“Take it from me, please don’t come… it’s bad here.”
This is one of hundreds of messages sent by migrants on the Belarus border seen by Sky News. The texts warn others not to follow in their footsteps.
“To those who are saying ‘the border is open’, it’s not open. It’s a lie,” another migrant urges. “Smugglers are spreading these rumours.”
Thousands of migrants have been gathering at the border hoping to enter Poland.
Buses and planes are being organised to relocate some of the 2,000 men, women and children at the border after two weeks of rising tensions.
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Many come from Iraq and Syria, with a number of Iraqi Kurds among them.
At least one repatriation flight is set to take place today and will return some of the migrants to Iraq.
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Harsh conditions mean many at the border may take up the offer to return home.
Messages shared on social media show some migrants are scared, tired and regret having attempted the journey.
The texts also show those selling visas to Belarus have hiked up their prices in an attempt to capitalise on the migrant rush.
Migrants have spent thousands attempting to reach the EU, with some claiming they were attacked during their journey.
One man says: “Take it from me, please don’t come and join everyone… It’s bad here. I paid [smuggler’s name] 4000 euros (£3,357) and I failed to cross.
“On top of that, we were beaten.”
In a different chat, a man makes the same claim: “The Belarusian army started to beat anyone who comes near the wire.”
Returning home is on the minds of many, as one man explains: “I wish that I didn’t come. I paid 3800 euros (£3190) and I have spent a thousand while I’ve been here. Now I will need to pay 800 euros(£670) for my return ticket home.”
The mood has changed and many are resigned. Some believe the moment to make the dash into Europe has passed. They blame those who arrived before them and alongside them.
“The mass gatherings have ruined everything for us,” one man complains. “If people didn’t gather as they are now, tens of thousands would have crossed easily. We have lost the opportunity.”
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2:24
Sky News goes inside the migrant camp on the Belarus border.
Some still have hope and are attempting to make the journey. One person currently in Iraq is one of many online searching for answers on Telegram, a messaging app.
“What is the situation there? Based on what I understood, people are coming there now,” he asks in a group chat.
A migrant who claims to have made the journey replies: “It is very tense at the border. It’s similar to what you see on the news.”
Some ask for information and reassurance despite reaching as far as Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
“I just saw the news on Facebook but I am in Minsk now and can’t leave… I am a girl and by myself. I have no one with me,” one woman writes.
Others encourage her to pay a smuggler $3000 (£2,200) to help her across the border, through Poland and into Germany – a route many migrants say they intend to travel.
Frightened, she replies: “I don’t know. I am scared and don’t speak the language.”
Many migrants in these groups appear distrustful, confused and uncertain about the situation.
A video shared in one Telegram chat shows Polish authorities stopping migrants from crossing the border. The user asks: “How do we know this is true”. No one replies.
Basic questions are asked: Are there still flights? How much is a winter coat? What’s the cheapest visa?
And pleas for help are shared.
A father-of-three has fallen sick on the border. His nephew writes: “I am writing this and begging as there is someone’s life in danger right now.
“My uncle is now lying on the ground in a very critical condition… his friends can’t look after him anymore.”
He continues: “I am writing this out of despair… I appeal to anyone who can help us take him to the hospital or contact charities. I know his location on the border.”
The EU and NATO accuse Belarus of giving migrants tourist visas and encouraging them to enter EU countries like Poland in retaliation to sanctions imposed by the Union.
Adverts for Belarusian visas are still easily found online.
Belarus denies creating the crisis and accuses Poland of not handling the situation properly.
Belarus, as well as EU countries Lithuania and Latvia, reported a sharp increase in migrants attempting to cross from Belarus since the summer.
Analysis of the number of flights to the Belarus capital Minsk from Iraq in the summer shows a substantial rise this year. The flights increased by 75% rise compared to the average number of flights between the countries before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019.
Then, after months of tension, the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border escalated this month.
On 6 November, migrants were seen gathering in Minsk.
It’s not yet clear why but today migrants have started gathering in very large groups in Minsk Nemiga district. Perhaps, something is going to happen pic.twitter.com/JfU6BPx392
The large numbers of migrants heading to the border prompted Poland’s Ministry of National Defence to tweet this aerial footage on 8 November.
It shows a group of migrants in Kuznica, a Polish border village.
The Ministry tweeted another video on 8 November, directly accusing Belarus of escorting and encouraging the migrants to attempt to breach the border.
The tweet reads: “All activities of the migrants are carried out under the supervision and control of Belarusian soldiers.”
The following day, the crisis escalated. Poland deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to help protect its border.
Polish forces at the border have been using water cannon and tear gas in attempt to push back migrants, who in turn have thrown stones and logs across the barbed wire fence.
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1:15
Water cannon were used on migrants at the border between Belarus and Poland.
Some migrants claim to have been violently abused. The men in this video, who are Iraqi Kurds, allege Belarusian police set dogs on them. At the end of the video, the man speaking says the group have no food or water.
Warning this video contains images of injuries.
On Wednesday, the EU pledged to send 700,000 euros (£587,000) worth of food, blankets and other aid to migrants at the Belarus border to ease the harsh conditions at the border.
However Poland’s defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak cautioned the crisis will not go away quickly.
Speaking on Polish public radio, he said: “We have to be prepared that this situation on the Belarusian border won’t settle swiftly.”
Credits:
Writing and reporting: Jack Taylor, Sanya Burgess, Adam Parker
Data journalism: Kieran Devine, Ganesh Rao
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia – as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to push for “further support” for Kyiv at the G20 summit.
