Energy crisis: How worried should we be about the lights going out?

Published

2 years ago

October 6, 2022

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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

UK

UK weather: New ice warnings issued and runway closure causes travel delays – as temperatures set to reach -16C

Published

2 hours ago

January 9, 2025

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UK weather: New ice warnings issued and runway closure causes travel delays - as temperatures set to reach -16C

The Met Office has put yellow weather warnings over snow and ice in place from this afternoon covering much of the UK.

It had a number of yellow warnings in place on Thursday across the country, but most were initially set to expire by 11am, with only a snow and ice alert in Scotland remaining until midnight.

But it has now updated its map to show yellow ice warnings for much of the Midlands, North West England, Eastern England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 4pm on Thursday until 10am on Friday, while the snow and ice warning for Scotland has been extended to 10am on Friday.

A separate yellow warning for ice is in force from 3am on Friday until 11am, covering South West England and parts of South Wales.

It comes as large swathes of the country deal with disruption caused by the freezing weather, with temperatures expected to fall as low as -16C on Thursday night both in the northeast of England and Scotland, the Met Office has said.

Manchester Airport has warned passengers of delays after temporarily closing its runways due to “significant levels of snow”.

In a statement on Thursday morning, the airport said: “Our runways are temporarily closed due to significant levels of snow, as our teams work hard to clear them as quickly as possible.”

The airport announced its runways had reopened at 10am, but warned “as a result of the earlier closure, some departures and arrivals may still experience delays”.

“The safety of our passengers remains our top priority. Thank you for your understanding and patience,” it added.

The A30 in Cornwall was closed westbound between the A3047 junctions Avers and Tolvaddon on Thursday morning following a multiple vehicle collision, according to National Highways, after an amber warning for snow and ice was in place yesterday.

It said at 8.45am that emergency services were at the scene while traffic built on the roads.

Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways had earlier warned of roads closing and motorists being stationary for “long periods of time” in a joint statement.

Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.

All of the warnings in place across the country are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.

A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for the following regions from 4pm on Thursday to 10am on Friday:

East Midlands
North West England
Northern Ireland
Wales
West Midlands

Get the forecast for your area

Other yellow warnings which covered much of the country on Thursday morning have now expired.

They included a warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England until 11am, an ice warning for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am and a fog warning for Northern Ireland until 9am.

Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.

As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

UK

Stuart Hogg: Former Scotland rugby captain given community payback and non-harassment orders for domestic abuse

Published

2 hours ago

January 9, 2025

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Stuart Hogg: Former Scotland rugby captain given community payback and non-harassment orders for domestic abuse

Former Scotland rugby captain Stuart Hogg has been handed a community payback order and a non-harassment order for abusing his estranged wife over the course of five years.

Hogg, 32, last year pleaded guilty to a single charge of domestic abuse of his ex-partner, Gillian Hogg, between 2019 and 2024.

The sportsman admitted shouting and swearing, tracking her movements and sending her messages which were alarming and distressing in nature.

At Selkirk Sheriff Court on Thursday, he was given a community payback order with one year of supervision and a five-year non-harassment order.

Sheriff Peter Paterson warned Hogg the sentence was an “alternative to custody”.

A court heard how he berated Mrs Hogg for “not being fun” after going on drinking binges with his colleagues, and once sent more than 200 text messages to her in the space of a few hours which caused her to suffer a panic attack.

Hogg had been due to stand trial at Selkirk Sheriff Court last November, but pleaded guilty to the abuse which was said to have taken place at various locations including Hawick in the Scottish Borders and Bearsden in East Dunbartonshire.

At Jedburgh Sheriff Court in December, he was initially handed the five-year non-harassment order and fined £600 for breaching bail conditions by repeatedly contacting Mrs Hogg last June.

The former Glasgow Warriors and Exeter Chiefs, who plays for French club Montpellier, now lives abroad and is said to be in the process of getting a divorce.

Prosecutor Drew Long said the couple moved to Exeter in 2019 with their three young children, who were all under three, but Hogg’s behaviour “deteriorated” as he went out partying.

Mr Long said Hogg would “shout and swear and accuse Mrs Hogg of not being fun” for not joining in drinking, and that her family “noticed a change in her”.

In 2022, Mrs Hogg went on a night out and was bombarded with text messages from the rugby player which “caught the attention of the people she was with”, the prosecutor said.

