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Abrdn, the FTSE-100 asset manager, is in advanced talks to buy Interactive Investor (II) for more than £1.5bn – a deal that will hand it control of one of Britain’s three big DIY stock-picking platforms.

Sky News can reveal that abrdn, headed by Stephen Bird, is in exclusive negotiations to acquire II and hopes to strike a formal takeover deal within the next fortnight.

Abrdn is likely to be forced to confirm the discussions in a stock exchange announcement on Monday morning.

If successfully concluded, the talks will end II’s preparations to join rivals Hargreaves Lansdown and AJ Bell on the London stock market following months of talks about a 2022 flotation.

II has more than 400,000 personal investing clients, positioning it behind only Hargreaves Lansdown by customer numbers in the UK market.

It has made a string of acquisitions of its own, such as the stock-dealing platform The Share Centre, and has about £57bn in assets under administration.

The bold swoop by abrdn which takes it further into direct-to-consumer investing will represent a calculated gamble for Mr Bird, a former Citi executive who joined the asset management group in July 2020.

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He has hinted at a desire to pursue targeted acquisitions which help it to diversify its revenue base across three areas: investment, adviser and personal.

Acquiring II would deliver on that ambition in personal investing, and transform abrdn’s digital capability and consumer appeal, one analyst said on Saturday.

Last month, abrdn bought Finimize, a subscription-based investment tips service – a much smaller deal, but one which nevertheless underlined the group’s pivot towards personal investing-oriented activities.

One area of uncertainty for Mr Bird will relate to abrdn shareholders’ reaction to the II news given his predecessors’ decidedly mixed track record in corporate deal-making.

Investors were left underwhelmed by the £11bn merger of Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management in 2017, with the combined group having lost close to half its value since the tie-up was announced that year.

Since then, the co-chief executives of Standard Life Aberdeen – now renamed abrdn – have both stepped down.

Martin Gilbert, the Aberdeen Asset Management founder, has emerged in a large number of City posts, including at the helm of AssetCo, which he has begun using as a consolidation vehicle in the asset management sector, while Keith Skeoch remains chairman of the Financial Reporting Council and Investment Association.

For Mr Bird, however, the transaction may come at an opportune time.

Abrdn has total surplus regulatory capital of about £2bn, having sold another chunk of its stake in India’s HDFC in late September, meaning financing the takeover of II is unlikely to be problematic.

The deal also comes sufficiently early in his tenure as CEO to make a potentially significant difference to the long-term performance of abrdn, which has been hit by large fund outflows during most of the period since the 2017 merger.

Under Mr Bird, the tide has begun to turn, with fee-based revenues and adjusted operating profits recently showing their fastest growth since the company was created in its current form.

He has said he wants to turn abrdn into a simplified and more focused investment management group with far stronger digital capabilities for personal and institutional clients.

Since taking the helm of the company, which now manages more than £530bn for clients, he has jettisoned businesses including Parmenion, a platform servicing independent financial advisers, and a real estate division in the Nordics.

Its rebranding in August – which provoked some derision in the City – would, Mr Bird, said, provide “clarity” and leave it “better-positioned to have impact at scale as a global business”.

Nevertheless, abrdn may have to contend with some discontent from rival fund managers whose products are listed on the II platform.

If the deal goes ahead, it will deliver the certainty of a handsome payday for JC Flowers, II’s biggest shareholder and other investors which include a group of venture capital funds.

JC Flowers engineered the combination of II and TD Direct in 2017, since when the business has grown into an industry powerhouse.

The size of the stake in II owned by Richard Wilson, its chief executive, is unclear, but he is expected to remain in place after the takeover, according to insiders.

Mr Wilson has been a vocal advocate for greater involvement for retail investors in companies’ public share sales, and has spoken repeatedly about the stock market being a natural home for the company.

Earlier this year, II appointed Gordon Wilson, a former Travelport executive, as its non-executive chairman as part of its planning for an IPO.

The latest steps being taken by II towards a public debut come months after a review led by Lord Hill, a Treasury board member, recommended measures to make it simpler for retail investors to participate in IPOs.

