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The rate of inflation has hit its highest level for a decade as prices rise across the UK economy, with fuel and energy costs leading the way.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the consumer prices index (CPI) measure jumped to 4.2% in October from 3.1% the previous month – a bigger leap than economists had predicted and piling pressure on the Bank of England to act.

The figures showed that the 12% increase in the energy price cap on household bills on 1 October was among the factors contributing the most to the spike alongside education, transport, eating out and fashion costs.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said of the rise: “This was driven by increased household energy bills due to the price cap hike, a rise in the cost of second-hand cars and fuel as well as higher prices in restaurants and hotels.

Potential customers walk around Charles Hurst Usedirect used car dealership on Boucher Road in Belfast as restrictions in Northern Ireland ease allowing new and used cars sales. 12/4/2021
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Used cars are in high demand as production of new vehicles is hit by a global chip shortage

“Costs of goods produced by factories and the price of raw materials have also risen substantially, and are now at their highest rates for at least 10 years.”

The latter comment represents a warning that the pace of price increases shows no sign of letting up as those costs prepare to enter the UK’s supply chain crisis which is also being complicated by a shortage of labour.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak responded: “Many countries are experiencing higher inflation as we recover from COVID, and we know people are facing pressures with the cost of living, which is why we are taking action worth more than £4.2bn to help them.

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“We’re helping people get into work, progress and keep more of what they earn, through our Plan for Jobs and by effectively cutting taxes for workers receiving Universal Credit.

“We are also providing more immediate support, including through the £500m Household Support Fund for the most vulnerable families, fuel and alcohol duty freezes, and the energy price cap.”

But the cap is tipped by economists to add even more fuel to the inflation fire in the spring, when the next review takes effect, if it fully reflects rises in wholesale gas costs since last summer.

A report by the RAC motoring group on Wednesday showed a third of motorists were already driving less as petrol and diesel costs hit new record levels daily.

Fuel pump. Pic: AP
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The average cost of unleaded is nearing 150p-per-litre while diesel is already at that level. Pic: AP

The ONS report was the first measure of the pace of annual price increases since the Bank of England shocked financial markets earlier this month when it held off on raising interest rates to curb inflation expectations, despite forecasting the CPI measure would hit 5% in the coming months.

The Bank, which said it had wanted to see how the jobs market responded to the end of the furlough scheme, has a 2% inflation target.

It has argued that much of the price growth, as witnessed with the surge in wholesale energy costs this year, will be temporary as it is a consequence of economies reopening after COVID-19 disruption and out of its control.

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‘Interest rate rise wouldn’t tackle supply issues’

It will take some comfort from the fact that separate ONS figures have shown household spending power holding up as policymakers fret that fears of inflation are driving unsustainable pay awards.

The underlying pace of growth in wages – taking into account workers going back on full pay after furlough and how job losses during the coronavirus lockdowns fell most heavily on lower-paid workers – stood between 3.4% and 4.9% for regular pay in the three months to September.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “While not unexpected, confirmation that inflation is moving further away from its 2% target may seal the Bank of England’s resolve to raise rates in December, following the strong labour data released this week.”

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.

The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.

Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.

The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.

He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.

Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.

He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.

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For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.

Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.

In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.

Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill are closing in on a definitive agreement to merge two of Britain’s most famous grocery brands following months of talks.

Sky News has learnt Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, has proposed paying roughly £75m to acquire Hovis from its long-term private equity backers.

Banking sources said a deal could be formally agreed to combine the businesses as early as the end of next week, although they cautioned the complexity of the transaction meant the timing could yet slip.

Confirmation of a tie-up would come nearly three months after Sky News revealed ABF and Endless – Hovis’s owner since 2020 – were in discussions.

Industry sources have estimated that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of annual cost savings from a merger.

ABF has also been exploring options for the future of Allied Bakeries separate from its talks with Hovis in the event a deal could not be agreed or is prevented from completing by competition regulators.

If it does go ahead, the merger will unite two historic bread producers under common ownership, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning “strength of man”.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair breadmakers’ financial health in recent decades, however.

In accounts filed at Companies House earlier this month, Hovis said it had “achieved positive financial progress despite continued tough trading conditions”.

The company reported sales of £439.6m in the 52 weeks to 28 September last year, down from £477.6m in the 53 weeks to 30 September 2023.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell from £20.9m to £18.7m, which Hovis said was the result of the revenue decline and higher distribution costs.

“Overall bread share remained stable, despite significant price inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, demonstrating the resilience of the Hovis brand and its iconic status as one of Britain’s most loved food brands,” the accounts said.

This week, the trade publication The Grocer reported that Britain’s big four supermarkets, including Asda and Sainsbury’s, had delisted a number of Hovis-branded products.

The publication quoted a Hovis spokeswoman as saying the company was “aware of some adjustments to Hovis product lines in certain stores”.

“We remain fully committed to working collaboratively with our retail partners to grow our mutual businesses.”

The overall UK bakery market is estimated to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

Critical to the prospects of a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis taking place will be the view of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) at a time when economic regulators are under intense pressure from the government to support growth.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group the largest share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain higher because of the breadth of its product range.

Responding to Sky News’ report in May of the talks, ABF said: “Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we remain committed to increasing long-term shareholder value.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF – which is also in the process of closing its Vivergo bioethanol plant in Hull after pleading for government support – described the losses at Allied, which also owns own-label bread manufacturer Speedibake, as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Prior to its ownership by Endless, Hovis was owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites, as well as its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF declined to comment, while Endless could not be reached for comment.

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.

Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.

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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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What does ‘inflation is rising’ mean?

Where have people been shopping?

June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.

While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.

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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.

Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.

The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.

Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.

When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.

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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.

The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.

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