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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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How would planned blackouts work?

Economy live updates

Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

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There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

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How rising costs will affect you

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

Read more on Sky News:
Plan for three-hour power blackouts to prioritise heating in event of gas shortages
Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

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‘What can I do if I don’t have money?’

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

Read more: How much will my bills increase now the energy price cap comes into effect

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

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Justice system ‘frustrating’, Met Police chief says – as he admits London’s ‘shameful’ racism challenge

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Justice system 'frustrating', Met Police chief says - as he admits London's 'shameful' racism challenge

It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.

In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner said that relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.

Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.

“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”

He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.

However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”

Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.

“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.

“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.

“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.

“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”

Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said racism is still an issue in the force
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Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley

The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.

“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”

Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.

“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”

‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’

Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.

“If you are in the middle of a crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.

“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.

“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”

“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.

“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”

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How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief

‘Close to broken’ justice system facing ‘awful’ delays

Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for police officers.

“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.

“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.

“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.

“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.

“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”

Giving an example, the police commissioner went on: “We’ve got Snaresbrook [Crown Court] in London – it’s now got more than 100 cases listed for 2029.”

Sir Mark asked Trevor Phillips to imagine he had been the victim of a crime, saying: “We’ve caught the person, we’ve charged him, ‘great news, Mr Phillips, we’ve got him charged, they’re going to court’.

“And then a few weeks later, I see the trial’s listed for 2029. That doesn’t feel great, does it?”

Asked about the fact that suspects could still be on the streets for years before going to trial, Sir Mark conceded it’s “pretty awful”.

He added: “If it’s someone on bail, who might have stolen your phone or whatever, and they’re going in for a criminal court trial, that could be four years away. And that’s pretty unacceptable, isn’t it?”

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Leveson explains plans to fix justice system

Challenge to reform the Met

The Met chief’s comments come two years after an official report found the force is institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

Baroness Casey was commissioned in 2021 to look into the Met Police after serving police officer Wayne Couzens abducted, raped and murdered Sarah Everard.

She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.

At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.

However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.

A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.

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UK measles cases rising among children – with leading NHS hospital ‘concerned’

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UK measles cases rising among children - with leading NHS hospital 'concerned'

A leading NHS hospital has warned measles is on the rise among children in the UK, after treating 17 cases since June.

Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool said it is “concerned” about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting the highly contagious virus.

It said the cases it has treated since June were for effects and complications of the disease, which, in rare cases, can be fatal if left untreated.

“We are concerned about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting measles. Measles is a highly contagious viral illness which can cause children to be seriously unwell, requiring hospital treatment, and in rare cases, death,” the hospital said in a statement to Sky News.

In a separate open letter to parents and carers in Merseyside earlier this month, Alder Hey, along with the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) and directors of Public Health for Liverpool, Sefton and Knowsley, warned the increase in measles in the region could be down to fewer people getting vaccinated.

The letter read: “We are seeing more cases of measles in our children and young people because fewer people are having the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles and two other viruses called mumps and rubella.

“Children in hospital, who are very poorly for another reason, are at higher risk of catching the virus.”

What are the symptoms of measles?

The first symptoms of measles include:

• A high temperature

• A runny or blocked nose

• Sneezing

• A cough

• Red, sore or watery eyes

Cold-like symptoms are followed a few days later by a rash, which starts on the face and behind the ears, before it spreads.

The spots are usually raised and can join together to form blotchy patches which are not usually itchy.

Some people may get small spots in their mouth too.

What should you do if you think your child has measles?

Ask for an urgent GP appointment or call 111 if you think your child has measles.

If your child has been vaccinated, it is very unlikely they have measles.

You should not go to the doctor without calling ahead, as measles is very infectious.

If your child is diagnosed with measles by a doctor, make sure they avoid close contact with babies and anyone who is pregnant or has a weakened immune system.

The skin of a patient after 3 days of measles infection
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The skin of a patient after three days of measles infection

It comes after a Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) report released earlier this month determined that uptake of vaccines in the UK has stalled over the last decade and is, in many cases, declining.

It said none of the routine childhood vaccinations have met the 95% coverage target since 2021, putting youngsters at risk of measles, meningitis and whooping cough.

The MMR vaccine has been available through the NHS for years. Two doses gives lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella.

File photo of a MMR vaccine
Image:
Two doses of the MMR vaccine give lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella. Pic: iStock

According to the latest NHS data, Liverpool was one of the cities outside London with the lowest uptake of the MMR vaccination in 2023-2024.

