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The number might have surprised most economists, who were anticipating a figure slightly below 4% rather than slightly above it, but in another sense there’s nothing enormously surprising about today’s inflation figure, striking as it may be.

Everyone expected CPI to rise sharply in October, as we saw the impact of higher energy prices on the typical shopping basket of goods which constitutes the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

We’ve known for many months that raw material prices have been on the rise, and that the potential for higher prices has been strong. Even so: it’s worth reflecting on the root causes for the highest rise in prices in a decade.

There are some obvious short-term explanations, from the domestic – the end of the COVID-era VAT cut for the hospitality sector, the rise in the home energy price cap – to the international.

People enjoy the sun at outdoor restaurant tables in Kingston, London, as Bank Holiday Monday could be the hottest day of the year so far - with temperatures predicted to hit 25C in parts of the UK. Picture date: Monday May 31, 2021.
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An easing in VAT support for hospitality contributed to rising inflation in October

Most obviously, the world economy is whirring back into action in the wake of COVID-19 shutdowns. The rebounds are even bigger in countries like the United States, where President Biden is splurging trillions of dollars on new investment and household support packages.

The economic system is not especially used to annual growth rates of 6% or above, which is what we’re looking at in many developed economies this year. With so much demand for goods, there is little surprise that prices are on the rise. And in one sense this kind of inflation represents good news, since it reflects positive economic news.

The issue, however, is that often inflation is not a good news story.

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Sometimes rising prices do not come hand in hand with rising growth. Sometimes prices rise so high that they stifle demand, deterring people from spending and even sparking a recession. The big question occupying economists is whether, once the “COVID effect” has been and gone, this inflation is of the “good” or “bad” variety.

It’s probably too early to say for sure which one we’re looking at, though the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility expects UK households to face another lean five years for real wages is not especially encouraging.

The fear in the Bank of England, however, is that this inflation becomes “sticky” in the coming months, with employees using price rises to justify pay increases, which in turn fuels an inflationary spiral with prices chasing wages ever higher.

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‘Interest rate rise wouldn’t tackle supply issues’

That would make few people better off.

The Bank has already signalled that it’s likely to raise interest rates soon.

Whether that means next month’s meeting or the following one in February has been a matter for debate, but today’s inflation figures, alongside the strong labour market data yesterday, mean next month is looking increasingly likely.

However, speaking to me earlier this month the governor, Andrew Bailey, said there was only so much he and his colleagues at the Monetary Policy Committee can do to temper the prices we’re seeing right now.

Life, in short, is getting more expensive. And pretty soon borrowing will be too.

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling ‘big fat lie’ to Horizon inquiry

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling 'big fat lie' to Horizon inquiry

A former top Post Office lawyer has been accused of telling the Horizon IT inquiry a “big fat lie” over his knowledge of a bug in the system that could have stopped wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters in their tracks.

Jarnail Singh was a senior in-house lawyer and subsequently head of criminal law at the Post Office from 2012.

The inquiry into the Horizon scandal heard he was copied into an email containing a report which identified the glitch in the accounting system but denied knowledge of it for years – despite saving the document and printing it out.

Mr Singh denied the claims by Jason Beer KC, counsel to the inquiry.

Mr Beer said the report was sent to Mr Singh just three days before sub-postmaster Seema Misra’s case began in October 2010.

Ms Misra was eight weeks pregnant when she was handed a 15-month prison sentence after being accused of stealing £74,000 from her branch in West Byfleet, Surrey.

Her conviction was later quashed by the Court of Appeal.

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Sub-postmistress wrongly jailed while pregnant

Mr Singh said he “wasn’t made aware” of the report, written by Fujitsu engineer Gareth Jenkins.

Explanation of bug

Mr Beer said it described a bug “that will result in a receipts payment mismatch” and offered an explanation for apparent cases of theft among sub-postmasters.

He added that a file address on the bottom of the document, which included Mr Singh’s name, showed the lawyer had both saved the report to his drive and printed it out only nine minutes later.

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Ex-Post Office exec accused of lying

He said this proved Mr Singh had lied years later when he denied having advance knowledge of the issues uncovered by a 2013 report carried out by forensic accounting firm Second Sight.

