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The 2022 MLB postseason begins on Friday with the start of a new expanded 12-team playoff field and a best-of-3 series. The new format has led to some intriguing matchups over the weekend including a stacked San Diego Padres team with Juan Soto against the 101-win New York Mets and the ageless wonder Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals facing Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies.

More games means more opportunities to bet. Our experts tackle some of the most important questions surrounding how bettors should approach all of the AL and NL Wild Card games this week.

Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook


The Mets, Blue Jays, Guardians and Cardinals are all hosting the best-of-3-series this weekend and all are favored to advance. Which team are you most confident in to advance to the LDS?

Karabell: The Guardians were four games over .500 one month ago. Then they won 21 of 25 games to lock up the Central. Starters Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are thriving and the Rays are really struggling to score runs lately. I think the Guardians, with their deep, speedy lineup and strong defense are a serious threat to the Yankees in the next round, too.

Doug Kezirian: Based on the series odds, the Mets are the most likely to advance. A series price of -170 represents a 63% likelihood. However, the question was about my outlook. In a vacuum, yes, the Mets would be my pick. However, I do worry about their psyche, given the late-season fade, and even the recent performances of their aces, although the Padres are also an unreliable unit. I honestly think all these series are evenly matched and do not feel confident with any pick. Yes, it’s a cop-out.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: The Mets, because it’s tough envisioning a Padres team that was league-average in run scoring over the past month upsetting a team that’ll probably be getting two-thirds of its innings from Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Edwin Diaz.

On the flip side, where do you see an upset happening?

Eric Karabell: The Phillies certainly didn’t thrive in September but they have the rotation advantage on the Cardinals with top-10 starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the first two games. Perhaps MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado don’t care, but the Cardinals aren’t great against right-handed pitching. If the Philadelphia bullpen can hold leads, they can advance.

Tyler Fulghum: As a St. Louis native who has thoroughly enjoyed the wild nostalgia this season has provided, I begrudgingly agree with Karabell. The Cardinals kryptonite this season has been high-octane, high-quality RHP. And the Phillies have a couple of really good ones in Wheeler and Nola. Plus, the Cards offense really struggled down the stretch (save for Albert Pujols), and while they have depth on the mound from the 1st inning to the 9th inning, they don’t really have any overpowering pitchers to dominate games (outside of closer Ryan Helsley).

Todd Zola: Pitching can go a long way in a three-game series and the Mariners have a top-three capable of matching up with anyone. Winning two in the Rogers Centre won’t be easy, but Seattle has the starters and bullpen to keep Toronto’s batters in check and with Julio Rodriguez back, they have an opportunistic offense ready to pull the upset.

Cockcroft: The Phillies, and maybe that’s just my memory of so many good-performing, recent Cardinals teams that qualified for October disappointing in early playoff series, but history backs it up, as the Cardinals have lost nine of 13 playoff games and 3-of-4 series in the previous three postseasons. Additionally, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez represent a superior rotation to whatever the Cardinals roll out there, and the games will be played in the better park for pitching between these teams’ homes. I’ll note that I went with chalk picks in this series with my MLB predictions, but the Phillies were the one upset I was sorely tempted to pick.

The Mets are the biggest favorite at -170 vs the Padres. They blew a 10.5-game division lead that would have avoided this round. Do you see the blown lead impacting this series?

Fulghum: I do not think the blow lead in the division will affect the Mets series with San Diego. Having Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to pitch these games matters way more to me. It’s not like New York played poorly down the stretch – they won 101 games – it’s just that the Braves went absolutely nuclear down the stretch and chased them down. San Diego, on the other hand, has been a relative disappointment this season after all the Spring Training hype and the midseason addition of Juan Soto.

Cockcroft: There’s too much evidence that says regular-season “momentum” doesn’t matter for me to buy the blown-lead argument. The Mets still have their rotation aligned in their favor, and they have home-field advantage with their opponent traveling cross-country. If there’s anything from their blowing the division race that could influence this series negatively, it’s this silly concept of saving deGrom for a prospective elimination game (Game 2 or 3) rather than making the smart move of simply pitching him in Game 2. Had the Mets taken the division, there wouldn’t have even been this distracting debate.

Which of the eight teams playing in this round do you think has the best chance to win the LCS and is worth a futures play?

Karabell: The Guardians seem like the obvious pick to me against a Yankees team dependent on one slugging hitter and lacking rotation depth and clarified bullpen roles. Maybe they can rely on Luis Severino and Gleyber Torres. Maybe Clay Holmes and DJ LeMahieu are healthy. Seems like a bunch of maybes. The Guardians are solid.

