El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment: $60 million lost, $375 million spent, little to show so far
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Salvadoran President, Nayib Bukele speaks during an event in May 2021. El Salvador become the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender in June.
Camilo Freedman | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images
It has been more than a year since El Salvador made history by becoming the first country to make bitcoin legal tender, and so far, 37-year-old resident Edgardo Acevedo has found the nationwide crypto experiment to be relatively anticlimactic.
“I don’t think anything has changed, except that the country is more recognized than before, but the economic life of Salvadorans remains the same or worse than a few years ago,” said Acevedo, a development engineer working in the capital city of San Salvador.
Acevedo, who is also known by the pseudonym Ishi Kawa, tells CNBC that while bitcoin has become a topic of conversation, adoption remains low, and he has personally found that there are very few businesses that accept the world’s biggest cryptocurrency — and even fewer Salvadorans who wish to pay in the digital token.
“What has improved is the issue of violence and crime, but economically, I can say that nothing has changed,” he said.
It has been a rocky time, with the project not living up to the grand promises made by the country’s popular and outspoken president Nayib Bukele.
The use of bitcoin in El Salvador appears to be low, as the currency has lost about 60% of its value since the experiment started and the country still faces plummeting economic growth and a high deficit. El Salvador’s debt-to-GDP ratio — a key metric used to compare what a country owes with what it generates — is set to hit nearly 87% this year, stoking fears that the nation isn’t equipped to settle its loan obligations.
Data from Bloomberg Economics shows that El Salvador tops its ranking of emerging market countries that are vulnerable to a debt default. Even as it retires some of its outstanding debts, the country’s domestic and multilateral loan obligations pose a real threat, in part because the world’s biggest lenders aren’t too keen to give cash to a country betting its future on one of the most volatile assets on the planet.
Pair these economic woes with a renewed war on gang violence and the country is barreling toward uncertainty.
“The government claims the developments as a success, but most local commentators and international watchers are underwhelmed,” Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights, told CNBC.
Bitcoin uptake appears low
When El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law came into effect Sept. 7, 2021, Jaime Garcia was hopeful that it would fix a few big problems with the way that Salvadorans send, receive and spend money.
As part of the law, prices are now sometimes listed in bitcoin, tax contributions can be paid with the digital currency, and exchanges in bitcoin will not be subject to capital gains tax. But crucially, Bukele promoted the law as a way to expand financial inclusion — which is no small thing for a country where approximately 70% of the population does not have access to traditional financial services, according to the Bitcoin Law.
To help facilitate national adoption, El Salvador launched a virtual wallet called “chivo” (Salvadoran slang for “cool”) that offers no-fee transactions, allows for quick cross-border payments, and requires only a mobile phone plus an internet connection. It aimed to bring users onboard quickly, both to scale bitcoin adoption and to offer a convenient onramp for those who had never been a part of the banking system.
Bukele tweeted in January that about 60% of the population, or 4 million people, used the chivo app, and more Salvadorans have chivo wallets than traditional bank accounts, according to a Sept. 20 research note from Deutsche Bank. Still, only 64.6% of the country has access to a mobile phone with internet, that note says.
But a report published in April by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research showed that only 20% of those who downloaded the wallet continued to use it after spending the $30 bonus. The research was based upon a “nationally representative survey” involving 1,800 households.
Garcia, who lives in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, fled El Salvador when he was 11 after rebels bombed his house, but he keeps in close touch with family and friends who stayed behind — and he sometimes sends money back home, too.
“There are pockets where bitcoin is popular, like in El Zonte, but it’s clear that adoption is not massive,” said Garcia.
“Big chains like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and most merchants at a mall will accept bitcoin — but are people using it? Not too much locally,” he said. “It’s mostly tourists using bitcoin.”
A survey by the El Salvador-based El Instituto de Opinion Publica, a public opinion think tank, found that 7 in 10 Salvadorans do not think the Bitcoin Law has benefited their family economy.
Another survey by the institute found that 76 out of 100 small and medium-size enterprises in El Salvador do not accept bitcoin payments.
