan up nicely for the two-year run to France, where they will again fancy their chances of getting out of pool that features England and Argentina.
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Kiley McDaniel
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Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
The July 31 MLB trade deadline is just days away, so it’s time for a deadline week update to our top 50 trade candidates ranking.
Major League Baseball’s trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates based on players’ performance — and that of the teams that could be involved in potential deals.
This is the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands. While some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt, they’re at least being discussed in potential deals. Others might be making the list for the first time this week as their team’s fortunes have changed.
Note: Players ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt.
Chance of trade: 90%
Suarez is in a contract year and playing like one of the best players in baseball. Only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more home runs than his 33. Despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, Suarez is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload all their free agents to be, Suarez could move because they’ve got Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
Chance of trade: 10%
Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a mix of stuff and pitchability, and teams in search of long-term fits dream of the possibility the Twins will actually move him. That is unlikely, but this is deadline season, so there is always the chance a team surveys the market, finds nothing to its liking and overpays. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode on nearly everyone that occupies a roster spot — and with Ryan not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success thus far, to pry him away.
Best fits: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
While the general sense is that Gore won’t go anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening — and that warrants a spot atop the list regardless of the minimal likelihood interim general manager Mike DeBartolo deals him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to engage: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with enough control that he’s walking a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Even if stuff-plus models aren’t crazy for Gore, he gets elite swing-and-miss and is the sort of pitcher that could tempt teams to overpay.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 25%
Another late entry to the proceedings, Cease is throwing as hard as he did in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system than some sort of desire to deal him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring back nearly the haul of Ryan or Gore. And there are genuine questions about whether the holes the Padres would try to fill by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting-pitching side were he to go. Regardless, they’re at the very least listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the final NL wild-card slot, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative in upgrading his roster.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
An All-Star the last two years and Gold Glove winner in all three of his previous big league seasons, Kwan is a do-everything left fielder with elite bat-to-ball skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to deal him, but with a dearth of available bats, the Guardians at very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers.
Best fits: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers
Chance of trade: 25%
Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best fWAR in the majors at 6.8. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e. had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year as has his luck. Duran’s projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league sees him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider moving Duran for controllable, top-end pitching.
Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia
7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff, headlined by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a splinker that sits 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
Chance of trade: 20%
Clase was nearly unhittable last season, but his numbers have regressed this year. He has issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls while allowing more damage on his cutter that averages 99 mph — in part due to more center-cut locations. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a big return to Cleveland.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
9. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 20%
Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the beginning of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to many teams’ late-inning woes. With four more years of control, he’s also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making a deal difficult to come by.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
10. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Despite a 3.92 ERA that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the top relievers in baseball this season — the best by xFIP and toward the top in other similar metrics. Over the last two seasons, he’s second in the sport behind Cade Smith in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine, and his sweeper-heavy arsenal induces as much swing-and-miss as anyone.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
11. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and offspeed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.
Best fits: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs
Chance of trade: 65%
Not only is Keller in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.53 ERA, he’s under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void. Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him — his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down — but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston
Chance of trade: 30%
All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-hander is finally coming into focus this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets hitters’ attention, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. And with a changeup that in years past has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high because of his full arsenal and three more years of club control.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees
Chance of trade: 50%
Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is frightening, and with the Marlins still valuing him as a top starter, they could hold onto him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore
15. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Gallen was excellent for the last three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is back to normal in his last six starts, at 35-to-6, despite a 6.55 ERA in that span.
Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs
16. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Chance of trade: 85%
O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, with an OPS+ of 132 (and he’s been unlucky with ball-in-play luck, to boot) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.
Best fits: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas
17. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chance of trade: 70%
In a market replete with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar brings high-end performance without quite the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than salvaged his trade value: Over his last 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five and posted a 0.00 ERA.
Best fits: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle
Chance of trade: 80%
Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle
Chance of trade: 20%
Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.3-mph fastball has more cutting action while his slurvy slider has more depth with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He’s got a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up around the $10 million range. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and bullpen injuries have cut into the likelihood Fairbanks moves.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas
20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 50%
A late entrant into the trade market, Bieber still hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this season and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. With his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider looking like its old sharp self, though, he’s generating plenty of interest and could be one of the bigger names moved at the deadline.
