His 62nd home run — which came off Texas Rangers righty Jesus Tinoco on Tuesday in the Yankees’ final series of the regular season — moved him past Maris, who held the previous Junior Circuit record with 61 home runs in 1961. Judge also broke Maris’ famed franchise record, previously held by Babe Ruth, who hit 60 in 1927. Now, Judge joins Ruth and Maris as the only AL players to hit 60 or more home runs in a season.
So how did he do it? Let’s break down Judge’s road to 62.
When we all started talking about 62
While Judge’s season hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere — after all, he did hit a then-rookie-record 52 home runs in 2017 — this run to 62 wasn’t exactly anticipated, either. While remaining an enormously productive hitter in the ensuing seasons, after averaging a home run every 10.42 at-bats in 2017, Judge averaged one every 14.14 at-bats from 2018 to 2021. Remaining healthy and playing 148 games in 2021, he hit 39 home runs, hardly a harbinger for a historic season when you consider Brandon Lowe and Mitch Haniger also hit 39.
Judge also didn’t come roaring out of the gate: He hit one home run in his first 13 games. It took some time before everyone realized this could be a special season. My colleague Bradford Doolittle set up a day-by-day spreadsheet for Judge, creating estimated levels of playing time and home run percentage to compute a projected end-of-season home run total (differing from just a straight-up season pace).
Judge began the season with a projected total of 40.9 home runs — which dipped to 39.5 after he went homerless in his first five games. That would equal his lowest projected total. After finishing the abbreviated April schedule with six home runs in 20 games, Judge’s projected total had climbed to 47.9. Impressive, but he was hardly the talk of baseball yet, especially since teammate Anthony Rizzo led the majors with nine home runs in April.
Judge first reached a season pace of 50 on May 13 after homering against the Chicago White Sox but went back and forth between 49 and 50 for 10 days, until homering twice on May 23 in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles, bumping his projected total to 52.6. But he homered just once more the rest of the month, dropping his projection to 50.9. Nobody was talking 62, although Judge’s 18 home runs now topped the majors.
After belting 11 more home runs in June, Judge’s projection had climbed to 54.2 (with a straight-up pace of 61.0). This was starting to get interesting, but you might remember that Yordan Alvarez hit .418 in June, and while he trailed Judge by six home runs, Alvarez had a much higher weighted runs created plus (wRC+), hitting .316/.412/.658 to Judge’s .286/.361/.627. Judge had 62 in his sights, but the debate over the best hitter of 2022 was on.
Then came July — or, more specifically, a hot streak that started just before the All-Star break and saw Judge crack 12 home runs in 14 games through July 30. His projected total was now up to 62.0, and his straight-up pace was a ridiculous 66.7 (and that number would peak Aug. 1 at 67.0).
Judge did slow down a little in August, and a nine-game homerless streak through Aug. 21 dropped his projected total to 58.5 (with a straight-up pace of 61.1). He then responded with another barrage of power in September to make history and join Ruth and Maris in the American League’s 60-homer club.
It’s interesting how Judge’s season tracks with Maris’. Not only did Maris hit 39 home runs in 1960, the year before he hit 61, he also started slow in his recorded-breaking campaign, with just one homer in 15 games in April. Maris was a model of consistency after that, however, with at least 10 home runs in each of the final five months. Maris’ biggest hot streak was a stretch from May 28 to June 22, when he hit 19 homers in 29 contests.
Ruth’s race to 60 was a little different, as he hit nine home runs in each of June, July and August, before finishing with a flourish — 17 in 28 games in September and October, including seven over his final nine games (including a homerless game in the season finale). Of course, Ruth only played 151 games in his 154-game schedule, leading one to wonder what he might have done with an extra eight games.
Then again, Ruth wasn’t seeing too many 95 mph fastballs — and Judge has hit 11 home runs off pitches of at least that speed.
Home-field advantage? Hardly!
Yes, we all know that right field at Yankee Stadium is a joke. There are high school fields where it’s more difficult to hit a home run to right; at Yankee Stadium, it is only 314 feet down the line and doesn’t arc out as quickly as other ballparks. And, yes, for a right-handed batter, Judge is adept at going the other way, as 15 of his 62 home runs went to the opposite field. But, no, he hasn’t really taken big advantage of Yankee Stadium.
On the most basic level, Judge hit 30 of his 62 home runs at Yankee Stadium — one every 10 at-bats. He has hit 32 on the road — one every 8.8 at-bats. Mostly, Judge just doesn’t hit many cheap home runs. His shortest of the season was a 355-foot shot to right, but it came at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. He has hit three 364-foot home runs this year at Yankee Stadium. I reviewed those three:
April 22 off Tanner Tully: Line drive into the third row of bleachers in right field. Not a massive blast and maybe not out at every park, but not one I call a cheap home run.