“Bitcoin’s first year in effect has transcended from a commercial expectation to an irrelevant topic for traders,” said Laura Andrade, director of El Salvador’s Universidad Centroamericana, according to a CNBC translation of her Spanish-language comments.
Andrade said many large corporations are still advertising that they’re taking payments in bitcoin but are making excuses to not accept the cryptocurrency including saying their system does not work or the bitcoin wallet is out of service.
“The foregoing is evidence that this cryptocurrency, in reality, never had penetration in national commerce,” Andrade said.
“There seems to be evidence that most people used it primarily to get the free money from the government but have not used it on an ongoing basis given volatility and fees,” Ziemba said.
Meanwhile, those who did use the government’s crypto wallet reportedly had technical problems with the app. Other Salvadorans fell prey to schemes involving identity theft, in which hackers used their national ID number to open a chivo e-wallet, in order to claim the free $30 worth of bitcoin offered by the government as an incentive to join.
A survey published in March by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of El Salvador found that 86% of businesses have never made a sale in bitcoin, and only 20% of businesses take bitcoin, despite the Law’s mandate that all merchants accept the cryptocurrency.
“They gave people the wallets, they forced businesses to accept them, but essentially, in my opinion, it’s a big nothing burger,” said Frank Muci, a policy fellow at the London School of Economics, who has experience advising governments in Latin America. “Nobody really uses the app to pay in bitcoin. People that do use it, mostly use it for dollars.”
The experiment also involved building a nationwide infrastructure of bitcoin ATMs, but they’re too far away for many people to use.
Another hope for the chivo wallet was that it would help save hundreds of millions of dollars in remittance fees. Remittances, or money sent home by migrants, account for more than 20% of El Salvador’s gross domestic product, and some households receive over 60% of their income from this source alone. Incumbent services can charge 10% or more in fees for those international transfers, which can sometimes take days to arrive and require a physical pickup.
But in 2022, recent data shows that only 1.6% of remittances were sent to El Salvador via digital wallets. According to the Deutsche Bank report from September, part of the reason bitcoin transfers haven’t caught on has to do with the complications of buying and selling bitcoin for dollars. The report notes that “people who send and receive remittances frequently use informal brokers to convert local currency to and from bitcoin” and extremely volatile prices make buying and selling the cryptocurrency a complex task requiring technical know-how.
“This is a new money, a new way of doing things for a population that is very comfortable with dollars. This is a population that is largely unbanked and would rather deal with hard cash that they can see and feel,” Garcia said.
Miles Suter, the crypto product lead at Cash App, told CNBC on a panel at the Messari Mainnet conference in New York that the government’s 90-day rollout of the chivo wallet and nationwide adoption of bitcoin was “rushed” and that there are still a lot of problems.
“You shouldn’t mandate the acceptance of a specific currency,” said Suter, who spent six months in El Salvador in the runup to the passing of the Bitcoin Law. However, Suter added that the media perception is worse than how things are actually going on the ground.
“I saw and experienced lives being changed by having access to a new emerging monetary standard,” he said.
‘Sleepwalking into a debt default’
Well before Bukele wagered that bitcoin would bandage over longstanding economic vulnerabilities, the country was in a lot of trouble.
The World Bank projects that the Salvadoran economy will grow by 2.9% this year and 1.9% in 2023, down from 10.7% in 2021. But that growth itself was a bounce-back from an 8.6% contraction in 2020.
Its debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 90%, and its debt is expensive at around 5% per year versus 1.5% in the U.S. The country also has a massive deficit — with no plans to reduce it, whether through tax hikes or by substantially cutting spending.
In a research note from JPMorgan, analysts warn that El Salvador’s eurobonds have entered “distressed territory” in the last year, and S&P Global data reportedly shows that the cost to insure against a sovereign debt default is hitting multiyear highs.
Both JPMorgan and the International Monetary Fund warn the country is on an unsustainable path, with gross financing needs set to surpass 15% of GDP from 2022 forward — and public debt on track to hit 96% of GDP by 2026 under current policies.