Zola: 100% agree with Eric, but deciding between the Phillies and Mariners for the next best bet. Both have the pitching to pull it off. Seattle has the better defense and bullpen, which is huge in a short series, so I’ll go with the Mariners to upset Houston, a team who hasn’t played a meaningful game in what seems like months, and will have sat for six days between games.

Cockcroft: I’m amazed that the Guardians have as long odds as the Phillies! They’ve got a solid rotational top three, an elite defense (plus-77 Defensive Runs Saved!) and an above-average scoring offense that is by far the most contact-oriented in baseball. Maybe, just maybe, this throwback-style team has what it takes to topple the Yankees, then the pitching-rich Astros. Ultimately, I see tons of value in the Guardians for +3500, so that’s how I’ll pick here.

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Dingler HR helps Tigers ‘flip’ script vs. Guardians

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Dingler HR helps Tigers 'flip' script vs. Guardians

CLEVELAND — For two games and five innings, the Detroit Tigers’ offense was constantly knocking but when it mattered most, no one seemed to answer. Finally, Dillon Dingler opened the door to a clinching win.

Dingler’s sixth-inning homer off Cleveland lefty Erik Sabrowski broke a 1-1 deadlock, igniting a late Tigers rally that put the Tigers into the ALDS with a 6-3 win at Progressive Field on Thursday.

The victory not only gave the Tigers a 2-1 AL wild-card series win over the rival Guardians , it avenged last year’s loss to Cleveland in the ALDS.

“We were able to flip it right there, and we had a huge (seventh) inning, able to score some runs and be in the driver’s seat a little bit,” said Dingler, a northeast Ohio native playing in a ballpark he visited as a youth. “It was a big one.”

Before Dingler’s homer, the Tigers had managed just four runs in the series — through two games and five innings — and were a maddening 3-for-28 with runners in scoring position, putting their season in peril despite outplaying Cleveland for the most part. Two of the runs they scored were unearned.

Enter Dingler, a second-year catcher playing in his first postseason. He had started his playoff career 0-for-9 at the plate until he connected against Sabrowski, sending a changeup up in the zone into the seats in left-field, putting Detroit ahead.

“I was scratching and crawling a little bit,” Dingler said. “I was able to get a pitch to hit and do a little damage. Momentum, I feel like the momentum in the series was the biggest thing.”

And how. The aftermath of Dingler’s homer had the aspect of a boiler’s release valve being turned on, allowing bursts of steam to escape into the air.

In the seventh, with the Guardians rolling out a parade of relievers from one of baseball’s best bullpens, the Tigers finally started spinning the merry-go-round, racking up one clutch hit after another.

The rally started when Parker Meadows beat out what was meant to be a sacrifice bunt after Javier Baez led off with a double. Gleyber Torres was retired on a comebacker to a pirouetting Hunter Gaddis, then Kerry Carpenter was intentionally walked, his fourth time reaching base in the game, to load the bases.

This was exactly the kind of the spot the Tigers had faced, and failed, throughout the series. Not this time.

Wenceel Perez, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene followed with RBI singles, plating four runs in all, and giving the Tigers a commanding lead. Up to that point, the trio had gone 1-for-13 combined with runners in scoring position during the series.

That’s what momentum looks like.

“I don’t know why in baseball it seems like one good thing happens and then two, three, four, five at-bats in a row were exceptional,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “We wanted to get even more greedy and do more, but it was nice to separate and breathe a little bit, knowing they weren’t going to give in.”

The loss brought a sudden halt to Cleveland’s building Cinderella story, one that saw them overcome a 15 1/2-game deficit to Detroit to win the AL Central, then force Thursday’s Game 3 after dropping the series opener. While coming back from the brink again and again, the Guardians forged an identity of a never-say-die team. As glorious as the run may have been, losing to the Tigers doesn’t hurt any less.

“There’s no ending of the season,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “It doesn’t end gradually, it just halts. We’ve been with each other every day for eight months. More time with each other than our family. Working together, laughing together, crying together, yelling together, you name it. Now it stops, and I had so much fun with this group.”

With the series win, the Tigers are building a budding comeback story of their own. For much of the season, Detroit was poised to land the AL’s top overall seed but a second-half slump capped by a 7-17 September landed them in Cleveland, as the road team in a wild-card series.

Now the Tigers are on their way to play the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS, beginning Tuesday, and if you had any doubts about it entering the wild-card round, you can now safely assume that the Tigers have turned the page on their lackluster finish.

“It only gets better from here,” Hinch said. “And I’m proud of our group for continuing to learn and grow and mature and fight off some of the negative thoughts that come along the way when people doubt you or you start struggling a little bit. You’ve got to stay in there.”