Ordinary customers are often frozen out of prominent floats, although the advent and rapid growth of services such as that offered by PrimaryBid have begun to make them more accessible.

JP Morgan is advising abrdn on the talks, while II and its shareholders are being advised by Fenchurch Advisory Partners and UBS.

On Friday, shares in abrdn closed at 255.7p, giving the company a market capitalisation of just under £5.6bn.

Abrdn declined to comment this weekend, while II has been contacted for comment.

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Ministers apply finishing touches to ‘Tell Sid’-style NatWest offer

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Ministers apply finishing touches to ‘Tell Sid’-style NatWest offer

Ordinary investors will be awarded ‘bonus’ shares in NatWest Group if they hold onto stock they acquire in the taxpayer-backed bank, under a plan expected to be finalised by ministers later this month.

Sky News has learnt key details of the options being explored by the Treasury for a multibillion pound retail offer of NatWest shares, including a likely £10,000 cap on applications from members of the public.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, announced in last year’s autumn statement that he would explore a mass-market share sale “to create a new generation of retail investors”.

Since that point, further buybacks by the bank and stock sales by the government have reduced the taxpayer’s stake to around 28% – worth about £7bn at NatWest’s current valuation.

The retail offer will be launched alongside an institutional placing of shares in the bank which could in aggregate lead to the Treasury’s stake falling to as low as 10%, sources indicated this weekend.

If investor demand turns out to be greater than expected, the reduction could be even more substantial, they said.

That would put the government within striking distance of returning NatWest to full private ownership 16 years after the lender was rescued from the brink of collapse with £45.5bn of public money.

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This weekend, sources said that options under active consideration by Treasury officials included a minimum investment of £250, to encourage a wide participation in the retail offer.

A ceiling of £10,000 was “likely”, they said, mirroring a 2015 Treasury plan – which was subsequently abandoned – for a retail offering by the Treasury of Lloyds Banking Group shares.

The NatWest offer is also expected to award one bonus share for every ten bought by retail investors and retained for at least a year, the sources added, although they cautioned that final details such as the bonus share ratio and precise investment thresholds could still be amended by officials.

A modest discount to the bank’s prevailing share price will also be applied to encourage take-up.

People close to the decision-making process said that Mr Hunt and Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, were being kept closely informed on the plans.

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Depending upon market conditions, they said an announcement to launch the offer could come in late May or early June.

The green light will be subject to any political turbulence in the aftermath of this week’s local elections, they added.

Shares in NatWest have risen by more than 20% over the last year despite the turbulence surrounding the debanking row involving Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader.

Dame Alison Rose, the bank’s former boss, stepped down last year after it emerged that she had spoken to a BBC journalist about the closure of Mr Farage’s accounts.

She has since been replaced by Paul Thwaite, whose transition from interim to permanent boss of NatWest was confirmed earlier this year.

NatWest also has a new chairman, Rick Haythornthwaite, who replaced Sir Howard Davies at its annual meeting last month.

Mr Farage, who has threatened to launch legal action against the bank, recently declared his fight with the lender “far from over”.

“For a retail NatWest share sale to work – as outlined by Jeremy Hunt in the Budget – investors must have confidence in the bank,” he said.

“My debanking row with them is far from over.

“They acted in a politically prejudiced way against me and then deliberately tried to cover it up.

“Until they provide full disclosure and apologise for their behaviour, why should any retail customer trust them?”

The government’s stake in NatWest has been steadily reduced during the last eight years from almost 85%.

Sky News revealed earlier this year that ministers had drafted in M&C Saatchi – the advertising agency founded by the brothers who helped propel Margaret Thatcher to power – to orchestrate a campaign to persuade millions of Britons to buy NatWest shares.

NatWest, which changed its name from Royal Bank of Scotland Group in an attempt to distance itself from its hubristic overexpansion, was rescued from outright collapse by an emergency bailout that Fred Goodwin, its then boss, likened to “a drive-by shooting”.

A spokesperson for NatWest said “decisions on the timing and mechanic of any offer are a matter for the Treasury”.