El Salvador faces a heavy mix of multilateral and domestic debts, including imminent debt repayment deadlines in the billions of dollars, such as an $800 million eurobond that matures in January.
“The domestic debt is very large, relatively short duration and needs to be rolled over frequently,” said Muci, who previously worked at the Growth Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
El Salvador has been trying since early 2021 to secure a $1.3 billion loan from the IMF — an effort that appears to have soured over Bukele’s refusal to heed the organization’s advice to ditch bitcoin as legal tender.
Rating agencies, including Fitch, have knocked down El Salvador’s credit score, citing the uncertainty of the country’s financial future given the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. That means that it’s now even more expensive for Bukele to borrow much-needed cash.
Beyond the fact that global lenders don’t want to throw money at a country that is spending millions in tax dollars on a cryptocurrency whose price is prone to extreme volatility, the IMF’s largest shareholder, the U.S., is targeting Salvadoran officials as part of wider international sanctions against “corrupt actors.”
The president’s efforts to consolidate power have also driven up this risk premium for global lenders.
Bukele’s New Ideas party has control over the country’s Legislative Assembly. In 2021, the new assembly came under fire after it ousted the attorney general and top judges. The move prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development to pull aid from El Salvador’s national police and a public information institute and reroute the funds to civil society groups.
Additionally, El Salvador can’t print cash to shore up its finances. El Salvador ditched its local currency, the colon, in favor of the U.S. dollar. Only the Federal Reserve can print more dollars. Meanwhile, its other national currency, bitcoin, is revered for the fact that it, too, is impossible to mint out of thin air.
“One of the big issues has been the fact that the bitcoin gimmick has distracted from the fiscal and economic challenges of the country and made it more difficult for the country to access IFI lending and preferential terms,” Ziemba said.
Ziemba added that there have been some swaps with major crypto firms that allowed the country to raise cash to pay off the debt due this year, and perhaps early next year, but the long-term debt sustainability remains a challenge.
“They’ve spooked the bejesus out of financial markets and the IMF,” said Muci, who tells CNBC that nobody wants to lend money to Bukele unless it’s at “eye-gouging rates” of 20% to 25%.
“The country is sleepwalking into a debt default,” Muci said.
Tourism and presidential popularity solid
On the day the Bitcoin Law took effect, Bukele revealed that the country had begun to add bitcoin to government coffers. Since then, the price of the cryptocurrency has plunged more than 60%, stoked by rising interest rates and failed projects and bankruptcies in the industry.
The government has an unrealized paper loss on bitcoin of around $60 million. None of these losses are locked in until the country exits its bitcoin position.
In aggregate, the entire experiment and all its associated costs have only set the government back around $375 million, according to estimates. That’s not nothing — especially considering the fact that El Salvador has $7.7 billion of bonds outstanding — but to an economy of $29 billion, it is comparatively small.
El Salvador’s millennial, tech-savvy president — who once touted himself as the “world’s coolest dictator” on his Twitter bio — has tethered his political fate to the country’s crypto gamble, so he has a very big incentive to make it work in the long run and to pay off the country’s debt in the interim. Bukele faces reelection for another five-year presidential term in 2024.
At least El Salvador’s big bitcoin gamble has been a win in terms of attracting bitcoin tourists.
The tourism industry is up 30% since the Bitcoin Law took effect, according to official government estimates. The country’s tourism minister also notes that 60% of tourists now come from the U.S.
The bitcoin experiment hasn’t hurt the president’s popularity either. Bukele’s approval ratings are north of 85% — thanks in large part to his tough-on-crime approach to leading. That’s no small thing to a country that was more dangerous per capita than Afghanistan five years ago.
Suter said the project has also introduced many locals to the concept of savings, noting that before the Bitcoin Law, much of the population didn’t have a way to digitally hold their money and transact among one another.
“It was all cash — and the cash that you earned that week, you typically spent it, because there wasn’t much ability to dream of growing it through investment.”
The president upped the ante in November when he announced plans to build a “Bitcoin City” next door to the Conchagua volcano in southeastern El Salvador. The bitcoin-funded city would offer significant tax relief, and geothermal energy rolling off the adjacent volcano would power bitcoin miners.
