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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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How would planned blackouts work?

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

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There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

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How rising costs will affect you

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

Read more on Sky News:
Plan for three-hour power blackouts to prioritise heating in event of gas shortages
Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

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‘What can I do if I don’t have money?’

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

Read more: How much will my bills increase now the energy price cap comes into effect

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

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Starmer vows to fight any plots to oust him – as Labour MPs fear major budget backlash

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Starmer vows to fight any plots to oust him - as Labour MPs fear major budget backlash

Sir Keir Starmer is vowing to fight any challenge to his leadership rather than stand aside, amid claims of plotting by MPs being compared to TV’s The Traitors.

Number 10 is going on the attack ahead of a difficult budget this month, with fears it could prove so unpopular that Labour MPs may move against Sir Keir.

But Sky News political editor Beth Rigby reports the prime minister “has no intention of giving way”, with allies warning any challenge would lead to a “drawn-out leadership election, spook the markets, and create more chaos that further damages the Labour brand”.

One senior figure told Rigby any move against Sir Keir would be more likely to arrive after next May’s elections, rather than the budget.

They said many Labour MPs could probably get behind measures like tax rises for wealthier workers, pensioners and landlords, as well as scrapping the two-child benefit cap, if that’s what the chancellor announces on 26 November.

But there are a series of potentially damaging elections in May, including in London and for the Senedd in Wales, as Labour face a challenge from Reform UK on the right and parties like the Greens and Plaid Cymru on the left.

Rigby said there is a “settled view among some very senior figures in the party that Starmer lacks the charisma and communication skills to take on Nigel Farage and win over the public, particularly if or when he breaks a bunch of manifesto pledges”.

Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves have refused to rule out breaking their manifesto promises not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT at the budget.

The Number 10 operation to ward off a challenge comes after Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates likened the febrile mood in the Labour high command to the TV hit The Traitors.

Speaking on the Politics At Sam And Anne’s podcast, he said: “A minister got in touch at the start of the weekend to say they believe that there’s some quite substantial plotting going on.

“They say there was at least one cabinet minister telling colleagues that Keir Starmer, and I quote, is finished.”

We’ve been here before…


John Craig

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

When Boris Johnson was facing mutiny from Conservative MPs, his allies launched “Operation Save Big Dog”.

When Margaret Thatcher was about to be ousted by her rebellious MPs in 1990, she declared: “I fight on, I fight to win.”

And Harold Wilson, constantly paranoid about plots, famously quipped in 1969: “I know what’s going on. I’m going on.”

Boris Johnson was ousted less than six months after “Operation Save Big Dog”, Margaret Thatcher resigned the following morning after saying “I fight on”, and Harold Wilson lost a general election to Edward Heath a year after vowing that he would go on.

Just saying.

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Coates said the cabinet minister “absolutely and totally denies they are up to anything nefarious whatsoever”.

“I actually do think that this is all in the style of The Traitors, because I’m not sure that there is hard and fast evidence of plotting – there might be some hints from some quarters,” he added.

“But what seems to be completely logical is that if you’re a bit worried in Number 10, you’re trying to pitch roll and ward off people who are maybe thinking about the need to position themselves by starting to get out rumours of plots and hoping that the political system turns against them for disloyalty.”

Who is plotting to unseat the PM? Pic: PA
Image:
Who is plotting to unseat the PM? Pic: PA

Cloak-and-dagger

Reports emerged on Tuesday night in The Times, The Guardian, and from the BBC of a “bunker mode” in Number 10, “regime change”, and “plotting” to replace Sir Keir.

Responding to the reports, Health Secretary Wes Streeting denied he was seeking to oust the prime minister.

A spokesperson for Mr Streeting told Sky News: “These claims are categorically untrue.

“Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life.”

It's not me, insists Wes Streeting. Pic: Reuters
Image:
It’s not me, insists Wes Streeting. Pic: Reuters

However, there is clearly a co-coordinated campaign by allies of the increasingly unpopular Sir Keir to try to prevent a leadership challenge by a cabinet minister or stalking horse.

Sir Keir’s biographer Tom Baldwin questioned the logic of those briefing from within the corridors of power.

“I’m at a loss to understand why anyone would think this sort of briefing will help Keir Starmer, the government, or even their own cause,” he said on social media. “Some people just can’t resist, I guess, but it’s all a bit nuts.”

What next?

It comes ahead of Prime Minister’s Questions this lunchtime, handing Tory leader Kemi Badenoch the chance to make it an awkward afternoon for Sir Keir.

The health secretary will start his day on Sky News’ Morning With Ridge And Frost and will then speak at an NHS providers’ conference.

