Putin has succeeded in mobilising a Russian army on the borders… not to fight, but flee
They come on foot, bicycles, cars and even electric scooters.
They bring what they can which isn’t much, dragging their suitcases behind them. Some have dogs and others cat boxes. They are exhausted after a journey that has taken days, but all seem hugely relieved to have left Putin’s Russia.
One couple laughed with relief. “Very tired, but happy,” said Katy. The relief seemed almost to overwhelm her.
We are on Georgia’s border crossing with Russia. It straddles a pass high in the Caucasus. A steady stream of Russians are coming through. They tell stories of chaos on the other side.
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Vitaly and Maria have four children. They left home four days ago. The last two they had spent walking and queuing with thousands of others crammed into the narrow gorge on the Russian side. They also had to bribe guards to have any chance of getting through.
Those waiting to cross face an anxious ordeal. The temperature at this altitude is either very cold, in the shade or roasting hot in the sun. One couple told us of moments of panic as rumours swept through the crowds that authorities would soon close the border – or were sending the military to find men of mobilisation age and pack them off to the front.
Some are too scared to talk even outside of Russia, fearful of retribution against their families left behind. Others seize the opportunity to speak their mind, almost shaking with anger as they do.
“Putin is a murderer,” Vitaly told me with a smouldering fury.
They had told the children they were going to the seaside he said. They couldn’t risk telling them the truth in case they passed it on to strangers. They won’t be going back until there is a change of government and a new president.
“My boy is 17 next year,” he said, pointing to his eldest. “He will be taken to the army. The war is not going to end tomorrow. If he goes, what, did I raise him for Putin?”
Vitaly and his family say they won’t return to Russia until there is a new government
They had left everything behind apart from what is in their suitcases. They even abandoned their car on the border. They had no plans beyond catching a taxi to Tbilisi, but even a future that uncertain, they said, was preferable to life under Putin.
Putin’s mobilisation decree has prompted a massive increase in the numbers of people leaving.
We met only one man who had actually received call-up papers. ‘Nick’ is now on the run from authorities who want to send him to Ukraine to fight.
His government “wants to make meat from me” he told us. He was a scientist and an engineer and has so much more than that he said to give to his country.
We have met IT specialists, managers and even a nuclear physicist. They have all given up their jobs and walked out of Russia.
Russia is haemorrhaging its brightest and best. It is a huge tragedy for the country that it will take years to recover from.
This satellite image shows the large traffic jam of trucks and cars waiting to cross the Georgian border
But it may also be exactly what the regime wants as it plots its future. The young and the savvy who have the best chance to see beyond the state’s lies and propaganda and what is really going on in their country.
One official has said as much – Ella Pamfilova, the head of Russia’s election commission.
“Let the rats who are running run,” she is quoted as saying. “The ship will be ours. It’s gaining strength and clearly moving towards its target.”
As an observer on Twitter noted, she seems gloriously unaware of the reason rats flee ships.
A mass exodus is under way. In less than a week, the number of Russians fleeing has doubled. Before Putin’s mobilisation announcement 300,000 had left – but in the week since at least that number have left.
They are fleeing into Mongolia, Finland, Kazakhstan and Georgia. Many are the younger ones, better educated and best qualified because they are of fighting age and do not want to be called up to fight.
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What’s happening on Russia’s borders as people flee Putin’s order
Vladimir Putin has succeeded in mobilising an army of Russians, mustering on the borders, not to fight but to flee.
The reservists that authorities do successfully corral into the army will likely be reluctant and demoralised. There have been multiple protests against the draft by young Russian men who do not want to fight.
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On Russian state TV, pundits openly urged the government to round up artists, street musicians, the mentally disabled and ethnic minorities and send them to war. Even by their own bigoted standards it was a startling exchange between state-funded propagandists.
Putin is looking increasingly unlikely to win this war, and the addition of hastily trained, poorly motivated men, even in their hundreds of thousands is not likely to change that.
But he is prepared it seems to send many more to the front. Between 40,000 and 80,000 have been killed or injured in this war already. Many more will follow.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.
The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.
He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.
“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”
Former governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is among the favourites to succeed him.
Chrystia Freeland, whose stunning resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister precipitated the current crisis, leads in the polls.
Other front-runners are the former premier of British Columbia, Christy Clark, current finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and minister of foreign affairs, Melanie Joly.
Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.
He came under further pressure after Ms Freeland quit in December because of policy disagreements, including over how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP
Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.
The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.
Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.
But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.
He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.
The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.
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US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.
Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.
In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.
The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.
He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.
“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”
Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.
He came under further pressure after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December over clashes on policy.
The disagreements included how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP
Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.
The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.
Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.
But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.
He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.
The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.
Read more:
Former golden boy’s popularity in shreds
Zimbabwean migrants heading to South Africa
60m Americans under weather warnings
US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.
Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.
In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.
Few one-time golden boys manage to retain their lustre long into political office.
Barack Obama just about held on to his, leaving the US presidency with his approval rating high despite his party’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump.
But Emmanuel Macron is faltering in France and Justin Trudeau steps down as head of Canada’s liberal party with his popularity in shreds. So much for Western liberal values.
In the high tides of inflation and immigration, those who were their supposed flag-bearers are no longer what electorates want.
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
For Mr Trudeau, it is a dramatic reckoning. His approval ratings have dropped from 65% at their highest in September 2016 to 22% now, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
The sudden departure of his finance minister and key political ally Chrystia Freeland last month dealt his leadership a body blow, just as Canada readies itself for a potential trade war with the US which, she argued in a bracing resignation letter, his government was not taking seriously enough.
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“Parliament has been paralysed for months,” Trudeau says
The man Mr Trump recently trolled as “Governor of the ‘Great State of Canada’ or ’51st (US) state'”, Mr Trudeau was as close to Canadian political royalty as it gets.
The son of the country’s 15th prime minister, Pierre Trudeau, he was famously toasted by US president Richard Nixon as “the future prime minister of Canada” when he joined his father on a state visit as a toddler.
Aged five, he met the late Queen for the first time. “Thank you for making me feel so old”, she remarked drily at a re-meet in Malta almost 40 years later.
He has led Canada’s liberal party since 2013 and served as the country’s 23rd prime minister for almost a decade.
Mr Trudeau won a resounding electoral victory in 2015 and secured the premiership through two subsequent elections, though as head of a minority government.
Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld
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He made significant inroads against poverty in Canada, worked hard on nation to nation reconciliation with Canada’s indigenous communities, secured an effective trade deal with the US and Mexico in 2016 and managed to keep the public mostly on-side through the COVID-19 pandemic.
But he was a polarising figure. Holidays in exotic climes like a trip to the Bahamas in 2016 to an island belonging to the Aga Khan made him seem elitist and out of touch.
There was embarrassment when blackface images surfaced from his early years as a teacher, for which he apologised profusely.
His supposed liberal credentials smacked of double standards when he invoked emergency powers to crush truckers’ protests in 2022.
But it was the economic aftermath of the pandemic, with Canada suffering an acute housing shortage, immigration leaping under his premiership and the cost of living hitting households across the board which really piled on the pressure.
In those, Canada is not unique. But the opposition conservatives and the public at large clearly want change, and Mr Trudeau has responded.
He has announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister after the Liberals selects their next leader.
Mr Trudeau’s legacy may shine brighter with a little hindsight. But now is not that moment.
The question is whether his conservative opposition will fare any better in an increasingly combative geopolitical environment if, as seems likely, a candidate of their choosing wins a federal election due at some point this year.
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