But now, Bitcoin City is on hold, as is the $1 billion bitcoin bond sale, which was initially put on ice in March because of unfavorable market conditions.
“Ultimately, El Salvador’s problems are just tangential to currency,” Muci said.
“The plane is gonna crash eventually, if they don’t change things,” he said — “if they don’t raise taxes, cut spending, start being much more disciplined, convincing markets that they’re sustainable.”
“Bitcoin doesn’t solve any of El Salvador’s important economic problems,” he added.
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Environment
Rivian Adventure Network open to other cars soon, will be ‘awesome’ says CEO
Published
2 hours agoon
November 23, 2024By
adminWe heard a little more about Rivian’s upcoming plans to open its Rivian Adventure Network chargers at a roundtable discussion with CEO RJ Scaringe this week.
Rivian has been working on its own in-house charging network since 2020, with a focus of placing charging sites on the way to the sort of beautiful natural places that it has tied so much of its brand to.
For a primary example of this, Rivian opened its first “Charging Outpost” just outside Yosemite National Park in July, renovating an old gas station into a very cool ranger cabin-style spot to stop and refuel your car – and also yourself.
Now, it’s ready to open its network to other brands, which it announced last April. The goal was to open by the end of 2024 – which is fast approaching.
While Rivian stopped short of announcing a date for this at our roundtable discussion, it was clear that the announcement is coming “very soon.”
Scaringe told us that he was just reviewing the software that non-Rivian customers will use and that “it’s gonna be awesome.” So it sounds like there’s a plan to offer a separate app experience for non-Rivian owners, likely through the Rivian app (thus ballooning the number of apps that every EV owner needs to have… we need to do something about that).
To this end, Rivian did purchase A Better Route Planner (ABRP) last June, one of the more popular charge planning apps for EVs. This has surely been a factor in Rivian’s app development.
Scaringe told us that RAN has now expanded to a total of 91 sites and around 700 chargers – which he says is around 4% of the size of Tesla’s Supercharger network, but that RAN has maintained high uptime as it scales. Scaringe said that if you would have asked him 6-7 years ago, he would have expected more successful third-party charging companies by now., but that now, out of all the charging networks out there, there are “only two great networks – and only one great scaled network,” namely Tesla Superchargers.
The others, which aren’t owned by an EV manufacturer, just aren’t as good. RAN and Tesla have ~99% uptime, where Scaringe said that other networks have sub-70% or even sub-50% uptime (this may be an underestimate – or maybe not – but the point stands that every EV driver can tell you Tesla is the gold standard here).
So Rivian sees it as important to electrification to offer another great network that can help give drivers more choices, more availability, and high reliability.
But how will that interface with the NACS transition? Rivian was early to hop aboard and announce that it will shift to using NACS and ship adapters to its owners, though its current vehicles still have native CCS ports even post-refresh (the Korean brands will be the first to offer native NACS ports on their vehicles).
We were quite interested in the timeline of who started the discussions to shift to NACS, and Scaringe told us that it was pretty much universal across the industry that as soon as Tesla released its NACS whitepaper calling it an open standard, car companies started talking amongst themselves about the potential of finally harmonizing on a single charging standard.
As of now, Rivian is still installing CCS cables, not NACS ones. It sounded like it intends to keep doing this for the foreseeable future, and that “the charging network will catch up” as cars transition to NACS. Until then, people can use adapters – and “in the long term, everything will go to NACS” as it’s just a better standard, and whatever remaining CCS cars exist will just end up using adapters.
This seems a little strange to make cars that aren’t (natively) supported on your own charging network, but Scaringe said that that’s the benefit of owning the network – cables are not too hard to swap out. So it would be easy to just change out the cable heads on existing chargers without having to build new sites or install new cabinets.
We asked whether they’d try a dual-charging-head strategy, with NACS and CCS heads on each cabinet, but it didn’t sound like that was in the plans. The cables will, at least, be long enough to reach both sides of the vehicle – an important consideration given the lack of standardization of charging port locations on EVs, as networks start opening up to multiple brands.
