Outside the Labour conference hall in Liverpool, the winds were up and the rain pouring down.
Back in the City of London, the markets were still in turmoil as tensions flared between the prime minister and chancellor about how to handle the fallout from their (non) budget.
But if these are turbulent times, inside the conference hall Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer was a man carrying a calm sense of confidence. This was a leader who thinks his moment has arrived.
It was so different to a year ago, when Sir Keir was heckled in the hall by the Labour left as he delivered his leader’s speech and his supporters were drafted in to try to drown out the criticism with cheers.
Those battles over, the ground won. This was a leader placing Labour firmly in the centre ground and taking aim at Tory territory, pitching to be the party of economic competence, business and aspiration.
And Sir Keir was so different too: I remember back in May 2021 when Labour suffered that not just a humiliating by-election defeat in Hartlepool – the former heartland town electing the first Tory MP for the first time in 62 years – but also a slew of losses in local elections across the red wall.
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As Boris Johnson embarked on a tour of his new territory in the West Midlands and Hartlepool, Sir Keir remained holed up in London. There was no victory lap to be had anywhere in the country. It was a real low point, a raw moment for the Labour leader. And it took time to build back.
But on Tuesday, the Labour leader cut a different figure. He was serious, assured and definitely not second-guessing himself. He became increasingly confident throughout the summer as his nemesis Mr Johnson was deposed, and the new Conservative administration’s woes seem to have shifted to the next gear.
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Hope has given way to belief. If you take one thing away from this conference, it is that this is now a party that believes – from top to bottom – it can win the next general election.
This is what Angela Rayner, the deputy leader, told me when I asked if she had a message for Liz Truss: “Do not completely trash the country before we take over and make it better.”
Jonathan Reynolds, the shadow business secretary, told me that this was the best party conference he’d ever been to, and he’s been coming since 1999.
This one was for him the best since the days of Tony Blair, because “of what it means for the country to have a party that can replace the Conservatives”.
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Starmer has eye on Tory territory
Sir Keir has always refused to be cast in the clothes of any past Labour leader, but in this speech on Tuesday he positioned himself as the heir of Blair, even quoting the former prime minister’s own words when he described Labour as the “political wing of the British people”.
Labour was a party of the aspiration, of economic responsibility, of the centre ground. These all things Sir Keir would have struggled to say a year ago – now being cheered.
“The party is unified,” said one senior figure of the left of the party. “We have been out of power for 12 years, we can’t do any more time in opposition. You can still be centre ground and be radical.”
And there were radical ideas in this speech, the most eye-catching of which was the plan for a Labour government to set up a publicly owned energy group – Great British Energy – with the ability to invest directly in renewable energy and nuclear projects within the first year of being in power.
That confidence is also being driven by polling, with a YouGov poll on Monday that put Labour on a 17 point lead against the Tories – its biggest poll lead in two decades – prompting jubilation in Liverpool.
But there is unease too that Sir Keir’s success is down to Tory failures rather than a change in fortunes between the party and the electorate, and a fear that the gains made could be undone if the Conservative government begins to please voters again. A quiet acknowledgement, if you like, that Sir Keir still hasn’t sealed the deal with the electorate.
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11:08
Labour pledges UK energy firm
When I asked Ms Rayner if the public were looking again at Labour but still don’t love Labour, she was – typically – pretty forthright. “Yes, and you know nobody is complacent. And we all know that in 2019 we’ve got a real kicking. The public didn’t see us as the future, but now they’re seeing what the Conservatives have done.”
The sinking feeling of defeat that’s plagued Labour since 2010 is now settling on the Conservative Party – a spectacle unimaginable back in 2019 when Mr Johnson romped home with an 80-seat majority and the chance to run the country for another two terms.
Now Labour has a chance to win those voters back with Sir Keir’s brand of patriotism, integrity and seriousness. As the Labour leader himself put it on Tuesday night as he addressed journalists and party members at the annual Mirror party: “You can get a sense of the political weather, the temperature, what I think about this conference is it has a different feel to it, the Labour Party is confident.”
An election is still two years away, but Labour now with a genuine opportunity to get into government. After 12 years out of power, is the tide finally about to turn?
A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.
The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.
Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.
It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.
The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.
Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.
A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.
It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.
“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.
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Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.
In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.
Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.
Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.
The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.
Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.
Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.
In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.
Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.