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A little under four weeks as prime minister and it couldn’t really have gone worse for Liz Truss.

A mini-budget that precipitated a run on the pound (it has rallied a bit since), a £65bn emergency intervention by the Bank of England to prop up pension funds, and the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 mortgage deals from the market in anticipation of a big hike in interest rates later this year.

The Conservatives are experiencing their worst polling since the late 1990s and dozens of Tories are contemplating losing their seats at the next election.

The question for me in Birmingham this week is simple: Has Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget already sealed her fate?

British Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng (not pictured) visit Berkeley Modular, in Northfleet, Kent, Britain, September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/Pool

Ask Conservative MPs, and there is already a movement to try to oust her. Her insistence that she will not reverse any elements of her budget, regardless of the political toxicity or the clear economic risks, has led some MPs to say privately they want her to go.

“There needs to be policy change and personnel change,” said one senior Conservative.

“There are MPs saying she simply cannot lead us through a general election and MPs are putting forward suggestions to Sir Graham Brady about rule changes.

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“One scenario is that MPs decide a new PM and it’s not put to members.

“People are very anxious.”

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When I asked the MP if Ms Truss could survive until Christmas, they told me: “I think it’s probable that she will be gone by Easter.”

‘This plan is not going to work’

A former cabinet member also confirmed that colleagues were working up options to try to remove Ms Truss, as they whispered to me that they might now stand down at the next election in the face of almost certain defeat.

“This plan is not going to work,” they said.

For a new prime minister, who in typical times might expect a honeymoon period rather than the mutterings of divorce papers, such remarks are totally damning and speak to the extremely difficult predicament she now faces.

For, just as I’d never been to a more positive Labour Party conference than the one last week, I’ve never been to a Conservative one so shrouded not just in gloom about the electoral prospects of the party, but palpable anxiety about the Truss administration.

And this is about more than even the existential threat her policies could pose to the Conservative Party.

There is genuine fear too that she might “tank the economy”. As one former senior minister told me after the mini-budget: “It’s madness and I’m scared.”

Already MPs mutter that she will have to change – the policies and the personnel, or face a showdown with her party.

One MP told me there are easily 100 MPs who could rebel against her budget. The political toxicity of abolishing the top rate of tax for those earning over £150,000 a year, while mulling a real terms benefits cut for the four million at the bottom end of the income scale relying on universal credit, is plain to see for many MPs – even if Ms Truss wants to turn a blind eye.

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But it’s not just the politics of her mini-budget, it’s the economics of it.

“We can’t ignore the cost of borrowing line item,” is how one former minister puts it. “What are the fiscal rules?”

If the prime minister can’t prove to the country, the markets, the Office of Budget Responsibility, and her backbenches that her government can achieve 2.5% growth, then the tax measures will have to be funded through debt.

And that has an obvious knock-on effect for families, with those on average mortgages having to potentially pay more in higher mortgage costs than in tax cut gains.

All of it is causing acute anxiety for MPs as they look at the polls and the prospects of their own re-election.

Plenty of those in the Sunak camp are keeping quiet for now, telling me that they want to let this play out and don’t want to take aim at Truss publicly – yet. But two outriders – former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Julian Smith – are saying publicly what many are saying privately.

This is Mr Gove on Sunday: “I think there are two specific concerns that I have about the unfunded nature of tax cuts and about the 45p tax cuts, which we now have an opportunity to reflect on.”

“And I think it would be wise for us to recognise that they are neither the right economic nor the right political response to the situation that we face at the moment,” he told journalist Christopher Hope at a Daily Telegraph event.

When he was asked whether the policy should be reversed, he didn’t blink: “Yes”.

‘We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later’

And this was former chief whip Julian Smith in response to chairman Jake Berry’s warning on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday show that Tories who voted against the mini-budget would lose the whip: “The first job of an MP is to act in the interest of their constituents and in the national interest.

“We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later.”

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All of it appears to be falling on deaf ears, with the PM and her team adamant that her plan is the right one and the mistakes over the past week were about the communications strategy not the policies.

As one of her key allies put it to me: “The PM gets this past week has been disruptive,” but “she firmly believes her plan for the economy is the right one.

“We’ve been stuck in a world of high taxes, cheap credit, and low growth for too long, with too much focus on tax and spend at the expense of growth.

“That status quo isn’t working, so we have to change course, otherwise we’re consigning the economy and country to long-term decline.

“We’ll do that and manage the public finances responsibly.”

Pro-growth, pro-investment, low-tax. That’s the mantra.

‘There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system’

The PM’s cabinet and top team are also supporting her.

One senior minister pointed out to me on the eve of the conference that such a big change in approach – the biggest shift in economic approach for a generation or more – was “always going to shock the markets” but the principles of leaving more money with individuals and businesses was the right one, as were the efforts – and we’re going to see what this looks like in practice later this year – to cut back on government costs (read: spending).

“There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system,” they said.

But will this government even get that far?

Ms Truss has four days in Birmingham to try and sell her plan not just to her members and MPs, but to the country.