So – we’re looking forward to hearing more about Rivian’s efforts to open RAN, which ought to bear fruit quite soon, if the “end of the year” schedule holds. Stay tuned, as we’re sure there’s more news to come soon.
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Environment
How tech bros bought ‘America’s most pro-crypto Congress ever’
Published
3 hours agoon
November 23, 2024By
admin
Bernie Moreno, Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Ohio, attends a campaign event in Holland, Ohio, on Saturday, October 26, 2024. Moreno is running against Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Prior to announcing his Senate candidacy in April 2023, Bernie Moreno was a political no name. A former car salesman in the Cleveland area, his only prior experience in politics was a losing bid for Ohio’s other Senate seat in 2022.
Moreno has since accomplished the once unthinkable.
On Nov. 5, as part of the election that swept Donald Trump back into the White House, Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, who was first elected to the House in 1992, before winning his Senate seat in 2006 and chairing the powerful Banking Committee since 2021.
Moreno’s rise from unsung Ohio businessman to prominent political leader was no accident. His campaign was backed by $40 million from the cryptocurrency industry as part of a highly targeted effort to get friendly candidates elected and, perhaps more importantly, its critics removed. Moreno’s victory was one of the Senate seats Republicans flipped to take control of the chamber.
In total, crypto-related PACs and other groups tied to the industry reeled in over $245 million, according to Federal Election Commission data. Crypto accounted for nearly half of all corporate dollars that flowed into the election, according to nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen. Advocacy group Stand With Crypto Alliance, which Coinbase launched last year, developed a grading system for House and Senate races across the country as a way to help determine where money should be spent.
Crypto execs, investors and evangelists saw the election as existential to an industry that spent the past four years simultaneously trying to grow up while being repeatedly beaten down. Nearly 300 pro-crypto lawmakers will take seats in the House and Senate, according to Stand With Crypto, giving the sector unprecedented influence over the legislative agenda.
The crypto political lobby worked so well this cycle because it made something complicated, like campaign finance, simple: Raise a ton of cash from a handful of donors and buy ad space in battleground states to either support candidates who back crypto or smear the candidates who don’t. It also required thinking of candidates as a bit of a binary: They were either with the industry or against it.
Crypto companies and their executives mobilized rapidly, and they successfully figured out how to deploy their cash through a sophisticated ad machine across the country. They also took cues from what big tech got wrong. Rather than spending hundreds of millions of dollars on lobbying legislators post-election, the crypto industry invested in targeting their opponents ahead of the election so they wouldn’t have to deal with them at all the next few years.
For over a year, Moreno was grilled by Silicon Valley heavy hitters like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and David Sacks about blockchain technology, digital asset policy and the shifting terrain of global finance.
“They didn’t just jump in head first,” Moreno said, describing the scores of meetings that stretched back to his run in the primary. “We had to build a lot of trust.”
Moreno also met with Coinbase co-founders Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam as well as policy chief Faryar Shirzad. Armstrong and Ehrsam did not respond to CNBC’s request, through Coinbase, for comment about the meetings.
Coinbase is the largest digital asset exchange in the U.S. and has been battling the Securities and Exchange Commission in court for over a year. The company was the crypto kingmaker in the 2024 cycle, giving more than $75 million to a super PAC called Fairshake. It was one of the top spending committees of any industry this cycle and exclusively gave to pro-crypto candidates running for Congress. Fairshake’s candidates won virtually every race that it funded in the general election.
“Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics,” Coinbase’s Armstrong wrote on X following Moreno’s victory.
As the price of bitcoin has multiplied by about sixfold in the past four years, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has taken major crypto players like Coinbase and Ripple to court for allegedly selling unregistered securities and has avoided working with companies to develop new specialized regulations.
Meanwhile, Sen. Brown sided with the expressly anti-crypto Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in targeting crypto for allegedly funding terrorist organizations, including Hamas. Brown became more vocal in calling for crackdowns of the industry after the failure of crypto exchange FTX in late 2022.