Mr Singh said he also did not know how to save or print documents during his employment at the organisation and had to ask others to do it for him.

Mr Beer accused Mr Singh of telling “a big fat lie” to the inquiry and of having failed to disclose important information to the defence or court ahead of Ms Misra’s prosecution, asking: “You’d known about the bug all along hadn’t you, Mr Singh?”

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‘I have had breakdowns’

The lawyer responded: “No, that’s not true.”

Admission of mistakes

He also denied any suggestion of a cover up but admitted that “mistakes were made” in the prosecution of Ms Misra.

Mr Singh said: “I’m ever so sorry Ms Misra had suffered and I am ever so embarrassed to be here, that we made those mistakes and put somebody’s liberty at stake and the loss she suffered and the damage caused which was not what this was about.”

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Post Office hero Bates had seemingly been preparing for this day

Following her case, hundreds of people were later wrongly convicted of stealing after bugs and errors in the accounting system, operated by Fujitsu, made it appear as though money was missing at their branches.

There were more than 700 convictions in total, dating back from 1995 to 2015.

Victims not only faced prison but financial ruin. Others were ostracised by their communities, while some took their own lives.

Fresh attention was brought to the scandal after ITV broadcast the drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, prompting government action that aims to speed up the clearing of names and payments of compensation.

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

Official figures have raised fears of a deepening public sector drag on the the UK’s economic recovery from recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, deteriorated between the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

It measured a 1.0% decline over the period, leaving the figure 2.3% lower than a year ago and even further away from recovering pre-pandemic levels.

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The gap was put at 6.8%.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs – like salaries and government funding – that are needed to maintain those services.

While the sector has witnessed hits from the impacts of strikes since the end of the COVID crisis, the NHS has struggled to deal with a worsening backlog in many key waiting lists.

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Rows over funding have been exacerbated by record levels of long-term sickness.

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UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’

The official jobless rate stands at just over 4% – around 1.4 million people.

However, the numbers judged to be economically inactive due to poor health are nearing double that sum.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that the issue has added around £16bn to annual government borrowing bills.

Pressures have been reflected in ONS data, with output in both the health and education sectors falling during the fourth quarter of the year – contributing to the country’s recession.

That was despite rising inputs over the period.

Back in March, chancellor Jeremy Hunt used his budget to announce a Public Sector Productivity Plan – with an emphasis on improving technology in the National Health Service (NHS).

Figures next week are widely expected to confirm the end of the recession, with overall output returning to growth during the first quarter of the year.

Recent private sector surveys have painted a rosy picture for the dominant services sector, which accounts for almost 80% of overall output, despite continued pressure on budgets from the impact of higher inflation and interest rates to help cure the price problem.

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic – and reveals AI plans

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic - and reveals AI plans

Tech giant Apple has recorded the biggest drop in iPhone sales since the early months of the COVID pandemic.

Sales for January to March were down 10% on the same period last year – something not seen since the 2020 iPhone model was delayed due to lockdown factory closures.

Overall, Apple earned $90.8bn (£72.4bn) in the latest quarter – down 4% from last year. It was the fifth consecutive three-month period that the company’s revenue dipped from the previous year.

Apple’s profit in the past quarter was $23.64bn (£18.85bn) – a 2% dip from last year.

It was good news, however, for the overall value of the company as its share price rose nearly 7% after investors had expected a bigger drop in sales.

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March: Apple accused of locking out rivals

Meanwhile, Apple chief executive Tim Cook has discussed how the company is set to use artificial intelligence (AI).

While rival Samsung introduced phones that can feature AI, including generative AI chatbots, Apple has yet to announce how it will be embedded into its iPhones.

The next iPhone is expected to feature AI microchips and bigger screens.

Apple will reveal the newest software when it holds its annual developers’ conference in June.

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Generative AI could power phones to write software code, essays or create images based on a prompt by users.

Mr Cook said the company feels “very bullish about our opportunity in generative AI and we’re making significant investments”, adding: “We’re looking forward to sharing some very exciting things.”

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