Best fits: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto
Chance of trade: 60%
Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season and he’s having a strong 2025 campaign, just one homer away from last year’s career high total of 25 — and in 52 fewer games.
Best fits: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, but that has begun to turn around recently. He remains a strong defender and baserunner, with a career-high 24 steals already. But the slashline is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the last two seasons. He’s got a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s upside than his productivity could be challenging.
Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco
23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of trade: 20%
Arenado’s strikeout rate is around his career best and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.
Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle
Chance of trade: 70%
Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. He’s also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.
Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021-24, but he’s fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he’s been the 13th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco
26. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Chance of trade: 15%
The No. 10 pick from the 2020 draft transitioned to relief this season and has found similar success to other highly-drafted college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.7 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term — and he could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.
Best fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto
Chance of trade: 90%
Following a dreadful start to the season, Morton found his curveball and has righted himself. Between his stuff and playoff experience, he has leapt up teams’ boards as a true target and almost certainly will move before the deadline.
Best fits: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
28. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox
Chance of trade: 90%
Houser’s resurgence is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league deal with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to post a 2.10 ERA in nearly 70 innings. He’ll eat innings for sure, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
Chance of trade: 80%
Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, though he’s hitting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to be below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers are up this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets
30. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins
Castro has played six of the eight field positions this year and has been a solid, versatile utility type since a breakout season in 2023. He doesn’t offer eye-popping numbers or tools, but is around average at most things while playing all over the field on an everyday basis.
Nos. 31-57
31. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies
32. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
33. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
34. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
35. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
36. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
38. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
39. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
40. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
41. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
42. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
44. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
45. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
47. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
48. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
50. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
51. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
52. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
53. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
54. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
55. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
56. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
57. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Bradford Doolittle
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born player to be enshrined into the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday, one of five new members of baseball’s hallowed institution.
After enduring the baseball tradition known as a rain delay, the five speeches went off without a hitch as the deluge subsided and the weather became hot and humid. Joining Suzuki were pitchers CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner, and sluggers Dick Allen and Dave Parker, both of whom were enshrined posthumously.
“For the third time, I am a rookie,” Suzuki said, delivering his comments in English despite his long preference for conducting his public appearances in Japanese with the aid of an interpreter.
For the American audience, this provided a rare glimpse into Suzuki’s playful side. Teammates long spoke of his sense of humor behind the closed doors of the clubhouse — something the public rarely saw — but it was on full display Sunday.
When Hall voting was announced, Suzuki fell one vote shy of becoming the second unanimous selection for the Hall. He thanked the writers for their support — with an exception.
“Three-thousand [career] hits or 262 hits in one season are achievements recognized by the writers,” Suzuki said. “Except, oh, one of you.”
After the laughter subsided, Suzuki mentioned the gracious comments he made when balloting results were announced, when he offered to invite the writer who didn’t vote for him home for dinner to learn his reasoning. Turns out, it’s too late.
“The offer to the one writer to have dinner at my home has now … expired!” Suzuki said.
Suzuki’s attention to detail and unmatched work ethic have continued into the present day, more than five years since he played his last big league game. That was central to his message Sunday, at least when he wasn’t landing a joke.
“If you consistently do the little things, there’s no limit to what you can achieve,” Suzuki said. “Look at me. I’m 5-11 and 170 pounds. When I came to America, many people said I was too skinny to compete with bigger major leaguers.”
After becoming one of the biggest stars in Japanese baseball, hitting .353 over nine seasons for the Orix BlueWave, Suzuki exploded on the scene as a 27-year-old rookie for the Seattle Mariners, batting .350 and winning the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP honors.
Chants of “Ichiro!” that once were omnipresent at Mariners games erupted from the crowd sprawled across the grounds of the complex while the all-time single-season hits leader (262 in 2004) posed with his plaque alongside commissioner Rob Manfred and Hall of Fame chairman Jane Forbes Clark.