As FTX was spiraling into bankruptcy, Brown on Nov. 10 retweeted a post from the Senate Banking Committee calling the event “a loud warning bell that cryptocurrencies can fail” and can “have a ripple effect on consumers and other parts of our financial system.”
The bipartisan Fairshake won all but three races in the general election, spending big on Republicans and Democrats gunning for key seats. Protect Progress, a PAC affiliated with Fairshake, gave more than $10 million apiece to Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona and Michigan. Both won. Defend American Jobs, another one of Fairshake’s affiliated PACs, spent more than $3 million to support Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, who will take the former seat of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin when the new session gets underway in 2025.
In California, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter lost a Senate primary after Fairshake spent more than $10 million on ads against her.
“I was, like, ‘What the heck is Fairshake?'” Porter told The New Yorker.
How tech bros made their pick
Those vetting Moreno wanted to understand what he would do differently than the current administration and regulatory regime, the senator-elect told CNBC in an interview.
“These are people who know how to vet investments, know how to vet people and they took that same discipline” with me, Moreno said.
It helped that he’d built a blockchain startup, a company called Champ Titles that digitizes automobile ticketing and registration.
“What they didn’t want was to put time, effort and energy behind somebody who, at the end, would be a disappointment,” Moreno said.
A spokesperson for Andreessen and Horowitz, who are co-founders of a venture firm bearing their names, declined to comment. Sacks, founder of Craft Ventures, didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for an interview.
Coinbase’s Shirzad met Moreno over breakfast in Washington in the spring. Moreno wasn’t an expert on the details of the policy issues he’d be pursuing but had a clear understanding of crypto technology and how it could be applied, Shirzad told CNBC in an interview.
“It was a really great meeting of minds between me as a policy guy and him as kind of a business guy that saw the potential of the technology,” Shirzad said.
Moreno was out of cash after spending all he had on a tough and expensive primary, said David McIntosh, an early backer of Moreno’s Senate bid and president of the Club for Growth, a conservative organization that focuses on American economic issues. Fairshake played a crucial role for Moreno’s campaign starting in the summer, McIntosh said.
Moreno’s victory over Brown “sent a really strong signal to Washington that the voters are going to support candidates who are pro-blockchain,” McIntosh said.
McIntosh noted that the Club for Growth spent $6.5 million to help Moreno with advertising in the primary through its different super PACs, including the Bitcoin Freedom Fund.
Brown’s office didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
Brown told Politico he hasn’t ruled out running for Vice President-elect JD Vance’s open Senate seat in Ohio, which will be filled by special election in 2026.
Moreno benefited from branding himself as the “change” candidate while Brown “became a defender of the status quo,” Shirzad said.
“Crypto thematically is a change issue,” Shirzad said. “It appeals to not only a younger demographic, but it also appeals to voters who want to change.”
Fairshake declined to comment on whether it would spend to block another Brown Senate run, but the super PAC has already raised $78 million for the 2026 midterms.
“We stuck to our core strategy from Day 1, supported pro-crypto candidates and opposed those who played politics with jobs and innovation, and won,” Fairshake told CNBC in a statement.
‘Most pro-crypto Congress ever’
The past two election cycles featured spending from the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March for stealing more than $8 billion worth of customer money through FTX.
This year’s contributor list was more robust but saw large sums of funding come from companies that have been at odds with SEC Chair Gensler for years. That includes Coinbase and blockchain giant Ripple Labs. Prominent venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, which has a large portfolio of crypto companies, was one of the other primary contributors.
A lot of crypto’s big names also gave significantly in 2024.
FEC filings show Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss were among the largest individual crypto donors this election cycle, giving a combined $10.1 million. Top executives from Ripple contributed millions, led by billionaire founder Chris Larsen, who gave around $12 million this cycle.
Coinbase CEO Armstrong gave over $1.3 million to a mix of PACs including Fairshake and JD Vance for Senate Inc. He also gave directly to Democrats and Republicans running for House and Senate seats. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal attended at least two Trump fundraisers, including one in Nashville, Tennessee, on the sidelines of the biggest bitcoin event of the year.