Watch and follow live coverage across Sky News – including in the Politics Hub.

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Government to reconsider whether to give compensation to Waspi women

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Government to reconsider whether to give compensation to Waspi women

A decision not to award compensation to the Waspi women will be reconsidered by the government because of undisclosed “evidence”, the Work and Pensions Secretary has said.

Waspi women – Women Against State Pensions Inequality – are those born in the 1950s who say they were not given sufficient warning of the state pension age for women being lifted – to be in line with men – from 60 to 65.

Politics Live: Who are the Waspi women and what happened to them?

They have long argued that this was done too quickly, leaving some women financially unprepared to cope with the number of years when they were no longer able to claim their state pension.

The government said in December that they would not be compensated, because most women knew the changes were coming.

Waspi campaigners at a protest in Westminster in October last year. Pic: PA
Image:
Waspi campaigners at a protest in Westminster in October last year. Pic: PA

But Pat McFadden told the Commons on Tuesday: “Since then, as part of the legal proceedings challenging the government’s decision, evidence has been cited about research findings from a 2007 report.”

The cabinet minister was referring to the rediscovery of a 2007 Department for Work and Pensions evaluation which had led to officials stopping sending automatic pension forecast letters out.

Mr McFadden said: “In light of this, and in the interest of fairness and transparency, I have concluded that the government should now consider this evidence. This means we will retake the decision made last December as it relates to the communications on State Pension age.”

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Around 3.6 million women were impacted by the change to the state pension age. The government has previously said compensating them could cost £10.5bn.

Mr McFadden stressed that reviewing the decision should not be taken as an indication that the government will “decide that it should award financial redress”.

Angela Madden, the chair of Waspi, said the decision was a “major step forward”.

“The government now knows it got it wrong, and we are pleased they are now trying to do it properly,” she said.

“The only correct thing to do is to immediately compensate the 3.6 million Waspi women who have already waited too long for justice.”

The decision to refuse compensation was made despite a recommendation by the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman (PHSO) that the women should be paid up to £2,950 each.

The PHSO’s findings are not binding, and last year the then-work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said that the cost could not be justified as most women knew about the changes.

Sir Keir Starmer also said compensation would “burden” the taxpayer.

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New law could help tackle AI-generated child abuse at source, says watchdog

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New law could help tackle AI-generated child abuse at source, says watchdog

Groups tackling AI-generated child sexual abuse material could be given more powers to protect children online under a proposed new law.

Organisations like the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF), as well as AI developers themselves, will be able to test the ability of AI models to create such content without breaking the law.

That would mean they could tackle the problem at the source, rather than having to wait for illegal content to appear before they deal with it, according to Kerry Smith, chief executive of the IWF.

The IWF deals with child abuse images online, removing hundreds of thousands every year.

Ms Smith called the proposed law a “vital step to make sure AI products are safe before they are released”.

An IWF analyst at work. Pic: IWF
Image:
An IWF analyst at work. Pic: IWF

How would the law work?

The changes are due to be tabled today as an amendment to the Crime and Policing Bill.

The government said designated bodies could include AI developers and child protection organisations, and it will bring in a group of experts to ensure testing is carried out “safely and securely”.

The new rules would also mean AI models can be checked to make sure they don’t produce extreme pornography or non-consensual intimate images.

“These new laws will ensure AI systems can be made safe at the source, preventing vulnerabilities that could put children at risk,” said Technology Secretary Liz Kendall.

“By empowering trusted organisations to scrutinise their AI models, we are ensuring child safety is designed into AI systems, not bolted on as an afterthought.”

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AI child abuse image-maker jailed

AI abuse material on the rise

The announcement came as new data was published by the IWF showing reports of AI-generated child sexual abuse material have more than doubled in the past year.

According to the data, the severity of material has intensified over that time.

The most serious category A content – images involving penetrative sexual activity, sexual activity with an animal, or sadism – has risen from 2,621 to 3,086 items, accounting for 56% of all illegal material, compared with 41% last year.

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The data showed girls have been most commonly targeted, accounting for 94% of illegal AI images in 2025.

The NSPCC called for the new laws to go further and make this kind of testing compulsory for AI companies.

“It’s encouraging to see new legislation that pushes the AI industry to take greater responsibility for scrutinising their models and preventing the creation of child sexual abuse material on their platforms,” said Rani Govender, policy manager for child safety online at the charity.

“But to make a real difference for children, this cannot be optional.

“Government must ensure that there is a mandatory duty for AI developers to use this provision so that safeguarding against child sexual abuse is an essential part of product design.”

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