June 15 off Shane McClanahan: Just over the fence in right-center. Definitely a Yankee Stadium home run given its dimensions in that area of the park.
July 30 off Jon Heasley: Another cheap one in the same vicinity as the homer against McClanahan. In fact, if a fan didn’t reach out to make the catch, Royals right fielder MJ Melendez might have hauled it in.
So, Judge has received a couple of gifts from his park. But he has homered even more often on the road. That doesn’t mean he would have hit this many in every park. Statcast, using just raw distances of his home runs, estimates Judge would have just 49 home runs if he had played all his games at Comerica Park (where right-center is particularly deep). But he would have 70 if he played all his games in Cincinnati or Colorado. So no real home-field advantage here. Sit back and appreciate his feats of strength.
Judge’s most valuable homers
What have been Judge’s biggest home runs? We can rank his top seven home runs by win probability added (WPA), which simply tells us how much the odds of the Yankees winning the game changes after each play (or, in this case, each home run), given the score, inning and number of outs and baserunners.
1. May 10: Walk-off against Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays to give the Yankees a 6-5 victory
WPA: 0.796
The most dramatic of Judge’s home runs sent Yankee Stadium into a frenzy as he crushed a 1-2 slider into the second deck in left field in the bottom of the ninth, a 414-foot blast off one of the better closers in the game. That kicked off a stretch of eight home runs in 13 games for Judge.
2. July 28: Walk-off against Scott Barlow of the Royals to give the Yankees a 1-0 victory
WPA: 0.424
Judge’s 39th home run came with one out off of a first-pitch, 95-mph fastball from Barlow, a 431-foot shot over the bullpen in center field. This came during his post All-Star blitz.
3. June 26: Walk-off in the bottom of the 10th off Houston’s Seth Martinez to give the Yankees a 6-3 victory
WPA: 0.360
With runners at first and third and two outs, the Astros elected to go after Judge. Martinez got a swinging strike on a first-pitch slider but came back with another slider and Judge didn’t miss, sending a low liner over the fence in left-center. Judge nearly cost himself a home run though: He started making a turn for the dugout after reaching first base, before he was reminded to finish his trot around the bases.
4. May 22: Home run off Kendall Graveman of the White Sox that tied the game 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth
WPA: 0.328
Graveman tried to slip an 0-2, 97-mph sinker past Judge, but left it up in the zone and Judge drilled into the second deck in left field (although the White Sox would win the game with two runs in the top of the ninth).
5. July 22: Three-run homer off Baltimore’s Tyler Wells to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead in the third
WPA: 0.290
This one doesn’t seem so dramatic, but it came with two outs (win probability goes up) and with two runners on, meaning the Yankees’ chances of winning the game increased significantly. Judge would add a second home run off Wells as the Yankees held on for a 7-6 victory.
6. Sept. 28: Go-ahead two-run homer in the top of the seventh off Toronto’s Tim Mayza
WPA: 0.267
Judge’s record-tying 61st home run of the season made an impact. At 117.4 mph, the line drive was also Judge’s hardest-hit home run of 2022.
7. Sept. 13: Game-tying home run in the top of the eighth off Boston’s Garrett Whitlock
WPA: 0.245
This was Judge’s second game-tying home run that day, coming off a 1-1 slider he lifted over the Green Monster. If you factor in game importance — mid-September, with the Rays having clawed closer to the Yankees — this home run deserves a higher ranking. Oh, in the top of the 10th, the Red Sox intentionally walked Judge with a runner on third and two outs. It backfired, as Gleyber Torres would later smack a three-run double and the Yankees won 7-6.
By the way, average WPA for Ruth, Maris and Judge:
Ruth: 0.119
Maris: 0.132
Judge: 0.137
He hits … well, everything
Thanks to the marvels of modern pitch tracking, we know everything about the pitcher-batter confrontation. And I mean everything. One of the coolest Statcast numbers found at MLB’s Baseball Savant site is how each batter fares against different pitches, broken down into overall run value produced.
The best hitter in baseball in 2022? Aaron Judge against sliders, with a run value of plus-28.
The second-best? Aaron Judge against four-seam fastballs, with a run value of plus-26.
To show how Judge has dominated the sport, the only other hitter with a run value over 20 against a single pitch is Alvarez against four-seamers, at plus-21.