Kraken Chairman Jesse Powell donated over $1 million to the Trump campaign.
Other individual crypto contributors include ex-Bitfinex strategy chief Phil Potter (over $1.6 million), Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani ($878,600), Paradigm co-founder Fred Ehrsam ($735,400), Union Square Ventures partner Fred Wilson ($1,4 million), Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla ($198,500), BitGo CEO Mike Belshe ($119,825), Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko ($67,100), and Xapo Bank founder Wences Casares ($374,899).
This week, Armstrong reportedly met with the president-elect to discuss appointments. Within a day, conversations swirled about the potential for the White House’s first crypto czar. By the end of the week, SEC Chair and longtime crypto foe Gensler, whose term doesn’t expire until June 2026, announced he was retiring on inauguration day.
One of Trump’s promises to his crypto fans on the campaign was that he would fire the SEC head and choose crypto-friendly regulators if elected. Gensler may have taken a look at the pressure that faces him across Washington and decided it just wasn’t worth trying to stick it out.
“Welcome to America’s most pro-crypto Congress ever,” Armstrong wrote on X on Nov. 5.
Environment
Data centers powering artificial intelligence could use more electricity than entire cities
Published
4 hours agoon
November 23, 2024By
admin
An Amazon Web Services data center in Ashburn, Virginia, US, on Sunday, July 28, 2024.
Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The power needs of artificial intelligence and cloud computing are growing so large that individual data center campuses could soon use more electricity than some cities, and even entire U.S. states, according to companies developing the facilities.
The electricity consumption of data centers has exploded along with their increasingly critical role in the economy in the past 10 years, housing servers that power the applications businesses and consumers rely on for daily tasks.
Now, with the advent of artificial intelligence, data centers are growing so large that finding enough power to drive them and enough suitable land to house them will become increasingly difficult, the developers say. The facilities could increasingly demand a gigawatt or more of power — one billion watts — or about twice the residential electricity consumption of the Pittsburgh area last year.
Technology companies are in a “race of a lifetime to global dominance” in artificial intelligence, said Ali Fenn, president of Lancium, a company that secures land and power for data centers in Texas. “It’s frankly about national security and economic security,” she said. “They’re going to keep spending” because there’s no more profitable place to deploy capital.
Renewable energy alone won’t be sufficient to meet their power needs. Natural gas will have to play a role, developers say, which will slow progress toward meeting carbon dioxide emissions targets.
(See here for which stocks are helping to fix the nation’s power grid.)
Regardless of where the power comes from, data centers are now at a scale where they have started “tapping out against the existing utility infrastructure,” said Nat Sahlstrom, chief energy officer at Tract, a Denver-based company that secures land, infrastructure and power resources for such facilities.
And “the funnel of available of land in this country that’s industrial zone land that can fit the data center use case — it’s becoming more and more constrained,” said Sahlstrom, who previously led Amazon’s energy, water and sustainability teams.
Beyond Virginia
As land and power grow more limited, data centers are expanding into new markets outside the long-established global hub in northern Virginia, Sahlstrom said. The electric grid that serves Virginia is facing looming reliability problems. Power demand is expected to surge, while supply is falling due to the retirement of coal- and some natural gas-powered plants.
Tract, for example, has assembled more than 23,000 acres of land for data center development across the U.S., with large holdings in Maricopa County, Arizona — home to Phoenix — and Storey County, Nevada, near Reno.
Tract recently bought almost 2,100 acres in Buckeye, Arizona with plans to develop the land into one of the largest data center campuses in the country. The privately-held company is working with utilities to secure up to 1.8 gigawatts of power for the site to support as many as 40 individual data centers.
For context, a data center campus with peak demand of one gigawatt is roughly equivalent to the average annual consumption of about 700,000 homes, or a city of around 1.8 million people, according to a CNBC analysis using data from the Department of Energy and Census Bureau.
A data center campus that size would use more power in one year than retail electric sales in Alaska, Rhode Island or Vermont, according to Department of Energy data.
A gigawatt-size data center campus running at even the lower end of peak demand is still roughly comparable to about 330,000 households, or a city of more than 800,000 people — about the population of San Francisco.