The problem she has is that so many people seem to have stopped listening already.

A PM not for turning and a parliament in which many MPs now think they have nothing more to lose. Strap in.

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Why are airdrops on Gaza so dangerous?

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Why are airdrops on Gaza so dangerous?

The United Nations has condemned airdrops on Gaza, warning they risk killing the starving Palestinians they are intended to help.

Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel parachuted aid packages into the territory for the first time in months at the weekend amid claims a third of the population has not eaten for days.

But Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has said they “will not reverse the deepening starvation” and often do more harm than good.

‘Make or break’ as starvation looms; Middle East latest

“They are expensive, inefficient & can even kill starving civilians,” he wrote in a statement on X.

What is an airdrop – and why are they dangerous?

There are several ways humanitarian agencies and international allies can deliver aid to regions in need – by land, by sea, or by air.

While parachuting in supply packages from planes may look impressive, airdrops are “fraught with problems”, Sky correspondent in Jordan Sally Lockwood says, and often used as a “desperate last resort”.

“Foreign nations know airdrops are a deeply flawed way of delivering aid,” she says.

“Palestinian sources tell us the aid that’s been dropped so far is not reaching the most vulnerable. They are an attempt to get something to a few – often viewed as a desperate last resort. Gaza is at that point.”

A plane drops aid over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
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A plane drops aid over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP

Air drops land over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
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Air drops land over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP

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Military analyst Sean Bell says that delivering aid by air is ideally done when planes can land on a runway – but Gaza’s only landing strip in Rafah was shut down in 2021.

The alternative is “very dangerous”, he warns. “Aircraft flying relatively low and slow over a warzone isn’t very clever. When these parcels hit the ground, there’s a significant danger of them hitting people.”

People in Gaza scramble for aid on Saturday. Pic: @ibrahim.st7 via Storyful
Image:
People in Gaza scramble for aid on Saturday. Pic: @ibrahim.st7 via Storyful

Crucially, they can only deliver a fraction of what lorries can.

“The really big issue is aircraft can only deliver one truckload of aid. Gaza needs 500 truckloads a day, so it’s 0.2% of the daily need,” Bell adds.

They also risk falling into the wrong hands and ending up on the black market.

“Some of it has been looted by gangs and is on the black market already,” Lockwood says.

Air drops land in northern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: AP
Image:
Air drops land in northern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: AP

Why are they happening now?

Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March, reopening some aid centres in May, but with restrictions they said were designed to stop goods being stolen by Hamas militants.

Israeli authorities control the only three border crossings to the strip: Kerem Shalom in the south, Crossing 147 in the centre, and Erez to the north.

Since the current conflict with Hamas began in October 2023, humanitarian agencies and world leaders have repeatedly accused Israel of not allowing enough deliveries through.

Mr Lazzarini says the UN has “the equivalent of 6,000 trucks” in neighbouring Jordan and Egypt “waiting for the green light to get into Gaza”.

Israel says it has commissioned a “one-week scale-up of aid”, having conducted its own airdrops on Saturday.

In a statement over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Forces said it will work with the UN and other aid organisations to ensure aid is delivered but no more details were given.

Meanwhile on Sunday, it began daily 10-hour pauses in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation.

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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 133 Palestinians had died of malnutrition by then, including 87 children.

Doctors Without Borders warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are malnourished.

Israel says there is no famine in Gaza.

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Sky’s Sally Lockwood on the runway in Jordan ahead of Gaza aid airdrop

What are in the airdrops and who is behind them?

Air packages are largely being delivered by C-130 planes. Jordan is reported to be using 10 and the UAE eight.

They can carry eight pallets of goods each, weighing around eight tonnes in total, according to Lockwood, who is on the runway at Jordan’s King Abdullah II airbase.

There are no medical supplies in the packages, she says, only dried food, rice, flour, and baby formula.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will help with airdrops – but no British aircraft have been seen in Jordan so far.

He will discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump during talks in Scotland on Monday.

The RAF delivered 110 tonnes of aid across 10 drops last year as part of a Jordanian-led international coalition – but it is not clear what level of support will be offered this time.

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Israel-Hamas war: ‘Vast amounts of aid needed to stave off catastrophic health crisis in Gaza,’ UN warns

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Israel-Hamas war: 'Vast amounts of aid needed to stave off catastrophic health crisis in Gaza,' UN warns

Israel has agreed to support a “one-week scale-up of aid” in Gaza – but the United Nations has warned more action is needed to “stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis”.

UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made the remarks as Israel began limited pauses in fighting across three areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day to address the worsening humanitarian situation.

Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza’s population from the start of March. It then reopened aid centres with new restrictions in May, but said the supply had to be controlled to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas militants.

A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters

On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamas had stolen aid from UN agencies.

Images of emaciated Palestinian children have led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, including by allies who are calling for an end to the war.

Mr Fletcher said one in three people in Gaza “hasn’t eaten for days” and “children are wasting away”.

