More games means more opportunities to bet. Our experts tackle some of the most important questions surrounding how bettors should approach all of the AL and NL Wild Card games this week.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
The Mets, Blue Jays, Guardians and Cardinals are all hosting the best-of-3-series this weekend and all are favored to advance. Which team are you most confident in to advance to the LDS?
Karabell: The Guardians were four games over .500 one month ago. Then they won 21 of 25 games to lock up the Central. Starters Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are thriving and the Rays are really struggling to score runs lately. I think the Guardians, with their deep, speedy lineup and strong defense are a serious threat to the Yankees in the next round, too.
Doug Kezirian: Based on the series odds, the Mets are the most likely to advance. A series price of -170 represents a 63% likelihood. However, the question was about my outlook. In a vacuum, yes, the Mets would be my pick. However, I do worry about their psyche, given the late-season fade, and even the recent performances of their aces, although the Padres are also an unreliable unit. I honestly think all these series are evenly matched and do not feel confident with any pick. Yes, it’s a cop-out.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: The Mets, because it’s tough envisioning a Padres team that was league-average in run scoring over the past month upsetting a team that’ll probably be getting two-thirds of its innings from Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Edwin Diaz.
On the flip side, where do you see an upset happening?
Eric Karabell: The Phillies certainly didn’t thrive in September but they have the rotation advantage on the Cardinals with top-10 starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the first two games. Perhaps MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado don’t care, but the Cardinals aren’t great against right-handed pitching. If the Philadelphia bullpen can hold leads, they can advance.
Tyler Fulghum: As a St. Louis native who has thoroughly enjoyed the wild nostalgia this season has provided, I begrudgingly agree with Karabell. The Cardinals kryptonite this season has been high-octane, high-quality RHP. And the Phillies have a couple of really good ones in Wheeler and Nola. Plus, the Cards offense really struggled down the stretch (save for Albert Pujols), and while they have depth on the mound from the 1st inning to the 9th inning, they don’t really have any overpowering pitchers to dominate games (outside of closer Ryan Helsley).
Todd Zola: Pitching can go a long way in a three-game series and the Mariners have a top-three capable of matching up with anyone. Winning two in the Rogers Centre won’t be easy, but Seattle has the starters and bullpen to keep Toronto’s batters in check and with Julio Rodriguez back, they have an opportunistic offense ready to pull the upset.
Cockcroft: The Phillies, and maybe that’s just my memory of so many good-performing, recent Cardinals teams that qualified for October disappointing in early playoff series, but history backs it up, as the Cardinals have lost nine of 13 playoff games and 3-of-4 series in the previous three postseasons. Additionally, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez represent a superior rotation to whatever the Cardinals roll out there, and the games will be played in the better park for pitching between these teams’ homes. I’ll note that I went with chalk picks in this series with my MLB predictions, but the Phillies were the one upset I was sorely tempted to pick.
The Mets are the biggest favorite at -170 vs the Padres. They blew a 10.5-game division lead that would have avoided this round. Do you see the blown lead impacting this series?
Fulghum: I do not think the blow lead in the division will affect the Mets series with San Diego. Having Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to pitch these games matters way more to me. It’s not like New York played poorly down the stretch – they won 101 games – it’s just that the Braves went absolutely nuclear down the stretch and chased them down. San Diego, on the other hand, has been a relative disappointment this season after all the Spring Training hype and the midseason addition of Juan Soto.
Cockcroft: There’s too much evidence that says regular-season “momentum” doesn’t matter for me to buy the blown-lead argument. The Mets still have their rotation aligned in their favor, and they have home-field advantage with their opponent traveling cross-country. If there’s anything from their blowing the division race that could influence this series negatively, it’s this silly concept of saving deGrom for a prospective elimination game (Game 2 or 3) rather than making the smart move of simply pitching him in Game 2. Had the Mets taken the division, there wouldn’t have even been this distracting debate.
Which of the eight teams playing in this round do you think has the best chance to win the LCS and is worth a futures play?
Karabell: The Guardians seem like the obvious pick to me against a Yankees team dependent on one slugging hitter and lacking rotation depth and clarified bullpen roles. Maybe they can rely on Luis Severino and Gleyber Torres. Maybe Clay Holmes and DJ LeMahieu are healthy. Seems like a bunch of maybes. The Guardians are solid.
Zola: 100% agree with Eric, but deciding between the Phillies and Mariners for the next best bet. Both have the pitching to pull it off. Seattle has the better defense and bullpen, which is huge in a short series, so I’ll go with the Mariners to upset Houston, a team who hasn’t played a meaningful game in what seems like months, and will have sat for six days between games.
Cockcroft: I’m amazed that the Guardians have as long odds as the Phillies! They’ve got a solid rotational top three, an elite defense (plus-77 Defensive Runs Saved!) and an above-average scoring offense that is by far the most contact-oriented in baseball. Maybe, just maybe, this throwback-style team has what it takes to topple the Yankees, then the pitching-rich Astros. Ultimately, I see tons of value in the Guardians for +3500, so that’s how I’ll pick here.
LAS COLINAS, Texas — Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork told leaders of the College Football Playoff on Tuesday that the sport’s calendar needs to change, and it’s a critical component as they consider the playoff’s future format.
Bjork, just months removed from watching his Buckeyes win the national title, attended a portion of the annual CFP spring meetings to provide feedback with the three other athletic directors who participated in semifinals and hosted first-round games: Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte, Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, who is part of the CFP’s management committee along with the 10 FBS commissioners.
Bjork said CFP executive director Rich Clark asked if he had one major point he wanted to make before leaving.