The average size of individual data centers operated by the major tech companies is currently around 40 megawatts, but a growing pipeline of campuses of 250 megawatts or more is coming, according to data from the Boston Consulting Group.
The U.S. is expected see a growing number of data center campuses of 500 megawatts or more, equivalent to half a gigawatt, in the 2030s through mid-2040s, according to the BCG data. Facilities of that size are comparable to about 350,000 homes, according to CNBC’s analysis.
“Certainly the average size of the data centers is increasing at a rapid pace from now to 2030,” said Vivian Lee, managing director and partner at BCG.
Community impact
Texas has become an increasingly attractive market due to a less burdensome regulatory environment and abundant energy resources that are more easily tailored to specific sites, Sahlstrom said. “Texas is probably the world’s best experiment lab to deploy your own power solution,” the energy officer said.
Houston-based Lancium set up shop in 2017 with the idea of bringing large electric loads closer to abundant renewable energy resources in west and central Texas, said Fenn, the company’s president. Originally focused on cryptocurrency mining, Lancium later shifted its focus to providing power for artificial intelligence with the advent of ChatGPT in late 2022.
Today, Lancium has five data center campuses in various stages of development. A 1,000-acre campus in Abilene is expected to open in the first quarter of 2025 with 250 megawatts of power that will ramp up to 1.2 gigawatts in 2026.
The minimum power requirement for Lancium’s data center customers is now a gigawatt, and future plans involve scaling them up to between three and five gigawatts, Fenn said.
For data centers that size, developers have to ensure that electricity costs in neighboring communities don’t rise as a consequence and that grid reliability is maintained, Fenn said. Pairing such facilities with new power generation is crucial, she said.
“The data centers have to partner with utilities, the system operators, the communities, to really establish that these things are assets to the grid and not liabilities to the grid,” Fenn said. “Nobody’s going to keep approving” such developments if they push up residential and commercial electric rates.
Renewables not enough
Data center campuses run by publicly-traded Equinix are rising to several hundred megawatts from 100- to 200 megawatts, said Jon Lin, general manager for data center services at the company. Equinix is one of the largest data center operators in the world with 260 facilities spread across 72 metropolitan areas in the U.S. and abroad.
Developers prefer carbon-free renewable energy, but they also see solar and wind alone as unable to meet current demand due to their reliance on changing weather conditions.
Some of the most critical workloads for the world’s economy, such as financial exchanges, run at data centers operated by Equinix, Lin said. Equinix’s data centers are online more than 99% of the time and outages are out of the question, the executive said.
“The firmness of the power is still incredibly important for these data centers, and so doing that solely off of local renewables is candidly just not an option,” Lin said.
The major technology companies are some of the largest purchasers of renewable power in the U.S., but they are increasingly turning to nuclear in search of more reliable sources of electricity. Microsoft is supporting the restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania through a power purchase agreement. Amazon and Alphabet’s Google are investing in small nuclear reactors.
But building new nuclear reactors is expensive and fraught with delays. Two new reactors in Georgia recently came online years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget.
In the short run, natural gas will fuel much of the power demanded by data centers, Lancium’s Fenn said. Gas is the main, short-term power source providing the reliability these facilities require, Boston Consulting Group’s Lee said.
Investments could be made in new gas generation that adds carbon capture and battery storage technology over time to mitigate the environmental impact, Lee said.
The industry hopes that gas demand will taper off as renewables expand, battery storage costs come down and AI helps data centers operate more efficiently, Fenn said. But in the near term, there’s no question that data center expansion is disrupting technology companies’ emissions targets, she said.
“Hopefully, it’s a short term side step,” Fenn said of stepped-up natural gas usage. “What I’m seeing amongst our data center partners, our hyperscale conversations, is we cannot let this have an adverse effect on the environmental goals.”
Note: CNBC analysis assumes a data center campus is continuously utilizing 85% of its peak demand of a gigawatt throughout the year, for a total consumption of 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours. Analysis uses national averages for household electricity consumption from EIA and household size from Census Bureau.
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