Despite his late start in MLB, Suzuki finished with 3,089 hits in the majors and 4,367 including his time in Japan. Suzuki listed some of his feats, such as the hit total, and his 10 Gold Gloves.
“Not bad,” he said.
Sabathia’s weekend got off to a mildly rough start when his wife’s car broke down shortly after the family caravan departed for Cooperstown. They arrived in plenty of time though, and Sabathia was greeted warmly by numerous Yankees fans who made the trip.
After breaking in with Cleveland at age 20, Sabathia rocketed to stardom with a 17-5 rookie season. Alas, that came in 2001, the same year that Suzuki landed in the American League.
“Thank you most of all to the great players sitting behind me,” Sabathia said. “I am so proud and humbled to join you as a Hall of Famer, even Ichiro, who stole my Rookie of the Year Award in 2001.”
Sabathia focused the bulk of his comments on the support he has received over the years from his friends and family, especially his wife, Amber.
“The first time we met was at a house party when I was a junior in high school,” Sabathia said. “We spent the whole night talking, and that conversation has been going on for 29 years.”
Parker, 74, died from complications of Parkinson’s disease on June 28, less than a month before the induction ceremony. Representing him at the dais was his son, Dave Parker II, and though the moment was bittersweet, it was hardly somber.
Parker II finished the speech with a moving poem written by his father that, for a few minutes, made it feel as if the player nicknamed “The Cobra” were present.
“Thanks for staying by my side,” Parker’s poem concluded. “I told y’all Cooperstown would be my last rap, so the star of Dave will be in the sky tonight. Watch it glow. But I didn’t lie in my documentary — I told you I wouldn’t show.”
Parker finished with 2,712 hits and 339 homers, won two Gold Gloves on the strength of his legendary right-field arm and was named NL MVP in 1978. He spent his first 11 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates and entered the Hall representing the Bucs.
Wagner, whose 422 career saves ranks eighth on the all-time list, delivered an emotional but humorous speech about a small-town guy with a small-for-a-pitcher 5-foot-10 stature who made it big.
“I feel like my baseball life has come full circle,” Wagner said. “I was a fan before I could play. Back when baseball wasn’t so available on TV, every Saturday morning I watched Johnny Bench and so many of the other greats on a show ‘The Baseball Bunch.'”
In one of the moments of baseball serendipity that only Cooperstown can provide, the telecast flashed to Bench, sitting a few feet away from where Wagner was speaking.
Allen’s widow, Willa, delivered a touching tribute to her late husband, who died in 2020 after years of feeling overlooked for his outstanding career. The 1964 NL Rookie of the Year for the Phillies, Allen won the 1972 AL MVP for the Chicago White Sox.
“Baseball was his first love,” Willa said. “He used to say, ‘I’d have played for nothing,’ and I believe he meant it. But of course, if you compare today’s salary, he played almost for nothing.”
Willa focused on the softer side of a player who in his time was perhaps unfairly characterized for a contentious relationship with the media.
“He was devoted to people, not just fans, but especially his teammates,” Willa said. “If he heard someone was sick or going through a tough time, he’ll turn to me and say, ‘Willa, they have to hear from us.'”
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Alden Gonzalez
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash, both teams announced Sunday.
As part of the deal, the Cardinals will cover the majority of what remains of Fedde’s $7.5 million salary for 2025, a source told ESPN.
Fedde, 32, is a free agent at season’s end, making him a surprising pickup for a Braves team that was swept by the Texas Rangers over the weekend and is 16 games below .500, trailing the first-place New York Mets by 16½ games.
But the Braves have sustained a slew of injuries to their starting rotation of late, with AJ Smith-Shawver (torn ulnar collateral ligament), Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured elbow), Chris Sale (fractured ribcage) and, more recently, Grant Holmes (elbow inflammation) landing on the injured list since the start of June.
Fedde reestablished himself in South Korea in 2023, parlaying a dominant season into a two-year, $15 million contract to return stateside with the Chicago White Sox. Fedde continued that success in 2024, posting a 3.30 ERA in 177⅓ innings with the White Sox and Cardinals.
This year, though, it has been a struggle for a crafty right-hander who doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts. Twenty starts in, Fedde is 3-10 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.
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