The following year, the couple moved to Hawick in the Borders, but Hogg used an app to track his wife and “questioned her whereabouts” while she was dropping the children off.

In 2023, she decided to leave the sportsman and sought advice from a domestic abuse service.

Mr Long said in September of that year, Hogg “sent in excess of 200 texts in a few hours despite being asked to leave her alone”, which led to Mrs Hogg having a panic attack.

On 21 February 2024, police were called due to Hogg “shouting and swearing”.

He was taken into custody and thereafter placed on a bail order stipulating not to contact Mrs Hogg or to enter the family home.

The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) said “no one should have to live in fear of a partner or former partner”.

Lynne Barrie, procurator fiscal for Lothian and Borders, added: “Stuart Hogg has now been convicted and held accountable for subjecting his estranged wife to years of domestic abuse.”

Hogg made his Scotland debut in 2012 and went on to make 100 appearances for his country.

He also made two appearances for the British and Irish Lions and was made an MBE for services to the sport in last year’s New Year Honours list.

Following his guilty plea, Mrs Hogg thanked all those who had shown support.

She praised her family and friends, and also singled out those who had given her “a hi, a smile, a hug or even just a look to show they care”.

Mrs Hogg said she had thought “long and hard” about posting on Facebook, but added: “Now, it’s time to start my next chapter.

“To move on and to keep showing my kids every day that strength comes from unconditional love and support around you, and even when it hurts, love wins.”

Following the court case, Scottish Women’s Aid said coercive control – including stalking and micromanaging how women mother, where they go, what they wear and what they’re allowed to say – can be “more traumatic than a physical assault”.

Dr Marsha Scott, chief executive of the charity, added: “The sentence in this case, like so many handed down in Scotland, hardly meets the test of being proportionate when compared to the harm this man has caused.”

UK

Liz Truss sends cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over claims she ‘crashed the economy’

Published

2 hours ago

January 9, 2025

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Liz Truss sends cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over claims she 'crashed the economy'

Liz Truss’ lawyers have sent a cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer over his claims she “crashed the economy”.

The letter says Sir Keir’s continued claim the former Conservative prime minister crashed the economy with the September 2022 mini budget is defamatory and will “likely continue to cause serious harm to her reputation”.

It focuses on the Labour leader’s claims made in June last year during the general election campaign, and says accusations she crashed the economy were made with the purpose of damaging public opinion of Ms Truss as she stood as a parliamentary candidate.

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Ms Truss, who stepped down as prime minister in under two months in charge, lost the South West Norfolk seat she had held since 2010 to Labour’s Terry Jermy in last year’s election.

Sir Keir’s spokesman said the prime minister has no plans to “moderate his language” based on the letter.

He also questioned whether Ms Truss will be writing to the “millions of people up and down the country” who shared Sir Keir’s view.

The letter also says it is “false” to claim the mini budget crashed the economy and provides details of a definition of “crash of the economy” by Dr Andrew Lilico, an expert from right-wing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and managing director of economic consultancy Europe Economics.

Market movement following the mini budget did not constitute a “crash”, the letter says, and accuses Sir Keir of displaying an “ignorance of basic economics” by doing so.

Following the mini budget, which included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, the UK government’s long-term borrowing costs rose sharply by 0.3 percentage points over a day.

The pound then fell to record lows against the dollar, and there was another sharp rise in the cost of long-term government borrowing by 0.5 percentage points after then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng hinted there would be further tax cuts.

This led to rising mortgage rates, with hundreds of products withdrawn, and an impact on UK pension funds.

Ms Truss’ lawyers blamed the interest rate changes on the Bank of England, “in particular by its poor handling of the liability-driven investment bonds (LDI) crisis, and its regulatory failures”.

It points out the Bank of England is independent of government and says: “Thus the relevant rate changes were not ’caused’ by our client.

“These facts were clear as early as May 2024, if not before.”

The letter argues there was “no rise in unemployment…no sustained loss of wealth”, and no “enduring economic impacts”.

It says Ms Truss and the mini budget did not play “a significant causal role in the financial market volatility of September/October 2022” and said almost everything, in fiscal terms, had been announced before the mini budget.

The letter requests Sir Keir “immediately cease and desist” from repeating she crashed the economy on an “amicable basis”.

“This request is made in the context of the basic levels of civility which is due between senior politicians, and we trust that you will respond accordingly,” the letter says.