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling ‘big fat lie’ to Horizon inquiry

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling 'big fat lie' to Horizon inquiry

A former top Post Office lawyer has been accused of telling the Horizon IT inquiry a “big fat lie” over his knowledge of a bug in the system that could have stopped wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters in their tracks.

Jarnail Singh was a senior in-house lawyer and subsequently head of criminal law at the Post Office from 2012.

The inquiry into the Horizon scandal heard he was copied into an email containing a report which identified the glitch in the accounting system but denied knowledge of it for years – despite saving the document and printing it out.

Mr Singh denied the claims by Jason Beer KC, counsel to the inquiry.

Mr Beer said the report was sent to Mr Singh just three days before sub-postmaster Seema Misra’s case began in October 2010.

Ms Misra was eight weeks pregnant when she was handed a 15-month prison sentence after being accused of stealing £74,000 from her branch in West Byfleet, Surrey.

Her conviction was later quashed by the Court of Appeal.

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Mr Singh said he “wasn’t made aware” of the report, written by Fujitsu engineer Gareth Jenkins.

Explanation of bug

Mr Beer said it described a bug “that will result in a receipts payment mismatch” and offered an explanation for apparent cases of theft among sub-postmasters.

He added that a file address on the bottom of the document, which included Mr Singh’s name, showed the lawyer had both saved the report to his drive and printed it out only nine minutes later.

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Ex-Post Office exec accused of lying

He said this proved Mr Singh had lied years later when he denied having advance knowledge of the issues uncovered by a 2013 report carried out by forensic accounting firm Second Sight.

Mr Singh said he also did not know how to save or print documents during his employment at the organisation and had to ask others to do it for him.

Mr Beer accused Mr Singh of telling “a big fat lie” to the inquiry and of having failed to disclose important information to the defence or court ahead of Ms Misra’s prosecution, asking: “You’d known about the bug all along hadn’t you, Mr Singh?”

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‘I have had breakdowns’

The lawyer responded: “No, that’s not true.”

Admission of mistakes

He also denied any suggestion of a cover up but admitted that “mistakes were made” in the prosecution of Ms Misra.

Mr Singh said: “I’m ever so sorry Ms Misra had suffered and I am ever so embarrassed to be here, that we made those mistakes and put somebody’s liberty at stake and the loss she suffered and the damage caused which was not what this was about.”

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Post Office hero Bates had seemingly been preparing for this day

Following her case, hundreds of people were later wrongly convicted of stealing after bugs and errors in the accounting system, operated by Fujitsu, made it appear as though money was missing at their branches.

There were more than 700 convictions in total, dating back from 1995 to 2015.

Victims not only faced prison but financial ruin. Others were ostracised by their communities, while some took their own lives.

Fresh attention was brought to the scandal after ITV broadcast the drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, prompting government action that aims to speed up the clearing of names and payments of compensation.

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

Official figures have raised fears of a deepening public sector drag on the the UK’s economic recovery from recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, deteriorated between the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

It measured a 1.0% decline over the period, leaving the figure 2.3% lower than a year ago and even further away from recovering pre-pandemic levels.

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The gap was put at 6.8%.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs – like salaries and government funding – that are needed to maintain those services.

While the sector has witnessed hits from the impacts of strikes since the end of the COVID crisis, the NHS has struggled to deal with a worsening backlog in many key waiting lists.

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Rows over funding have been exacerbated by record levels of long-term sickness.

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UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’

The official jobless rate stands at just over 4% – around 1.4 million people.

However, the numbers judged to be economically inactive due to poor health are nearing double that sum.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that the issue has added around £16bn to annual government borrowing bills.

Pressures have been reflected in ONS data, with output in both the health and education sectors falling during the fourth quarter of the year – contributing to the country’s recession.

That was despite rising inputs over the period.

Back in March, chancellor Jeremy Hunt used his budget to announce a Public Sector Productivity Plan – with an emphasis on improving technology in the National Health Service (NHS).

Figures next week are widely expected to confirm the end of the recession, with overall output returning to growth during the first quarter of the year.

Recent private sector surveys have painted a rosy picture for the dominant services sector, which accounts for almost 80% of overall output, despite continued pressure on budgets from the impact of higher inflation and interest rates to help cure the price problem.

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