He added: “We welcome Israel’s decision to support a one-week scale-up of aid, including lifting customs barriers on food, medicine and fuel from Egypt and the reported designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.

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“Some movement restrictions appear to have been eased today, with initial reports indicating that over 100 truckloads were collected.

“This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis. Across the UN agencies and humanitarian community, we are mobilised to save as many lives as we can.”

An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
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An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters

The Israel Defence Forces said yesterday that it is halting military operations in Muwasi, Deir al Balah and Gaza City daily from 10am to 8pm local time (8am to 6pm UK time) until further notice.

Combat operations have continued outside of this 10-hour window. Health officials in Gaza said Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians overnight into Sunday morning, including 26 seeking aid.

In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.

A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused
Image:
A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused

Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.

While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in the territory, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.

Palestinian sources confirmed that aid had begun dropping in northern parts of the territory.

Palestinians carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, July 27, 2025. REUTERS/Dawoud Ab
Image:
Palestinians in Beit Lahia carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters

Sabreen Hasson, a Palestinian mother who travelled to an aid point near the Zikim crossing to collect supplies, said: “I came to get flour for my children because they have not tasted flour for more than a week, and thank God, God provided me with a kilo of rice with difficulty.”

But Samira Yahda, who was in Zawaida in central Gaza, said: “We saw the planes, but we didn’t see what they dropped… they said trucks would pass, but we didn’t see the trucks.”

Another Palestinian told the AP news agency that some people feared going out and having a box of aid fall on their children.

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25% of young children ‘now malnourished in Gaza’

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Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza

Gaza is expected to be a focus during talks Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump in Scotland today.

Downing Street said Sir Keir will raise “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the US president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.

Reports also suggest the prime minister is planning to interrupt the summer recess and recall his cabinet to discuss the crisis on Tuesday.

Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.

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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’

Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.

Meanwhile the exiled head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al Hayya, has warned ceasefire negotiations with Israel were “meaningless under continued blockade and starvation”.

In a recorded speech, he added: “The immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.”

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Israel intercepts Gaza aid boat

During a meeting with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Mr Trump emphasised the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.

He said: “They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision.

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Starmer says UK will help drop aid to Gaza

“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said.

Mr Trump also repeated claims, without evidence, that Hamas was stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.

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Israeli military announces ‘tactical pause’ in fighting in parts of Gaza amid hunger crisis

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Israeli military announces 'tactical pause' in fighting in parts of Gaza amid hunger crisis

Israel has begun a pause in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the worsening humanitarian situation.

The IDF said it would halt fighting in three areas, Muwasi, Deir al-Balah and Gaza City, from 10am to 8pm local time until further notice, beginning today.

In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.

Palestinians carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, July 27, 2025. REUTERS/Dawoud Ab
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Palestinians carry aid supplies. Pic: Reuters

Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.

While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in Gaza, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.

Reports suggest aid has already been dropped into Gaza, with some injured after fighting broke out.

Pic: IDF
Image:
Pic: IDF

In other developments, Bob Geldof has accused Israeli authorities of “lying” about starvation in the territory – telling Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the IDF is “dangling food in front of starving, panicked, exhausted mothers”.

He told Sky News: “This month, up to now, 1,000 children or 1,000 people have died of starvation. I’m really not interested in what either of these sides are saying.”

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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’

Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza from the start of March. It then reopened aid centres with new restrictions in May, but said the supply had to be controlled to prevent it from being stolen by Hamas militants.

On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamas had stolen aid from UN agencies.

The IDF’s international spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, described such reports as “fake news” and said Hamas thefts have been “well documented”.

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Malnourished girl: ‘The war changed me’

Airdrops ‘expensive and inefficient’

It comes as the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said as of Saturday, 127 people have died from malnutrition-related causes, including 85 children.

They include a five-month-old girl who weighed less than when she was born, with a doctor at Nasser Hospital describing it as a case of “severe, severe starvation”.

Health workers have also been weakened by hunger, with some putting themselves on IV drips so they can keep treating badly malnourished patients.

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Aid waiting to be distributed in Gaza

On Friday, Israel said it would allow foreign countries to airdrop aid into Gaza – but the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has warned this will not reverse “deepening starvation”.

UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini described the method as “expensive” and “inefficient”, adding: “It is a distraction and screensmoke. A manmade hunger can only be addressed by political will.

“Lift the siege, open the gates and guarantee safe movements and dignified access to people in need.”

UNRWA has the equivalent of 6,000 trucks in Jordan and Egypt waiting for permission to enter Gaza, he added.

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PM says UK will help drop aid to Gaza

MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished, and said the lack of food and water on the ground was “unconscionable”.

The UN also estimates Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 people seeking food, the majority near the militarised distribution sites of the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

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In a statement on Friday, the IDF had said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians”, and reports of incidents at aid distribution sites were “under examination”.

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has also previously disputed these deaths were connected with its organisation’s operations, with director Johnnie Moore telling Sky News: “We just want to feed Gazans. That’s the only thing that we want to do.”

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