Energy crisis: How worried should we be about the lights going out?

Published

3 years ago

October 6, 2022

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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

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‘Sticking to Labour manifesto pledge costs millions of workers’, Resolution Foundation says

Published

2 hours ago

November 27, 2025

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'Sticking to Labour manifesto pledge costs millions of workers', Resolution Foundation says

Sticking to Labour’s manifesto pledge and freezing income tax thresholds rather than raising income tax has hurt low- and middle-income earners, an influential thinktank has said.

Millions of these workers “would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen”, according to the Resolution Foundation’s chief executive, Ruth Curtice.

“Ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners”, she said.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in her budget speech that the point at which people start paying higher rates of tax has been held. It means earners are set to be dragged into higher tax bands as they get pay rises.

The chancellor felt unable to raise income tax as the Labour Party pledged not to raise taxes on working people in its election manifesto.

But many are saying that pledge was broken regardless, as the tax burden has increased by £26bn in this budget.

When asked by Sky News whether Ms Reeves would accept she broke the manifesto pledge, she said:

“I do recognise that yesterday I have asked working people to contribute a bit more by freezing those thresholds for a further three years from 2028.”

“I do recognise that that will mean that working people pay a bit more, but I’ve kept that contribution to an absolute minimum”.

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The Resolution Foundation thinktank, which aims to raise living standards, welcomed measures designed to support people with the cost of living, such as the removal of the two-child benefit cap, which limited the number of children families could claim benefits for.

The announced reduction in energy bills through the removal of as yet unspecified levies was similarly welcomed.

The chancellor said bills would become £150 cheaper a year, but the foundation said typical energy bills will fall by around £130 annually for the next three years, “though support then fades away”.

More to come

This budget won’t be the last of it, Ms Curtice said, as economic growth forecasts have been downgraded by independent forecasters the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and growth is a “hurdle that remains to be cleared”.

“Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing budgets,” she added.

It comes despite Ms Reeves saying as far back as last year, there would be no more tax increases.

Ultimately, though, the foundation said, “The great drumbeat of doom that preceded the chancellor’s big day turned out to be over the top: the forecasts came in better than many had feared.”

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour – and some now feel betrayed

Published

2 hours ago

November 27, 2025

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour - and some now feel betrayed

Hitchin in Hertfordshire does well in the polls.

On the edge of the Chilterns and 30 minutes from central London by train, it’s Britain’s most expensive market town for first-time buyers. It’s also been voted one of the top 10 best, and top 20 happiest, places to live in the country.

Last summer Labour did well in the polls here too. Hitchin’s 35,000 inhabitants, with above average earnings, levels of employment, and higher education, ejected the Conservatives for the first time in more than 50 years.

Money latest: What the budget means for your money

Having swept into affluent southern constituencies, Rachel Reeves is now asking them to help pay for her plans via a combination of increased taxes on earnings and savings.

While her first budget made business bear the brunt of tax rises, the higher earners of Hitchin, and those aspiring to join them, are unapologetically in the sights of the second.

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Kai Walker, 27, runs Vantage Plumbing & Heating, a growing business employing seven engineers, all earning north of £45,000, with ambition to expand further.

He’s disappointed that the VAT threshold was not reduced – “it makes us 20% less competitive than smaller players” – and does not love the prospect of his fiancee paying per-mile to use her EV.

But it’s the freeze on income tax thresholds that will hit him and his employees hardest, inevitably dragging some into the 40% bracket, and taking more from those already there.

“It seems like the same thing year on end,” he says. “Work harder, pay more tax, the thresholds have been frozen again until 2031, so it’s just a case where we see less of our money. Tax the rich has been a thing for a while or, you know, but I still don’t think that it’s fair.

“I think with a lot of us working class, it’s just a case of dealing with the cost. Obviously, we hope for change and lower taxes and stuff, but ultimately it’s a case of we do what we’re told.”

Reeves’s central pitch is that taxes need to rise to reset the public finances, support the NHS, and fund welfare increases she had promised to cut.

In Hitchin’s Market Square it has been heard, but it is strikingly hard to find people who think this budget was for them.

Jamie and Adele Hughes both work, had their first child three weeks ago, and are unconvinced.

“We’re going to be paying more, while other people are going to be getting more money and they’re not going to be working. I don’t think it’s fair,” says Adele.

Jamie adds: “If you’re from a generation where you’re trying to do well for yourself, trying to do things which were once possible for everybody, which are not possible for everybody now, like buying a house, starting a family like we just have, it’s extremely difficult,” says Jamie.

Liz Felstead, managing director of recruitment company Essential Results, fears the increase in the minimum wage will hit young people’s prospects hard.

“It’s disincentivising employers to hire younger people. If you have a choice between someone with five years experience or someone with none, and it’s only £2,000 difference, you are going to choose the experience.”

After five years, the cost of living crisis has not entirely passed Hitchin by. In the market Kim’s World of Toys sells immaculately reconditioned and repackaged toys at a fraction of the price.

Demand belies Hitchin’s reputation. “The way that it was received was a surprise to us I think, particularly because it’s a predominantly affluent area,” says Kim. “We weren’t sure whether that would work but actually the opposite was true. Some of the affluent people are struggling as well as those on lower incomes.”

Customer Joanne Levy, shopping for grandchildren, urges more compassion for those who will benefit from Reeves’s spending plans: “The elderly, they’re struggling, bless them, the sick, people with young children, they are all struggling, even if they’re working they are struggling.”

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Budget 2025: The town where voters placed trust in Labour – and some now feel betrayed

Published

8 hours ago