Energy crisis: Plan for three-hour power blackouts to prioritise heating in event of gas shortages – as EU agrees to cut electricity use
The country has been put on notice that the chances of gas shortages this winter have risen markedly, prompting a contingency plan to prioritise heating.
National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) warned that planned three-hour power blackouts could be imposed in some areas, in the “unlikely” event supplies of gas fall short of demand.
It revealed the measure in an update on the UK’s state of energy readiness for the cold months ahead but it said that the risk of temporary power cuts could be avoided with help from the public.
The report showed, under a base case scenario, that margins between peak demand and power supply were expected to be sufficient and similar to recent years thanks to secure North Sea gas supplies, imports via Norway and by ship.
It comes as EU countries formally agreed to a voluntary 10% cut in gross electricity consumption and a mandatory reduction of 5% during peak hours – in what have been labelled “extraordinary measures”.
The European Council said: “Member states will identify 10% of their peak hours between 1 December 2022 and 31 March 2023 during which they will reduce the demand.
“Member states will be free to choose the appropriate measures to reduce consumption for both targets in this period.”
The ESO urged households to help manage that balance by signing up to an energy-saving scheme through their supplier, in a bid to help ease the risk of the lights going out.
The “demand flexibility service”, due to start next month, will see bill-payers be paid to save energy during peak hours.
Coal generators, that the operator said would have otherwise closed, will be used to maintain supply. In an effort to generate enough power to supply 600,000 homes the ESO is securing contracts with three generators to keep five coal units open and on standby.
A separate study by National Grid Gas Transmission, which is a separate business to the ESO, saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe – as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine – to impact the UK’s usual ability to attract imports.
It suggested gas needed to power the UK’s electricity grid was expected to rise by nearly 22% – offsetting savings from lower household and business use – largely because of a need for power in France where many nuclear plants are offline.
It saw LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US and Qatar acting as the new primary source of supply flexibility.
Gas accounts for over 40% of UK power generation – more if the wind fails to blow and other plants are offline for maintenance.
The ESO’s report marked a darkening in the prospect for disruption in the months ahead following a comparatively rosy early view report in July.
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Risk of emergency gas shortage
There was a clear sign of a shift in direction earlier this week when it emerged that the energy regulator Ofgem had warned of a “significant risk” of a gas supply emergency.
It blamed the international scramble for supplies because of the war, which has starved continental Europe of its main source of natural gas.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Liz Truss refused to reiterate a promise she made during the Tory leadership election that there will not be blackouts this winter.
Pushed to repeat that promise, she told reporters in Prague: “Well what we’re clear about is we do have a good supply of energy in the UK, we’re in a much better position than many other countries.
“But of course there’s always more we can do.”
A gas supply emergency can be declared when suppliers are unable to safely get gas to homes and businesses.
It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.
The aim would be to keep gas and gas-generated electricity supplies stable for households for as long as possible.
For the electricity market, coal-fired power stations can be brought back online under what is known as a system notice to help fill stopgaps. This has traditionally happened when nuclear plants go offline or the wind fails to blow.
The hope is that these sorts of measures will not be necessary because of the looming demand flexibility service.
It is expected to be implemented at least 12 times, whatever happens, from November to March to ensure a benefit for signatories.
The ESO’s director of corporate affairs, Jake Rigg, said: “If you put your washing machine or other electrical appliances on at night instead of the peak in the early evening, you can get some money back when we all need it.”
Energy bills have rocketed this year but now come under the protection of government caps on wholesale costs, shielding both households and businesses from the worst in the price surge ahead of winter.
It means the taxpayer will foot the bill for wholesale prices above the unit cap level.
The scheme does not cap your bill, which will continue to depend on the amount of energy used.
An Ofgem spokesperson said of the National Grid reports: “We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and we are in a favourable position.
“However, it is incumbent on a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the right contingency measures are in place, which is why we are working with the government, National Grid and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter.”
Some of the biggest US technology companies have pledged billions of pounds of investment to turbocharge Britain’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry, as the two countries announce a landmark technology deal.
Nvidia, Microsoft, Open AI and Google made a flurry of announcements to coincide with President Trump‘s state visit to the UK.
They include plans to build data centres and invest in AI research and engineering.
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Sir Keir Starmer described the agreement, which both leaders will sign over the coming days, as “a generational step change” in Britain’s relationship with the US.
The deal will see both countries cooperate on AI, quantum computing and nuclear energy, with investment in modular reactors revealed earlier this week.
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The prime minister said it was “shaping the futures of millions of people on both sides of the Atlantic, and delivering growth, security and opportunity up and down the country”.
The government said the deal would deliver thousands of jobs, with a new AI Growth Zone in the North East of England earmarked for 5,000 jobs.
The region will host a new data centre developed in partnership with ChatGPT developer OpenAI, the US chip giant Nvidia and the British data centre company Nscale. The UK government will supply energy for the project, which will be based in Blyth.
Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, who has previously drawn attention to Britain’s inadequate levels of digital infrastructure, said: “Today marks a historic chapter in US-United Kingdom technology collaboration.
“We are at the Big Bang of the AI era – and the United Kingdom stands in a Goldilocks position, where world-class talent, research and industry converge.”
Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang. Pic: Reuters
The Blyth data centre is part of Stargate, Open AI’s infrastructure project to build large data centres across the US.
The company has also developed sites in Norway and the UAE. Nvidia, which provides the graphic processing chips (GPUs), expects to generate $20bn (£14.6bn) by the end of this year from “sovereign” deals with national governments over the coming years.
Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, said: “The UK has been a longstanding pioneer of AI, and is now home to world-class researchers, millions of ChatGPT users and a government that quickly recognised the potential of this technology.
“Stargate UK builds on this foundation to help accelerate scientific breakthroughs, improve productivity, and drive economic growth.”
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Microsoft also pledged £22bn, its largest ever investment in the UK, to expand data centres and construct the country’s largest AI supercomputer.
Meanwhile, Google owner Alphabet pledged £5bn to expand its data centres in Hertfordshire and fund its London-based subsidiary DeepMind, which uses AI to power cutting edge scientific research. The company was founded in Britain and acquired by Google in 2014.
Other investments include £1.5bn from AI cloud computing company CoreWeave and £1.4bn from Salesforce.
There are “no discussions around taxpayers’ money” to prop up Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) suppliers, according to the prime minister’s official spokesman, as the carmaker grapples a lengthening production shutdown following last month’s cyber attack.
JLR factories fell silent more than two weeks ago. While it is damaging for the company, it represents a perilous loss of business for the supply chain which has also been forced to send workers home.
Some have already lost their jobs.
Unions and the business and trade committee of MPs were among those to request the possibility of aid to prevent job losses and employers going bust as the disruption drags on.
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What happened?
It was revealed on 1 September that global production at JLR had been stopped following a cyber attack.
IT systems were taken offline by the company under efforts to limit penetration and damage.
The company appeared confident initially that manufacturing could resume but restart dates have been consistently put back.
What damage was done?
Jaguar Land Rover has said very little about the extent of the attack.
But it admitted last week that some data had been accessed. It gave no further details.
Who is to blame?
A criminal investigation is continuing.
A group of English-speaking hackers claimed responsibility for the JLR attack via a Telegram platform called Scattered Lapsus$ Hunters, an amalgamation of the names of hacking groups Scattered Spider, Lapsus$ and ShinyHunters.
Scattered Spider, a loose group of relatively young hackers, were behind the Co-Op, Harrods and M&S attacks earlier in the year.
It is widely believed that M&S paid a sum to regain control of its systems after it was targeted with ransomware though it has refused to confirm if this was the case.
How is this affecting JLR as a business?
The business was highly profitable last year but 2025 has seen new trade war challenges in addition to the cyber attack: File pic: Reuters
JLR typically produces about 1,000 vehicles a day.
Production staff are being paid but kept away from plants at Halewood on Merseyside, Solihull in the West Midlands, and its engine factory in Wolverhampton. It is the same story for workers at sites in Slovakia, China and India.
JLR revealed on Tuesday that production lines would now remain shut until at least 24 September.
David Bailey, professor of business economics at the Birmingham Business School, told the PA news agency: “The value of cars usually made at the sites means that around £1.7bn worth of vehicles will not have been produced, and I’d estimate that would have an initial impact of around £120m on profits.”
JLR achieved a pre-tax profit of £2.5bn for the financial year ending 31 March 2025, so should be able to absorb such a hit.
Sales and service operations continue as normal at its retail partners but the longer the disruption goes on, so do the risks to its inventories and bottom line.
Why does its supply chain need help?
JLR’s supply chain includes everything from components to paint. Pic: Reuters
This is the part of the operation that was always bound to suffer most in the event of a global JLR production shutdown.
No manufacturing means no need for parts.
The company usually depends on a ‘just in time’ supply chain to feed its factories and keep production lines running smoothly.
The Unite union has appealed for a COVID-style furlough scheme to prevent job losses and the risk of affected companies, often small or medium-sized firms, being forced out of business.
JLR’s operations are understood to directly support more than 100,000 jobs in the UK though that sum doubles through indirect roles.
The loss of any major supplier would risk further production delays once JLR’s IT systems are back online.
It is currently understood that the vast majority of directly affected workers remain in their jobs but have either been sent home or are on restricted tasks.
JLR suppliers Evtec, WHS Plastics, SurTec and OPmobility have had to temporarily lay off roughly 6,000 staff while a growing number of other firms are cutting workers, with temporary or contracted workers most likely to be affected.
What has the government said?
In addition to the remarks by the PM’s official spokesman, minister for industry Chris McDonald told Sky News: “We know this is a worrying time for those affected by this incident and our cyber experts are supporting JLR to help them resolve this issue as quickly as possible.
“I met the company today to discuss their plans to resolve this issue and get production started again, and we continue to discuss the impact on the supply chain.”
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