Look at Judge’s numbers against individual pitches:
1.254 OPS against four-seamers
1.250 OPS against two-seamers/sinkers
1.191 OPS against curveballs
1.100 OPS against sliders
.794 OPS against changeups
And in limited results, an .832 OPS against cutters and .476 against splitters (2-for-14). Anyway: Judge is punishing everything.
His big improvement in 2022 has come against sliders. From 2017 to 2021, he hit .217/.331/.408 against them, while hitting over .300 against four-seamers and two-seamers. Last season, he ranked 90th in run value against sliders at plus-3 — and as we just saw, he’s No. 1 in 2022.
That all adds up to 62 home runs … and a slice of baseball history.
TAMPA, Fla. — Matthew Tkachuk made his long-awaited return to the lineup and was back to his old self quickly on Tuesday night for the Florida Panthers, who opened this postseason the way they ended last postseason: With a win.
Playing for the first time in more than two months after dealing with a lower-body injury, Tkachuk scored two second-period goals in his return game, as the Panthers handled the rival Tampa Bay Lightning6-2 in this Eastern Conference first-round series opener at Amalie Arena.
Those two goals were both of the power-play variety, the first putting Florida up 4-1 — the second goal for the Panthers in a 14-second span — and the next one pushing the lead to 5-1 midway through the second period.
It was just like old times: Tkachuk got twisted up with Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel — someone he fought during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament — after one whistle, took the game’s first penalty on a roughing call (leading to Tampa Bay’s first goal), then made sure his name was all over the score sheet.
Florida coach Paul Maurice, in his in-game, bench interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, said he was comfortable with what he was seeing from Tkachuk in his first game back and expected him to “be the difference-maker” for the Panthers.
“That’s what he is for us,” Maurice said. “He’s got an incredible set of hands, got an incredible gift for the emotional needs of a game, when you need a hit, when you need a big play. He’s been great for us.”
Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart also scored for the Panthers, and veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt, not known for his offense, added two more goals, as Florida, which won the Stanley Cup last June, hammered an Atlantic Division foe in front of a sellout crowd, setting up an all-important Game 2 on Thursday.
Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to be sharper in that game, after a Tuesday performance to forget. The two-time Stanley Cup winner allowed all six goals on just 16 shots, closing with a .625 save percentage. Across the ice, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky made 20 saves en route to the win.
“The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive. We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. “But in the end, we gave up six goals. We’re a pretty decent defensive team, and we have a very good [penalty-kill unit], and we gave up three [goals] on that. … In the end, those are areas of strength of ours, so I’m pretty confident we can button those up, and we’ll be OK.”
Jake Guentzel, in his first season with the club, and Brayden Point scored for Tampa Bay. But the Lightning played the final 33:30 without center Anthony Cirelli, and it showed. There was no immediate word why the 27-year-old center was out.
“We gave up 16 shots, and that’s usually a good night, but tonight wasn’t that. They’re a good team, we know they have good players,” Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman said. “So, for us, it’s all about refocusing, make sure we have a good practice tomorrow, and get ready for the next one.”
Whether Tkachuk would even play in Game 1 wasn’t certain until just before game time. Tkachuk went through practices Saturday and Monday, then took part in the team’s day-of-game skate Tuesday before the decision on his return was made. Maurice even indicated that it could come down to the final few minutes before the 8:48 p.m. start time of the game.
“It’s not really a guy you can put a label on,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “He’s such a unicorn of a player. But, more than anything, just how he is in the room, getting the guys fired up for the game, you feel his energy, you feel his excitement.”
Tkachuk hadn’t played for the Panthers since Feb. 8 because of a lower-body injury suffered during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament two months ago. He missed the team’s final 25 games of the regular season, yet still finished with 22 goals and 57 points — third most on the team in all three categories. He was also second on the Panthers this season with 11 power-play goals.
“There’s no better time to be an athlete,” Tkachuk told Kaplan in a postgame interview, in reference to the postseason. “This is the time of our lives. And just getting a win here in Game 1 is the cherry on top.”
Panthers forward Brad Marchand, acquired at the NHL trade deadline from the Boston Bruins, made his postseason debut for his new team in the win and also played with Tkachuk for the first time. Marchand had an assist and two shots on net in his 17:15 of ice time, and seemed to fit right in with Florida’s dominant forward group.
“Both teams will look at the tape and find things that they can do better,” Maurice said after the win. “But there isn’t an established identity to the series yet.”
“It’s definitely a salty feeling in here. We didn’t have a great start to this series like we talked about,” the veteran said. “But we know we can be better. We’ve got another level and we’ll find a way to get to that.”