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Week 6 preview: Vanderbilt-Alabama, a Sunshine State showdown and more

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Week 6 preview: Vanderbilt-Alabama, a Sunshine State showdown and more

Last weekend delivered an action-packed, wire-to-wire college football slate. In Week 6, the sport’s collective attention is centered on a pair of rather distinct but equally intriguing ranked matchups: AlabamaVanderbilt and Florida StateMiami.

It has been nearly 365 days since the Commodores downed then-No. 1 Alabama in a stunning upset last October. No. 16 Vanderbilt, still led by quarterback Diego Pavia, appears to be even more formidable this fall as coach Clark Lea leads the Commodores to Bryant-Denny Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) this weekend. But they visit Alabama to face a Crimson Tide team led by a surging quarterback in Ty Simpson and a team that has only improved since the program’s Week 1 defeat at Florida State.

No. 18 Florida State hosts No. 3 Miami after suffering its first loss in a back-and-forth, overtime thriller at Virginia in Week 5. Florida State and a shaky Seminoles defensive front will run into an even stiffer test at the line of scrimmage Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) against a Hurricanes rushing attack led by Mark Fletcher Jr. with ACC title race and postseason implications hanging over this early fall meeting of in-state conference rivals.

With a pair premier matchups ahead Saturday, our college football experts broke the matchups between Alabama-Vanderbilt and Florida State-Miami, reveal five freshman newcomers who have impressed in the first month of the 2025 season and recap the best quotes of Week 6. — Eli Lederman

Jump to:
In-state showdown | Vanderbilt-Alabama
Five freshman to know
Quotes of the week

What do Miami and Florida State need to focus on to win?

Miami: Given what Virginia did to Florida State on the ground last week in a thrilling 46-38 double-overtime win, Miami should focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and dominating on the ground. Good thing for the Hurricanes, they have plenty of experience doing that this season. Take their last game against Florida, for example. In the second half, they wore down the Gators up front and took control by continuing to run the ball. Miami rushed for 184 yards as Mark Fletcher Jr. went over 100 yards rushing for the second straight game. Last year against Florida State, Fletcher rushed for 71 yards and scored a touchdown, only days after his father, Mark Fletcher Sr., died unexpectedly.

Fletcher said this week he plays with his dad in mind every week, so this week is no different. But his play has sparked the Miami run game, as he has become the featured back after Jordan Lyle was injured in the opener. CharMar Brown has emerged to form a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield.

“Mark is hard to tackle,” offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said. “He’s very big, very strong, very physical, and he runs with passion. He’s a great example for that room, because they’re all running that way right now, which is good to see.”

Miami expects Lyle to be ready to go against Florida State. If Lyle is back to 100%, his speed and shiftiness will provide a nice counter to the power with which Fletcher has been running this season. Miami has the type of balance that coach Mario Cristobal has wanted since his arrival with the Hurricanes. He has preached building his team from the inside out, and against Florida State, the Hurricanes will have a chance to show that again. — Andrea Adelson

Florida State: Florida State’s defensive front figured to be among the best in the ACC, led by behemoth tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. and Nebraska transfer James Williams. The unit certainly looked the part in the Seminoles’ Week 1 win over Alabama, completely stifling the Tide’s ground game to the tune of only 87 yards on 29 carries.

But was all of that a mirage?

Alabama’s rushing attack hasn’t improved by leaps and bounds in the weeks since, and last week’s FSU loss to Virginia can be traced back, in many ways, to a failure to stifle the Cavaliers’ ground game.

“They made plays throughout, and they were able to do a good job in the run game against us,” coach Mike Norvell said after his team coughed up 211 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. “Virginia did a good job of staying multiple in what they did with a lot of different run schemes. They’re a good offense. We have to do better. They were able to create some seams. There were times when we weren’t all on the same page from where we needed to be, and they exposed that.”

Miami’s ground game can be every bit as dynamic but unlike the Hoos, who were down several of their top O-linemen — seven of their top 10 were injured or out for the game — the Hurricanes feature arguably the best offensive line in the country.

Still, for all of FSU’s struggles in containing Virginia, the Seminoles actually ran for more yardage than the Cavaliers. So stopping Miami is a necessity, but the Canes will be faced with a similar task. The team that slows the ground attack better is likely to be the one on the winning side Saturday. — David Hale


What do Vanderbilt and Alabama need to capitalize on?

play

1:42

Vandy’s Clark Lea looks to replicate last year’s success vs. Bama

Lea looks to make the game about the No. 16 Commodores, focusing on eliminating the crowd as he highlights the No. 10 Crimson Tide’s strengths they need to minimalize.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores aren’t going to surprise anyone this season, especially the Crimson Tide. Last year, Vanderbilt beat Alabama for the first time in 40 years with a 40-35 upset of the No. 1 Tide in Nashville.