By the time children were five years old, 86.5% had been give one dose, decreasing to 73.4% for a second dose.

The RCPCH report put the nationwide decline down to fears over vaccinations, as well as families having trouble booking appointments and a lack of continuous care in the NHS, with many seeing a different GP on each visit.

Read more from Sky News:
Met Police chief on London’s ‘shameful’ racism challenge
‘My voice box was removed after NHS missed cancer’

In the US, measles cases are at their highest in more than three decades.

Cases reached 1,288 on Wednesday this week, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, with 14 states battling active outbreaks.

The largest outbreak started five months ago in communities in West Texas, where vaccination uptake is low. Since then, three people have died – including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico – with dozens more in hospital.

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‘My voice box was removed after NHS missed my throat cancer’

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'My voice box was removed after NHS missed my throat cancer'

Steve Barton is angry, and he has every right to be.

The 68-year-old retired engineer stares at his medical notes that, he says, expose in black and white the moment his life changed forever.

“I have somehow missed… due to my mistake,” a doctor writes in one of the notes, after it became apparent that Mr Barton had not been urgently referred to specialists over what later became an aggressive form of throat cancer.

Steve now has a prosthetic voice box and is one of many British patients fighting medical negligence claims after being misdiagnosed.

NHS officials in Scotland are dealing with thousands of cases annually. Meanwhile, Westminster’s Public Affairs Committee (PAC) recently disclosed England’s Department of Health and Social Care has set aside £58.2bn to settle clinical lawsuits arising before 2024.

Mr Barton, who lives in Alloa near Stirling, repeatedly contacted his doctors after he began struggling with his breathing, speaking and swallowing. His concerns were recorded by the NHS as sinus issues.

As panic grew and his voice became weaker, Mr Barton paid to see a private consultant who revealed the devastating news that a massive tumour had grown on his larynx and required part of his throat to be removed immediately.

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“I am angry, I am upset, I don’t want anyone else to go through this,” Mr Barton told Sky News.

“There were at least four, possibly five, conversations on the phone. He [the doctor] said to me that it sounds like I’ve got reflux.”

‘He was palmed off’

Mr Barton is now unable to work and cannot shower by himself because if water enters the hole in his neck, he could drown.

And a windy day can cause a debilitating coughing fit if a gust catches his prosthetic voice box.

Steve in hospital
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Steve Barton is one of thousands battling medical negligence cases

Asked if he believes this was avoidable, Mr Barton replied: “Absolutely. 100%.”

His wife, Heather, told Sky News: “He hates this. You see him crying. It breaks my heart. It’s been hard emotionally.”

She added: “Everybody knows their own body. He was palmed off and the consequence is a neck dissection. It [life] changed overnight.”

Legal battle over compensation

The Barton family have been locked in a legal battle over their ordeal with the Medical and Dental Defence Union Scotland (MDDUS) – a body which indemnifies GPs.

It has not admitted formal liability in this case but has agreed to settle financial compensation to Mr Barton.

Steve

Izabela Wosiak, a solicitor from Irwin Mitchell who represents the Bartons, said: “Cases like Steve’s are complex and usually quite difficult, but solicitors have accepted there was no defence to this case.

“They have arranged to make an interim payment; however we are still in the process of negotiating final settlement.”

A MDDUS spokeswoman refused to comment while talks are being finalised.

What is the scale of medical negligence in Britain?

The NHS in Scotland is under the devolved control of the Scottish government.

Figures suggest there were almost 14,000 clinical negligence claims and incidents in 2023/24, an increase on the previous year.

It comes as PAC warned that the total liabilities in England’s health service has hit £58.2bn.

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Two dead after care home crash
More hosepipe bans are on the way

PAC chair Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP told Sky News: “I extend my sympathies to Steve and his family. Unfortunately, he is not alone.

“Some are really heart-wrenching tales. Every single claim somebody is involved, someone has been in some way injured, so this is a terrible thing.

“We are going to be working on how we can make the whole system less litigious and get compensation paid out quickly because if the state does harm to somebody, the least they could do is to compensate them as quickly as possible.”

Paul Whiteing, the chief executive of patient safety charity Action Against Medical Accidents, told Sky News: “The NHS itself last year [in England] paid out just over £5bn in compensational set aside money for compensation that it would need to pay out.

“It’s a huge cost and of course that doesn’t speak to the cost to every individual, every family, every person who is impacted by the consequences of some form of medical accident and the trauma that can go with that.”

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