The Panthers took a 1-0 series lead by scoring six times on 16 shots against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. After Sam Bennett and Jake Guentzel traded goals in the first period, the Panthers scored four straight times — including goals by Nate Schmidt and Matthew Tkachuk that were 14 seconds apart in the second period. Schmidt’s goal was unsuccessfully challenged for goalie interference by the Lightning, earning a delay of game penalty. Tkachuk scored on the ensuing power play to make it 4-1.
“Yeah, you’ve got to stop that bleeding,” defenseman Victor Hedman said. “We give up that third one. The challenge that didn’t go our way and we give up one right away. That’s tough, but we got to make sure it stops there and not give up the fifth one as well.”
Tkachuk, returning to the Florida lineup for the first time after being injured in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, scored his second of the game on the power play at 9:44 of the second period to make it 5-1 for the Panthers, en route to the 6-2 rout.
“You see him being able to step into a game and be impactful,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “That’s who he is. He’s a playoff player.”
Lightning coach Jon Cooper, who has won two of the three Battle of Florida playoff series against the Panthers, appreciated his team’s effort despite the result.
“I love this team. They try. They’re always trying, and they did that again tonight. Sometimes the results aren’t there. Most nights they are,” he said. “We can sit here and dissect this game all we want. The bottom line is we lost. Whether you lose 6-2 or you lose 1-0 in overtime, we lost the game. Turn the page and move on. Let’s sit here in 48 hours or whatever it is and dissect that one. This one’s over.”
The Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup champion. Cooper noted that a number of his players were seeing their first playoff action in Game 1.
“We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well. But in the end we gave up six goals,” he said. “The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive.”
That said, it took just one game for the Panthers to flex on the Lightning defense and special teams, going 3-for-3 on the power play. One huge factor in that domination was an injury to Lightning center Anthony Cirelli, their best defensive forward and a key to their penalty kill. He left the game after taking two shifts in the second period. There was no update on his status after the game.
Game 2 is Thursday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa.
Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — Catcher Miguel Amaya was confident he’d be jogging around the bases when he blasted a two-out, ninth-inning baseball high into the Wrigley Field sky with his Chicago Cubs trailing 10-9 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.
He was right — but just barely.
Amaya’s 388-foot shot landed in the center field basket, sending the home crowd into a frenzy as Dodgers closer Tanner Scott blew the save. And one inning later, the Cubs won the game 11-10 on an Ian Happ run-scoring single off Noah Davis, capping yet another wild affair at Wrigley.
According to Statcast, Amaya’s blast would have been a home run in exactly one park in the majors.
“As a baseball player, its something you dream of,” Amaya said. “As soon as I hit, I felt it was out but then I saw the center fielder getting into position to catch it. Then it was, ‘Oh my god, I have to run,’ but it was enough to get out.
“I love those basket balls.”
It was the second time in five days that both teams playing at Wrigley scored 10 or more runs; on Friday, the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 13-11 thanks to a six-run eighth inning that was preceded by a 10-run frame by Arizona.
On Tuesday, the Cubs led 5-3 after the first inning, but the Dodgers took a 10-7 lead thanks to a five-run seventh aided by an error from third baseman Gage Workman. As has been the case all month, the Cubs kept fighting back. Right fielder Kyle Tucker brought them within one with an eighth-inning home run before Amaya tied it in the ninth.
“They’ve done some amazing things and some resilient things, most importantly,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said of the team’s play on its homestand. “You win games like that early in the season and it’s a great carry forward for the rest of the season.”
The Cubs improved to 15-10 thanks to a high-powered offense that leads the league in scoring at just over six runs per game. They’ve tallied 10 or more runs in seven games already, their most through 25 games of a season since 1895, according to ESPN Research. No other team this season has done it more than 3 times.
Counsell credited his bullpen in shutting down the Dodgers in the final few innings.
The Cubs also did well facing Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. He went 0 for 4, lowering his batting average against them this year to .167. Against all other teams, he’s hitting .302.
He also went 0-for-3 against Shota Imanaga and is now 0-for-10 against the Cubs starter.
“The next 10 at-bats he might get 10 hits,” Imanaga said. “It’s been a small miracle that it’s happened 10 times in a row.”
The Cubs keep on performing miracles at the plate both in the colder conditions this month and in the few games where the weather has been favorable for hitters. That included Tuesday, when it was 71 degrees with the wind blowing out at first pitch. It led to six home runs, none bigger than Amaya’s.
“Basket hurt us a couple times last year,” Counsell said with a smirk. “It was helpful tonight.”