If the Commodores are going to do it again, they might want to follow the same recipe: convert third downs, control the clock and keep Alabama’s offense off the field. Vanderbilt converted 12 of 18 third-down plays and had the ball for more than 42 minutes in 2024. The Commodores rank No. 2 in the SEC with 223.4 rushing yards per game, and they’ve got three good options to carry the ball in quarterback Diego Pavia and running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young.

Alabama had problems stopping the run in last week’s 24-21 win at Georgia. The Bulldogs averaged 6.9 yards per carry and piled up 227 yards on the ground. But the Crimson Tide defense did a good job of stopping Georgia’s offense when it mattered; the Bulldogs were just 2-for-8 on third down and 0-for-1 on fourth. — Mark Schlabach

Alabama: Aside from getting Kadyn Proctor more involved in the passing game? His catch and bulldozing run against Georgia will certainly make an all-time college football highlight reel, but that play is an example of what is working well now for Alabama.

Over the past three games, the Crimson Tide have been able to keep teams off balance with their offensive play selection — particularly in the passing game. Ty Simpson has grown more comfortable as the season has progressed, and is equally adept at finding his receivers on crossing routes as he is launching deep balls to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.

Though Alabama could use more consistency in its run game, the way the Crimson Tide are playing on third down, and the way Simpson is converting those third downs with good decision-making, is a big step forward from Week 1 against Florida State. Vanderbilt, it should be noted, has given up a conference-high nine touchdowns through the air. So, in short, keep throwing the ball. — Adelson


Five freshman who impressed in the first month of the season

Malik Washington, QB, Maryland Terrapins

The 6-foot-5, 231-pound quarterback has thrown for 1,038 yards across a 4-0 start, trailing only Jayden Daniels (Arizona State) for the second-most passing yards by a freshman through four games since 2019. Washington enters Week 6 level with Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele for the FBS freshmen passer touchdown lead (eight), and ESPN’s No. 3 dual-threat passer in the 2025 class is also taking good care of the football (two turnovers). Washington accounted for three touchdowns in his Big Ten debut at Wisconsin on Sept. 20, powering the Terps to their first Big Ten road win since Nov. 2023. With its talented freshman under center, Maryland has already matched its win total from a year ago and has a chance to go 5-0 for only the 10th time in program history when the Terps host Washington on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN).

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, California Golden Bears

A late-riser last fall who bounced in, then out and back into the Bears’ 2025 class after signing with Oregon, Sagapolutele has delivered from the jump this fall. He leads freshmen passers with 1,242 passing yards and ranks second among FBS freshmen in completion percentage (59.5%). The left-handed Sagapolutele showed off his arm strength in early-season wins over Oregon State and Minnesota, then flashed maturity and late-game poise at Boston College in Week 5 when he led a nine-play, 88-yard, fourth-quarter scoring drive to complete a comeback win that improved Cal to 4-1. Sagapolutele’s four turnovers are a problem so far, but only five games into his college career, he stands among the sport’s most exciting quarterback talents and has already turned the Bears back into late-night appointment viewing.

Malachi Toney, WR, Miami Hurricanes

After reclassifying from the 2026 cycle, Toney arrived an under-the-radar, three-star recruit in Miami’s 2025 class. But there has been nothing understated about his emergence with the Hurricanes this fall. Through four games, Toney led FBS freshmen with 22 receptions and 268 receiving yards. The speedy, 5-foot-11 receiver announced himself with six catches for 82 yards — headlined by a 28-yard touchdown grab — in the Hurricanes’ Week 1 win over Notre Dame, and Toney enters Week 6 as quarterback Carson Beck‘s most targeted downfield option (28) so far. His next opportunity comes Saturday when Miami hits the road to visit Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Sidney Stewart, DE, Maryland Terrapins

Two Terps on one list? Indeed. Stewart, a three-star recruit from Joppa, Maryland, has been the most productive freshman pass rusher in the country over the first month of the season. His four sacks through four games lead first-year defenders and leave Stewart tied for fifth nationally. Per ESPN Research, Stewart has created 11 pressures so far; for context, Maryland teammate Zahir Mathis and Syracuse’s Antoine Deslauriers trail behind him in second among freshman defenders in the category with five pressures each. Stewart and an aggressive Terps defensive line could be in line for another productive Saturday in Week 6 facing a Washington offensive line that has given up 12 sacks in 2025, 21st-most nationally.

Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon Ducks

ESPN’s No. 1 wide receiver in the 2025 class, Moore has been an immediate factor in the Ducks’ passing game and early favorite for Oregon quarterback Dante Moore this fall. No FBS freshman pass catcher has been thrown to more often (29 targets) than the 5-foot-11, 195-pounder from Duncanville, Texas, and he enters Week 6 pacing all first-year skill players with 296 receiving yards. Moore’s most impressive performance was his most recent one, when he led the Ducks in catches (seven) and yards (89) in Oregon’s 30-24 overtime win over Penn State in Week 5. A contributor from day one in 2025, Moore already looks like a difference-maker on a potential national-title contender, and his role in the Ducks’ downfield attack should only grow as the season progresses. — Lederman


Quotes of the Week

“It’s just an absolute coaching failure. I don’t know another way to say it. And I’m not pointing the finger, I’m pointing the thumb. It starts with me, because I hired everybody, and I empower everybody and equip everybody.” — Dabo Swinney on Clemson 1-3 start

“That’s not indicative of who we are. Our student body, our kids, are phenomenal. So don’t indict us just based on a group of young kids that probably was intoxicated and high simultaneously. Maybe I shouldn’t have said that as well, but the truth is going to make you free. But BYU, we love you. We appreciate you and we support you.” — Deion Sanders on Colorado’s fans disparaging BYU.

“The No. 1 thing is, you have to get used to change. You know, your whole life there’s going to be change. So how we handle that, our attitude on how we handle that, will determine how quickly we improve.” — Bobby Petrino, on reorienting Arkansas after taking over as interim head coach.

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

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MLB wild-card series: Who will stay alive in win-or-go-home Game 3s?

It’s win-or-go-home Thursday in the MLB wild-card round!

After losing their series openers, the Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all rebounded with Game 2 wins on Wednesday — setting up a dramatic day with three winner-take-all Game 3s. It’s only the second time in baseball history to host three winner-takes-all playoff games in one day.

Who has the edge with division series berths on the line? We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, sights and sounds from the ballparks and postgame takeaways as each matchup ends.

Key links: Megapreview | Passan’s take | Bracket | Schedule

Jump to a matchup:
DET-CLE | SD-CHC | BOS-NYY

3 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi

One thing that will decide Game 3: Perhaps it’s a wide brush, but Detroit’s ability to get the ball in play and convert scoring opportunities into actual runs — or not — is likely to decide Thursday’s game. The Tigers have managed to get quality at-bats early in innings and generate plenty of traffic on the bags, but they’ve been completely unable to turn those scoring chances into runs. Their 15 runners left on base in Game 2 was a record for a franchise whose postseason history dates back to 1907. Over three potential elimination games going back to last year’s ALDS matchup, the Tigers are a combined 3-for-38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. That must change or Detroit will be done. — Bradford Doolittle

Lineups

Tigers

TBD

Guardians

TBD


5 p.m. ET on ABC

Game 3 starters: Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon

One thing that will decide Game 3: Look, this is going to be a battle of the bullpens. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are both going to be on a very quick hook, even if they’re pitching well. But the difference might be which of those starters can get 14 or 15 outs instead of 10 or 11, especially for the Padres given that Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller both pitched in Games 1 and 2 and might have limited availability.

Darvish had a reputation early in his career as someone who couldn’t handle the pressure of a big game, but he has turned that around and has a 2.56 ERA in his six postseason starts with the Padres. Taillon, meanwhile, was terrific down the stretch with the Cubs, with a 1.57 ERA in six starts after coming off the IL in August. This looks like another low-scoring game in which the team that hits a home run will have the edge. — Schoenfield

Lineups

Padres

TBD

Cubs

TBD


8 p.m. ET on ESPN

Game 3 starters: Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler

One thing that will decide Game 3: Whether Connelly Early can give the Red Sox some length. Alex Cora’s aggressive decision to pull the plug on Brayan Bello’s start after just 28 pitches in Game 2 led to him using six Red Sox relievers. Garrett Whitlock, Boston’s best reliever not named Aroldis Chapman, threw 48 pitches. Chapman didn’t enter the game but warmed up for the possibility. Left-hander Kyle Harrison, a starter during the regular season, and right-hander Greg Weissert were the only pitchers in Boston’s bullpen not used in the first two games. Early doesn’t need to last seven innings. Harrison, who hasn’t pitched since last Friday, could cover multiple innings. But a quick departure would make the night very difficult for the Red Sox’s bullpen against a potent Yankees lineup. — Jorge Castillo

Lineups

Red Sox

TBD

Yankees

TBD

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