Mr Biden’s policy shift means Kyiv will now be able to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)for long-range attacks, two American officials have told Sky News’ US partner network NBC News.
Ukraine plans to conduct its first such attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.
The son of president-elect Donald Trumphas criticised the move to allow Ukraine to fire deep into Russia.
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Donald Trump Jr wrote on the X social media platform: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives… Imbeciles!”
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The outgoing Biden administration’s move comes as there are concerns about the level of support the Trump White House may be willing to give Ukraine.
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Mr Trump has previously vowed to limit US support for Ukraine and end its war with Russia.
In an evening address after Kyiv was given permission to fire deep into Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.”
Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said if the US were to lift the ban on long-range missile use it would be seen as NATO’s “direct participation” in the war.
He added: “This, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.”
Meanwhile, the UK prime minister has said he has “no plans” to speak with the Russian president as world leaders gather for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Mr Putin will not be attending the two-day summit which starts on Monday after saying in October that his presence would “disrupt the normal work of this forum”. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending instead.
It will take place days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Mr Putinon what was the Russian leader’s first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major Western power in nearly two years.
Asked if he had any plans to make a similar call, Sir Keir said: “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin.”
Speaking to reporters while on his way to the summit, he added: “We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.
“That’s 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we’ve seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.
“I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, but it’s got serious implications for European security […] and for Indo-Pacific security and that’s why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20.
“There’s got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.”
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2:01
One of Russia’s ‘largest air attacks’
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The latest developments come after Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Sunday, with Mr Zelenskyy claiming Moscow had launched a total of 120 missiles and 90 drones.
The sweeping attack, which left at least eight people dead, targeted energy infrastructure across Ukraine overnight and prompted emergency power cuts.
Hours later, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia’s air defence units had destroyed a drone heading towards the city.
Joe Biden’s belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy – just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president – will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.
President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.
British and US officials, though, have repeatedly advised their respective capitals not to be intimidated by Moscow’s sabre rattling.
Yet there has been hesitancy, particularly in Washington, over the unleashing of US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles beyond the borders of Ukraine.
However, it seems that a move by North Korea to send thousands of its troops to fight with Russia has changed US calculations.
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The New York Times, which was among the US media organisations to break news of the Biden administration’s decision on long-range missiles, reported that the first time the American weapons will be used inside Russia will likely be against Russian and North Korean troops battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Russian region of Kursk.
While a significant step up in support for Ukraine, the ability to use American long-range missiles inside Russia is not a war-winning development.
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But it does expand Kyiv’s capacity to hit important military targets deliberately positioned by Russian commanders far back from the frontline. This includes stockpiles of missiles, drones and other ammunition used to strike Ukraine.
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2:59
Biden lifts ban on Russia strikes
Just as important as the military impact, though, is the political signal that the US decision sends to the Kremlin about Washington’s willingness to defy Russian warnings about dire consequences should Mr Biden dare to grant Ukraine the permission it’s so long been seeking.
The dramatic move by the United States comes after months of lobbying by Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A key thing to watch now will be how Mr Putin reacts the first time an American missile kills Russian soldiers on Russian soil.
Moscow does not want a direct war with the United States and NATO – nuclear-armed forces with far greater combined firepower – but the Kremlin could well ramp up an already heightened campaign of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare across Europe.
Another important reaction to track will be how Mr Trump responds to Mr Biden’s move and whether he continues to allow Ukraine this permission once he takes over as the US commander-in-chief.
The president-elect has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly but he has not said how. Yet he has voiced fierce opposition to the continued gifting of vast quantities of American weapons to the Ukrainian military.
Moscow is focused on the “energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine” and is trying to intimidate Ukrainians with “cold and lack of light”, Mr Zelenskyy said.
The president added: “The whole world sees and knows that we are defending ourselves against absolute evil, which does not understand any language but force.
“We need unity [and] the world needs unity. Only together can we stop this evil.”
Two people were killed and a 17-year-old boy was injured after a Russian attack in the Black Sea port of Odesa, regional governor Oleh Kiper said.
Energy infrastructure was damaged, he said, leading to “interruptions in the supply of heat, water and electricity”.
In Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine, officials said two people were killed in a Russian drone attack.
Ukraine’s state emergency service said a multi-storey building, cars and a shopping centre were hit.
Two women were killed and six injured, including two children, it added.
In the central Dnipro region, two people died and three were wounded in a strike on a rail depot, while in Lviv, on the border with Poland, a woman was killed in a car.
In the capital, Kyiv, mayor Vitali Klitschko said Russian attacks had caused a fire to erupt on the roof of a residential building, injuring at least two people.
People took refuge in metro stations, while emergency services were pictured removing part of a Russian missile from an apartment block.
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The Ukrainian military said it had destroyed 102 missiles and 42 drones launched by Russia.
Hypersonic missiles were among the 120 fired at Ukrainian territory, it said.
Air defences were active in “almost all” regions of Ukraine.
Equipment at thermal power stations has been “seriously damaged” during Russian air strikes, Ukraine’s largest private energy provider said. DTEK said its staff were working on repairs.
Russia’s defence ministry confirmed it had attacked energy resources supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, Russian news agencies reported.
Poland scrambled its air force early on Sunday because of the “massive attack by the Russian Federation using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles”.
Mr Zelenskyy sent his condolences to anyone affected by the latest Russian attacks.
He said “all necessary forces” were involved in restoring power and facilities.
On Tuesday, it will be 1,000 days since Russia launched what it calls its “special military operation”.