Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance

Published

2 years ago

October 5, 2022

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The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.

They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.

Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.

“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”

There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.

Supply is a critical issue

About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.

This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.

And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.

The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.

Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.

UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage

The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.

The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.

This brings us to the issue of demand.

In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.

Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.

Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.

But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.

There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy

The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.

Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.

And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.

If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.

There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.

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UK

Gatwick Airport: Police release two people who were detained amid security incident as South Terminal reopens

Published

34 mins ago

November 23, 2024

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Gatwick Airport: Police release two people who were detained amid security incident as South Terminal reopens

Two people detained during a security incident at Gatwick Airport have been allowed to continue their journeys after a suspect package saw a “large part” of the South Terminal evacuated.

The terminal was closed for hours after the discovery of a “suspected prohibited item” in a passenger’s luggage sparked an emergency response. It reopened at around 3.45pm.

Officers from the EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal) team “made the package safe” before handing the airport back to its operator, Sussex Police said.

Their statement continued: “Two people who were detained while enquiries were ongoing have subsequently been allowed to continue their journeys.

“There will remain an increased police presence in the area to assist with passengers accessing the South Terminal for onward travel.”

The force also thanked the public and airport staff for their patience while the incident was ongoing.

Earlier the airport, which is the UK’s second busiest, said the terminal was evacuated after a “security incident”.

“The earlier security alert has now been resolved and cleared by police,” it later said in a statement on Friday afternoon.

“The South Terminal is reopening to staff and will be open to passengers shortly.”

Gatwick said some flights were cancelled while others were delayed.

It said passengers should contact their airlines for any updates on flights.

Footage on social media taken outside the airport showed crowds of travellers heading away from the terminal building.

“Arrived at London Gatwick for routine connection. Got through customs to find out they’re evacuating the entire airport,” one passenger said.

“Even people through security are being taken outside. Trains shut down,” another passenger added, who said “thousands” of people were forced to leave.

Another passenger said people near the gates were being told to stay there and not go back to the departure lounge.

People outside the airport were handed blankets and water, passengers told Sky News.

The airport said its North Terminal was still operating normally.

Gatwick Express said its trains did not call at Gatwick Airport during the police response, but the airport said trains would start calling there again once the terminal was fully reopened.

More than 600 flights were due to take off or land at Gatwick on Friday, amounting to more than 121,000 passenger seats, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

UK

Starmer says UK will ‘set out a path’ to raise defence spending to 2.5%

Published

4 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Starmer says UK will 'set out a path' to raise defence spending to 2.5%

The UK will “set out a path” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring, the prime minister has said, finally offering a timeframe for an announcement on the long-awaited hike after mounting criticism.

Sir Keir Starmer gave the date during a phone call with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, in the wake of threats by Moscow to target UK and US military facilities following a decision by London and Washington to let Ukraine fire their missiles inside Russia.

There was no clarity though on when the 2.5% level will be achieved. The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence.

Ukraine war latest: Follow live updates

A spokeswoman for Downing Street said that the two men “began by discussing the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the importance of putting the country in the strongest possible position going into the winter”.

They also talked about the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia.

“The prime minister underscored the need for all NATO countries to step up in support of our collective defence and updated on the government’s progress on the strategic defence review,” the spokeswoman said.

“His government would set out the path to 2.5% in the spring.”

The defence review will also be published in the spring.

While a date for an announcement on 2.5% will be welcomed by the Ministry of Defence, analysts have long warned that such an increase is still well below the amount that is needed to rebuild the armed forces after decades of decline to meet growing global threats from Russia, an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Iran.

They say the UK needs to be aiming to hit at least 3% – probably higher.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there will be significantly more pressure on the UK and other European NATO allies to accelerate increases in defence spending.