“We’ve had so many disruptions over the last five-plus years that I think the time is now to not be reactive, be proactive,” Bjork told ESPN. “When we had this setting here with the commissioners, our job was to provide feedback on what was it like to go through the 12-team playoff … but it all gets impacted by the calendar. I felt it was important to lay that out with everyone in the room to say, separate from the CFP process, if we don’t fix our calendar as an industry, then we’re going to continue to have unintended consequences.”
Bjork shared with the commissioners the perspective of a school trying to win a national title while classes had begun Jan. 6. Ohio State’s academic advisers traveled with the team to the semifinal and national title game, he said, but some athletes missed class and the school had to apply for waivers around the countable athletically related activities, which limits schools to 20 hours of practice time while classes are in session.
“When you don’t have class, there is no limit to CARA hours,” he said, noting that Texas started classes later. “It created some disadvantages. It all goes back to what’s countable CARA hours, NCAA structure. The portal is the next big conversation after the House case and truly what kind of rules can we set? Will we have the authority around transfer rules to set some parameters?”
Bjork said the transfer portal needs to move to a 10-day period in May for fall sports because if the NCAA House settlement is approved, most of the players are going to be signing revenue share agreements with the schools from July 1 to June 30.
“May makes the most sense” to align player contracts with the portal, Bjork said.
Bjork, who said he’s on the implementation committee for the House settlement, said “if everyone follows the structure, it’s going to be a great structure.”
“And everyone has to follow the rules,” he said, “and agree that this is the structure, which we have to. If we don’t do that, then what good is the settlement?”
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Major League Baseball has played at the “Field of Dreams” movie site. Now baseball is eager to see just how big a crowd will show up for a game at a NASCAR bullring of a track.
And Bristol Motor Speedway can hold a lot of people.
It’s part of commissioner Rob Manfred’s push to take MLB to locations where baseball isn’t played every day live. MLB played a game at the movie site in Iowa in both 2021 and 2022. Alabama, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, too.
Now it’s Tennessee’s turn.
Manfred noted Tuesday after speaking at the CAA World Congress of Sports Presented by Sports Business Journal that the Tennessee Volunteers are the defending college baseball national champions, with Vanderbilt winner of two college titles. Manfred sees lots of alignment between NASCAR and MLB fans.
“Big crowd, big crowd,” Manfred said of what is expected at Bristol on Aug. 2. “We think that it’s an opportunity to have a really large audience for a major league game, and we think the setting in really a legendary speedway is going to be awesome for a baseball game.”
Nobody is ready to put a number on how many will turn out for the MLB Speedway Classic when the Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves. Bristol set a record for a college football game in 2016 and has a capacity of 146,000 for racing.
This game will be played on a field laid over part of the speedway infield and the high-banked track.
Derek Schiller, president and chief executive officer of the Braves, said MLB approached the team a few years ago about this possibility. Schiller said the Braves were adamant about wanting to be a part of this game.
“We know that there’s a uniqueness to it that is unmatched,” Schiller said. “Playing a baseball game at a motor speedway and being part of that was really important also because this is part of where our fan base comes from. So we think many, maybe most of those fans are going to be Atlanta Braves fans.”
Officials announced Tuesday that country superstar Tim McGraw will perform a concert an hour before first pitch. McGraw has ties to baseball having earned a college scholarship playing the sport. His late father Tug McGraw won two World Series titles pitching for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.
That’s just part of the day of events planned leading up to the game. Jerry Caldwell, president and general manager of Bristol Motor Speedway, would only tease that more announcements are coming. All are designed to give fans reasons to get to the track and into their seats as early as possible.
Hosting an event like this is nothing new for Bristol. The track hosted the Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Tech in the Battle of Bristol in 2016 before a record 156,990 fans.
So track officials have experience adapting the half-mile concrete track into something new. Caldwell said preparations started before the track’s spring race April 13, won by Kyle Larson. Bristol then will have six weeks until hosting a night NASCAR Cup Series race in the playoffs on Sept. 13.
“It’s becoming very real,” Caldwell said. “We’re approaching 100 days out from the game, and we’re thrilled with the progress.”
CLEVELAND — Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas was placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a bruised right wrist sustained when he got hit by a pitch two weeks ago.
The move is retroactive to April 20.
Thomas, who was a postseason star for Cleveland in 2024, was struck on the wrist in the home opener against the Chicago White Sox on April 8. He has played in five games since, including Sunday at Pittsburgh.
Thomas said his wrist initially responded to treatment, but it began troubling him after he played over the weekend.
“I got that first jam shot base hit when I played that first day and it just kind of swelled up after that,” Thomas said. “I kind of lost some range of motion, so they just thought the best option was to try and get all that out of there and not go through that same cycle again.”
Manager Stephen Vogt hopes putting Thomas on the IL will give him time to let the injury heal correctly.
“Let’s take eight to 10 days, knock this thing out so that it’s behind us for the rest of the year,” Vogt said. “Out of fairness for him to be able to be himself and not wonder how’s it going to feel today when I wake up. We decided that with Lane, that this was the best course of action.”
Thomas has twice broken the same wrist after being hit by pitches. He went 2 for 15 with five strikeouts in five games after getting hit.
The Guardians acquired Thomas, 29, in a July trade with Washington. He struggled for much of the regular season before having his biggest moments with Cleveland in October.
Thomas hit two homers in the AL Division Series against Detroit, connecting for a grand slam in Game 5 off Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to help the Guardians advance.
To replace Thomas, the club selected the contract of infielder Will Wilson from Triple-A Columbus. The Guardians also transferred right-hander Trevor Stephan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list.
Wilson was batting .324 for the Columbus Clippers with six homers and 18 RBIs in 18 games. He homered in three of his past four games.
This is the 26-year-old’s first promotion to the majors. He’s a former first-round pick of the Los Angeles Angels, who traded him to San Francisco in 2019. Cleveland acquired Wilson in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft this past offseason.